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Friday, May 31, 2013

Megdal: How Domonic Is Dominating

Plus…The Domonic One has 2 more taters tonight.

This may come as a surprise if you’ve watched him play lately, but Domonic Brown — Phillies outfielder and current team leader in home runs with 13 — was having trouble hitting a single ball out of the park during batting practice Thursday afternoon before a game against the Red Sox.

Make no mistake: The ball was carrying in the late-day heat, teammates were reaching the small pockets of early gatherers at Citizens Bank Park with regularity. But Brown, who certainly looked like he was replicating that leaner lefty stroke that had the Phillies hoping their seemingly eternal prospect, now 25, had figured out how to regularly punish major league pitching, kept coming up short.

There are plenty of theories as to why the young outfielder, who wasn’t even a slugger by trade in the minor leagues (58 home runs in 2,274 plate appearances, and a season high of 20) now has 13 home runs in 202 major league plate appearances in 2013.

Probably the most convincing answer is his rate of home runs on fly balls. Heading into Thursday, Brown was producing a fly ball on 32.7 percent of his balls in play, right around his career rate. But 26 percent of his fly balls end up over the wall, which is roughly double his career rate, and fifth in all of baseball. Chances are most of these rates are outliers: Only Adam Dunn topped 26 percent last season.

So it was surprising to see Brown driving the ball in batting practice, prior to the final game of a series in which he’d already hit four home runs, and consistently hit the warning track.

Repoz Posted: May 31, 2013 at 09:19 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies

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   1. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 31, 2013 at 09:28 PM (#4457422)
13 homers and 9 walks. From a guy that nobody thought was a power hitter. Even when Dom finally gets some results it leads to nothing but pessimistic outlooks.
   2. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 31, 2013 at 09:35 PM (#4457427)
I don't know who thought Brown wasn't a power hitter, but back when he was in AA ball he came closer to hitting the roller coaster out past the right field wall in Altoona than anyone I've personally seen. He just destroyed the ball the few games I saw him play there. He had huge power.
   3. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 31, 2013 at 09:39 PM (#4457433)
Well it says right in the article, he had 58 home runs in over 2,000 minor league PAs.
   4. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: May 31, 2013 at 09:47 PM (#4457451)
Yeah, I didn't hear about him until he became a fashionable sleeper a couple years back, but everything I heard about was his power potential. And he's not exactly a superstar right now. He's a third of the way into the season and has 1 WAR. That's a good player, but he's 25 already. Unless he goes David Ortiz on the league, he'll be a solid complimentary piece on a good team, but he's not going to be a superstar.

eta: Of course, if there's only 58 HR in 2000 AB, I'm guessing he was one of those "He's definitely going to grow into that power" guys.
   5. DA Baracus Posted: May 31, 2013 at 10:12 PM (#4457495)
13 HR, 0 BB this month. Enjoy it while it lasts.
   6. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 31, 2013 at 10:12 PM (#4457498)
Right, I'm sorry. He was a power prospect, in that the idea was that he will be a power hitter because of his body type and his, you know, power. However, he didn't really hit for power in the minors. And he's sort of not really hitting for power now either, since it's an anomaly that this many of his fly balls are going out of the park. He has considerable speed, but only 7 doubles this year.

BTW, Michael Young has totally fallen apart in May. His OPS is exactly half of what it was in March/April. Somehow he's being propped up by an incredible batting eye against LHP. That Howard/Young platoon at first and Kevin Frandsen everyday at third is still going to happen, I know it.
   7. HowardMegdal Posted: May 31, 2013 at 11:42 PM (#4457570)
Two more tonight. Lord knows he can drive the ball. Really curious as to how his season goes from here.
   8. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: May 31, 2013 at 11:57 PM (#4457582)
he was interviewed on the radio today and he said something to the effect of:

[i'm not missing my pitch because i'm locked in. other times, when i'm not as locked in, i'll foul off the pitches i'm crushing now and end up drawing a walk, so i'm not really worried about it]


one more thing, it's worth pointing out that he had a BB% over 10 as a minor leaguer, and plate discipline was actually his greatest strength as a hitter pretty much right up until may 2013


one more thing, i don't actually know what this is worth, but i'm looking at baseball-reference and it has his HR/FB rate at 18%.

one more thing, michael young has grounded into 12 DPs in 200 PAs, and his B-ref WAR only has him dinged for -2 runs. i would think that warrants a more significant deduction.
   9. Sean Forman Posted: June 01, 2013 at 12:28 AM (#4457590)
Depends what the league average is in the same number of opps as he has. It's probably 8-9, so he's only adding 3-4 more outs. Note taht the DP #'s are for the value of the one out added or lost. Not the value of both outs. His batting runs already pay for the one out. DP Runs are really just when a player is in a DP situation and hit a GB, how well do they avoid the DP.

sean
   10. HowardMegdal Posted: June 01, 2013 at 12:39 AM (#4457594)
That's odd- here's where I got the 26%. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3154&position=OF
   11. The District Attorney Posted: June 01, 2013 at 12:56 AM (#4457599)
Really should have gone with "domonating."
   12. Jose Canusee Posted: June 02, 2013 at 03:44 PM (#4458459)
He's just afraid of being called an idiot for spelling it that way

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