Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Megdal: Jonathon Niese struggles with his nemeses, August and September

The big problem with Niese over the past two seasons has been durability as the season has worn on. So Tuesday night’s six-inning, four-run performance, just one start removed from getting knocked around by Arizona, is raising alarm bells. This is precisely the point in the past two seasons when Niese has worn down as well.

Through July 22, Niese had an E.R.A. of 3.59. In his three starts since, it is 5.21. Now, three starts are far from definitive. But consider his 2010 and 2011 seasons for context.

Through July 21, 2011, Niese had an E.R.A. of 3.73, with very similar peripherals to his 2012 season. He then posted a 6.82 E.R.A. over his next six starts, as the Mets gradually moved from not worrying about Niese’s fatigue to shutting him down at the end of August.

In 2010, a similar deterioration took hold. Through July 27, 2010, Niese had an E.R.A. of 3.43. He got knocked out in the fifth inning on August 1, part of a 5.45 E.R.A. over his final 12 starts. Even this doesn’t fully capture his late-season futility, since he rallied for a few good starts in August before a ghastly 7.57 E.R.A. over his final seven starts.

The problem with a pitcher who is only a stellar rotation member for his first 120 innings is obvious. For one thing, it means that any eventually contending Mets team would be unable to rely on him in August and September, let alone October, should the Mets make the playoffs.

Repoz Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:48 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4203589)
But that probably won't happen until Niese is collecting Social Security, so...
   2. PreservedFish Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4203593)
Niese is, for the first time in his career, pitching to his FIP. His .274 BABIP is an easy career best.
   3. NTP Nate Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4203599)
I've always thought August and Everything After is overrated anyway.
   4. SG Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4203600)
Niese's FIP peripherals were remarkably consistent in the different selective endpoints in the intro, so unless one of his last starts in July suddenly causes him to lose any ability to suppress the BABIP against him I'm not sure there's anything close to a conclusive pattern here.

FIP through July 21, 2011: 3.40
FIP after: 3.35

FIP through July 27, 2010: 4.07
FIP after: 4.12
   5. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4203611)
I've always thought August and Everything After is overrated anyway.


False.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4203625)
False.

Is it false because nobody actually thinks it's good?
   7. Walt Davis Posted: August 08, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4203718)
Newbie Niese's nemisis's nemeses not necessarily new

meh, just bad alliteration, not a tongue twister.
   8. BWV 1129 Posted: August 08, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4203808)
Sounds like I picked the right time to add Niese to my fantasy team.
   9. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4203844)
Is it false because nobody actually thinks it's good?

9-year-old me considers them words to be fightin' words.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Phil Birnbaum
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 7-29-2014
(43 - 11:18pm, Jul 29)
Last: Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes

NewsblogESPN: Twins Sign "Out Of Nowhere" Prospect
(2 - 11:18pm, Jul 29)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogOTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game
(3556 - 11:18pm, Jul 29)
Last: Joe Kehoskie

NewsblogWhich Players Will Be Most Affected by the Hall of Fame’s New Rules?
(7 - 11:03pm, Jul 29)
Last: pthomas

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread July, 2014
(508 - 11:02pm, Jul 29)
Last: frannyzoo

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1957 Discussion
(11 - 11:00pm, Jul 29)
Last: MrC

NewsblogFull Count » Tim Kurkjian on MFB: ‘I’m going to say that Jon Lester is not going to be traded’
(30 - 10:53pm, Jul 29)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogMASN TV Contract Pits Selig vs Nationals vs Orioles
(20 - 10:51pm, Jul 29)
Last: Curse of the Andino

NewsblogSOE: Minor League Manhood - A first-hand account of masculine sports culture run amok.
(10 - 10:43pm, Jul 29)
Last: Der-K and the statistical werewolves.

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014
(1014 - 10:07pm, Jul 29)
Last: robinred

NewsblogHoward: David Ortiz shaping up to become first steroid era Teflon slugger
(26 - 10:06pm, Jul 29)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogTrader Jack? As Seattle's GM struggles to complete deals, some rival executives wonder | FOX Sports
(58 - 10:02pm, Jul 29)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogValencia traded to Toronto
(12 - 9:52pm, Jul 29)
Last: Davo Dozier

NewsblogABC News: ‘Capital Games’: How Congress Saved the Baseball Hall of Fame
(46 - 9:38pm, Jul 29)
Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit

NewsblogBarney + cash to Dodgers for PTBNL
(28 - 8:56pm, Jul 29)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.1960 seconds
52 querie(s) executed