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Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Megdal: Jonathon Niese struggles with his nemeses, August and September

The big problem with Niese over the past two seasons has been durability as the season has worn on. So Tuesday night’s six-inning, four-run performance, just one start removed from getting knocked around by Arizona, is raising alarm bells. This is precisely the point in the past two seasons when Niese has worn down as well.

Through July 22, Niese had an E.R.A. of 3.59. In his three starts since, it is 5.21. Now, three starts are far from definitive. But consider his 2010 and 2011 seasons for context.

Through July 21, 2011, Niese had an E.R.A. of 3.73, with very similar peripherals to his 2012 season. He then posted a 6.82 E.R.A. over his next six starts, as the Mets gradually moved from not worrying about Niese’s fatigue to shutting him down at the end of August.

In 2010, a similar deterioration took hold. Through July 27, 2010, Niese had an E.R.A. of 3.43. He got knocked out in the fifth inning on August 1, part of a 5.45 E.R.A. over his final 12 starts. Even this doesn’t fully capture his late-season futility, since he rallied for a few good starts in August before a ghastly 7.57 E.R.A. over his final seven starts.

The problem with a pitcher who is only a stellar rotation member for his first 120 innings is obvious. For one thing, it means that any eventually contending Mets team would be unable to rely on him in August and September, let alone October, should the Mets make the playoffs.

Repoz Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:48 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4203589)
But that probably won't happen until Niese is collecting Social Security, so...
   2. PreservedFish Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4203593)
Niese is, for the first time in his career, pitching to his FIP. His .274 BABIP is an easy career best.
   3. NTP Nate Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4203599)
I've always thought August and Everything After is overrated anyway.
   4. Most doorknobs are on the right side of the doors Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4203600)
Niese's FIP peripherals were remarkably consistent in the different selective endpoints in the intro, so unless one of his last starts in July suddenly causes him to lose any ability to suppress the BABIP against him I'm not sure there's anything close to a conclusive pattern here.

FIP through July 21, 2011: 3.40
FIP after: 3.35

FIP through July 27, 2010: 4.07
FIP after: 4.12
   5. Rickey! No. You move. Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4203611)
I've always thought August and Everything After is overrated anyway.


False.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4203625)
False.

Is it false because nobody actually thinks it's good?
   7. Walt Davis Posted: August 08, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4203718)
Newbie Niese's nemisis's nemeses not necessarily new

meh, just bad alliteration, not a tongue twister.
   8. BWV 1129 Posted: August 08, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4203808)
Sounds like I picked the right time to add Niese to my fantasy team.
   9. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: August 08, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4203844)
Is it false because nobody actually thinks it's good?

9-year-old me considers them words to be fightin' words.

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