The Realistic Positive Scenario: Wright returns to form, but Bay doesn’t. Torres is effective, but misses some time due to injury. Duda is an absolute mess in right field, but finds detente with his glove after the Mets call up Kirk Nieuwenhuis and move Duda to left field. Tejada and Thole lock in their gains from 2011, improve a bit. Murphy is error-prone but a solid bat. Davis plays 140 games at a level between 2010, when he was solid, and 2011, when he was a star before his injury.
On the mound, Santana makes 25 starts, but command comes and goes, and his ERA hovers around 4. Dickey is solid, Niese takes a step forward, Pelfrey is eminently hittable and Gee’s ERA lands around 4.50. The bullpen performs like a collection of known mediocrities, with Parnell stepping forward and Batista largely unneeded. Dickey’s book is well-reviewed and a niche buy.
Result: 74 wins.
The Doomsday Scenario: David Wright, hobbled by that torn abdominal muscle suffered this spring, is on and off the field all year. Jason Bay continues to hit terribly, and stays remarkably healthy and on the field. Torres struggles with performance and health. Lucas Duda is haunted at night by the ghost of Roberto Clemente until he agrees to stop shaming the idea of right field, and is moved to first base in June, since Davis hasn’t managed to hold up after avoiding surgery on his injured leg from last season. Tejada hit .220, and gets a “Jose, Jose Jose Jose” chant from fans that is not meant to be nice. Daniel Murphy, already felled twice by season-ending injuries at second base, suffers through Kirby Kyle’s fate from Radio Days. Oddly, in this scenario, Thole still hits .270.
As for the pitchers, Santana never reaches 100 pitches, and rehab does little but provide brief bits of hope in fits and starts. Dickey has a down season a la Tim Wakefield, and his ERA balloons to 5. Niese gets hurt, Pelfrey’s ERA jumps to 5-plus thanks to the awful defense behind him, and Dillon Gee struggles all season. Dickey’s book gets the James Frey treatment.
Result: 50 wins.
Repoz
Posted: April 05, 2012 at 02:25 PM |
13 comment(s)
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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 05, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4098511)Disappointment. Agony. Disgust.
I'll take the over.
...That actually made me queasy. Or maybe it was lunch.
Ouch.
If Santana were to have the absolute best-case recovery (3.50 ERA, 180 IP), and Wright were to have the best-case reasonable bounce-back (.290, 30 HR), and Ike Davis/Lucas Duda/Daniel Murphy/Ruben Tejada could all play to their top projections, this would be a great team.
Give Dickey have a repeat of 2010, and give Niese half the difference between his ERA and xFIP, and you'd have a rotation with about 600 innings of 115-120 ERA+ in it.
There is NO way all of those things happen. But if they did, the Mets cruise to 90 wins.
First game, correct so far.
If what his Happy Recap scenario envisions takes place they'd win 95 games not 85.
Not gonna happen of course...
I see them as a true talent 70-75 win team, teams like that can stumble into 80-85 wins every now and then (1983 Royals, 2009 Mariners) either from pythag luck, or random bunching of good years- or a combination of both
Yeah. A positive scenario has them at 74 wins? They had 79 wins by pythag last year, and RLYW's PECOTA simulations gave them 75 wins. I think 74 is a lot closer to the baseline.
I don't expect Santana to do more than this, but I don't understand how this is the absolute best-case scenario. Santana is a HOF-quality pitcher, and those numbers are less than what Dickey put up last year. He's bested that ERA every year with the Mets, even as his Ks and velocity have tumbled down, and that in the higher offensive context. This looks more like the "realistic positive scenario."
And with the day off today, they'll be there until at least Saturday. On pace for 162 wins and a 0.00 ERA. Let's roll with it while it lasts...
There's a thread for that...
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