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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, April 05, 2012Megdal: Opening Day! Just what are these 2012 New York Mets capable of?As Eric Simon tweeted…“TRAID DAIVID WRONG”.
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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 05, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4098511)Disappointment. Agony. Disgust.
I'll take the over.
...That actually made me queasy. Or maybe it was lunch.
Ouch.
If Santana were to have the absolute best-case recovery (3.50 ERA, 180 IP), and Wright were to have the best-case reasonable bounce-back (.290, 30 HR), and Ike Davis/Lucas Duda/Daniel Murphy/Ruben Tejada could all play to their top projections, this would be a great team.
Give Dickey have a repeat of 2010, and give Niese half the difference between his ERA and xFIP, and you'd have a rotation with about 600 innings of 115-120 ERA+ in it.
There is NO way all of those things happen. But if they did, the Mets cruise to 90 wins.
First game, correct so far.
If what his Happy Recap scenario envisions takes place they'd win 95 games not 85.
Not gonna happen of course...
I see them as a true talent 70-75 win team, teams like that can stumble into 80-85 wins every now and then (1983 Royals, 2009 Mariners) either from pythag luck, or random bunching of good years- or a combination of both
Yeah. A positive scenario has them at 74 wins? They had 79 wins by pythag last year, and RLYW's PECOTA simulations gave them 75 wins. I think 74 is a lot closer to the baseline.
I don't expect Santana to do more than this, but I don't understand how this is the absolute best-case scenario. Santana is a HOF-quality pitcher, and those numbers are less than what Dickey put up last year. He's bested that ERA every year with the Mets, even as his Ks and velocity have tumbled down, and that in the higher offensive context. This looks more like the "realistic positive scenario."
And with the day off today, they'll be there until at least Saturday. On pace for 162 wins and a 0.00 ERA. Let's roll with it while it lasts...
There's a thread for that...
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