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Friday, September 30, 2011

Megdal: The future just happened: Jose Reyes and the season Mets fans have been waiting for

Cold hearted white orb that rules the night…

It simply never occurred to anyone that a player as spectacular as Jose Reyes would end up leaving New York for a bigger paycheck elsewhere. New York teams aren’t supposed to let popular, homegrown stars go.

Which is why the Mets’ season finale at Citi Field on Wednesday—and quite likely Reyes’ final game in a Mets uniform—was so shocking.

...Finally, in 2011, Reyes became the star everyone expected him to be. He won a batting title, something no Met had ever done.

And, sadly, that may have been it. The future that Mets fans have been waiting for all these years has come and gone.

Between the top and bottom of the fifth inning of Wednesday’s game, a couple in their 20s stood in front of one of the picnic tables near the Shea Bridge, each one wearing a Jose Reyes t-shirt. The man’s arm was around the woman, and they stared at the field like it was a sunset, not moving, and not saying a word.

Repoz Posted: September 30, 2011 at 10:47 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, history, mets, projections, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Bob Tufts Posted: October 01, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3946949)
Cold hearted (white) orb that rules the night…


Move the Moody Blues from the R&R Hall of Merit to the Hall of Fame!
   2. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: October 01, 2011 at 01:51 AM (#3947002)
Are the Moody Blues not in the R&R HoF? Really?

Good to know that its veracity is up there with the various sporting HoFs.
   3. Sam M. Posted: October 01, 2011 at 03:40 AM (#3947087)
Speaking of the future, the Mets just got their first bit of good news from BA's annual rankings of the Top 20 in each minor league, and it wasn't even from a league in which the Mets have a farm club. Today, BA ranked the California League, and ex-Giants' prospect Zack Wheeler, whom we got for Beltran, was ranked the # 4 prospect in the league. The scouting report on him was very positive, and even mentioned that he displayed significantly improved command after he joined St. Lucie (and reverted to his former delivery) post-trade.

Before Wheeler, none of the Mets' prospects in the leagues they had ranked thus far (the GCL, the Appy, and the NY-P Leagues) had done very well at all. Pitcher Rafael Montero barely made the list at # 20 in the GCL, and SS Danny Muno checked in at # 18 in the NY-P (even though they say he doesn't project as a major league SS, but more as a 2B). That was it. Still to come are the FSL, Eastern League, and International League, where some of our other prospects will, I'm sure, show up.
   4. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 01, 2011 at 05:05 AM (#3947139)
Well see, that trade worked out well for both sides.
   5. Karl from NY Posted: October 01, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#3947306)
The Moody Blues need to get in line behind Rush. (There, that should kick this thread going.)
   6. Sam M. Posted: October 01, 2011 at 03:51 PM (#3947307)
The Giants can't even offer Beltran arbitration to get compensation in the draft and, in effect, replace Wheeler.

That said, I thought it was a good move for them at the time, given their needs and their position, so I won't criticize it now. But it didn't work out, that seems clear.
   7. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: October 01, 2011 at 04:11 PM (#3947315)
New York teams aren’t supposed to let popular, homegrown stars go.

Darryl Strawberry says 'hi'.

I also could mention a certain pitcher, but I don't want to upset Sam.
   8. HowardMegdal Posted: October 01, 2011 at 04:12 PM (#3947316)
That said, I thought it was a good move for them at the time, given their needs and their position, so I won't criticize it now. But it didn't work out, that seems clear.

Leave aside the results as a team- if you trade for a rental, and that rental gives you 179 PA at a 156 OPS+, the trade worked out as well as it possibly could have. Put another way- if other transactions had worked out nearly as well for San Francisco, they'd have been playoff-bound.
   9. Tripon Posted: October 01, 2011 at 04:18 PM (#3947320)
What would the market really be for Reyes? Who has the money to give him a Carl Crawford type contract?
   10. Sam M. Posted: October 01, 2011 at 04:35 PM (#3947338)
Leave aside the results as a team- if you trade for a rental, and that rental gives you 179 PA at a 156 OPS+, the trade worked out as well as it possibly could have. Put another way- if other transactions had worked out nearly as well for San Francisco, they'd have been playoff-bound.


Point taken as to how Beltran performed. They got what they bargained for in that sense. But in another sense, the whole point of the trade was to aim for the post-season, and have an offense that would be ready to compete there. So their performance between the time they acquired him, and the end of the year, made it a wasted effort. It should go without saying that this was not Beltran's fault, but the bottom line is that they squandered the asset (Wheeler) to prepare for a post-season run that never materialized.

To repeat: this is NOT a criticism of Sabean, at least not as I intend it. It was his job, given where the Giants were at the time, to maximize their chances to do as well as they possibly could, and Wheeler was a chit worth cashing in to achieve that goal. That it didn't work out is just an observation to make. And that Wheeler seems (thus far) to be doing all the Mets could have hoped on our end of it is a good thing for Mets' fans to cheer about.

Darryl Strawberry says 'hi'.

I also could mention a certain pitcher, but I don't want to upset Sam.


In my business, we call these "teachable moments." We do this in the hope that our students will learn from them and not repeat mistakes made in the past (or present) by themselves or others.

I have been doing this long enough to realize teachable moments usually lead to anguish, and then to heavy consumption of fermented beverages, and then to painful hangovers. You would think this cycle itself might be a teachable moment, too. We call this irony.
   11. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: October 01, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3947343)
The Moody Blues need to get in line behind Rush. (There, that should kick this thread going.)

I could not agree more. But Blondie, Metallica, and ABBA are in? ABBA? That's worse than Jim Rice, amirite?
   12. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: October 01, 2011 at 05:09 PM (#3947364)
What would the market really be for Reyes? Who has the money to give him a Carl Crawford type contract?


The Brewers do and SS is without question their biggest hole in the system. They also have a new TV deal starting in a year or two that could almost pay for Reyes by itself.

That being said, I don't expect the Brewers would go that high. But if Reyes were available, I could see the Brewers going for 4-5 years at $15M-$17M per.
   13. Accent Shallow Posted: October 01, 2011 at 05:20 PM (#3947373)
But if Reyes were available, I could see the Brewers going for 4-5 years at $15M-$17M per.

Wouldn't more than half the league be in on Reyes if that's his price?
   14. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: October 01, 2011 at 05:48 PM (#3947391)
I haven't checked every team, but I don't know if 16 teams have that much money to spend on one position as well as fulfill other needs they have.
   15. Bob Tufts Posted: October 01, 2011 at 05:49 PM (#3947392)
"Now, now, the Canadian Government has apologized for Bryan Adams on several occasions" - but not for Rush.
   16. Shooty is in the Trust Tree Posted: October 01, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3947395)
But Blondie, Metallica, and ABBA are in?

Blondie is pretty great. I'll take them over Moody Blues or Rush.
   17. Sam M. Posted: October 01, 2011 at 05:57 PM (#3947400)
The only thing that keeps this thread from being a complete schizophrenic train wreck is that I am moody & blue over the prospect of losing Jose Reyes.

If the price on Reyes is 5/$85M, and the Mets lose him, they will be utterly crucified in the press, and deservedly so. Nobody in the NY press will believe for a nanosecond that they lost him for any reason other than the fact that the Wilpons are broke.
   18. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:14 PM (#3947417)
Meanwhile, where does Beltran end up next season?
   19. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3947420)
Boston, maybe?
   20. Sam M. Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:22 PM (#3947422)
If Beltran were willing to DH most of the time, he would make all the sense in the world in Boston as a replacement for Ortiz. He'd give them tremendous production and great flexibility as a sometime-outfielder.
   21. Karl from NY Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#3947435)
Why would Boston be replacing Ortiz? He hit for a 154 OPS+ this season.
   22. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:41 PM (#3947442)
Blondie is pretty great. I'll take them over Moody Blues or Rush.

I like Blondie well enough, but not in a million years would I take them over either the Moody Blues or Rush.

I do think Beltran would be a great fit for Boston in the DH role.
   23. Sam M. Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:47 PM (#3947454)
Why would Boston be replacing Ortiz? He hit for a 154 OPS+ this season.


Because he is a one-dimensional slugger, gives them virtually no roster flexibility (he's played a total of 12 games at any position in the field the last 3 years, all of them at 1B), and may want too much money (he's made an average of $13M a year each of the last 5 years). I bet they can get Beltran for significantly less than that.
   24. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3947456)
Meanwhile, where does Beltran end up next season?

The Cubs seem like a good fit to me. They have lots of extra cash (especially if they don't land one of Pujols/Fielder), outfield needs, and a real need for the positive PR that comes with a veteran name signing.
   25. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: October 01, 2011 at 06:55 PM (#3947461)
I think Reyes to Boston is much more likely than Beltran. They do have money coming off, with Drew (14m), Scutaro (5m), Cameron (8m) definately gone. And Ortiz (10m) and Papelbon (12m) possibley too.* Although I think they resign Big Papi for something like 2/24 plus a vesting option.
Sure, there's some escalating salaries as well, but there should still be enough room for one big splash. Although they may prefer to go after SP. They may end up with nothing, but I expect them to at least make a play for either Reyes, or CJ Wilson.


*numbers are from memory, may be slightly off
   26. Bob Tufts Posted: October 01, 2011 at 07:15 PM (#3947483)
So the Red Sox sign Reyes - and let Drew, Scutaro, Cameron and Varitek go...

Reyes
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Gonzalez
Ortiz
Youkilis/Lowrie (?)
Crawford
Reddick
Salty/Lavarnway

starting pitching
Beckett
Lester
Buchholz
Lackey
Aceves (?)
   27. Sam M. Posted: October 01, 2011 at 07:17 PM (#3947487)
So the Red Sox sign Reyes


LA LA LA LA LA LA LA I'M NOT LISTENING TO YOU LA LA LA LA LA LA NOT LISTENING TO YOU He's coming back to the Mets and somehow the Wilpons are going to be gone and I'm going to wake up and this will have all been a terrible nightmare and it's going to be mid-September 2007 and our lead is safe and we're going to clinch the division and LA LA LA LA LA I'M NOT LISTENING TO YOU EVEN A LITTLE BIT.

Sigh.
   28. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: October 01, 2011 at 07:53 PM (#3947544)
I think we all knew it was only a matter of time before Sam M. became incoherent.
   29. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: October 01, 2011 at 08:04 PM (#3947562)
So the Red Sox sign Reyes - and let Drew, Scutaro, Cameron and Varitek go...

They'll still have to sign a solid back-end of the rotation guy. And maybe a reclamation project, and see if they can catch lightning in a bottle like the Yanks did with Colon/Garcia.

No idea if Bedard would re-sign with Boston, they could do a lot worse than him. Otherwise, somebody like Aaron Harang. Edwin Jackson would ne nice, but if they sign Reyes, I'm not sure the money is going to be there.

Don't know what the word on Dice-K is, last I heard was potentially back for mid-season, but anybody's guess how good he'll be. If you pro-rate the posting dee that's 20m alone coming off next year. So maybe the Sox can get creative, and short the first year of a contract, and load up the others...
   30. Sam M. Posted: October 02, 2011 at 05:02 AM (#3948259)
I think we all knew it was only a matter of time before Sam M. became incoherent.


Fine. Then I will let The Boss speak for me:

Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet
Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret
We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet


None of this has happened. The Mets didn't piss away their post-season hopes in 2007 and 2008. The Wilpons weren't involved in a massive Ponzi scheme, they didn't leverage every Mets-related asset they have to the hilt, and they aren't running from the law. They didn't piss away the Wright-Reyes-Beltran-Santana core like this.

Except they did all those things. But at least, if I'm living in that future, at least losing Jose Reyes hasn't happened yet. Keep your grubby Red Sox paws off him.

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