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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Megdal: The Lucas Duda experiment failed, but the Mets had to try it

Megdal’s latest…

As for Duda’s future, he’s going to play left field and first base at Triple-A. It is awfully hard to see how he can succeed as a left fielder any more than he can as a right fielder. His failures in right were due to awful mobility for the position, and in left, he’ll face the same issue. Ultimately, he’s probably a regular designated hitter, and a decent-to-good one, the range of outcomes depending on whether he hits like he did in 2012, or the more effective hitting he provided in 2011.

But since the Mets don’t play in the American League, that means Duda’s future is almost certainly elsewhere.

Which is just as well: Alderson needs whatever trade chips he can muster to try and improve the team again this winter, with a budget that isn’t likely to be any different than it was for him last year. And last year’s budget made contending just about impossible.

Repoz Posted: July 25, 2012 at 06:11 PM | 92 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: July 25, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4192250)
Cleveland is in the middle of a division race and playing Casey Kotchman at 1B. They'd have to be willing to give up something for Duda.
   2. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 25, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4192288)
Paul D agrees.
   3. deputydrew Posted: July 25, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4192305)
If the Mets have decided he's not an OF, it does seem like they should try to deal him now. If he goes to AAA and fails to hit, he'll have very little value in the off-season.
   4. The District Attorney Posted: July 25, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4192319)
There's no doubt that Duda, a 1B if not DH in a logical universe, is not a long-term Met. But it bothers me that they seem to have sent him down without a better option to replace him. "Playing the hot hand" among a bunch of backups is not the answer. Not to mention that the guy they called up instead was Manny Acosta.

If they honestly think that Duda wasn't hitting because he was playing RF rather than LF -- which I think is a pretty ridiculous theory -- then just move the guy back to LF. It's not like they have anyone worthwhile at either position to worry about.

I don't think sending him down helps the 2012 Mets, nor does it exactly do wonders for his trade value if that's your concern. Now his statline consists in large part of the epic slump that he didn't get the chance to play out of. How much trade value is a 726 OPS 1B/DH gonna have?
   5. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 25, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4192336)
I assume the plan is to play Valdespin most of the time. Not that he's much of a prospect either.
   6. Paul D(uda) Posted: July 25, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4192370)
Hell of a player.
   7. MC Skat Kat kann es eigentlich kaum erwarten Posted: July 25, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4192374)
Hell of a player.

At least he has a functioning wrist.
   8. Dan Posted: July 25, 2012 at 09:58 PM (#4192376)
At least he has a functioning wrist.


Usually more helpful to have two of those though.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: July 25, 2012 at 10:05 PM (#4192380)
Duda 2012: 241/335/391, 102 OPS+
Duda ZIPS: 256/338/431, 108 OPS+

all within spitting distance (or one good week). Howard's point (seems right) is that Duda's defense is bad enough he needs to rake pretty good to be worth it. And great googly-moogly does bWAR hate his defense but not as much as fangraphs does.

It's been a while since Duda spent substantial time at 1B and I don't know if his defense was considered decent there or not. There are AL teams who could use help at 1B/DH (Tampa, Cleveland, maybe Detroit) and right now you could probably trade him to the Marlins for Reyes and Josh Johnson if you're willing to pick up the tab. :-) But he's got no real trade value, could flip him for a AAAA player that's more useful to you.
   10. Elvis Posted: July 25, 2012 at 10:17 PM (#4192387)
And to make the Duda demotion even more of a head-scratcher, they kept Kirk Nieuwenhuis in the majors. In his last 75 PA, Nieuwenhuis has fanned 32 times, for a 42.7 K%. And that's with him no longer playing against LHP.

Valdespin can be the backup CF, which negates the main advantage that Nieuwenhuis has over Duda.
   11. Grumbledook Posted: July 25, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4192422)
As the Mets continue to make sub-optimal personnel moves (demoting Lucas Duda while keeping Jason Bay on the 25-man roster, seemingly for no reason other than the specious notion that they "must play Bay every day" because of the amount owed to him), it makes me question their commitment to win. While cutting the payroll by about 1/3 in one season while remaining competitive is difficult, knocking the payroll back to $93 million still puts them ahead of the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.

Alderson and company may ultimately succeed in righting the ship, but I still think the best hope for this franchise is for the Wilpons to make themselves scarce. If they can't pay off the Bank of America loans, Mets fans may finally get their wish.

   12. Bob Tufts Posted: July 25, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4192425)
I still prefer the Lucas Duda Experiment to the Alan Parsons Project, but "I Robot" pretty much describes Lucas' outfield mobility.
   13. Benji Posted: July 26, 2012 at 06:29 AM (#4192468)
Now I find myself rooting for the Bank Of America!
   14. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 08:09 AM (#4192487)
I still prefer the Lucas Duda Experiment to the Alan Parsons Project, but "I Robot" pretty much describes Lucas' outfield mobility.

He was totally failing at the Zeroth law by causing Mets fans as a whole to come to harm through his inaction. Back to the factory!
   15. billyshears Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:13 AM (#4192553)
I agree completely with #4. I think the best thing the Mets could have done was to allow Duda to rehabilitate himself as a bat, and hope that the Mets could extract some value from him in an offseason trade.

I will say, I don't think Alderson has covered himself in glory since the Beltran/Wheeler trade. They spent what little money they had to spend in the offseason on relievers. That's always a dubious plan. but if that's where you want to spend your money, you better get it right. For the most part, Alderson didn't. The Pagan/Torres trade was a disaster. I think their draft this year was seriously uninspiring. And the roster still doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I really can't point to one thing the Mets have done in the past 11 1/2 months that has enhanced their ability to compete, either in 2012 or beyond.
   16. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4192573)
They spent what little money they had to spend in the offseason on relievers. That's always a dubious plan. but if that's where you want to spend your money, you better get it right. For the most part, Alderson didn't. The Pagan/Torres trade was a disaster.

This I definitely agree with. Absolutely definitely.


I think their draft this year was seriously uninspiring. And the roster still doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

These less so, as the draft you can't judge as fast (IMO); I'm not sure how the roster makes more "sense" other than people not sucking. Is that what you mean?
   17. zack Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4192578)
Can Valdespin really play CF? How is his outfield defense, I know for certain I never want to see him at second again, but I haven't seem much of his, uh, out-fielding.
   18. Ravecc Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4192583)
I still don’t get why they stuck Duda in RF, especially with Citi’s quirks, just so Jason Bay can keep his little LF patch.

Oh well, at least they’re trying to rectify it now. And Mike Nickeas finally demoted! See, that deck chair looks better over there.
   19. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4192584)
And Mike Nickeas finally demoted! See, that deck chair looks better over there.

If "over there" means "over board", then yes, absolutely.
   20. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4192590)
just so Jason Bay can keep his little LF patch.


I get the decision to see if Bay had anything left coming into 2012. But he's beyond bad-- if they have to eat salary to get him off the roster for 2013, they should just bite the bullet.

Oh well, at least they’re trying to rectify it now. And Mike Nickeas finally demoted!


For realz!?! That's awesome.

Selling low on Pagan didn't make sense to me, not given lack of options on-hand.

If I were an Al team, I'd try to buy low on Duda. Wouldn't give a lot for him, but throwing the Mets an arm right now would probably get it done.
   21. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4192594)
I get the decision to see if Bay had anything left coming into 2012. But he's beyond bad-- if they have to eat salary to get him off the roster for 2013, they should just bite the bullet.

I'm in this camp. Finally.
   22. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4192595)
I'm in this camp. Finally.


Step into the light!
   23. billyshears Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4192600)
These less so, as the draft you can't judge as fast (IMO)


That's true, but I think they generally played it safe this year, whereas last year they made a point of embracing upside/risk. Everybody seems to think that Cecchini can be an OK MLB shortstop and that Plawecki might be back-end starting catcher. Those are both good things and maybe that makes them worth their draft position, but I think the Mets really need to be hunting for impact players rather than players who can provide value in their mere usefulness.

I'm not sure how the roster makes more "sense" other than people not sucking. Is that what you mean?


Well, kind of, actually. It's more that, on most days they're seriously defensively challenged at three positions (2b, LF, RF) and they're only making up for that on the offensive end at 2b, and that's only a recent phenomenon. Bay and Torres are mostly just taking up space and should be DFAed - they're not providing present value and are taking ABs from players who are just as good currently and have a chance to provide future value. Essentially, the Mets have a lot of players that aren't providing value and I don't think much has been done to address it. Even so much as just getting rid of Bay so Duda could play left would be a positive step.

Edit: Looks like we are all in agreement on Bay.
   24. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4192651)
Bay and Torres are mostly just taking up space and should be DFAed -


Torres had a little stretch where he looked OK. But now that they're really out of the hunt, they need to start assembling next year's roster. Who's up to take Nickeas's spot? And who would you play ahead of Torres, if Bay's not in the lineup?
   25. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4192660)
Well, kind of, actually. It's more that, on most days they're seriously defensively challenged at three positions (2b, LF, RF) and they're only making up for that on the offensive end at 2b, and that's only a recent phenomenon

We're mostly just quibbling now, but despite yesterday's DP screw-up, I cannot accurately describe Murphy as "seriously defensively challenged."

Ultimately I think the also-rans are less the problem, as they are always there, and for every team. With Reyes gone and Davis still learning not to suck, we simply don't have any serious threats at the plate beyond Wright. Murphy and Tejada are decent threats, and Davis is a threat to hit a HR once in awhile and that's it. That's just not enough.
   26. Bob Tufts Posted: July 26, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4192711)
Bigger problem - Oliver Perez' deal or Jason Bay's deal?
   27. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4192730)
With Reyes gone and Davis still learning not to suck, we simply don't have any serious threats at the plate beyond Wright.


Yeah, I agree that's a huge problem-- going into the season, they looked to have at least league-average production at almost every position, with most of it coming on the cheap. But that formula only works if no one slips below that threshold, and a few guys get significantly beyond it. Wright looks like the only one with the ability to get significantly beyond it. Tejada, as much as I like him, is probably playing at the peak of his ability right now.

I don't want to curse Flores, but he's the one guy in the system who looks like he can be a legit threat at the plate.

#26: Bay, and I don't think it's really that close-- he's taking up payroll at a time when money's more scarce than it was during Ollie's time, he's hurting the team every day he's on the field (with Ollie, at least it was only once every 5 days, though his inability to get into the 5th sapped the bullpen). Maybe I'm wrong though.
   28. JJ1986 Posted: July 26, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4192742)
I think Ollie was worse for the team because there was still potential there and always the hope that he could get better. Everyone seems to realize that Bay sucks.
   29. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4192760)
Tejada, as much as I like him, is probably playing at the peak of his ability right now.

Man, Tejada exceeds expectations left and right and STILL gets trash-talked - at 22 he can't get any better?
   30. Ravecc Posted: July 26, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4192781)
Who's up to take Nickeas's spot?

Matt Harvey's BFF, Rob Johnson.
   31. Ravecc Posted: July 26, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4192785)
John Harper reported that SA turned down Gregerson for Murphy.

Says something about the putridness of the bullpen that I actually would have considered it.
   32. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4192786)
John Harper reported that SA turned down Gregerson for Murphy.

I cannot be the only one who thinks Murphy has more value than THAT.
   33. JJ1986 Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4192802)
I think that's an awful proposal. If Murphy's only worth a short reliever, then you keep Murphy.
   34. Ravecc Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4192806)
I cannot be the only one who thinks Murphy has more value than THAT.


Well, obviously, Alderson thinks the same way.

More interesting tidbits from Harper:

One AL scout suggested the A’s as a good match now that they’ve emerged as a surprise wild-card contender.

“They have a lot of good young arms but they need more offense if they’re going to be serious about taking a run at the wild card,’’ the scout said. “Murphy would be one of their best hitters.’’

The A’s have some viable young middle relievers and an abundance of lefthanders in the likes of Jerry Blevins, Jordan Norberto, Sean Doolittle, and Triple-A prospect Pedro Figueroa. Maybe the Mets indeed could make a match.


Yea, keep Murph.
   35. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4192807)
The Spanish headline for this ought to be "Los Mets sin Duda sin duda,"
   36. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4192816)
Man, Tejada exceeds expectations left and right and STILL gets trash-talked - at 22 he can't get any better?


Dude, I was agreeing with you! You know I'm a Tejada booster. "Peak of his ability" was the wrong phrasing-- but it's tough to see him improving on his performance this year, which has already exceeded a lot of expectations. He's a really valuable player, and making Alderson look smart for not offering Reyes a contract.
   37. The District Attorney Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4192818)
He's a really valuable player, and making Alderson look smart for not offering Reyes a contract.
As is Reyes.
   38. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4192827)
As is Reyes.


In fairness, Reyes has been a lot better as of late, and they're fairly even in terms of OPS+. When you factor in playing time and baserunning, pluses for Reyes, and defense, a plus for Tejada, Reyes comes out ahead, but it's close-ish (1.3 WAR for Tejada and 2.0 for Reyes).
   39. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4192828)
Dude, I was agreeing with you! You know I'm a Tejada booster. "Peak of his ability" was the wrong phrasing-- but it's tough to see him improving on his performance this year, which has already exceeded a lot of expectations. He's a really valuable player, and making Alderson look smart for not offering Reyes a contract.

Fair enough. You're right, the wording you used was kind of poking me in the eye.
   40. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4192835)
You're right, the wording you used was kind of poking me in the eye.


The chorus of voices here chanting that Tejada would never be more than a backup infielder left you with some scars.
   41. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: July 26, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4192843)
"2.5 games back. We're coming for you and your wilting flower of an innings-limit pitcher."
-Lassus - June 30, 2012

"No you aren't. You're now 11.5 games back, our wilting flower of an innings-limit pitcher just dominated you to complete the series sweep, and the Mets are a bad baseball team, just like I've been saying all season long."
-Joey B. - July 26, 2012
   42. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4192845)
I must be listening to the wilting fan flower of Esoteric too much.

Kind of telling how you responded to that a month later and 11.5 games up as opposed to when I wrote it, wouldn't you say?
   43. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4192848)
"No you aren't. You're now 11.5 games back, our wilting flower of an innings-limit pitcher just dominated you to complete the series sweep, and the Mets are a bad baseball team, just like I've been saying all season long."


Here are the names of the Mets mentioned in this thread
Duda
Murphy
Bay
Tejada
Nickeas
Johnson
Torres
Niewenhaus
Valdespin

Kind of hard to argue with Joey's statement based on that assembly of talent that los Mets are running out there. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Wilting Flower Strasburg in September. They could finish ahead of the Phillies, though.
   44. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: July 26, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4192855)
Lassus knows perfectly well that I was telling him very early on in the season that the Mets were a bad team. Of course this is hardly some kind of great revelation; I think almost everyone knew this before the season started, but he refused to believe it.

Personally, I'm amazed that they somehow or another managed to have such an incredible fluke first half of a season. But it's no surprise at all that they're now going down like the Titanic; that was inevitable.
   45. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4192859)
Nothing like being a shitty winner. GJ Joey B. You're making me hope for Sam H.
   46. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4192861)
Lassus knows perfectly well that I was telling him very early on in the season that the Mets were a bad team.

True. It is too bad you were too scared to say so three months in when we were right on your ass, though, isn't it?


Of course this is hardly some kind of great revelation; I think almost everyone knew this before the season started, but he refused to believe it.

What you consider an insult, I take as a compliment.
   47. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4192864)
Lassus knows perfectly well that I was telling him very early on in the season that the Mets were a bad team. Of course this is hardly some kind of great revelation; I think almost everyone knew this before the season started, but he refused to believe it.


No single fan has done more to sour me on the otherwise-likeable Nats...

The Mets were playing well. They had some injuries at key positions (closer, 2 starters, 3 if you include Pelfrey) that exposed their lack of depth. And they were carrying Mike Nickeas. But no team, including the Mets, is as bad as they look when they're slumping.

   48. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 26, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4192868)
Are any of your lives better after reading or responding to #41 and #44? Did either of those posts provide you with insight or entertainment?

I put Joey on ignore two months ago, and I've been able to enjoy the great story of the Nats and all of their fun players without any difficulty since. I really have to recommend it.
   49. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4192875)
Are any of your lives better after reading or responding to #41 and #44? Did either of those posts provide you with insight or entertainment?

I hear you, Matt.

I admit to feeling pretty good after responding in #46, though. I am that small, I suppose.
   50. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4192879)
I mostly just enjoy how much quieter all the Mets and Phillies (especially) fans are at Nationals Park now. What a difference. That's why I have to take some satisfaction from it all after listening to them for the past 7 years.
   51. Joey B. "disrespects the A" Posted: July 26, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4192889)
The Mets were playing well. They had some injuries at key positions (closer, 2 starters, 3 if you include Pelfrey) that exposed their lack of depth. And they were carrying Mike Nickeas. But no team, including the Mets, is as bad as they look when they're slumping.

Well, obviously no team is 1-12 level of bad. The Mets will win some games the rest of the way, and I suppose that if they hit a stretch where they win three or four games in a row I'll have to make sure that I continue to remind Lassus that they're still a bad team. If I don't, he'll apparently use his imaginary mind-reading and empathic superpowers to project feelings of terror into my mind that don't exist.

As far as injuries go, there are more injuries in MLB now than ever, and pretty much every team in the league has had to deal with key injuries this season, so I'm not that sympathetic. The Nationals are currently without their starting catcher, shortstop, and right-fielder, and are still kicking ass and taking names.
   52. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4192896)
I put Joey on ignore two months ago, and I've been able to enjoy the great story of the Nats and all of their fun players without any difficulty since. I really have to recommend it.
Why did this not occur to me? Well done, Matt.
   53. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 26, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4192897)
The Nats are a team that has stunk every other year of their existence. Are you really this pompous after 2/3 of a good season?
   54. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4192917)
I put Joey on ignore two months ago, and I've been able to enjoy the great story of the Nats and all of their fun players without any difficulty since. I really have to recommend it.


I am generally against putting people on ignore, but in this case...yeah, I'm having a hard time thinking of anything substantive I'd be missing out on. Joey B's words:insight ratio is abominable.

Thanks for the suggestion.
   55. attaboy Posted: July 26, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4192931)
Are you really this pompous after 2/3 of a good season?

I am a Mets fan and let's be fair, for the next 2-3 seasons, until BoreAss has his way, the Nats are a damn good team!
   56. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 26, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4192947)
Nobody doubts they look promising going forward, but the point stands - this has been a crap franchise; how does its apparent turning of the corner make Joey any less of a dildo?
   57. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4193232)
Matt Harvey Ks his first batter to start the Mets' 15-game winning streak. I'm chattering here because BTF has given up on making the chatters the right day and game.
   58. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4193245)
It annoys me when rookies are too cool to smile after getting their first big-league hit.
   59. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4193278)
He looks good, throwing a lot of pitches though. Nickeas would have had that pitch.
   60. formerly dp Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4193282)
Keith is going a little insane with the comparisons.

7 Ks through 3. And batting 1.000

Fixed
   61. Dan Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:45 PM (#4193285)
Kieth [sic] is going a little insane with the comparisons.


Glad I'm not the only one who had this thought.
   62. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4193315)
Being staked to a 3 run lead is nice. What's his pitch count?
   63. Dan Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4193323)
88 through 5 innings. With 10 ####### strikeouts!
   64. Esoteric Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4193327)
I think it's gauche to gloat about the Nats right now, but then again that's largely because (as Lassus amusingly hinted at) no matter how many games they win I'm convinced they're never more than one disastrous loss away from a sudden, irrevocable, soul-destroying collapse. (You can imagine how I felt after the 11-10 Braves games and the subsequent loss in the first game of the next day's doubleheader.)

I didn't think the Mets were a good team at all this year either (I mean, even when they were winning it was abundantly obvious that, David Wright aside, it was with smoke, mirrors, and the Miracle That Is R.A. Dickey). But I see no need to rub it in or remind Mets fans about it. I'm not sure what kind of point it proves anyway. It's not as if people were talking about them like the 1927 Yankees in May and June, after all.
   65. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4193336)
I didn't think the Mets were a good team at all this year either (I mean, even when they were winning it was abundantly obvious that, David Wright aside, it was with smoke, mirrors, and the Miracle That Is R.A. Dickey).

The Nationals have a significantly better team and it's due to their pitching. For all the "smoke and mirrors", the Mets actually have a better OPS+ than the Nationals.
   66. Esoteric Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4193337)
The Nationals have a significantly better team and it's due to their pitching. For all the "smoke and mirrors", the Mets actually have a better OPS+ than the Nationals.
1.) I doubt the OPS+ advantage will remain now that the Nats are getting healthy (Zimmerman, Morse, Werth returning) and beginning to hit.

2.) Your first point is correct, however, but it's exactly the reason why I figured the Mets were due to fall sooner or later: the rotation was Dickey, Santana (with obvious potential for injury that indeed came to pass) and filler, and then the bullpen...well I don't need to tell Mets fans about their bullpen. It was only a matter of time before their inability to protect leads caught up with them.

This new kid Harvey sure looked impressive tonight, though.
   67. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4193344)
1.) I doubt the OPS+ advantage will remain now that the Nats are getting healthy (Zimmerman, Morse, Werth returning) and beginning to hit.

Zimmerman has a 114 OPS+ this year, after a 118 OPS+ last year, and a 120 OPS+ for his career. How much better do you think he's going to be? Werth and Morse are likely to provide a boost to the offense but the Mets have the same argument with regards to some of their own players.I think it's just as likely that the Mets end up with the better offense than the Nats.

It was only a matter of time before their inability to protect leads caught up with them.

Sure, but it's also likely they aren't quite as bad as they are right now. I am not arguing that the Mets are a good team or as good as the Nats. But they are a .500ish team that was playing at the upper level of their talent level for a little while, not a horrible team that got lucky.
   68. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:52 PM (#4193345)
Eso: I think you're rating Niese and Gee too lightly, and Santana is out because of an ankle injury rather than an arm injury, but given that Gee is out for the season your point mostly holds. The Mets have the worst possible timing for their slump, a week earlier or a week later and they might try to fix the pen at low cost, as it is right now they probably won't try.
   69. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4193348)
they are a .500ish team that was playing at the upper level of their talent level for a little while, not a horrible team that got lucky.


That's how I felt going into the season (with the caveat that I didn't know how Santana would do, and that I expected Dickey to not have that incredible stretch of awesome) and I'm pretty happy with the team as is. If they can claw back to 3-4 games out of the second wildcard into September I'll be a happy fan. Even in this bad stretch they're losing to good teams by narrow margins.
   70. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 27, 2012 at 12:01 AM (#4193352)
Btw, rotoworld is saying that Mejia is going back to the rotation. He pitched very well in the rotation to start the year than was awful out of the bullpen. I know it feels like he's been around forever but he's still only 22 years old, (he will turn 23 in October).
   71. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 27, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4193365)
So someone mentioned this on another thread, but what happened to Sam M? Feel free to respond by private message/email, but I miss his commentary and I haven't seen him around recently.
   72. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 27, 2012 at 01:02 AM (#4193377)
Harvey wins his first start.
   73. Benji Posted: July 27, 2012 at 06:07 AM (#4193428)
I loved that fastball on the outside corner, then up and in combination. If he can consistently harness that he'll be a monster.
   74. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 27, 2012 at 07:34 AM (#4193434)
Harvey makes me happy.
   75. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 27, 2012 at 08:45 AM (#4193446)
Harvey was very very impressive. The comparisons were over the top (Seaver, Koosman, etc. - besides, he looks a lot more like Clemens to me!), but one comment that was right I thought was that it's been a while since the Mets brought up a power pitcher of this kind and caliber. For a while it looked like Pelfrey was that guy, but when he got to AAA it turned out he couldn't strike anyone out.
   76. formerly dp Posted: July 27, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4193503)
That's how I felt going into the season (with the caveat that I didn't know how Santana would do, and that I expected Dickey to not have that incredible stretch of awesome) and I'm pretty happy with the team as is. If they can claw back to 3-4 games out of the second wildcard into September I'll be a happy fan.


Their stretch of playing quality baseball and being close in June was fun, and more than I expected out of the team. They still weren't hitting last night, but if Harvey shows he belongs in the rotation, their 1-5 starters going into 2013 will at least keep them in games.

The bullpen will need to be rebuilt. Again.
   77. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 27, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4193539)
Edgin looks promising. Parnell still does too. If Familia and Mejia turn out, as some expect, to be relievers, that has the potential to be a good bullpen core.

The Rauch deal never made sense, and Francisco should have been better than he's been. At list the chicken remark was amusing.
   78. Ravecc Posted: July 27, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4193548)
More than the power stuff, Harvey is the first Mets pitching prospect I’ve seen in a good long while who has major league breaking stuff. His slider was plain nasty. Stay away from him, Dan Warthen.

Mad props for Josh Edgin as well.

OTOH, our search for a RH complement to Josh Thole is not over. Rob Johnson sucked.
   79. formerly dp Posted: July 27, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4193607)
OTOH, our search for a RH complement to Josh Thole is not over. Rob Johnson sucked.


I don't think this is a problem that'll be solved in 2012.

Btw, rotoworld is saying that Mejia is going back to the rotation. He pitched very well in the rotation to start the year than was awful out of the bullpen.


I never understood the desire to make Mejia a reliever. And, like the first time, the conversion this year seemed to happen to address a short-term need.

   80. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 27, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4193627)
[48] MCoA - good advice.
   81. JJ1986 Posted: July 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4193637)
OTOH, our search for a RH complement to Josh Thole is not over. Rob Johnson sucked.


I was just looking through the backup catchers in the major leagues and so many of them are horrible. I'd like to add Rod Barajas again next year, but they probably won't spend on a backup.
   82. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 27, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4193704)
Duda starts his AAA exile (where he's going to play 1B and LF) by playing RF.
   83. JE (Jason) Posted: July 27, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4193929)
Those who are down on the offseason Pagan trade need to remember that Torres represented a $2M+ savings at a time when $ was scarce.
   84. zack Posted: July 27, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4193998)
Those who are down on the offseason Pagan trade need to remember that Torres represented a $2M+ savings at a time when $ was scarce.


True, but that doesn't (and shouldn't) matter to Mets fans, seeing as it's not our money, and any savings they did realize were wasted in a failed attempt to bolster the bullpen.
   85. formerly dp Posted: July 27, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4194012)
Those who are down on the offseason Pagan trade need to remember that Torres represented a $2M+ savings at a time when $ was scarce.


I didn't agree with the decision to sell low on Pagan, but I didn't think it was a bad deal either. It turned out to be a mistake. Holding Pagan and hoping he rebounded would have been the better move, and had the positive effect of keeping a better CF on the team. Neither Pagan nor Torres has been especially durable, but Torres is older and just not as good.
   86. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 27, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4194068)
I didn't agree with the decision to sell low on Pagan, but I didn't think it was a bad deal either. It turned out to be a mistake. Holding Pagan and hoping he rebounded would have been the better move, and had the positive effect of keeping a better CF on the team. Neither Pagan nor Torres has been especially durable, but Torres is older and just not as good.
And realistically, even though Pagan has been better this year, he's really only about 1 win better than Torres. It wasn't a great trade, but it's not like it really affected the team this year.
   87. formerly dp Posted: July 27, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4194080)
Pagan has been slumping lately, to the point where he's having his 2011 all over again.
   88. JE (Jason) Posted: July 27, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4194097)
True, but that doesn't (and shouldn't) matter to Mets fans, seeing as it's not our money, and any savings they did realize were wasted in a failed attempt to bolster the bullpen.

Other than perhaps signing a more capable righty-hitting catcher, I'm not sure where the $2+M could have been spent.
   89. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 28, 2012 at 03:52 AM (#4194363)
OTOH, our search for a RH complement to Josh Thole is not over. Rob Johnson sucked.



I don't think this is a problem that'll be solved in 2012.


The problem was solved in 2011 though. I didn't mind all the bullpen signings this offseason, since our bullpen was terrible and the rotation/lineup were more or less set. I didn't hate the Pagan for Torres swap, though I didn't really get it either. But letting Paulino walk bothered me, and every time I've had to watch Mike Nickeas or Rob Johnson step to the plate just makes it more frustrating.
   90. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 28, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4194425)
The trade looked a little better when it looked like Ramon Ramirez was a pretty good reliever. He's been a disappointment.
   91. JJ1986 Posted: July 28, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4194429)
Paulino has been awful himself this season.
   92. JE (Jason) Posted: July 28, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4194437)
As of this morning:
Torres: .224/.341/.310 .298 wOBA
Pagan: .277/.322/.395 .316 wOBA
Torres rates higher in both DRS and UZR.

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