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Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Megdal: ‘Too absorbed with his new celebrity’ The sliming of R.A. Dickey

That’s great. Actual physical contract. Now, can you move?

After Dickey called out the Mets for an incredibly low contract offer, the team decided to revisit the playbook they used with Anna Benson, and with various players they’ve disagreed with in recent years; they attacked. 

From today’s Post:

  The Mets, meanwhile, have mounting concerns whether all of Dickey’s off-the-field endeavors could impact his on-field results or his standing in the clubhouse if the perception is that he has become too absorbed with his new celebrity.

  The Mets already were annoyed, The Post has learned, Dickey last week turned down a personal appearance request from owner Fred Wilpon. 

Here’s Dickey, meanwhile: “In the context of the market, you want what you think is fair. I feel like we’re asking for less than what’s fair because that’s how it’s been for me. There is a surprise sometimes when things don’t get done quickly and you already think you’re extending the olive branch. At the same time, they have a budget they have to adhere to. I don’t know those numbers. And I try not to take it personally.”

That must be hard, when your team’s management is suggesting anonymously, and on the basis of no apparent real-life evidence, that your ego is having an impact on your ability to play well and be a good teammate.

Repoz Posted: December 12, 2012 at 03:51 PM | 215 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 14, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4325141)
.

“The Mets are telling clubs that they have an acceptable trade offer for R.A. Dickey, but they are trying to get an even better package,” a source told Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.
The Wilpons are pathetic motherfuckers. May they rot in hell for all time.



Carry on.

.
   102. billyshears Posted: December 14, 2012 at 06:25 PM (#4325146)
I just wished the Cardinals would have said "We'll give you two of the following Garcia, Taveras, Rosenthal, Martinez or Miller"... or maybe just Taveras straight up or something. And we don't even really need a pitcher.


We have a deal. Do you want to call it in, or should I?
   103. formerly dp Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:19 PM (#4325190)
I'm going to be really pissed if it's Gose/Arencibia.
Me too. And I'm excited about Gose's potential.
==
I was extremely unhappy when the Jays traded Halladay, even if they felt they had to do it. The same applied when the Jays let Delgado go in FA.
The thing that bugged me about both of those players is that they at least appeared to love playing in Toronto, in spite of the team being consistently mediocre. Delgado was a class act all around, and JP blamed the team's failures on him. It was terrible. They handled the Halladay situation a lot better.

I think the comparison to RA works for precisely that reason-- no one should want to be a Met right now, not with the team spending like they're the 2013 Marlins. But Dickey really feels a loyalty to them, and they're pretty much saying #### off.

FWIW, if he has to go somewhere, I'll be really glad to see him end up with the Jays. I'm still hoping to some day see a Mets/Jays World Series, but it probably won't happen during RA's tenure.
   104. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4325197)
I'm going to be really pissed if it's Gose/Arencibia.

Me too.
   105. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4325199)
They handled the Halladay situation a lot better.

Once they fired JP. When JP was still handling it, he was making as big a mess of it as he did with Delgado.
   106. formerly dp Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:35 PM (#4325200)
RA on a 1 year, $5M contract is a lot less valuable than RA on a 3 year, $31M contract. I mentioned this a while back, but a sign-and-trade (or is it trade-and-sign?) was always the best path to the Mets getting a huge haul back for Dickey.
   107. Benji Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:35 PM (#4325201)
If that is the "haul" they get for Dickey that makes the aggregate for them:
Beltran, Reyes, KRod and Dickey for Wheeler, nothing, nothing and two bleh prospects. And people still are telling me to trust "the plan".
   108. formerly dp Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:39 PM (#4325204)
Once they fired JP. When JP was still handling it, he was making as big a mess of it as he did with Delgado.
Oh right. I forgot that was an Anthropolus deal. Once he elegantly shed all of the club's albatross contracts, he really was a train wreck with his trades and signings.

Maybe the Mets are letting JP handle the Dickey situation?
   109. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:41 PM (#4325205)
The negotiations are really getting drawn out. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they still break down.

It's not like RA Dickey on a 1/5 contract will become untradeable any time soon. And if the Mets don't have the money to pay him, then it's not like they need to move on this to get going on the free agent market.
   110. Mark S. is bored Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4325207)
RA on a 1 year, $5M contract is a lot less valuable than RA on a 3 year, $31M contract. I mentioned this a while back, but a sign-and-trade (or is it trade-and-sign?) was always the best path to the Mets getting a huge haul back for Dickey.
Not without Dickey's permission. Teams can't trade a newly signed free agent until after June 15 of the following season, unless the player gives written consent.
   111. formerly dp Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4325208)
The negotiations are really getting drawn out. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they still break down.
It's the offseason. Does it really matter if it takes a day or two to hammer out an extension with the new team? Though Dickey asking for a lot more money from the new team, or just not wanting to extend with them at all, would be totally understandable.
   112. formerly dp Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:49 PM (#4325209)
Not without Dickey's permission. Teams can't trade a newly signed free agent until after June 15 of the following season, unless the player gives written consent.
How does this apply here?
   113. Mark S. is bored Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:50 PM (#4325211)
[quote] Not without Dickey's permission. Teams can't trade a newly signed free agent until after June 15 of the following season, unless the player gives written consent.
How does this apply here?

Depends on the ruling if this applies to an extension of the contract as well.
   114. Dale Sams Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:51 PM (#4325212)
Gosh, Toronto gets everyone.


And that 78 wins for Boston goes to 76.
   115. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4325215)
It's the offseason. Does it really matter if it takes a day or two to hammer out an extension with the new team?
If it's just about Dickey, then, sure, it's no big deal. The reports so far are not that the Mets are awaiting an agreement between the Jays and Dickey, but that the Mes and Jays have not come to an agreement.

The Jays system isn't weak, but the front line talent other than Travis d'Arnaud consists of kid pitchers in the Midwest League. It's hard to see the Mets going for that, which leaves a d'Arnaud package. Which the Jays most likely won't do. The prospect match isn't great.
   116. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4325216)
And that 78 wins for Boston goes to 76.
That would extrapolate to Dickey being worth about 20 wins above replacement overall.
   117. PreservedFish Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4325218)
As I said before, the Jays would have my two favorite baseball players. I hate this so much. It's almost worse than the heinous stupidity of the Kazmir trade.
   118. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4325220)
I'm not sure how a sign-and-trade (as opposed to a trade-and-sign) would be of benefit, anyway. I can understand a trade being held up because the team or player wants to negotiation an extension, but wouldn't Dickey (or any other player) prefer to negotiate with his new team? Contracts aren't just about the dollar amount, and the Blue Jays may be able to offer non-cash benefits that are best discussed between the team and Dickey.
   119. formerly dp Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:10 PM (#4325222)
As I said before, the Jays would have my two favorite baseball players. I hate this so much.
The Jays have been my AL team since the early '90s. They're fun to root for-- they play the Yankees a lot, so you'd get to pull for RA and Reyes against the Evil (crumbling) Empire.

MCoA: RA at $13M/yr for 3 is worth d'Arnaud, IMO. I don't think RA in "I don't intend to play more than a season for Toronto" is worth him. Beyond that, I agree with you on the prospect fit-- I can't see Toronto giving up both Gose and d'Arnaud.
   120. formerly dp Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4325223)
That would extrapolate to Dickey being worth about 20 wins above replacement overall.
He's still refining the knuckler.
   121. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:53 PM (#4325232)
It's not like RA Dickey on a 1/5 contract will become untradeable any time soon. And if the Mets don't have the money to pay him, then it's not like they need to move on this to get going on the free agent market.
Right? How much time is it going to take Alderson, anyway, to spend the offseason budget of 6m on two middle relievers or a backup OFer they'll need to give 500 PAs to?

They handled the Halladay situation a lot better.

Once they fired JP. When JP was still handling it, he was making as big a mess of it as he did with Delgado.

And now JP is working his magic in New York. Swell.

RA on a 1 year, $5M contract is a lot less valuable than RA on a 3 year, $31M contract. I mentioned this a while back, but a sign-and-trade (or is it trade-and-sign?) was always the best path to the Mets getting a huge haul back for Dickey.

Is it, though? Maybe it's smoke, but I've read a few comments from GMs and others indicating that Dickey's value in 2014 and 2015 is very unclear, and that it's hardly a mortal lock that 2/26 for those years represents any kind of steal. OTOH, it's much, much easier to predict Dickey for 2013, and his cost is low, and certain.

I guess the proof is in the diligence with which prospective trade partners are pursuing an extension. If the hold up is Dickey declining to sign a 2/26 extension, then clearly that's a fair chunk of what teams are trading for.

I'm not sure how a sign-and-trade (as opposed to a trade-and-sign) would be of benefit, anyway. I can understand a trade being held up because the team or player wants to negotiation an extension, but wouldn't Dickey (or any other player) prefer to negotiate with his new team?
It would be weird for Dickey to be negotiating his extension with the Jays, through the Mets. I could be wrong but that's what I've always thought the 3 day window that often accompanies these deals was for, like the time Santana signed with the Mets.
   122. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:29 PM (#4325242)
I love what Dickey has done for the Mets as much as anyone, but I just can't get worked up about trading a 38-year old pitcher if Alderson really gets 2 major league starting position players in return, 5-6 years apiece under team control. This team isn't a contender any time soon, David Wright's not getting any younger, and there's no cavalry on the way in the minor leagues.

Is this a pathetic state of the franchise? You're damn right it is, but this is where they are.
   123. Squash Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4325245)
Am I missing something with Olt? Hit well in the Texas League as a 23 year-old, albeit with a ton of strikeouts, primarily a 3B/1B, the 2 positions where the Mets have quality hitters already in place. If that's the top prospect the Mets could get back in a Dickey deal, they should hold him.

I was thinking the same thing. If the Rangers can get Dickey with Olt as the primary piece they should be sprinting to the window.
   124. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4325246)
@122--it'll ease the pain, but if you're seeing a deal where the Mets are getting back two major league ready rookies, clue us in. I'm just not seeing it in any of the trade proposals.

@123--yes they should. And boy, will that suck, on the order of a press conference where Alderson says, 'see? Look at all the magic beans we got!'
   125. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4325249)
@122--it'll ease the pain, but if you're seeing a deal where the Mets are getting back two major league ready rookies, clue us in. I'm just not seeing it in any of the trade proposals.


You mean the trade proposals Alderson hasn't accepted? Stop wetting your pants.
   126. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4325313)
@125: ?

Why the unwarranted hostility, fuckstain?

You wrote (and then, altered I see) about a trade where Alderson "gets 2 major league starting position players in return, 5-6 years apiece under team control" for Dickey.

If this is your roto league wet dream, why mention it?
If it's a possibility, why not be specific?

   127. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 15, 2012 at 12:37 AM (#4325327)
I altered nothing. I just think it's stupid to criticize Alderson for trades that he hasn't agreed to. In fact, it's self evidently stupid.
   128. Greg K Posted: December 15, 2012 at 08:13 AM (#4325388)
D'Arnaud and Gose is now being reported as a potential package...which is far less exciting for the Jays.
   129. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 15, 2012 at 08:57 AM (#4325395)
It looks like d'Arnaud is the sticking point, which makes sense. It's a bad trade for the Mets without him.
   130. Lassus Posted: December 15, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4325397)
D'Arnaud and Gose is now being reported as a potential package...which is far less exciting for the Jays.

Um, good?

I will also say that losing Dickey would blow, but if we get value back, I can't be against a good trade.
   131. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 15, 2012 at 09:49 AM (#4325411)
Yeah, if they get d'Arnaud back I'll be happy.
   132. formerly dp Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM (#4325418)
I will also say that losing Dickey would blow, but if we get value back, I can't be against a good trade.
Gose and d'Arnaud would be a huge haul for Dickey, and have a pretty immediate impact on the club-- that would plug 2 huge holes in the lineup. Gose doesn't have to be Carlos Beltran at the plate to have value; just playing an above-average CF will be a huge plus to the team. That would give them C, 1B, 3B, SS and CF all set for the near term. I have pretty big hopes for Flores right now, if he can hack 2B they'll be in good shape, but the way his bat's developing he might be able to produce enough as a LF.

Damn, Gose struck out 59 times in 166 ABs after his callup last year. IIRC, he was rushed to the majors due to some injuries, but still, that's not a good number.
   133. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:13 AM (#4325425)
Yeah, Gose is only 22, but he does not look all that close to major league ready. His unadjusted numbers in AAA look good, but 366/419 in Las Vegas is actually quite poor - the team as a whole hit 370/455. There are now a few competent major leaguers who combine high Ks and low power, but it's not a combination I'd want my club to lay any bets on. Especially when said low-power high-K hitter hasn't actually demonstrated major league hitting ability.
   134. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4325433)
Gose looks like Carlos Gomez 2.0.
   135. formerly dp Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4325436)
Yeah, Gose is only 22, but he does not look all that close to major league ready. His unadjusted numbers in AAA look good, but 366/419 in Las Vegas is actually quite poor - the team as a whole hit 370/455. There are now a few competent major leaguers who combine high Ks and low power, but it's not a combination I'd want my club to lay any bets on. Especially when said low-power high-K hitter hasn't actually demonstrated major league hitting ability.
Unfortunately, the Mets won't really have the option of sending him to AAA given how thin they are in CF, but he could probably use at least another season there-- someone else compared him to Carlos Gomez (edit: and them AJM here while I was typing), as sort of a diss, but I think the more pertinent similarity might be that they both advanced a little more quickly than they needed to. Gose didn't really dominate AA at age 20, but the Jays bumped him up the ladder regardless.

Just for fun:
Gose at age 20 in AA:
.253/.349/.415, 154 K/62 BB(587 PA), 70 SB/15 CS

Gomez at age 20 in AA:
.281/.350/.423, 97 K/27 BB (486 PA), 41 SB/9 CS

Both players advanced to the PCL at age 21, then got called after injuries left the major league club short on help, with the league inflating their stats to make them appear ready:
Gose at Las Vegas:
.286/.366/.419
Gomez at New Orleans:
.286/.363/.414

In their callup seasons:
Gose
.223/.303/.319 (189 PA), 15/3 sb/cs
Gomez
.232/.288/.304 (139 PA), 12/3 sb/cs

That's kind of weird.
   136. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4325438)
I didn't look that closely at it when I made the comparison, that is weird.
   137. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4325442)
Gomez would be a big upgrade on any Mets outfielder right now.
   138. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4325443)
Gomez played in New Orleans, the one place in the PCL where it's hard to hit. Team only posted a .752 OPS overall. He was obviously not ready but he had performed well in AAA.

I wouldn't mind starting the season with Nieuwenhuis in CF if this trade happens. You don't trade your Cy Young winner and try to win. It's a sign you are rebuilding and evaluating players. The Mets need to find out what Kirk's role on this team will be.

I don't really buy the Gomez/Gose comparison. It looks like Gose has shown more patience at the plate.
   139. Xander Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4325444)
Gomez is a .330 OBP away in 2013 from getting a $50M contract in free agency. And why not? He'll be entering his age-28 season in 2014. He's always been above average in the field and great on the bases. He's shown enough improvement where two above average offensive seasons is enough to earn him a lengthy and lucrative contract.
   140. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4325449)
Gomez would be a big upgrade on any Mets outfielder right now.

I wasn't saying the comparison was bad. If last year wasn't a fluke, he's a really good player.
   141. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4325468)
If you believe fangraphs, Gomez has already had three seasons of 2.0 or more WAR. An excellent defensive centerfielder who adds value on the bases doesn't have to hit a lot to be a good player. I guess in that way, Gose and Gomez are similar.
   142. formerly dp Posted: December 15, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4325487)
I guess in that way, Gose and Gomez are similar.
Gomez has always been remarkably good in CF though-- I don't know that the same is true of Gose.

Either way, if the Mets can land both d'Arnaud and Gose, they're banking on d'Arnaud as the real prize of the deal. Gose doesn't have to be an All-Star for them to do well in the trade.

I wouldn't mind starting the season with Nieuwenhuis in CF if this trade happens.
IIRC, he wasn't great defensively in CF. Depending on who they end up with for the corners, the Mets might need a good glove out there. I agree with the more general point though-- 2013 doesn't really matter. Still, getting players this close to being major league ready in return for Dickey is a plus, in that it minimizes their risk of flaming out as they climb the minor league ladder.
   143. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4325500)
Gose = Corey Patterson
   144. billyshears Posted: December 15, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4325507)
Latest word is either that Gose is not part of the deal, or that the Mets would have to send a "top" prospect back to get D'Arnaud & Gose.
   145. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4325547)
Latest word is either that Gose is not part of the deal, or that the Mets would have to send a "top" prospect back to get D'Arnaud & Gose.
Makes sense. In early 2012 fangraphs had Gose and D'Arnaud as the Jays 1-2 prospects. That Gose wasn't completely overmatched at 21 in the majors does't make his prospects worse, and no one seems to be worried about D'Arnaud's PCL injury. Still, the rap on D'Arnaud before the 2012 season was that he had trouble staying healthy, so there's definitely a downside. If the Jays are trying to win now, it's reasonable to trade part of D'Arnaud's value for a minor leaguer in the Mets system who's a couple of years further away from the majors. When a deal including D'Arnaud is a little unbalanced you don't want to use him to get a throw-in, that fungible backup middle infielder you have some use for. He's real quality.

Gose and d'Arnaud would be a huge haul for Dickey, and have a pretty immediate impact on the club--


I don't think either of them are going to contribute much to the 2013 Mets. Gose's bat is probably at least a year away, if it ever arrives, and if the Mets get him--if he's even fully healed--they should keep D'Arnaud in the minors for awhile to keep his arb clock from ticking.

Either way, if the Mets can land both d'Arnaud and Gose, they're banking on d'Arnaud as the real prize of the deal. Gose doesn't have to be an All-Star for them to do well in the trade.
This sounds right, and it's why the rumors of Gose and Arenciba, a platoon catcher, maybe, with a .275 OBP and no upside, were chilling.
   146. Dan Posted: December 15, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4325563)
Most of the rumors I've read lately are talking about an expanded trade where the Mets will include at least one additional piece besides Dickey to net D'Arnaud (and whatever other pieces the Jays are throwing in, but I'd be surprised if it includes Gose). Duda seems like he might fit as a piece going back to Toronto, where he could split DH/1B duties with Encarnacion. And the Mets seem to have gotten fed up with his defense in the OF, so it seems unlikely that they'd view his inclusion as a sticking point.
   147. Depressoteric Posted: December 15, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4325566)
Serious question: assuming this goes through, are the Jays now the narrow favorites in the AL East with all of their off-season acquisitions? Buehrle, Johnson, Dickey, Reyes...yipes.
   148. Lassus Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4325577)
Latest word is either that Gose is not part of the deal, or that the Mets would have to send a "top" prospect back to get D'Arnaud & Gose.

Seems like the Mets have the leverage here, and could just tell them to pound sand? As someone on the site may have mentioned, the AL East seems weaker than normal this coming season, and Toronto could pounce.
   149. Tripon Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4325582)
The Mets leverage is that they have Dickey for one more year and could have signed him to an extension easily, or traded him.

Now they're publicly been trashing him the media, let it be known they're not interested in an extension, and have done their best to piss off Dickey to the point where he wouldn't be inclined to sign an extension anyway even if the Mets wanted to change their position.

The leverage the Mets have is limited. and they are not likely to get a better deal from the Blue Jays.
   150. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4325589)
The leverage the Mets have is limited. and they are not likely to get a better deal from the Blue Jays.
They could probably get a comparable package from another team, or they could hold on to Dickey at a cheap price with a plan to trade him midseason. It's definitely the Mets who can easily walk away from this deal, while Toronto is unlikely to have a chance to get a better starter.
   151. Eric P. Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4325590)
Duda seems like he might fit as a piece going back to Toronto, where he could split DH/1B duties with Encarnacion


The Jays already have Adam Lind as their 1B/DH who can't hit lefties to save his life. No need for Duda whatsoever.
   152. Dan Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4325593)
The Jays already have Adam Lind as their 1B/DH who can't hit lefties to save his life. No need for Duda whatsoever.


Lind hasn't even hit RHP especially well for a platoon first baseman with unexceptional defense the last few seasons though. Sub .800 OPS vs RHP in both of the last 2 seasons (in addition to his usual futility against LHP). 2009 was really the last season that he mashed RHP (though he was decent in 2010, his OBP was only .327 vs RHP).
   153. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4325597)
The leverage the Mets have is limited. and they are not likely to get a better deal from the Blue Jays.

They could probably get a comparable package from another team, or they could hold on to Dickey at a cheap price with a plan to trade him midseason. It's definitely the Mets who can easily walk away from this deal, while Toronto is unlikely to have a chance to get a better starter.
I think Matt's right. There isn't anyone out there who can come close to bringing to the Jays what Dickey can. The Mets have behaved stupidly, but they still have a lot of weight to throw around.

As for Duda, if he's who the Jays want in order to let go of D'Arnaud, I'd catapault Duda to Toronto. Duda's the definition of fungible--a guy with no value on D who might be able to hit a little, but has no chance of becoming anything special. The Jays would be fools to take such a replaceable part as part of a package for a catcher who might play in half a dozen all star games.
   154. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4325614)
   155. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4325618)
It is.

Espn says D'Arnaud "Was voted as the best defensive catcher by Eastern League Managers in Baseball America’s “Best Tools” edition... " He tore a thumb ligament in October, but that has to be 2011, right? His downside is a guy who gets hurt every year, plays 60 games a season, and makes it impossible to get the catcher situation settled because you're always piecing in around him.

With Wheeler, Harvey, D'Arnaud, and Gose (is that too greedy?), the Mets would have four Top 40 prospects (if you cut Gose and Wheeler slack for playing in the majors in 2012), two of whom got their feet wet last season. As of mid-year they were 4th, 22nd, 37th, and 38th. Fangraphs seems to have had D'Arnaud at #8 until he got hurt. That would be a hell of system at the top end. The Mets are only missing bulk, and we won't know how they're doing with that until the last couple of drafts develop.

I don't quite get the love for Gose, but Marc Hulet at fangraphs says Gose has real value in the majors even if he hits only .230 or .240. I guess he walks enough to make that tolerable, he has a little power, or at least enough to keep OFers honest, and if he's a plus CFer, that covers a lot of sins. Unfortunately, Hulet's still talking about stolen bases as though they'd matter in Gose's case. Going 228 and 80 in the minors didn't help his game.

I still hate this, though.
   156. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4325620)
Thole may be leaving:

"As of this morning, the deal had four players coming to the Mets and three to the Blue Jays, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Toronto also wants a catcher back in the deal, and that could be Thole. The Mets have discussed getting pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard in the deal as well, Puma tweets."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#73hGBsmbrK2QgPTd.99

Will anyone miss Thole at this point? He's yet to put up a one win season, acc to bWAR.

More:

Sherman reports (on Twitter) that Gose is not part of the trade talks for Dickey. The Blue Jays are building a package around d'Arnaud.
   157. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4325622)
Snydergaard sounds pretty good, though I wonder what else the Mets will be throwing in.
   158. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4325624)
MLB prospect watch has a good writeup of Snydergaard. Not close to the majors, but very promising. Any idea where he ranks in the Jays system?

   159. Banta Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4325625)
Aaron Sanchez in the deal now too.

If that was true, the other player could be anyone and it would still be a good deal for the Mets.
   160. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4325635)
Sickels has Snydergaard 2nd and Sanchez 3rd.
   161. Obo Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4325640)
I'm getting nervous. I know we're talking about the Cy Young winner here, but this is starting to sound very expensive for the Jays.
   162. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4325645)
I'm nervous that Ike Davis is going to Toronto. But happy that we're really talking about the top prospects.
   163. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4325646)
This is just about the perfect time for the Jays to make a run at the AL East. The Rays are still broke, the Red Sox are recovering from a disaster, the Orioles aren't that good, and the Yankees got hit in the head and think they're the Orioles. I really like what the Jays are doing - it's a tough division, and a two-year window like 2013-2014 won't come along too often.
   164. Dan Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4325649)
I'm nervous that Ike Davis is going to Toronto. But happy that we're really talking about the top prospects.


This wouldn't surprise me at all either. I think it's gotta include one of Davis or Duda.
   165. RJ in TO Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4325650)
I agree with Matt. The AL East is about as wide open as it's been in years. I'd obviously like it if the Jays could keep all these prospects, but I'd also like it if they could make it back to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years.
   166. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4325654)
If the Mets can get Snydergaard and Sanchez in this deal, they will have a pretty impressive cadre of young arms. Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Sanchez, Snydergaard, Familia, Gee, and Meija. Young pitching will usually break your heart but I can live with that haul.
   167.   Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4325656)
There is zero chance they have all those pitchers.
   168. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4325658)
I'd guess a deal in the range of Dickey/Davis/Thole for d'Arnaud/(Sanchez or Syndegaard)/two C-prospects seems mostly reasonable on both sides.
   169. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4325662)
I would hate to lose Davis. Maybe that's the fanboy in me, but, it's true.
   170. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4325665)
I would hate to lose Davis. Maybe that's the fanboy in me, but, it's true.

This. I know he didn't have the best year but he did hit 32 homers and drew 66 walks. He's never going to be a guy who hits .300 consistently but I think he's definitely capable of hitting for a good enough average to get to a .350 OBP. One year with a poor BABIP isn't enough to get me down on his potential.
   171. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4325666)
Not sure why people think Ike is getting traded in this deal. There is literally zero indication of that. It doesn't even make sense given the players currently under discussion.

It's going to end up being Dickey/Thole/(Flores?) for D'Arnaud/Syndergaard/Buck or something pretty close to that.
   172. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:54 PM (#4325670)
Not sure why people think Ike is getting traded in this deal. There is literally zero indication of that. It doesn't even make sense given the players currently under discussion.
Agreed there have been no reports of Davis moving.

It makes sense because the Jays need a 1B/DH, and they're reportedly sending along a top 50 pitching prospect along with a near-MLB ready top-20 catching prospect. I was trying to figure out what more the Mets might be sending. If they get Sanchez or Syndegaard along with d'Arnaud, without giving up any more real talent, that's a very nice trade for the Mets. Certainly, it could happen.
   173. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 15, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4325673)
I'd bet it has to include one of Familia/Flores/Mejia, any one of whom is certainly expendable.
   174. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4325697)
Ike going was a Twitter rumor. No idea if it was based on anything real. Also, if the Jays really are offering up such a prospect haul, they must be asking for more, and Ike is a good chip that fits with their team.
   175. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 06:39 PM (#4325699)
I'm nervous that Ike Davis is going to Toronto. But happy that we're really talking about the top prospects.
I know his stock dropped last season, but his last four months were huge, and he's still cheap. They can't be thinking of moving Davis and sticking Duda at 1B, can they? It's where Duda belongs, but let him belong there somewhere else, if it means keeping Davis in the fold.

This is just about the perfect time for the Jays to make a run at the AL East. The Rays are still broke, the Red Sox are recovering from a disaster, the Orioles aren't that good, and the Yankees got hit in the head and think they're the Orioles. I really like what the Jays are doing - it's a tough division, and a two-year window like 2013-2014 won't come along too often.
Great summary, and probably why the rumors sound good for the Mets side of things. The Jays can really use Dickey right now.

I'd guess a deal in the range of Dickey/Davis/Thole for d'Arnaud/(Sanchez or Syndegaard)/two C-prospects seems mostly reasonable on both sides.
Solid, cheap back up catcher coming off a down year; solid, cheap, GG potential starter at 1B coming off a down year; dirt cheap, solid Cy Young winner signable for two more years at a reasonable price, in return for a terrific but often injured catching prospect, a very promising pitching prospect, and filler?

That's not a deal I'd make.
   176. Lassus Posted: December 15, 2012 at 07:45 PM (#4325727)
Yeah, Dickey AND Davis deserves a bigger haul, and I just don't think that's fanboy talk. Four players hit more HR than Davis in the NL last year, his OPS stunk because even with that he started hitting late. He is not a throw-in.
   177. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 15, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4325734)
Definitely.

Lefties just killed Davis in 2012 (and 2011), but in 2010 he was fine against them. I remember thinking 2010 meant he turned a corner and had overcome his minor league platoon issues, but maybe not.

Maybe he's just miscast without a platoon partner, and he's an All-Star from the right side, but should sit against lefties.

Davis is .266/.356/.501/.857 against righties for his career, but only .217/.281/.361/.643 versus lefties.

Subtracting at BBRef and a lefthanded reliever can roll the ball to the plate and get him out. Could be he's just being asked to do something he can't (the sign of a poor organization), and after three years it's time to admit that for 120 games a year, he can be star, but not for all 162.
   178. Lassus Posted: December 15, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4325743)
I have to give one more year before I reach that conclusion, but I'm just an optimist.
   179. RJ in TO Posted: December 15, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4325748)
Being an optimist and a Mets fan seems like a bad combination.
   180. ...and Toronto selects: Troy Tulowitzki Posted: December 15, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4325777)
If the Mets can get Snydergaard and Sanchez in this deal, they will have a pretty impressive cadre of young arms. Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Sanchez, Snydergaard, Familia, Gee, and Meija. Young pitching will usually break your heart but I can live with that haul.


There is zero chance they have all those pitchers.


Snydergaard and Sanchez are not both leaving in the same trade. Pure fantasy. Sanchez's name hasn't even been mentioned in print as being involved, only in here by someone. Not that i'm opposed to trading either one of them in the right deal, personally.
   181. ...and Toronto selects: Troy Tulowitzki Posted: December 15, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4325785)
Sanchez's name hasn't even been mentioned in print as being involved, only in here by someone.


And to update on myself, no less, Martino just now is saying what McCullough had indeed said a few hours ago (I have now found), that "Syndergaard and Sanchez have been discussed". McCullough's reporting has not been showing up anywhere in the TO Jays news cycle.


Andy McCullough
@McCulloughSL
"Because I guess this was unclear: The Mets wouldn't get BOTH Syndergaard and Sanchez back. Just one. If at all."
   182. depletion Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4325835)
It's supposed to be narrowed down to D'Arnaud, Synderblock, Buck and a non-big-name prospect for Dickey, Thole and a non-big-name prospect. Also Mets get cash to pay some of Buck's salary. Not too bad compared to some of the alleged alternatives. But the Mets are going to be really bad this year. I wish they could keep RA, but without the funds to get a FA outfielder or two they were headed to 74 wins again. Now they're headed toward 64. Or 4.
   183. Lassus Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4325844)
I'm not particularly sure how I feel about this deal. I think badly.
   184. PreservedFish Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4325848)
I hate hate hate trading Dickey. But if it must be so, this seems like a solid deal to me.
   185. JJ1986 Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:58 PM (#4325851)
I think it's a good return for Dickey, but I'd rather not be dumping Thole at the nadir of his value.
   186. Lassus Posted: December 16, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4325858)
The number of non-major-league-ready prospects we are receiving in this possible deal for major-league players troubles me.
   187. PreservedFish Posted: December 16, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4325859)
Thole will have a long career, but I don't know how good he'll ever be. And I don't know if he ever had much trade value.
   188. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 16, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4325863)
I love Dickey. If they get two top prospects back, I'm happy with dealing him.

If they can get a young OFer I'd be really happy with the offseason...what is Arizona looking for for Upton?
   189. billyshears Posted: December 16, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4325866)
I thought Thole would be better, but he's not. We don't have quite enough evidence to throw in the towel on him, but we're getting there. Parting with him to get D'Arnaud doesn't trouble me, though D'Arnaud is older than I though. He's actually only a bit more than 2 years younger than Thole.

Provided the unnamed Mets prospect is not a significant piece (and I don't imagine it is), this is a good return for Dickey. I think this is the right move, but as I mentioned the other day, it still kind of makes me sad. The Mets need to do things like this so that they can be good again, but that's only true because the Wilpons lack the decency to sell the team, as they are unable to support it in any respectable manner.
   190. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 16, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4325870)
This is the Mets. If they trade Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they keep Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they extend Dickey, it will blow up in their face.
   191. ...and Toronto selects: Troy Tulowitzki Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:03 AM (#4325871)

FWIW, Jim Callis of Baseball America, on Twitter less than an hour ago said this in three consecutive Tweets:

"I admire & respect R.A. Dickey, but I wouldn't trade Travis d'Arnaud & Noah Syndergaard to get a 38-year-old knuckleballer.#BlueJays"

"Re responses to my Dickey tweet: Recognize his value, don't want to give up potential all-star C (d'Arnaud) & No. 2 SP (Syndergaard)..."

"...especially when that potential all-star C & No. 2 SP would be under my control for six years each."


   192. JJ1986 Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4325875)
Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.
   193. JE (Jason) Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4325876)
FWIW, Jim Callis of Baseball America, on Twitter less than an hour ago said this in three consecutive Tweets:

"I admire & respect R.A. Dickey, but I wouldn't trade Travis d'Arnaud & Noah Syndergaard to get a 38-year-old knuckleballer.#BlueJays"

"Re responses to my Dickey tweet: Recognize his value, don't want to give up potential all-star C (d'Arnaud) & No. 2 SP (Syndergaard)..."

"...especially when that potential all-star C & No. 2 SP would be under my control for six years each."

Tell him to keep his voice down!
   194. Lassus Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:20 AM (#4325878)
Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.

This is why I'm shocked everyone is so high on this gamble.
   195. ...and Toronto selects: Troy Tulowitzki Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4325882)
Again, FWIW, the Jays traded 3 Top 10 prospects in the deal for Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle and Bonifacio but none of them were the Jays consensus Top 2 prospects*. The Mets are getting those for basically Dickey and his knuckeball experienced battery mate (apparently). The only additional talent added was Alvarez and Escobar, whose trade value was rock bottom.


*Fangraphs, had Sanchez and Syndergaard swap places
   196. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:38 AM (#4325883)
I don't particularly like this trade. Thole had a bad year last season but he did have nearly 700 plate appearances with a .350 OBP and a 97 OPS+ prior to 2012. He should be entering his prime. H's never going to be a star but I still think he can be a starter. John Buck won't be part of the next good Met team and I'd rather the Mets sent that 6 million on other players. I personally think Thole is a more valuable commodity at their relative prices. That means that the Mets got fewer than 2 good prospects for a Cy Young winner who will be paid a relative pittance next year. I can't say the Mets got a great deal here.

I would have preferred a Dickey for Derek Holland deal myself.
   197. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4325884)
The number of non-major-league-ready prospects we are receiving in this possible deal for major-league players troubles me.
The drawback to major league ready guys is that they usually aren't all that hot. If they are, teams very, very rarely trade them. To get real upside, you've got to gamble a little and go for the 20 and 21 year olds in A ball.

Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.

This is why I'm shocked everyone is so high on this gamble.
I think it's the upside. The more of a sure thing a minor leaguer is, the less upside you get. The Mets could get a better bet, but he'd be a AAA guy who had a good shot at being Dillon Gee, or a hair better; but not a lot better.

This is the Mets. If they trade Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they keep Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they extend Dickey, it will blow up in their face.
Jesus. This is probably true, isn't it? In which case, keep him! That has to be the answer to this riddle!

Parting with him to get D'Arnaud doesn't trouble me, though D'Arnaud is older than I though. He's actually only a bit more than 2 years younger than Thole.
He'll be going into his age 24 season. For a guy who is essentially fully developed as a hitter (at least, as developed as he's going to get in the minors) and was picked as the top D catcher in the Eastern League, that seems like a perfectly okay age for his rookie season.

I'm not particularly sure how I feel about this deal. I think badly.
I hate it, personally, but D'Arnaud is one hell of a prospect. If he can stay healthy he might have a Piazza lite career, with good defense. I'd still rather the Mets kept Dickey, but if you're going to trade your stars, get young guys with all-star upside, and not a grab bag of fourth OFer, fifth starters, and backup middle infielders.

I don't like some of Alderson's moves, but he's smart, and he's smart enough to go for top quality when he's got top quality to deal.

edit: D'Arnaud doesn't walk enough to have a Piazza lite career, so scratch that. Still, he hits for power, hits for average, and his D is very solid. There's a lot to like.
   198. PreservedFish Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:42 AM (#4325885)
Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.

The Mets don't really need to be looking for guarantees, do they? High potential is a good thing.
   199. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4325888)
How good is Syndergaard compared to Wheeler?
   200. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 16, 2012 at 01:58 AM (#4325889)
@196--I don't like it either, but I think the Mets were giving up on Thole in any case. He had no power in the minors and wasn't developing any in the majors. He got a little worse in 2011 and a lot worse in 2012. He needs a platoon partner just to have any value at all. When you eke out 1 bWar in a thousand plate appearances, it's probably time for your club to explore other options. (fWar is a little kinder, but the last two years still aren't pretty.) Still, isn't Buck probably done? 32 years old, OPS+ dropped from 102 to 87, to 75, and can't hit his weight? I don't know if Buck even qualifies as a warm body at this point.
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