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Thursday, May 30, 2013

Megdal: Yankee Odds Piece

Megdal’s latest…

So with the stipulation that someone or someones will likely step forward and give the Yankees enough hitting to support a strong rotation and ridiculous bullpen, here are your betting odds for just who that will be over the next few months.

Some random guy currently hitting .180 for your favorite team, 2-1: Roger Bernadina? Chris Heisey? Jesus Guzman? Whatever, it’s totally going to happen, and it’s going to be annoying.

Ichiro Suzuki, 10-1: It should concern the Yankees that Suzuki, who effectively had two good weeks over two years in 2011-12, is at a 67 O.P.S.+ in 2013, and is 39. He’s this high only because it is easy to imagine Suzuki coming up with one more key burst of greatness, and with a two-year deal and few outfield givens on the roster, there’s a decent chance the Yankees give him the opportunity.

Vernon Wells, 20-1: Sure, Vernon Wells has 10 home runs already, and was a terrific player as recently as 2010. But even his respectable .770 O.P.S. in 2013 is essentially an April-fueled illusion: he’s at .635 in May, after a .911 April. This isn’t a Yankee thing, with Wells posting an .856 O.P.S. from August 11 through September 13 last season for the Angels. It simply reflects that Wells, at this point in his career, is capable of one good-to-great month per season. He’s probably had his already in 2013.

Alex Rodriguez, 25-1: This might be low. Rodriguez posted a respectable 113 O.P.S.+ in 2012, and was good as recently as last July. Nor does this reflect the absurd fantasy in some quarters that the Yankees will figure out a way to void Rodriguez’s contract. But to ask a player just off of hip surgery, who turns 38 in July, to come back and provide offensive punch to a lineup, let alone to do it while under the microscope that Rodriguez will face, seems like a long shot to me.

Derek Jeter, 30-1: Take off the name, and what are you left with? A shortstop, turning 39 in June, who broke his ankle last fall, spent months rehabbing it after surgery, and broke it again in spring training. Because he’s Derek Jeter, he’ll get every opportunity to earn his way back onto the field, and he’s apparently going to try his best to do just that. But betting against the ravages of age is a sucker’s wager.

Repoz Posted: May 30, 2013 at 09:30 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: May 30, 2013 at 10:13 AM (#4455587)
Vernon Wells, 20-1: Sure, Vernon Wells has 10 home runs already, and was a terrific player as recently as 2010. But even his respectable .770 O.P.S. in 2013 is essentially an April-fueled illusion: he’s at .635 in May, after a .911 April. This isn’t a Yankee thing, with Wells posting an .856 O.P.S. from August 11 through September 13 last season for the Angels. It simply reflects that Wells, at this point in his career, is capable of one good-to-great month per season. He’s probably had his already in 2013.


Strong analysis, this! Thank God for statistically-minded writers like Howard Megdal to provide the thinking fan with sustenance.
   2. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2013 at 11:07 AM (#4455675)
Thanks, 'zop! It's a living.
   3. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: May 30, 2013 at 11:13 AM (#4455681)
Thanks, 'zop! It's a living.


But not much of one, amirite?
   4. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2013 at 11:24 AM (#4455701)
No complaints. Take care, 'zop.
   5. ESPaul Posted: May 30, 2013 at 12:01 PM (#4455772)
I like this piece. It's clever. And a reminder that Ichiro has been truly, truly an out machine. How's his defense this year on the advanced metrics?
   6. valuearbitrageur Posted: May 30, 2013 at 12:24 PM (#4455802)
Gee, the Mes take a couple games from the Yanks, and Mets fans immediately pile on, and Yankee fans immediately lash out like babies.

I love it.
   7. villageidiom Posted: May 30, 2013 at 01:10 PM (#4455861)
Some random guy currently hitting .180 for your favorite team, 2-1: Roger Bernadina? Chris Heisey? Jesus Guzman? Whatever, it’s totally going to happen, and it’s going to be annoying.
I think you're being too pessimistic here.
   8. Bote Man Posted: May 30, 2013 at 01:43 PM (#4455906)
I can fully see Roger Bernadina going to the Yankees and tearing the cover off the ball.
   9. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 30, 2013 at 02:21 PM (#4455952)
The Yankees have already glommed onto two utility infielders DFA'd by the Rockies: Chris Nelson hit .222/.243/.278, and Reid Brignac is hitting .071/.071/.071. Maybe Jonathan Herrera will be the one to turn into a star.
   10. Ron J2 Posted: May 30, 2013 at 02:57 PM (#4455994)
Nice piece Howard.
   11. HowardMegdal Posted: May 30, 2013 at 05:03 PM (#4456133)
Thanks, Ron. Really appreciate that.
   12. villageidiom Posted: May 30, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4456148)
The Yankees have already glommed onto two utility infielders DFA'd by the Rockies: Chris Nelson hit .222/.243/.278, and Reid Brignac is hitting .071/.071/.071. Maybe Jonathan Herrera will be the one to turn into a star.
They really are plugging in anyone they can find, seemingly counting on the Aaron Small Method™ to rescue them. This could work out, or it could be like the 2000 Red Sox. (Rico Brogna! Sean Berry! Ed Sprague! Steve Ontiveros! Gary Gaetti! Bernard Gilkey!)
   13. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: May 30, 2013 at 06:21 PM (#4456186)
I think the Yankees concept relies around having best-in-the-AL MLB scouting and coaching. Concept being, they're very good at identifying and coaching talent at the MLB level, so get guys in, get them on the field and coached by their guys, and see if you can't pull out the diamonds fast enough before the burn rate of playing 550 OPS guys kills you. Given their track record it's not the world's worst plan, not that they have any alternatives.

What I never can understand is why the senior management tolerates the mediocrity of the MiLB guys, which as I understand it is a totally different arm of the front office from a management POV, when the MLB side is so excellent. The Cards, who are IMO the only team with better scouting and front office at the MLB level, also have kickass MiLB.

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