If you look at Adam Jones’ offensive stats, they have been trending upward for three years now. It makes you wonder just how good the Orioles center fielder can be and how much better he can get.
When MLB Network recently picked its list of the current 10 best center fielders, guest host Bill James rated Jones fifth and analyst and former Oriole Bill Ripken placed Jones third among all center fielders behind only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutcheon.
Ripken said of Jones that he got a lot of big hits despite a less than 100-RBI season. He said defensive metrics don’t do Jones’ defensive skills justice and that he should be a Most Valuable Player candidate this year. Jones finished sixth in the MVP vote for 2012.
The good news for Orioles fans is that Jones has established himself already as an All-Star caliber player. His numbers keep getting better and, at 27, he is coming into the prime years of his career.
Jones’ doubles total the last three years has gone from 25 to 26 to 39 last year. His homers went from 19 to 25 to 32. His OBP increased from .325 to .319 to .334 and his slugging went from .442 to .466 to .505. That moved his OPS from .767 to .785 to .839.
Repoz
Posted: January 16, 2013 at 10:25 AM |
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1. JJ1986 Posted: January 16, 2013 at 11:01 AM (#4348065)What?
It's on a 3 year upward trend with a minor bump in year 2.
On average, as would be expected, these players improved their walk rate through their peak seasons, from 5.5% to 6.7%. None became prolific base-takers, but a few (Harold Baines, Sammy Sosa, Brian McRae, and Warren Cromartie) improved over the 10% threshold, and Jose Cardenal came pretty close. Most of the guys on the list didn't improve much - Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Jeff Francoeur, Vernon Wells, Juan Gonzalez, Bill Buckner. So there's hope, but not a whole ton.
I thought there might be a correlation between power and improved walk rate - Willie Wilson and Bill Buckner had little power and little improvement in walk rate - but obviously no one hit for power like Rice and JuanGone, and for the whole sample there's no correlation at all.
There is, however, a powerful correlation between zero improvement in walk rate and the inability to lay off the ######### slider low and away.
I moved away slowly, not turning my back on him. Haven't spoken to him since.
Perhaps it's the lack of light in my mother's basement, but this is not what it makes me think. It makes me think Mr. Jones is just about as funky as he can be and perhaps due for some regression to his mean.
-ISO- walk rate
0.000 07.6%
0.100 08.3%
0.200 10.2%
0.300 13.5%
In general, walk rate increases wiht ISO squared.
Guys like Sosa and BigMac and Bonds obviously drew many more BBs as their power went up.
Yes, the arrow of causality could run both ways.
It's the player who spells it incorrectly.
this childish projection is what republicans do with the national debt!
heh. Go back 4 years:
.335, .325, .319, .334
then an equally plausible narrative can be "His OBP had been trending downward, but last year he arrested that fall."
There's your mistake right there. Far as I can tell, there's only one.
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