Isn't a lot of it that Brian Roberts has played like 80 games the past two years combined?

Isn't a lot of it that Brian Roberts has played like 80 games the past two years combined?

His RBI totals? Sure. The fact that his power has evaporated, no.

Not clutch anymore, huh?

His RBI totals? Sure. The fact that his power has evaporated, no.

Yeah, I don't know what the point of listing his AVG and OPS is. Show us his SLG if you're interested in exploring why his RBI totals fell.

Show us his SLG if you're interested in exploring why his RBI totals fell.

Tell that to Lave Cross!

Also he had 20 extra-base hits with RISP in 2007, 25 in 2009 but just eight last season.

In terms of explaining RBI, you don't really care about XBH (or SLG or ISO) with RISP. Not all singles score a runner from second of course while doubles will in all but the freakiest of circumstances, but XBH are related to RBI mainly in their ability to score guys from first and scoring yourself on a HR.

driving in RISP is about BA*
driving in a runner on 1st is about ISO
driving in yourself is about HR

For Markakis 2011, the main issue was the drop from a guy who hit 40-45 doubles a year to hitting 31. The HR drop didn't help but wasn't huge. The overall BA drop wasn't huge although the BARISP was but presumably just random.

Unfortunately the stats aren't often broken out that way and the number of PA for a given baserunner situation is rather small. But we should move away from the term "scoring position" -- as a phrase, its impact on baseball strategy is probably second (a distant second) only to "save." Back in the day, when the Cubs leadoff guy would get on, Baylor would often (well, too often) sacrifice him over to second so put him in "scoring position" for his "big RBI man" Sosa, apparently not noticing that Sosa was hitting 85 XBH a year or over 40% of his hits. Runners on first were in "scoring position" for Sosa in those years. Similarly somebody like Ryan Howard -- nearly half his hits are XBH.

Obviously the more RISP, the more RBI (on average) but for most middle-of-the-order hitters, we should probably be more interested in just runners on in explaining RBI.

In his great 2001, Sosa had 103 XBH.

*Unless you are Ichiro and of course the speed of the runner on 2nd (or 1st) matters.

So his SLG declined. Any reason to think it will get much better? Last year he was choking up on the bat and didn't look like he was even trying to hit for power for long stretches. I don't know if that was a hitting coach thing, or if he was nursing an injury or what. Unless that approach changes, I don't see him driving the ball as well this year either.

Ok, how about this question- is Markakis likely to regain his hitting form from 2009, or even 2010? At times last year, it looked to my untrained eye that he had no plan when he was hitting. I like him and want him to do well, but I'm skeptical that the power or the average will return. I guess he finished the year at .284 and had an BABIP 23 points under his career average, so maybe it's not as bad as I remembered.

Markakis had an abdominal injury for much of the year and had offseason surgery. Melewski knows this. I didn't RTFA though.

In terms of explaining RBI, you don't really care about XBH (or SLG or ISO) with RISP. Not all singles score a runner from second of course while doubles will in all but the freakiest of circumstances, but XBH are related to RBI mainly in their ability to score guys from first and scoring yourself on a HR.

Good point. I had somehow missed the RISP element. Either way, including OPS really doesn't make any sense.

Markakis had an abdominal injury for much of the year and had offseason surgery. Melewski knows this. I didn't RTFA though.

Yeah, but it's not as if this is the first year his power dropped off. It's been almost straight downhill since the 2008 that made him look like a future MVP.

I'm disappointed in Markakis, too, but tagging him "history" is a little cold.

#6 driving in RISP is about BA*

Even with RISP, power matters. The rate that a runner on second scores on a single is lower that is commonly assumed. That's not to say that RISP is insignificant in explaining rbi. It's just still less important than ISO even with RISP.

Anybody who's really interested in the dynamics of driving in runs should check out Tom Ruane's paper at Retrosheet.

Even with RISP, power matters. The rate that a runner on second scores on a single is lower that is commonly assumed.

OK, looking at AL batting splits from last year:

Runner on second only:

hits - 1596
2B - 331
3B - 42
HR - 135
RBI - 1247

Assume all 2B and 3b score the runner, and HRs of course drive in 2. That removes 508 hits and 643 RBI, leaving 1088 singles driving in 604 runners, a 56% rate. I don't know if it's possible to find out how many were infield singles, or if it's necessary.

Assume all 2B and 3b score the runner, and HRs of course drive in 2. That removes 508 hits and 643 RBI, leaving 1088 singles driving in 604 runners, a 56% rate. I don't know if it's possible to find out how many were infield singles, or if it's necessary.

That is much lower than I would have guessed. I'd have pegged it somewhere around 70 percent (I can't imagine IF hits account for much of that total).

Good point. I had somehow missed the RISP element. Either way, including OPS really doesn't make any sense.

Take the most extreme example, Barry Binds 2004

with RISP, .394 BA, 1.698 OPS, 55 RBI.

So when comparing 2009 to 2011, this is what stands out to me.

2009 had 29 more AB with RISP
2009 had 28 more RBI

Seems pretty obvious.

But yeah, he has lost quite a bit of SLG the last few years. I thought for sure he was going to maintain that 300/400/500 line he put up at age 24. But now his SLG has dropped three straight years.

NICK MARKAKIS IN MY LONG RUNNING BASEBALL MOGUL GAME:

career 291/361/459

2767 Hits. 305 home runs. 629! doubles. 6 ASG, 4 gold gloves. 2 world championships. Lifetime Oriole.


GET ON IT ACTUAL NICK MARKAKIS.

Lifetime Oriole.

Given the contract he signed, that one seems pretty likely if he keeps playing the way he's been playing.

#14 The info I have is old, but I'd be surprised if it's changed much over the years. About 63% of runners on second scored on singles to a corner outfielder. And it was something like 65% on singles to center (can't find the numbers for this right now -- going from memory)

As I said, much lower than is commonly assumed.

So when comparing 2009 to 2011, this is what stands out to me.

2009 had 29 more AB with RISP
2009 had 28 more RBI

Seems pretty obvious.

In 2009, Markakis averaged about 40% of an RBI for each PA with RISP (.4072164948453608 RBI/PA). If he'd maintained this ratio, he would've had 15 or 16 more RBI in 2009 than he did in 2011, not 28 more.

Markakis is about the most over hyped ball player to fall short on the hype without an injury excuse.

Take the most extreme example, Barry Binds 2004

with RISP, .394 BA, 1.698 OPS, 55 RBI.

Who is Barry Binds? Amazing talent anyway...

^ somebody should sign him

Markakis is about the most over hyped ball player to fall short on the hype without an injury excuse.

I don't know, Alex Rios' 2006-2007 looks quite a bit like Markakis' 2007-2008 (not to mention the home run derby excitement)...at least Markakis just fell down to mediocre after that.

EDIT: I suppose Rios had the staph infection that sidelined him for much of 2006. But he came out and was good again in 2007, so I'm not sure his plummet is injury related.

He obviously meant Barry Bends.

Sure but Markakis hit 2.5-2.8 times more singles than doubles (more than 4 times last year) so RBI with RISP is still driven by singles. Also RISP includes runners on 3rd (whether there's a runner on 2nd) so double vs. single only makes a difference a handful of times. "Power" hitters might also be more likely to score a guy on 2B with a single due to the OF playing deep.

Now ... Markakis ain't though. 36 RBI on 54 singles with a man on 2B only. But still only 22 RBI on doubles (assuming they always scored the guy) vs. 36 for singles. The ISO with RISP effect is substantially HR for many hitters I would guess as he's got 16 RBI on just 8 HRs. Anyway turn those 22 doubles into a standard Markakis single and he loses 7 RBI (out of 77); turn the HR into a single and he loses 9-10. The ISO effect is as much driving himself in as driving others in. (That is we really want to look at runners on base driven in without the HR if you want to look at the relationship between runners on base and RBI ... effects of having runners on on rate stats ignored.)

With a runner on 1st only, assuming he has no RBI singles, he has 22 RBI on 56 doubles. For the 2011 AL, it was 308 on 764 which is almost exactly the same rate. HRs totally dominate here with 436 HR so even in terms of runners scored (i.e. ignoring HR), it's not close.

Back to singles with guys on 2nd only, 2011 AL had 604 RBI on 1088 singles, 331 on doubles, 42 on triples and 135 HR. Replace the XBH with standard singles and you lose about 200 runners scored (about 18%). All told, 820 extra bases scored 200 extra runners (not including the batter on HR) -- that looks like a weak effect of ISO on RBI with a man on 2nd. 2226 XBs score 821 runners in first only situations (assuming singles score zero).