Memories of Kevin Malone: Guillermo Mota’s new self real or fake?

Mota’s current ERA (4.36) and WHIP (1.39) are very similar to the numbers he has posted in the past 4 years. Furthermore, his FIP of 4.54 is nearly identical to his past 2 seasons. So while Mota was never as bad as he was at the start of the season, he’s certainly not as a good he has recently shown either.

When I went looking for signs of improvement, I found it hard to find legitimate reasons. Mota’s release points have been consistent throughout the year, his fastball was thrown harder at the beginning of the year, and his slider was sharper before the resurgence as well. However, I did find a more legitimate and quantifiable reason for his improvement: a plummeting Leverage Index. In other words, he’s being used in situations that hardly affect the outcome of the game at all.

Last year with the Brewers, Mota’s Leverage Index was 1.33, this year it’s a mere 0.70, which is in the bottom 20 of all qualified relievers in the majors. If a quick peek at the Leverage Index play log isn’t enough to convince you that this matters, then consider that his OPS against in low leverage situations (.679) is almost half of what it is in high leverage situations (1.211), so it’s pretty obvious that Mota has benefited from the unimportant situations he has been thrown into.