As a matter of fact, it should have been Scutaro from the very beginning.

Now that's the classic definition of 'Sour Grapes', right? I always get them confused.

Some grapes really are sour.

Scutaro is a more complete shortstop than Alex Gonzalez. He’ll come at a higher price. But what do you care how much money the Sox dish out? You’re not paying it.

I guess we don't have to care, but it gives us something to do in this post-industrial era of knowledge work.

Since I do care, I don't want to have to give up draft picks for Scutaro. Someone was saying (can't remember if it was here or over at SOSH) that the Sox will only sign Scutaro if they also sign a bigger FA (like Holliday), thus reducing the impact of the draft picks given up for him. Not sure if this makes complete sense, but if we don't sign Holliday or Lackey, I just don't think Scutaro is worth the price of the contract + the draft picks.

Now that's the classic definition of 'Sour Grapes', right? I always get them confused.

There have been many debates on this board about the meaning and correct use of the term sour grapes. Let's just say that there is no consensus here and that you can use it however you like to use it.

I have seen some Houston articles linking the Red Sox to Miguel Tejada. Tejada's defense at shortstop is iffy at this point. Would the Red Sox really consider Tejada?

"Sour grapes" comes from Aesop's fable of the Fox and the Grapes. The Fox is walking through a field and sees some grapes hanging from a tree. He thinks to himself, "I'm thirsty, and those grapes look like just the thing." He takes a running jump, but can't quite reach them. He tries again, and misses again. After several more goes, he begins to understand that he will never reach them.


"Bah," he says to himself, "They're probably sour anyway."


Anyway, there's not a lot of ambiguity there. "Sour grapes" is a phrase referring to the dismissal of something you want as inadequate when in fact the problem is that you can't have it.

He'll be 34 years old, coming off a career year. OPS+ overall has been 92, and it is rare (ignoring a SS with the initials of DJ for the moment) to improve your defense as a SS at that age. Pass.

Scutaro's an average offensive player right now. A bit above average on defense, and with the SS position adjustment, he's at least a 3 Win player above replacement level. Fangraphs has him at 4.5 last year and 2.7 in 2008. At 3 WAR he's worth more than 12 million per year. Plenty of teams should be bidding if the rumored 6/18 is anything close to what it takes to sign him.

Six sounds a bit long but three dollars per year sounds quite reasonable. :)

Would the Red Sox really consider Tejada?

Tejada is also a Type A, right? If the Sox are willing to give up draft picks to fill the SS hole, then I think they'd much rather sign Scutaro.

Why haven't we heard Adam Everett's name attached to the Sox? For all of their infatuation with Alex Gonzalez, Everett only ten days older, had a higher UZR and was worth about half a win more than Gonzalez was this year.

Well do you want to improve this team or not? At present, unless I'm missing someone the best in-house SS option for the Red Sox is Lowrie, who ZIPS projects at an OPS+ of 80 with average defence. Apart from Scutaro, the best free agent SS looks to be O-Cab, who ZIPS projects at an OPS+ of 86 also with average defense (note MN can't offer him arbitration so at least h wouldn't cost a pick). Scutaro looks like a pretty good upgrade over those two for the next couple of years and I think the Sox could get him on a two year deal (possibly with some kind of vesting option). Maybe 2/$13mn.

Given the alternatives, i wouldn't worry to much about the pick (singular) the Red Sox would have to give up for him. Given the alternatives, he is a pretty big upgrade and its not as if the Sox desparately need to restock their minor league system.

Are late 1st round picks usually of little value after you subtract out the bonus costs?

Considering Toronto's recent financial decisions, it wouldn't shock me if Scutaro wasn't offered arbitration at all.

Considering Toronto's recent financial decisions, it wouldn't shock me if they tried to burn down the SkyDome for the insurance money.

Rogers Centre insuranburn?

bag full of oily rags, fifty cent lighter
dreams of the playoffs burning ever brighter
there's a lot of ways to make money in this world
but i can't recommend insurance fraud.

Aren't the Mountain Goats great?

Toronto is offering him insurance.

Considering Toronto's recent financial decisions, it wouldn't shock me if Scutaro wasn't offered arbitration at all.

The Blue Jays will apparently offer Scutaro arbitration, even though they now have Gonzalez. From Friday's Toronto Sun:

However, the Jays will offer arbitration to Scutaro in order to obtain the two draft picks that will come their way if he signs with another team. In the unlikely event that Scutaro doesn't receive a multi-year deal from another team that's to his liking and accepts arbitration, the Jays say they can accommodate him.

"Marco can play all over the place (left field and third as well)," Anthopoulos said. "We think there's enough playing time and getting Marco back, we'd also have a leadoff guy, as well. We'd certainly welcome him back and is something we took a look and we planned to have him back if that scenario was to play out."

Aren't the Mountain Goats great?

Yup.

Tejada is also a Type A, right? If the Sox are willing to give up draft picks to fill the SS hole, then I think they'd much rather sign Scutaro.

Yes, Tejada is Type A. I doubt that the Astros will offer him arbitration though.

Yes, Tejada is Type A. I doubt that the Astros will offer him arbitration though.

Well they won't have the option to once he signs that 1/5m offer the Astros give him!

The Sox could be looking at Tejada for 3B as well (depending on price and what they can find at SS).

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox sit tight for a while until they find out where they are in the Halladay sweepstakes. The fans should only care about the $6M that might go to Scutaro (or Tejada or OCab or whomever) if it impacts their ability to extend Halladay.

I wouldn't worry about the pick ... plus they can get it back if they let Bay go. Scutaro's not great, but he should be at least an average SS over the next couple of seasons and, as Toronto says, at worst you end up with a good utility man. He's worth at least 1, probably 2-3 wins a season over what Boston has right now and, barring their big Hanley trade, they're not going to find anything better this year or probably next (Jeter! :-).

Yes, Tejada is Type A. I doubt that the Astros will offer him arbitration though.

Why would they when they can re-sign him for <$5M?

I wouldn't worry about the pick ... plus they can get it back if they let Bay go.

This has been mentioned a couple times but a) they get the Bay pick whether they lose one for Scutaro or not, so the 2 are really unrelated, and b) there's no guarantee that they get a 1st rounder for Bay.

Have to wonder if Melvin didn't move too soon with Hardy.

Harvey, the Sox offered Bowden, and they were never going to give up Buchholz or Bard for him. Melvin got the player he wanted for Hardy.

He'll be 34 years old, coming off a career year. OPS+ overall has been 92, and it is rare (ignoring a SS with the initials of DJ for the moment) to improve your defense as a SS at that age. Pass.

He doesn't have to improve his defense. His defense is damn good. And 92 from a good defensive shortstop is just fine.

I used to follow Horse Racing a bit and one of the books I read on it suggested "if you miss the wedding, don't show up for the funeral." It seems to me what you want is the next Marco Scutaro (28 year old freebie minor leaguer), not one coming off of his biggest season as a pro.

If you're going to pay a premium for a guy, as the Red Sox are actually in a position to do if available, I think you want more of a sure thing than Scutaro appears to be. The previous to 2009 Scutaro doesn't appear to be much of an upgrade over a healthy Lowrie and certainly lacks any potential upside Lowrie might still have.

One disadvantage teams like the Red Sox and Yankees do face (and I experienced it when I was there) is that they can sometimes be pressured into making moves that the fans/local press think need to be made, even if the front office isn't all that anxious to do it. It appears the Red Sox are getting a lot of pressure to "do something" about shortstop, where it may just be that pursuing a lower profile course of action may be preferable in these circumstances.

Lowrie's injury problems are a concern, but there are worse solutions to a shortstop injury problem than Tug Hulett (and Hulett's former team has one of them as their starter). There comes a point where you're just spending a bunch of money to look like you're addressing a problem without really improving the team to any real extent. This gets the fans off your back, but every team has budget. Even if some budgets are much higher than others, for all of them wasted money is still money you can't spend on other things.

Anyone who gives Marco Scutaro a three year deal, and gives up Type A compensation in order to do so, either does not need to expend resources efficiently, or else is nuts. Assuming no one is nuts, that leaves a potential Scutaro market of the Yankees and Red Sox and I very much doubt the former is interested. That leaves Boston bidding against no one, so I suspect they'll get him reasonably cheap.

Considering Toronto's recent financial decisions, it wouldn't shock me if they tried to burn down the SkyDome for the insurance money.

No doubt. They've had to pay a fortune to buy out JP Ricciardi's lousy signings. Maybe if they had the 15 they ate on Ryan, the 10 they ate on Thomas, the money they ate on Koskie, Hinske, Lighterfluid et al, they could afford to let SkyDome stand.

Even if some budgets are much higher than others, for all of them wasted money is still money you can't spend on other things.

I agree. The team can't possibly be worse than it was last year at short, and they still won 95 games.

Who's the competition for Scutaro?

Orioles, Tigers, Royals, A's, Nationals, Astros, Pirates, Giants, Padres? I don't see any of those giving him a 3 year deal, or even going above 2/$15M.

Who's the competition for Scutaro?

Who's the player competition for Scutaro? Tejada and Cabrera? So that's 9 teams who could use a SS, and 3 decent SS on the FA market.

I wouldn't blame the Giants if they dumped Renteria, but is that feasible? The Nationals have another year of Guzman, and maybe I'm missing something on Everth Cabrera for the Padres.

Merloni's angst towards the Red Sox borders on Hillenbrandian.

It's highly unlikely the Giants dump Renteria. Although if he gets even worse they may just cut him outright in June.

so the 2 are really unrelated

Sorry, my presentation wasn't clear.

1) I wouldn't worry very much about the draft pick.

2) PLUS you get one if Bay leaves anyway.

This current fixation with 19-year-old prospects, 25th picks in the draft, 8th best prospects in a system is totally out of hand these days.

Scutaro projects as, at worst, a league-average SS. That is 2 wins better than what the Red Sox have been putting out there for the last few years. Letting a late 1st round pick stand between you and adding 2 wins a year over the next couple of years while chasing the team with a $200 M payroll is silly.

Philly, you around? What's the average payoff on a #25 pick (or whatever it is the Sox have)? How many years do you usually have to wait for that pick to start paying off?

I won't deny there are alternatives. A year of OCab just might be good enough. Lowrie might learn to hit, field and stay healthy all at the same time. But without Scutaro, my guess is the Red Sox will be trading for AGon or OCab or JWil or some similar "oh my god we need a competent defensive SS now" SS come July. Of course, as with any FA signing, there's a reasonable chance they'll end up there anyway.

It seems to me what you want is the next Marco Scutaro (28 year old freebie minor leaguer), not one coming off of his biggest season as a pro.

Obviously. You also want to build an awesome bullpen out of cheap arms. There aren't many teams that can do either consistently.

The Red Sox can afford to let other teams take the risk of uncovering the next Scutaro or have a gaping hole at SS. They can grab them later when they're established.

I'm surprised nobody is trying to trade for Mike Aviles. I know he had a horrible injury year, but he's a great buy low candidate from a team that isn't trying to get better.

Is Aviles healthy?

Scutaro has started 140 games two seasons (2008 and 2009) in his MLB career. In those seasons, he's averaged out as a 3.6 WAR player.

I think it's reasonable to argue that the Red Sox can do better with a late first round pick than the MLB average because of their willingness to flout Selig and throw some money around. They got Kelly when he slid to them and likely would have taken Porcello if they hadn't given up the pick to sign Lugo, which btw was the last time Boston gave a multi-year contract to the best shortstop in a thin market.

The Dodgers thank the Red Sox for that pick. Chris Withrow is probably the Dodgers best prospect right now.