This and the Hairston signing are the only two things this regime has done that I agree with. Now I hope they move on Justin Upton. But I'm not holding my breath.

from mlbtraderumors:

The Mets and David Wright have agreed to the largest contract in franchise history, according to WFAN's Ed Coleman. Coleman says it's seven years and $122MM in new money, which can be considered an eight-year, $138MM deal if the value of Wright's previously-exercised 2013 club option is included. In that sense, Wright passes Johan Santana's $137.5MM deal from February 2008.

I'll leave people smarter than me to fight over the money. My first (well, second, I'm generally pleased) thought was to wonder if this means Dickey's gone.

I'm please with this deal.

My first (well, second, I'm generally pleased) thought was to wonder if this means Dickey's gone.

I thought the noise was they could afford to do both? But if they're bringing Pelfrey back, that renders Dickey sort of superfluous anyway. How many aces does a staff need?

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Yay! That sounds more than reasonable, especially if you hold the view that salaries are likely to increase over those 8 years.

Our long national nightmare is over.

I see no reason why Dickey couldn't return, unless they plan on going with an $80 million payroll for a few years.

My question about Dickey is less about money and more about how they are working it out mentally in their heads if they are trying to save money. "Well, we showed we are pleasing the fans and willing to spend some money, so if we let Dickey walk it won't be so bad."

Note: I'm not saying I think that's the plan, but I can see the FOs collective mind working this way if they are not going $80M, but still cutting back.

But wouldn't Dickey only be around for a few more years?

Well, I thought they should trade both Wright and Dickey, but there were obviously more tangible and intangible reasons to keep Wright than Dickey. Keeping Wright is obviously a lot more expensive too. The AAV on this deal is reasonable, but I think the last two years (at least) are just dead money, so that changes things a bit. I don't think this is the best option long term for the franchise, but it's not bad, and I can understand why they felt they needed to do it. Maybe they feel this gives them the credibility to trade Dickey.

My question about Dickey is less about money and more about how they are working it out mentally in their heads if they are trying to save money. "Well, we showed we are pleasing the fans and willing to spend some money, so if we let Dickey walk it won't be so bad."

I know right now it looks like sign or trade with Dickey, but they could just keep him to start 2013 and see how it goes-- if he's pitching well, he'll get a little more expensive, but if he prices himself out of the their price range (a second straight Cy Young-level performance would probably do that) they can deal him midyear.

Of all the current Mets, including Wright and Santana, Dickey's easily the most likeable, and I hope they still have him around. Without him, there would have been no reason to watch the team in August and September (other than the joy of Keith, Ron and Gary).

I'm actually about 50/50 on whether or not this looks like the Vernon Wells deal by 2016, but it's *really good* to see the Mets make a lifer out of David Wright.

I thought the noise was they could afford to do both? But if they're bringing Pelfrey back, that renders Dickey sort of superfluous anyway. How many aces does a staff need?

Don't say that too loudly. Jeff Wilpon might read this and take it seriously.

...I seriously dread the day that Jeff makes Jim Dolan look like Wellington Mara.

8/138 is about as reasonable as you're going to get for a star player who has now put up 7 or more fWAR 3 times.

It's good to see Mets fans have at least something go right for them.

I

know right now it looks like sign or trade with Dickey, but they could just keep him to start 2013 and see how it goes-- if he's pitching well, he'll get a little more expensive, but if he prices himself out of the their price range (a second straight Cy Young-level performance would probably do that) they can deal him midyear.

I believe thanks to the new CBA that you can't get draft picks for guys you trade for during the season, so combining that with the fact that if you wait until the season starts to trade him the team getting him would be getting less out of him in 2013 then I think if you are going to trade him it has to be prior to the season.

I'm actually about 50/50 on whether or not this looks like the Vernon Wells deal by 2016, but it's *really good* to see the Mets make a lifer out of David Wright.

Really? I don't know how the back loading is going to work on the Wright deal, but the AAV is less than Wells and Wells didn't have the same performance track record as Wright did prior to signing the deals. Looks like Wells was about 2 years younger when he signed his deal than Wright is now, so that is a knock against David, but since signing the deal Wells has 4 years out of 6 with an OPS+ below 100. I just can't see Wright doing that.

I may be more bullish on Wright than most; I was really happy to see him cut the K rate last year and i think that is a real good sign for his next few years.

so combining that with the fact that if you wait until the season starts to trade him the team getting him would be getting less out of him in 2013 then I think if you are going to trade him it has to be prior to the season.

The number I've seen bandied about for Dickey is 2/30, which basically makes the cost of Dickey for 2014 $25 M. I can understand the reluctance to do that, and the reluctance to go 3/$45 M, though I would be happy with either of those contracts, because Dickey's a lot of fun to have on the team.

The Wells deal was a disaster the day it was signed. The Wright signing isn't like that.

The number I've seen bandied about for Dickey is 2/30, which basically makes the cost of Dickey for 2014 $25 M. I can understand the reluctance to do that, and the reluctance to go 3/$45 M, though I would be happy with either of those contracts, because Dickey's a lot of fun to have on the team.

Adam Rubin says that it would be a two year extension, so Dickey would be signed through 2015.

The number I've seen bandied about for Dickey is 2/30, which basically makes the cost of Dickey for 2014 $25 M. I can understand the reluctance to do that, and the reluctance to go 3/$45 M, though I would be happy with either of those contracts, because Dickey's a lot of fun to have on the team.

I believe the 2/30 doesn't include 2013, in which case it would essentially be 3/35, which the Mets should jump on. I don't see Dickey agreeing to basically just a one year extension, though maybe I am interpreting it wrong.

I believe thanks to the new CBA that you can't get draft picks for guys you trade for during the season, so combining that with the fact that if you wait until the season starts to trade him the team getting him would be getting less out of him in 2013 then I think if you are going to trade him it has to be prior to the season.

This is true, you can't hoard draft picks via mid-season trades like Oakland and Boston used to. And if they hold onto him during 2013 and make a qualifying offer, there is no guarantee he'd turn it down so that the Mets can secure a draft pick, especially when he'll be 39, and especially since the QO will likely be higher than it is this year. As a NYC resident, I'd really hate to see Dickey go, but if you're going to trade him and maximize what you're going to get in return, the time is now. I hope Dickey stays, though. He and David Wright have brought Mets fans a lot of joy.

It's good to see Mets fans have at least something go right for them.

Agreed. I'm so thrilled for Mets fans that I don't even really care enough to quibble over the dollars-per-win.

Thanks for clearing that up. That makes a lot more sense. Looks like a steal at that price, even if he gives back some of the 2012 performance bump.

I believe the 2/30 doesn't include 2013, in which case it would essentially be 3/35, which the Mets should jump on. I don't see Dickey agreeing to basically just a one year extension, though maybe I am interpreting it wrong.

I am very dubious that he would accept as little as 2/30 for 2014-2015 - but maybe he really wants the safety of the guaranteed money.

I am very dubious that he would accept as little as 2/30 for 2014-2015 - but maybe he really wants the safety of the guaranteed money.

I'm a little dubious of that as well, to be honest, because if he was then the Mets should already have the contract signed.

Wright already is the Mets' all-time leader in hits (1426), runs (790), RBI (818), total bases (2398), doubles (322), extra base hits (545), times on base (2078), sacrifice flies (58, ok tied with Kranepool here), and walks (616)

also leads in WAR, Runs Created, and Adjusted Batting Runs

so at least now the Mets, after 50 years of baseball, can look forward to having their all-time leader in categories eventually not have such paltry numbers...

This is a great day for the Mets and their fans. Not only is David Wright the face of the franchise, he is the greatest position player in the 50 year history of the organization, and is on pace to smash through their record book.

The Yankees have a comparable player in age/stats in Robinson Cano, and would be thrilled, THRILLED, if Cano would accept a comparable contract. It's not going to happen; Boras will take Cano into free agency next year and should secure a $200 million dollar contract.

Wright could have gotten more $ on the open market, but good for him to stay where he's happy. He's a quality player and from everything I've ever read about him, a quality guy.

Really? I don't know how the back loading is going to work on the Wright deal, but the AAV is less than Wells and Wells didn't have the same performance track record as Wright did prior to signing the deals. Looks like Wells was about 2 years younger when he signed his deal than Wright is now, so that is a knock against David, but since signing the deal Wells has 4 years out of 6 with an OPS+ below 100. I just can't see Wright doing that.

I may be more bullish on Wright than most; I was really happy to see him cut the K rate last year and i think that is a real good sign for his next few years.

You raise some fair points. Especially accounting for likely inflation, the AAV of this deal won't be as bad. Moreover, I was very, very heartened to see that the neoShea dimensions of Citi seemed to bring about a neoShea David Wright, so maybe the progress he made last year is real.

However, Wright's had back issues (which tend to continue popping up), and while he has some defensive value to lose, I just can't shake his weird 09-11 stretch. If '12 turns out to be an aberration, this deal could turn sour. That having been said, I'll hope for the best and in any event, I'm very, very happy to see Wright a Met lifer.

Which gets to...

Wright already is the Mets' all-time leader in hits (1426), runs (790), RBI (818), total bases (2398), doubles (322), extra base hits (545), times on base (2078), sacrifice flies (58, ok tied with Kranepool here), and walks (616)

also leads in WAR, Runs Created, and Adjusted Batting Runs

so at least now the Mets, after 50 years of baseball, can look forward to having their all-time leader in categories eventually not have such paltry numbers...

If Wright's 30's go really well, and he retires at 40/41 with around double those totals, is he a Hall of Famer? Right now, he's at .301/.381/.506 with a 135 OPS+. Let's say he keeps up his age-29 pace through his age-32 season (2015). That gives him a good, long prime, a very strong double peak (23-25, 29-32), and 2800 hits, almost 650 doubles, 1200 walks, 400 homers and 1600 RBI by the time he retires. I'd say that goes into the HOF pretty easily.

Am I getting ahead of myself? Probably, but that's what days like today are for.

If Wright's 30's go really well, and he retires at 40/41 with around double those totals, is he a Hall of Famer? Right now, he's at .301/.381/.506 with a 135 OPS+. Let's say he keeps up his age-29 pace through his age-32 season (2015). That gives him a good, long prime, a very strong double peak (23-25, 29-32), and 2800 hits, almost 650 doubles, 1200 walks, 400 homers and 1600 RBI by the time he retires. I'd say that goes into the HOF pretty easily.

I would think so. Through 2008 Wright was pretty clearly on a HOF trajectory. Through age 25, which was the 2008 season, he had 3,048 PA and a career 139 OPS+.

I guess I'm actually kind of surprised that over the last 4 years, he still has a 130 OPS+. He's been a full time player for 8 years; 135 OPS+. That seems to me like a good start to a HOF career.

I just pulled down his top 10 players through age 29 from Bbref. Usual caveats apply.

Scott Rolen (932)
Carl Yastrzemski (900) *
Chipper Jones (896)
Eric Chavez (894)
Aramis Ramirez (889)
Carlos Beltran (883)
Robinson Cano (882)
Gary Sheffield (882)
George Brett (877) *
Del Ennis (871)

2 HOF on there, Chipper is a lock. Sheffield would be one if he played 3B, right? Beltran may end up being one, Cano is off to a HOF start as well I'd think.

I'm not sure how I feel about this in value terms, but regardless of how it turns out, it's nice that the fans will be able to keep cheering for a home-grown star.

I am very dubious that he would accept as little as 2/30 for 2014-2015 - but maybe he really wants the safety of the guaranteed money.

I'm a little dubious of that as well, to be honest, because if he was then the Mets should already have the contract signed.

It's not at all a given, though, that a pitcher at ages 39 and 40 is going to be worth 30m. Sure, Dickey's a knuckleballer, but knuckleballers that last until those ages are often ordinary pitchers by that time. The unusual thing isn't that they're good pitchers at that age, it's that they're still in the league at all.

Dickey just had his lucky year. In 2010 and 2011 he was a 3 win pitcher (Fangraphs has him at a little worse than that, at 2.8 and 2.5 wins). I don't think anyone would be disappointed if Dickey repeated that in his age 39 and 40 seasons. At 15m per, then, the Mets are breaking even. The upside, of course, is that he repeats his 2012 season. The downside is however many games he misses over the next three years.

I'd sign Dickey for 2/30 for 2014 and 2015, because he's a great player to watch and from my pov as a fan it beats trading him, but it's far, far from a guarantee that he stays healthy for three more years and pitches the way he has since 2010. He's really, really old, and there are no precedents for him.

Wright could have gotten more $ on the open market, but good for him to stay where he's happy.

I'm not so sure Wright left much if anything on the table. Even general managers get a little leery of giving players seven years based on four great months.

Dickey just had his lucky year. In 2010 and 2011 he was a 3 win pitcher (Fangraphs has him at a little worse than that, at 2.8 and 2.5 wins). I don't think anyone would be disappointed if Dickey repeated that in his age 39 and 40 seasons.

what was lucky about 2012?

I'm nervous about Wright's ups and downs. But this seems like it's probably a no-brainer.

Dickey just had his lucky year. In 2010 and 2011 he was a 3 win pitcher (Fangraphs has him at a little worse than that, at 2.8 and 2.5 wins). I don't think anyone would be disappointed if Dickey repeated that in his age 39 and 40 seasons.

what was lucky about 2012?

I don't know if I would call it lucky. His K/9 was between 5-6 in the previous 3 years and it spiked up to 8.9 in the last year (with no increase in walk rate). His BABIP stayed around the same, so you can't say he was lucky in that manner. So the big question is whether or not his spike in K rate is here to stay or a one year fluke.

So the big question is whether or not his spike in K rate is here to stay or a one year fluke.

The third possibility is that his K rate will get better.

Nothing is a guarantee, I didn't mean it that way. But when you look at what other guys are getting, I think it's a contract they should definitely sign.

I'll admit I'm surprised by the low AAV here. Maybe salaries won't be going nuts this offseason.

Wright's HoF track is tenuous ... the very definition of borderline. His OPS+ is 135 through age 29 and every 3B ahead of him is in and the 3B behind him were not voted in (Santo eventually making it and Brooks making it for his glove of course). He does have a lot of PA through 29 so should end up with a "long" career so he may only need to roughly maintain current production to make it.

I'm talking voted in not necessarily "deserves" to be in. The voters have always been pretty tough on 3B and I'm not optimistic about Rolen.

@30: Hey, if you want to believe that a guy took a big leap forward at age 37 because his skillset dramatically improved, be my guest.

I know he's R A F Dickey, but even Ichiro! fell off at this age.

The difference is that Ichiro! fell off from an established level of performance-- RA Dickey The Last Knuckleballer didn't really have one, unless you count 2010-11 as a bar. I pointed this out the other day-- Dickey's ability to strike people out remained consistent throughout the year, so it seems like there was a corner turned, in terms of getting a feel for his pitch combinations and movement. That might not carry over, but there's no reason to think it will automatically go away, either.

@30: Hey, if you want to believe that a guy took a big leap forward at age 37 because his skillset dramatically improved, be my guest.

His big leap forward was at age 35, not last year.

@30: Hey, if you want to believe that a guy took a big leap forward at age 37 because his skillset dramatically improved, be my guest.

I know he's R A F Dickey, but even Ichiro! fell off at this age.

Maybe I'm just talking myself into it, but I believe his skillset has improved. He hasn't been throwing the knuckleball for that long, it's entirely possible he has improved that.

The guy took his K rate from 5.78 to 8.86 in one year. When I think of a lucky season, I think of a guy with an out of character BABIP. His BABIP the last 3 years has been 276, 278, and 275. I don't think you luck your way into an extra 3 K's per 9. (and he dropped his walk rate as well).

Doesn't fangraphs use FIP in their WAR calculations? FIP is probably going to underrate Dickey, since as a knuckleballer he can keep his BABIP on the lower side. Dickey threw 210 IP with a 112 ERA+ in 2011 and finished with 2.5 WAR; seems on the low side for that, at least to me. Madison Bumgarner threw 209 IP with a 109 ERA+ and had 5.3 fWAR. Hudson threw 215 IP with a 119 ERA+, he had 3.9 fWAR.

Dickey probably had his best season already, but I wouldn't be surprised if he outpitches, or is at least close, to his 2011 season for the next few years.

It's actually very common for knuckleball pitchers to be at their best around Dickey's age.

-Phil Niekro had his four best seasons at ages 36-39
-Tim Wakefield had two of his best seasons at 36 and 38
-Charlie Hough peaked between ages 35-37
-Hoyt Wilhelm has his best season at 36 and then his best run of consecutive seasons from 38-45
-Joe Niekro's best season was as a 37-year-old

@37, 38, 39, 40:

Hey, I would love to see Dickey not just repeat his 2012 season in 2013, but continue to improve. At the same time I'm baffled by the assumption from a bunch of smart guys who spend a lot of time thinking about baseball that Dickey's at all likely to sustain his 2012 performance. I want to think I'm missing something because he's such a great story, but I'm damned if I know what that might be.

Just take this for instance.

That might not carry over, but there's no reason to think it will automatically go away, either.

Doesn't the entire history of baseball essentially tell us that it will (almost) automatically go away, though? Where are the guys (other than Barry Bonds) who took a big step forward in the latter half of their 30s and kept it up? Aren't they a tiny, tiny minority?

It's not that guys don't have a career or lucky year at 36 or 37, or 38, but those seasons don't represent new and sustainable levels of production.

Or,

Dickey probably had his best season already, but I wouldn't be surprised if he outpitches, or is at least close, to his 2011 season for the next few years.

This was pretty much my point.

what was lucky about 2012?

The history of baseball tells us that ballplayers essentially never improve raw skills around age 37.

It's actually very common for knuckleball pitchers to be at their best around Dickey's age.

Sure. I don't think anyone's argued the contrary. My point was that Dickey didn't take a big step forward at age 37 because his skillset dramatically improved.

-Joe Niekro's best season was as a 37-year-old

Yup, and you sure didn't want to pay him for the next three years based on that. He was extremely durable at ages 38-40 (and had a much better history of durability throughout his career than Dickey) but his ERA+ dropped 38 points following his age 37 season, and his three year average for ages 38-40 was right around 99.

Not that it means a damned thing but I'll predict for Dickey

2013 200 IP 120 ERA+
2014 180 IP 110 ERA+
2015 150 IP 97 ERA+

I do regress the #### out of ancient players, even knuckleballers, and especially knuckleballers who have to throw hard to be great rather than merely solid.

His big leap forward was at age 35, not last year.

I take your meaning, but I think we're all assuming that after the last three seasons, Dickey's improvement in 2010 wasn't a fluke, but did represent a new level of skill (which I suppose doesn't help my point, now that I think about it).

In any case, I don't think I was claiming upthread anything other than 2/30 for Dickey's age 39 and 40 seasons seemed like a perfectly good deal for him, and that it was unreasonable to think that 2012 was remotely a sure thing insofar as it indicated another step forward in skill. I think too that the cost to him of turning down 2/30 and not only hoping to get through his age 38 season uninjured, but to perform at around his 2010-11 level is very, very high. Seems like if you turn down 2/30 you have to be hoping to turn in 200 innings w an ERA+ around 135 at age 38, so that some team offers you 2/40+.

If you're Dickey, what do hold out for, for 2014 and 2015?

I guess I really don't disagree with you that much then, but I don't really think you can characterize that year as all that lucky.

Dickey really is such a weird guy to project. He's not just a knuckleballer, he's a guy who is still relatively new to the pitch. He also throws it harder than probably anyone else ever, so maybe he won't be able to pitch as long as others have.

Doesn't the entire history of baseball essentially tell us that it will (almost) automatically go away, though? Where are the guys (other than Barry Bonds) who took a big step forward in the latter half of their 30s and kept it up? Aren't they a tiny, tiny minority?

I might need to try and play around with the BBref play index. How many guys improved their K rate by 3 per 9 at any point in their career, let alone at the age Dickey did? That's what gives me the hope this was a legitimate improvement.

At the same time I'm baffled by the assumption from a bunch of smart guys who spend a lot of time thinking about baseball that Dickey's at all likely to sustain his 2012 performance.

In his last 3 years, he has pitched a healthy 616 innings with a 2.95 ERA. People aren't clinging hopefully to some small sample of fluky innings.

I think too that the cost to him of turning down 2/30 and not only hoping to get through his age 38 season uninjured, but to perform at around his 2010-11 level is very, very high. Seems like if you turn down 2/30 you have to be hoping to turn in 200 innings w an ERA+ around 135 at age 38, so that some team offers you 2/40+.

I guess it's mostly just this where you disagree with the rest of us. I think it all depends how much stock you put in the 'uniqueness' of Dickey compared to other pitchers his age.

Doesn't the entire history of baseball essentially tell us that it will (almost) automatically go away, though? Where are the guys (other than Barry Bonds) who took a big step forward in the latter half of their 30s and kept it up? Aren't they a tiny, tiny minority?

Of all players, yes. Of knuckleball pitchers, no.

The history of baseball tells us that ballplayers essentially never improve raw skills around age 37.

What Conor said in #42-- the history of baseball tells us that ballplayers don't go from being unworthy of a roster spot at 34 to winning a Cy Young by age 37. But that's what Dickey did-- sometimes models are models, and they're bad at predicting extreme outliers. I'm not saying he won't go back to 2010-11, but that two years of performance was hardly weighty enough to establish what sort of pitcher Dickey actually is.

I am happy with the Wright extension. It's a fair deal and Wright is the face of the franchise. I also hope the Mets can get Dickey signed to a 2 year extension aka signed through the 2015 season. I have not been paying close attention but if he wants 2y/30 for the 2014-2015 season, I think that would be a solid deal for the Mets.

If Dickey accepts 2/$30, I smile, bow and say "Thang Kew!" if I'm the Mets.

I'm thinking 4/$56...

Also, Dickey's only been this type of player since 2006 or so, making him different from other players in that way too. It's very easy to see how he might have gotten better after 6 years or so (which is usually a lot closer to a player's prime).

@30: Hey, if you want to believe that a guy took a big leap forward at age 37 because his skillset dramatically improved, be my guest.

I know he's R A F Dickey, but even Ichiro! fell off at this age

The RAF had their best years from 40-45.

49 is huge.

I'm thinking 4/$56...

Well knock my socks off, MFC.

CBS Sports, via Heyman:

The Mets and Dickey are believed to be talking about a two-year deal, but there is obviously a difference in the dollars. Dickey's unusual career -- he went from 10-year journeyman to solid starter in short order -- makes it hard to pinpoint his worth.

nbcsports:

No word on the specifics of the new offer, but Dickey is said to be willing to accept a two-year extension which would run through 2015. Olney notes that the Mets were “stunned” by Andy Pettitte‘s one-year, $12 million contract with the Yankees and it’s possible the deal could be used as a comparable for Dickey because of his age. Some have speculated that the 38-year-old knuckleballer could be looking at a deal similar to Jake Peavy‘s recent two-year, $29 million extension with the White Sox.

Has anyone linked to the story of The Next Great Knuckleballer?

What if former MLB knuckleballer Joe Niekro taught a 7-year-old how to throw a knuckleball for strikes? And what if that seven year-old stuck with the game and the knuckleball — threw two perfect games in Little League and got named to five consecutive all-star teams heading into a high school career?