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Sunday, February 26, 2017

Mets’ Duda, Who Had Back Trouble in 2016, Is Now Bothered by His Hips - The New York Times

Duda felt stiffness in his back and his hips after a recent workout. Although his back improved, his hips remained troublesome, Collins said, prompting Duda to receive a cortisone shot in each hip on Friday.

Collins said he had received no indication that the stiffness in Duda’s hips was related to last year’s back injury, but everything in the lower body is connected, he noted.

“We’re very fortunate at this time we’ve still got a ton of camp left,” Collins said.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 26, 2017 at 07:33 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: lucas duda, mets

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   1. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 26, 2017 at 07:39 AM (#5408886)
The boogedy-woogedly Brooklyn boy's about to get his, dig
My waist bone's connected to my hip bone
My hip bone's connected to my thigh bone
My thigh bone's connected to my knee bone
My knee bone's connected to my
hardy-har-har-har The jibbedy-jabber jaw ja-jabbing at your funny bone,
um Skip the ovaltine,
I'd rather have a honeycomb Or preferably the sesame,
Let's spiggedy-spark the blunts, um Dun dun dun dun dun, dun dun

They want EFX, some live EFX
They want EFX, some live EFX
They want EFX, some live EFX
Snap a neck for some live EFX
   2. 'Spos Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:08 AM (#5408905)
Not sure it's "sesame."
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 26, 2017 at 11:49 AM (#5408925)
Conforto should be taking a ton of extra reps at 1B. I have the feeling that jobs going to be his if he's not embarrassing in the field.
   4. Lassus Posted: February 26, 2017 at 12:13 PM (#5408937)
Duda has been a major disappointment.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 26, 2017 at 01:05 PM (#5408956)
Citi Field ladies sing dis song, Duda! Duda!
Citi Field base paths five miles long, Oh, Duda day!
Can't run all night
Can't run all day
   6. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 26, 2017 at 02:54 PM (#5408988)
Yikes. How can you need two cortisone shots < 2 weeks into spring training?

At this rate, Duda is on a trajectory to be signing a minor league contract with a NRI next winter.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: February 26, 2017 at 04:51 PM (#5409045)
Been a rough spring for the Mets but seems to me it's yet another excuse to move Wright to 1B where he belongs.
   8. Adam Starblind Posted: February 26, 2017 at 08:29 PM (#5409133)
Been a rough spring for the Mets


?
   9. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:07 PM (#5409160)
Duda has been a major disappointment.

A bit harsh, no?
   10. depletion Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:13 PM (#5409162)
Duda wasn't on anyone's top prospect list, as far as I recall. He's had a couple good years that have been a pleasant surprise. Hope he gets over these health issues and has a long career. Maybe that non-trade of Bruce wasn't such a bad non-move after all.
   11. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:24 PM (#5409165)
Maybe that non-trade of Bruce wasn't such a bad non-move after all.


That's just plain crazy talk.

There's absolutely no reason to exercise a $13M option on a replacement-level player in the hopes that you can somehow flip him for a useful reliever, or whatever silliness was going through the heads of the Mets front office. Particularly when you already have Conforto hanging around without a place to play.
   12. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:29 PM (#5409168)

Yes, but the non-trade of Granderson is looking pretty good right now. They are going to need his bat.
   13. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:48 PM (#5409171)
Duda has been a major disappointment.

Then your expectations were too high.
   14. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 26, 2017 at 11:53 PM (#5409181)
The Mets thinking/actions regarding Jay Bruce have not made much sense. For whatever reason, they became infatuated with him, and he's been predictably a disappointment.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: February 27, 2017 at 12:35 AM (#5409184)
?

Am I misremembering or haven't they already had 3-4 pitchers with owies?
   16. sinicalypse Posted: February 27, 2017 at 02:36 AM (#5409203)
on the bright side, since lucas duda isn't shakira there's still a chance that his hips are lying!
   17. Adam Starblind Posted: February 27, 2017 at 07:10 AM (#5409212)
[15] You are misremembering.
   18. Lassus Posted: February 27, 2017 at 08:15 AM (#5409221)
on the bright side, since lucas duda isn't shakira there's still a chance that his hips are lying!

I award you no points.
   19. JJ1986 Posted: February 27, 2017 at 09:09 AM (#5409242)
Am I misremembering or haven't they already had 3-4 pitchers with owies?
All 4 of them had a minor infection, but it's mostly cleared up now.

   20. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 27, 2017 at 09:21 AM (#5409251)
Am I misremembering or haven't they already had 3-4 pitchers with owies?


You're misremembering. Zack Wheeler curtailed 1 workout with arm stiffness. He's back on schedule. Kevin Plawecki got his knee racked on a play at the plate on Saturday, but it turned out to be a contusion.

No, Duda is the main injury concern right now.
   21. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 27, 2017 at 09:22 AM (#5409252)
Jay Bruce has found his old first baseman's mitt, BTW...
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2017 at 09:44 AM (#5409263)
Duda wasn't on anyone's top prospect list, as far as I recall

Then your expectations were too high.


That's a bit disingenuous.

If you measure from when he was a prospect, sure. But when a guy puts up 2400 PAs of a 123 OPS+ from age 24-29, no one is referring to his prospect grades.

To have that guy potentially give you absolutely nothing in his age 30-31 seasons would be very disappointing.
   23. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 27, 2017 at 10:55 AM (#5409322)
If you measure from when he was a prospect, sure. But when a guy puts up 2400 PAs of a 123 OPS+ from age 24-29, no one is referring to his prospect grades.

To have that guy potentially give you absolutely nothing in his age 30-31 seasons would be very disappointing.
.
No, saying "2400 PAs of a 123 OPS+ from age 24-29" is a bit disingenuous.

Even with his OPS+, he was essentially worthless for the first 4 years and 1300 PA's (below replacement level according to BR). The fact that he was able to turn himself into an above average 1B in his late 20s, and even put up 2 solidly above average seasons, should be considered the exact opposite of a major disappointment.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2017 at 11:06 AM (#5409330)
No, saying "2400 PAs of a 123 OPS+ from age 24-29" is a bit disingenuous.

Even with his OPS+, he was essentially worthless for the first 4 years and 1300 PA's (below replacement level according to BR).


He's graded out as an average (UZR) to plus (DRS) first baseman. All his negative defense was in the OF. Duda would have been a ~2 WAR player in 2011 and 2013 if he had been at 1B.

A 123 OPS+ 1B with average defense is quite valuable. It doesn't effect his actual value that the Mets stupidly stuck him in the OF for 2000 innings.

People really need to stop taking WAR as the final word, instead of the beginning of the conversation.
   25. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 27, 2017 at 11:20 AM (#5409337)
People really need to stop taking WAR as the final word, instead of the beginning of the conversation.


This. A 100x this.
   26. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 27, 2017 at 11:49 AM (#5409345)
He's graded out as an average (UZR) to plus (DRS) first baseman. All his negative defense was in the OF. Duda would have been a ~2 WAR player in 2011 and 2013 if he had been at 1B.

He would have probably still been solidly below 2 war both years. Using FG, because they have fielding broken down by position. He is at 0.8 and 0.4 WAR (which is more generous than what BRef has him). If you give him the 11 and 12 runs he lost each season in the outfield, you get him to something like 1.9 and 1.5 WAR. BUT you would have to give back about 4-5 runs per season on positional adjustment, so likely, you get something closer to 1.5 and 1 WAR.

But of course, he didn't do that, and he was in fact terrible in the outfield. I fail to see why that shouldn't count. And of course, that also ignores the giant hole in the middle 2012, where he both fielded, and hit like ####, and was lucky to even be in the league after.

So yes, if you give him credit for a bunch of stuff he hadn't done, and ignore the bad things he did do, it is possible to squint and see a player who could be a below average bench bat at first base, with no positional flexibility or utility. It think I will stick by calling that player turning in 2 above average seasons in his late 20s a major success.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2017 at 12:04 PM (#5409349)
But of course, he didn't do that, and he was in fact terrible in the outfield. I fail to see why that shouldn't count.

Because it says nothing about his value as a baseball player. And gives you no information when projecting his performance for 2016 and 2017.

If you put Miguel Cabrera at SS, he probably puts up a -50 fielding and total 0 WAR. Does that actually change his value as a baseball player?

Duda was exactly what I said he was. A 1B who put up a 123 OPS+ over 2400 PAs. That's plenty valuable, regardless of how awful his OF defense was. His OF defense tells you nothing about his value when properly deployed.

Edit: ZiPs projected Duda for a 135 OPS+ and 3.2 WAR for 2016. Having that player go poof is a major disappointment for a play-off contender, and not to be expected.
   28. PreservedFish Posted: February 27, 2017 at 12:25 PM (#5409361)
But of course, he didn't do that, and he was in fact terrible in the outfield. I fail to see why that shouldn't count.


It depends on what question you are trying to answer. You're apparently concerned with Duda's value in past seasons. Snapper is concerned with his quality as a player.
   29. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 27, 2017 at 01:24 PM (#5409421)
It depends on what question you are trying to answer. You're apparently concerned with Duda's value in past seasons. Snapper is concerned with his quality as a player.

I still fail to see how that quality was evident, even if you only count his 1B defense. Coming off his age 27 season, to turn himself into a 3 win player, he had to drastically improve both his 1B defense, AND his offense.

His 2 years with any kind of 1B innings 2011 & 2013:
Rdrs/1200 innings: 0 & -4
Career OPS+: 114 (being majorly propped up by 350 PA in 2011 with a BA literally 50 points higher (ok ok literally 49) than any other season of his career to date)

2014 & 2015:
Rdrs/1200 innings: 4 & 5
OPS+: 137 & 130

He had to improve his defense by about 7 runs per season, AND his offense by another 13 runs per season. The notion that he would have been a 3 WAR player all along, if the Mets had just put him at first is simply wishcasting. There is simply no evidence for it. The fact that he was able to do it should be seen as a nice surprise.
   30. Conor Posted: February 27, 2017 at 01:29 PM (#5409429)
Duda was a horrendous OF, he was clearly overmatched out there and the Mets continued to him out there, I guess both because they clearly don't care too much about defense and they were still trying to salvage Ike Davis. I don't think it should be a surprise he improved his hitting once he got moved out of the OF and to a position he could handle better defensively.
   31. Adam Starblind Posted: February 27, 2017 at 03:47 PM (#5409562)
I don't think it should be a surprise he improved his hitting once he got moved out of the OF and to a position he could handle better defensively.


There was speculation that Duda's horrible time in the outfield was affecting his hitting, which would explain his improvement at the plate when they stuck him at his true position. No way to test that obviously.

they were still trying to salvage Ike Davis


It was really only one of those years that Davis was a salvage operation. Davis was never great, but he was excellent as a rookie in 2010 and got off to a hot start in 2011 before injuring his ankle and missing the rest of the year. In 2012 he came back and was dreadful for the first half before catching fire and winding up with 32 home runs. Overall his season was not good, but everybody thought he had come back (i.e., no salvage operation at that point). Then came 2013 and Davis was awful again and never pulled out of it, including after a stint at AAA. They could have benched Davis at any time in 2013 and moved Duda to 1B and probably have been better off, so I guess you could say the "salvage" operation kicked in some time in 2013. He was gone after 12 games in 2014.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: February 27, 2017 at 10:18 PM (#5409753)
The statements "given his performance through age 27, his age 28-29 seasons were a welcome surprise" and "given his age 28-29 performance (or 27-29 or whatever), his age 30 performance was a major disappointment" are not mutually exclusive. (Neither are they both necessarily true.) And "given he's a late-bloomer, under-performed then was hurt at 30, we shouldn't expect much more out of him" doesn't contradict either of those statements.

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