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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Mets expected to offer about $100M to start as they try to make David Wright a Met ‘for life’ - CBSSports.com

Met for life!!!

Jim Furtado Posted: October 11, 2012 at 09:44 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: david wright, mets

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: October 11, 2012 at 09:50 AM (#4263326)
I'm sure it would be for 6-years, but I don't understand just reporting a number without a length.
   2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 11, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4263334)
I don't understand just reporting a number without a length.
Because the job of reporters is to be stenographers for the moneyed interests that can advance their own goals through the reporter.
   3. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4263336)
And I'm sure Wright's agent is thinking more like 9 years, $200 million. Unless it's Scott Boras, in which case he's thinking 15 years and $400 million with a well timed opt-out.
   4. Swoboda is freedom Posted: October 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4263404)
I'm sure it would be for 6-years, but I don't understand just reporting a number without a length.

I am sure it is Bobby Bonilla length.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2012 at 10:51 AM (#4263458)
How much would you pay for Wright?
   6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4263598)
How much would you pay for Wright?
Dumber-than-Marcels project him as a 4 WAR player next year, which (assuming ~$5M per win, a 0.5 WAR seasonal regression and 5% inflation) projects out to something like a 6/100 contract.

I might be massively underestimating how much wins are gonna cost after the deluge of tv money, though.
   7. JoeHova Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4263694)
Wright won't take this, it's like when Milwaukee offered CC and then Prince $100 million dollar deals. $100 million is enough to make it look to some fans like you're trying to re-sign a guy, but not enough to actually retain a top talent.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4263707)
I might be massively underestimating how much wins are gonna cost after the deluge of tv money, though.

Yeah. I'd start at $6M/win and have 7.5% inflation. Plus, during a longish deal, we could see some real world inflation, making that 7.5%, 10 or 12%.
   9. SteveM. Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4263715)
Met for life!!!


Why do they hate him so?
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4263720)
Wright won't take this

Well, you never take the first offer. I think Wright stays.
   11. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4263915)

I think he stays, too. Maybe it's just me but I don't think anyone is going to give him $200 million. I also don't see him as a 4-win player anymore. He had a great first half this year but other than that he hasn't been a 4-win player for the last four seasons.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 11, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4264266)
Yeah. I'd start at $6M/win and have 7.5% inflation.
I think it's as likely that the DVR-driven boom in TV money is a one-off than a long-term trend. And I think the odds of serious real-world inflation in the near future is basically zero. Our central banking overlords will allow crisis-level long-term unemployment in order to prevent even 3-4% inflation.

But there's a very good case to be made for starting at $6M per free agent win.
   13. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4264617)
Dumber-than-Marcels project him as a 4 WAR player next year, which (assuming ~$5M per win, a 0.5 WAR seasonal regression and 5% inflation) projects out to something like a 6/100 contract.


Just out of curiosity, do you have a Smarter-than-Marcels projection for him?
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 11, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4264622)
Just out of curiosity, do you have a Smarter-than-Marcels projection for him?
Lord no. That would take way more work. Plus probably some skills I don't have.
   15. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 11, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4264694)
I think he stays, too. Maybe it's just me but I don't think anyone is going to give him $200 million. I also don't see him as a 4-win player anymore. He had a great first half this year but other than that he hasn't been a 4-win player for the last four seasons.

2009: 3.6 WAR (fielding + position adjustment -0.82 WAR)
2010: 4.0 (-.88)
2011: 1.9 (-.95) Wright missed about 1/3 of the season.
2012: 7.8 (+1.8)

If you prorate 2011, Wright has generally been worth 3-4 win player every year since 2009 except for last year when he was significantly better. Wright actually saw basically a 3 win jump upgrade in defense this year if you prorate 2011. Now is Wright really that good defensively? Nope. Is he really as bad as his 2011 suggests? Nope. When he's healthy, Wright IS an average defender and I think that means he's been a 4-5 win player the last four seasons.

Adrian Beltre got 6y/96m after one 141 OPS+ season in a good hitter's park for him after years of mediocrity offensively. Wright, in a park that isn't great for him, has put up a 130 OPS+ the last four seasons. Let's not include last year if you think the first half was a fluke. He still put up a 124 OPS+ in 2009-2011.

Beltre got 6y/96m. I think Wright gets more than that because of inflation and because there's going to be someone who thinks he's better than that because of Citifield.
   16. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 11, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4264767)
This reminds me of the time Saturday Night Live offered the Beatles $3000 to appear on the show.
   17. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4264956)
Really? Reyes signed for 6 and $100 mill. Seems like a decent starting point.
   18. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4265005)
Really? Reyes signed for 6 and $100 mill. Seems like a decent starting point.
This is true, although a six-year contract will only take Wright through his age 36 season. If they really want him to be a Met "for life," it's going to take either a longer deal or Wright taking less than $16.5 (or so) per year. And the latter seems unlikely.
   19. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4265331)

2009: 3.6 WAR (fielding + position adjustment -0.82 WAR)
2010: 4.0 (-.88)
2011: 1.9 (-.95) Wright missed about 1/3 of the season.
2012: 7.8 (+1.8)


I was looking at bWAR which has him at 2.5 2.9 1.9 6.7.
   20. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4265378)
1. Weiters' tongue is blue.
2. He looks sad.
3. The A's-Tigers game might end before the Stinks-O's one.
   21. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4265380)
acaxgh
   22. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4265384)
Sorry, credit that post to my cat, Hana.
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4265388)
{wrong thread}
   24. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4265426)
Voxter has added a lot to this discussion.
   25. billyshears Posted: October 11, 2012 at 11:47 PM (#4265478)
I'm of the view that the Mets should trade Wright. A lot of that is because I just don't understand him as a player any more. In every year he usually finds a way to do something to bring a fairly significant level of value to the team, but over the past few years there have seemed to be weird fluctuations in his skills that cause me to question whether he's a good bet to maintain any aspect of his production (of course there's always the chance he could put everything together in any given year). But I'll be really annoyed if they take the same cowardly path with Wright as they did with Reyes, and lose him for the equivalent of Kevin Plawecki.

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