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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
If their top decision-maker is to be believed, the New York Mets really would love to have Bryce Harper or Manny Machado on their team. They just have some pesky players that are also pretty decent in the way.
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen appeared on Mike Francesa’s WFAN show on Monday, and the conversation naturally turned to baseball’s two biggest free agents.
Van Wagenen praised both players, but he also indicated that he doesn’t believe they are the right fit for the Mets.
Mind you, given the team’s gift for breaking players, I have to suspect that the feeling is mutual….
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1. I Knew A Guy Who Knew A Guy Who Knew Rey Ordonez Posted: February 12, 2019 at 08:22 AM (#5814532)My guess is teams are staying away from Harper because they're simply not convinced he'll be worth it, because of fear of spotty performance, health or both.
I agree with this in spirit but not on particulars--if Machado wants to play SS, where he'll probably be pretty bad defensively, the Mets are better off with Rosario in the short term, and they have Gimenez coming up. They'll be OK at 3B with what they've assembled, though it seems like a logjam and I'm not a fan of pushing McNeil off of 2B. But they also may be thinking that they want to save payroll room for signing 1 or 2 of deGrom, Thor & Wheeler to a longer deal.
Really? And are they easily acquired?
BVW: ....and the grapes are probably sour anyway.
They should be. Some of the best players in history fit that bill.
That's definitely true. Though Machado's style is more outlier today than it was in Cobb's day.
But yeah, typically teams have not shied away from these types of ########. I'm glad my team is not making a push for him, since I'd rather not have to root for him (though, as Chris Sale proves, if he ends up on the Sox, I'd ultimately do it).
Last three years:
Harper - 7.5 WAR, 133 OPS+ (417 games)
Conforto - 7.1 WAR, 124 OPS+ (371 games)
Nimmo - 5.3 WAR, 133 OPS+ (241 games)
They're all going to be 26 on Opening Day. I'd take Harper over either of the other guys but not for what it would cost to do so.
They should have been in on Machado, but after all the other moves they've made it seems too late.
Would Machado be willing to play 3b? He seems intent on playing SS, and seems the sort who might become an immediate pain if he doesn't get his way.
If he were happy to play 3b, I suspect he would have been signed already, but as an SS he hasn't shown he'll be near as great, and there's a real chance his defense there would decline as he gets older.
Lowrie was at 4 WAR in 2017 and 4.8 in 2018...but it's really hard to see him carrying that forward, and who the f knows what his defense will look like if he's at 3B (145 career games there, spread out over a lot of years). Talent at 3B seems like it's in pretty decent supply though, so I can see not wanting to commit a ton to the position for the next decade.
I think there's a near-100 percent chance his defense there will decline as he gets older. I think the real question is whether he improves on his 2018 numbers there and establishes a higher level before he starts fading, or if he's not a defensive asset there at all.
I imagine that's what teams are fearing about him, particularly if he's insistent on his desire to play SS during negotiations.
Where does the negative view of Machado's defense come from? My only reference is Baseball Reference's dWAR numbers, and they seem okay - he's got 11.3 dWAR through his seven seasons. Last season was a bit strange: -1.2 for Baltimore and then 1.2 for LA.
Most of that came at 3B. People are questioning whether he can handle SS -- as noted, he was supposedly bad at short in Baltimore last season, but good in LA after the trade. Some attributed that to more focus and effort once he was actually playing for something, but who knows?
Plays SS in 2019, Rosario to CF or AAA. Rosario has been quite bad so far, especially defensively.
In 2020, Frazier is gone, Cespedes is back. Team could move Rosario back to SS and Machado back to 3B at that time. Or keep Rosario in the OF and wait for Gimenez or Mauricio or eventually someone to push Machado to 3B.
It comes from his publicly expressed desire to play shortstop, where he has been a below average defender throughout his career (by both Fangraphs and BBRef). He has always been a good (sometimes very good) defender at third base. A team acquiring him as a third baseman would likely get at least a few years of above average defense from him there, and maybe better than that.
But he hasn't looked great at shortstop, and even though he's only 26, defense is a young man's game. He's probably not even going to be average there. The only hope, which I imagine he's selling suitors on, is that he's only played one full season at shortstop, and that might be enough to convince teams he was still acclimating to the position at the major league level. That seems like a thin hope to me.
Moreno is not opening his wallet, though.
Signed through 2020: Trout, Simmons, Cozart
Signed past 2020: Pujols (2021), Upton (2022)
That's it. Everyone else is either a FA after this season or arb/pre-arb and not guaranteed any money.
EDIT: They could use Harper too. Calhoun is owed real money this year ($10.5m + $1m buyout of 2020 option) but he's not good anymore so he can be the 4th OF (they don't actually have one of those).
92 - SFG Buster Posey 22.178, Johnny Cueto 21, Brandon Belt 17.2, Evan Longoria 16.5, Brandon Crawford 15.2
89 - LAD Clayton Kershaw 31, Kenley Jansen 20, AJ Pollock 18, Joe Kelly 8.833, Yaisel Sierra 8.5, Kenta Maeda 3.125
87 - BOS David Price 32, JD Martinez 19.375, Nathan Eovaldi 17, Dustin Pedroia 12.125, Christian Vazquez 6.25
76 - WSN Max Scherzer 34.503, Patrick Corbin 24.417, Stephen Strasburg 15, Anibal Sanchez 2
73 - NYY Giancarlo Stanton 29, Aroldis Chapman 17.2, Zack Britton 13, Adam Ottavino 9, Jacoby Ellsbury 5
59 - CIN Joey Votto 25, Eugenio Suarez 10.786, Sonny Gray 10.166, Raisel Iglesias 9.125, Tucker Barnhart 4.188
54 - CHC Yu Darvish 22, Jason Heyward 21, Jon Lester 10, Daniel Descalso 1
53 - LAA Albert Pujols 30, Justin Upton 23
51 - PHI Andrew McCutchen 20, Jean Segura 14.85, Odubel Herrera 10.35, Scott Kingery 4.25
49 - ARI Zack Greinke 35, Eduardo Escobar 7.667, Ketel Marte 6, Merrill Kelly 0.5
45 - SEA Kyle Seager 18.5, Yusei Kikuchi 16.5, Mike Leake 5, Robinson Cano 3.75, Dee Gordon 1
44 - SDP Wil Myers 22.5, Eric Hosmer 21, Ian Kinsler 0.5
40 - COL Charlie Blackmon 21, Ian Desmond 8, Daniel Murphy 6, Bryan Shaw 2, Jake McGee 2, Wade Davis 1
36 - KCR Danny Duffy 15.5, Salvador Perez 14.2, Whit Merrifield 6.75
36 - BAL Chris Davis 21.119, Alex Cobb 15
36 - TEX Elvis Andrus 14.25, Rougned Odor 12.333, Lance Lynn 9.333
36 - STL Dexter Fowler 16.5, Carlos Martinez 11.7, Paul DeJong 4.167, Andrew Miller 2.5, Kolten Wong 1
35 - MIL Lorenzo Cain 17, Christian Yelich 14, Ryan Braun 4
33 - NYM Robinson Cano 20.25, Jeurys Familia 11.667, Wilson Ramos 1.5
31 - ATL Freddie Freeman 22.359, Ender Inciarte 8.7
30 - DET Miguel Cabrera 30
29 - HOU Jose Altuve 29
23 - CLE Carlos Carrasco 12, Jose Ramirez 9.4, Brad Hand 1, Carlos Santana 0.5, Roberto Perez 0.45
19 - PIT Gregory Polanco 11.6, Felipe Vazquez 7.75
14 - TBR Kevin Kiermaier 11.667, Evan Longoria 2
8 - CHW Tim Anderson 7.25, Kelvin Herrera 1
8 - TOR Troy Tulowitzki 4, Lourdes Gurriel 3.929
8 - OAK Stephen Piscotty 7.583
0 - MIA Wei-Yin Chen 16 if he has 360 IP 2019-20 or 180 IP in 2020
0 - MIN
You're right, they could never afford Machado. :-(
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