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Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Mets have been in touch with free agent CF A.J. Pollock

Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said his big move to land Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz wasn’t the last he would make. His agressive style this offseason will continue, and free-agent CF A.J. Pollock is a name he has shown interest in.

Van Wagenen said he believes Pollock could be a good fit for the Mets, and he has been in touch with Pollock’s agent

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Pollock is looking for a five-year deal worth around $80 million—similar to what the Brewers gave Lorenzo Cain. Pollock and his team could be selling themselves high as it is the start of free agency to see what teams will bite the most.

All right, who wants to tell Brodie Van Wagenen why this isn’t a particularly good idea?

QLE Posted: December 05, 2018 at 05:07 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: a.j. pollock, brodie van wagenen, mets being mets

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   1. formerly dp Posted: December 05, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5794077)
Injury-plagued players tend not to be less injury-plagued when they come to the Mets--but I would be down with them bringing in Pollock. Another rumor has them building a package for Realmuto around Nimmo. Not OK with this one at all. Sign Pollock and Ramos, and call it a day. They'll have a logjam at the corners once Cespedes returns, but those problems have a way of working themselves out.

If they sign Pollock, they'll also likely move Lagares, which frees up another $9M for 2019. And if they sign Ramos, d'Arnaud can be shuffled off as well. Can't see them getting anything of value for either player, and they might have to eat some salary, but these two would be basically redundant in that scenario.
   2. PreservedFish Posted: December 05, 2018 at 09:50 AM (#5794083)
I like Pollock, but he seems like the type of guy that's likely to slip from "solid starter" to "bench guy" around the age of 32, even setting aside the durability concerns. But who knows.

Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors think he'll come in at 4 years, $60M. I guess that's not crazy.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5794095)
Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors think he'll come in at 4 years, $60M. I guess that's not crazy.

I think it depends a lot on what his D really is. DRS has him +14 in 1800 innings the last 2 years. That's very good. UZR has him dead average.

If you believe DRS, 4/60 seems fair. You're really only expecting Pollock to play 120 Gs a year.
   4. PreservedFish Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5794099)
I believe that he's an excellent fielder. But I don't know how long that'll be the case. He's just a slip away from being a pretty limited player.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5794108)
I believe that he's an excellent fielder. But I don't know how long that'll be the case. He's just a slip away from being a pretty limited player.

Where can I find the sprint speed #'s? His Bsr scores are still excellent.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:37 AM (#5794111)
Here. He's fast, not blazing. But this leaderboard shows you how much it's about jumps and reads - Pillar, JBJ, Inciarte, Almora are all below average for CF.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:41 AM (#5794115)
Here. He's fast, not blazing. But this leaderboard shows you how much it's about jumps and reads - Pillar, JBJ, Inciarte, Almora are all below average for CF.

And he hasn't lost much. Pollock's at 28.2 vs 28.6 in the previous years. He's still in the meaty part of the CF distribution.

I wouldn't be too worried about his fielding collapsing soon.
   8. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5794146)
At first I read the name as J. Alfred Prufrock.
   9. reech Posted: December 05, 2018 at 12:23 PM (#5794160)
they'll also likely move Lagares, which frees up another $9M for 2019


who is going to take lagares off their hands for 9 million bucks?

and re: AJ- The Mets only have to look north to the Bronx to see how the Yankees did with Ellsbury-
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5794163)
and re: AJ- The Mets only have to look north to the Bronx to see how the Yankees did with Ellsbury-

Ellsbury at 4/60 would have been fine. 10 WAR in his first 4 Yankee seasons. It was the 7/150 that made the deal awful.
   11. Zonk is One Individual Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5794187)
At first I read the name as J. Alfred Prufrock.


I think that's Jurickson Profar's uncle.
   12. PreservedFish Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5794190)
Profar definitely knows all about being a patient etherized upon a table.
   13. aberg Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:40 PM (#5794195)
At first I read the name as J. Alfred Prufrock.


If you're a baseball player, April really can't be your cruelest month. better to have it in January or February.
   14. Master of the Horse Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5794199)
I get agent's packaging the client but how do you say your guy is Lorenzo Cain like when there are obvious differences that are readily identified? Games played and lost to injury which others have noted. Defense. And Cain has had 4 seasons of around 5 wins or more and Pollock has had one killer season. That's agenting but seems pretty easy to say, not close.
   15. PreservedFish Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5794202)
You gotta start somewhere. "The Next Aaron Rowand" doesn't excite in quite the same way.
   16. Adam Starblind Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:52 PM (#5794206)
It almost makes you wonder why the Mets didn't go after Cain LAST SEASON instead of bits and pieces like Frazier, Swarzak, Bruce, etc.

Everything I read suggests BVW is going to take the same boneheaded approach of his predecessors -- "Big stars are too rich for my blood, how about a few B-listers who cost the same, but at least they're much less reliable!" Pollack, Miller, Maldonado instead of Machado is idiotic. At least Harper doesn't fit the roster.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5794209)
Pollack, Miller, Maldonado instead of Machado is idiotic.

It depends on the price and the alternatives.
   18. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 05, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5794215)
I get agent's packaging the client but how do you say your guy is Lorenzo Cain like when there are obvious differences that are readily identified?
Welcome to America - you must be new here. We don't do "facts" anymore.
   19. Zonk is One Individual Posted: December 05, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5794228)
IDK... Granted, such a thing as a "healthy" Pollock doesn't exist - but I think a healthy AJ Pollock probably is a pretty good Lorenzo Cain comp. Stop seeing color :-)
   20. formerly dp Posted: December 05, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5794238)
who is going to take lagares off their hands for 9 million bucks?
I dunno, there were teams interested in him last winter. I'd expect the Mets would have to eat a little bit, or take on some coming back their way. But maybe the Mets hold him as a 4th OF, even with Pollock in tow.

I would absolutely take Pollock at 4/$60 M, could def see him losing a step or two and not being worth much the last season, but there's upside, unlike with the Bruce signing, which was almost as much AAV.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: December 05, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5794255)
Sure, but Cain was a massive bargain at 5/$80 and everybody knows it ... so he's saying "my client is the guy you morons thought Cain was." :-)

I don't think Pollock will be getting 5 years; if he doesn't get 4, he should consider finding a 1-year prove he's healthy contract.
   22. formerly dp Posted: December 05, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5794338)
Sure, but Cain was a massive bargain at 5/$80 and everybody knows it ... so he's saying "my client is the guy you morons thought Cain was." :-)

He looks that way now...but the market hasn't really been set yet this winter. I dunno. Did Cain look like a major bargain at the time? Remember when we were saying Bruce and Frazier looked like (minor) bargains last winter?
   23. Zonk is One Individual Posted: December 05, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5794346)
Did Cain look like a major bargain at the time?


Well, the problem/issue was more "WTF are the Brewers doing?"

I don't recall the order of the Cain signing and the Yelich trade, but at least at the time - it seemed like the Brewers certainly didn't need two additional quality OFers. They had Braun in LF, a 24 yo Domingo Santana coming off a 30 HR/126 OPS+ season in RF, plus Keon Broxton who certainly has some holes - but is a fairly nice 4th OF in CF. That's on top of a couple well-thought-of prospects in Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinson who folks figured were 'ready'.

I don't think I was alone in thinking "Why do the Brewers want BOTH Cain and Yelich?" - even with the Yelich trade subtracting Brinson.

But what do I know... I'm a Cubs fan and they took our division title from us, so clearly they knew more than I.
   24. formerly dp Posted: December 05, 2018 at 06:26 PM (#5794352)
Well, the problem/issue was more "WTF are the Brewers doing?"
I guess my question is more "if he was such an obvious bargain at the time, why didn't anyone else sign him?".
   25. Ziggy's screen name Posted: December 05, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5794358)
Pollock is one of those guys who looks like he could have been a superstar if he just could have stayed healthy. Full seasons plus a bump in production because he's not hurting all the time. He could have been Andrew McCutchen.
   26. Adam Starblind Posted: December 05, 2018 at 08:43 PM (#5794399)
Remember when we were saying Bruce and Frazier looked like (minor) bargains last winter?


I remember people saying Frazier looked like a bargain. I don't remember anyone understanding why the Mets paid what they did for Bruce.
   27. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 08:45 PM (#5794400)
I guess my question is more "if he was such an obvious bargain at the time, why didn't anyone else sign him?".


I mean, sometimes that stuff just happens. I guess Cain was in his early 30s, but he'd been one of the best players in the game for several years. Last year's FA market was notably weird, to the point that some people suspected collusion. A very similar thing happened to Vlad Guerrero in the 03-04 offseason, and he was just 28 at the time.
   28. Zonk is One Individual Posted: December 05, 2018 at 08:49 PM (#5794403)
The Bruce signing reminded me of the Cubs signed no Jeromy Burnitz - looking it up, I guess Burnitz was older than I Remember, but my strong recollection was ugh... so we’re just going to sign non-crappy players and aim for .500. Zzzzzzzz
   29. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 09:01 PM (#5794410)
Jeromy Burnitz was a pretty crappy player by the time the Cubs signed him.
   30. Adam Starblind Posted: December 06, 2018 at 06:50 AM (#5794476)
A very similar thing happened to Vlad Guerrero in the 03-04 offseason, and he was just 28 at the time.


Vlad though had a back injury the previous season. Reporting was that some teams were worried about that type of injury for Vlad because of his "violent" swing. Vlad was Teh Fear of his generation.
   31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:02 AM (#5794548)
Remember when we were saying Bruce and Frazier looked like (minor) bargains last winter?


Given that Bruce had been right around replacement level in three of his previous four seasons, I saw him as a semi-obvious trap, not a bargain of any sort.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5794646)
Given that Bruce had been right around replacement level in three of his previous four seasons, I saw him as a semi-obvious trap, not a bargain of any sort.

I recall the collective BBTF wisdom was that Frazier was a bargain, and Bruce a massive overpay.

And Frazier, even in a down season, was a bargain. $8M for 1.9 WAR is a good result in FA.
   33. PreservedFish Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:11 PM (#5794648)
I am quite content to have Frazier at 3B for $9M next year.
   34. Nasty Nate Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5794653)
I don't recall the order of the Cain signing and the Yelich trade, but at least at the time - it seemed like the Brewers certainly didn't need two additional quality OFers. They had Braun in LF, a 24 yo Domingo Santana coming off a 30 HR/126 OPS+ season in RF, plus Keon Broxton who certainly has some holes - but is a fairly nice 4th OF in CF. That's on top of a couple well-thought-of prospects in Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinson who folks figured were 'ready'.
Plus they had Thames who had started 15ish games in the OF in 2017, was coming of a 125 OPS+ season, and was also having his 1B playing time squeezed by Jesus Aguilar.
   35. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5794656)
At the break in 2015 Todd Frazier had 25 homers and an ops of .922 (.284/.337/.585) The Reds were not terrible coming into the break but were about 15 games behind. Is not trading Frazier at that moment the worst non-move by any team in the last five years? I ask because it was all over the place then that the Reds could get some serious swag for Frazier as his contract wasn't up until end of 2016 IIRC. And Frazier seriously tanked the rest of the season.
   36. Hysterical & Useless Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5794659)
If you're a baseball player, April really can't be your cruelest month


Ken Reitz agrees completely.
   37. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5794665)
34--regarding Thames Aguilar barely made the team this spring even after doing ok in 2017 and did not get many at bats until Thames got hurt early Mayish. And to the other posts on Cain and then Yelich Broxton had way too much swing and miss in his game for the Brewers to feel ok about him in the lineup daily. And Stearns was laser focused on making the defense better so the Cain signing checked all the boxes. Yelich per the Brewers leadership was a thing that happened quickly and Stearns said hey we have to get this asset because he's a good player and getting good cost controlled players is a good thing.
   38. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5794718)
At the break in 2015 Todd Frazier had 25 homers and an ops of .922 (.284/.337/.585) The Reds were not terrible coming into the break but were about 15 games behind. Is not trading Frazier at that moment the worst non-move by any team in the last five years? I ask because it was all over the place then that the Reds could get some serious swag for Frazier as his contract wasn't up until end of 2016 IIRC. And Frazier seriously tanked the rest of the season.


I feel like the Reds are the champs of holding on to players too long. The franchise is still smarting from the Frank Robinson - Milt Pappas trade. :-)

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