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Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Mets’ Jose Reyes: Continues late-season offensive bender

Reyes went 4-for-5 with his 14th homer, two RBI and two runs against the Marlins on Tuesday.
The veteran infielder continues to impress with this late-season surge—over his last 22 games, Reyes has hit .389 with five homers, eight steals, 16 RBI and 22 runs. That’s some impressive stat stuffing from a guy who was looking washed up earlier in the season, and it doesn’t seem like Reyes is going to slow down over the remaining games.

Since April 13th, Reyes has hit .261/.335/.444 despite a .275 BABIP. According to fangraphs, he has been worth 1.8 WAR, but BR has him as sub-replacement at 0.2. He has also stolen 22 bases and been CS 5 times.

The difference in WAR is interesting. It is essentially all defense.

Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 20, 2017 at 10:54 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jose reyes, mets

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 20, 2017 at 04:12 PM (#5535307)
I wonder what the Mets are going to do with Reyes, Cabrera, and Flores. Reyes is a free agent but would probably return if the Mets wanted him and Cabrera has a cheap option, 8.5 million if he's not bought out for 6.5 million.
   2. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2017 at 04:23 PM (#5535319)
I wonder what the Mets are going to do with Reyes, Cabrera, and Flores.


Same thing they did this year, I suspect. Unless they find a taker for Cabrera.

   3. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2017 at 04:25 PM (#5535321)
I asked this in another thread but nobody took it up.

Who would you rather have today, Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez? (Ignore contracts)

They're the same age, they have the same career WAR. Reyes looks like a reasonable utility infielder at this point. Ramirez looks more boom/bust to me, a guy that could be a good DH with a bounceback but also might be just totally done contributing.
   4. RJ in TO Posted: September 20, 2017 at 04:35 PM (#5535333)
I haven't seen Reyes play this year but, based on his time in Toronto, I'm a lot more inclined to believe B-R's current estimates of his defense than Fangraphs.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2017 at 04:58 PM (#5535353)
#3 ... If I'm an AL team, I have no interest in Hanley at all. He was OKish at 1B last year so it might not be a complete waste but I'd still prefer to never have him in the field. As an AL team, I might convince myself that he can rebound to a 110-115 OPS+ which is still not great at DH but might be my best option. Not that I'd be lining up to bring in Reyes as my main backup IF (300-400 PA) but at least I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

Even as an AL team I suppose I choose Reyes but only for wishy-washy reasons. Hanley would have to start and it's a bigger risk to have a starter flop. If Reyes flops, backup IF are easy to find and I'm probably not much worse off than if I'd picked another backup IF off the trash heap to start with.

Component-wise I guess I do have more faith in Hanley's bat but, while I wouldn't say I have faith in Reyes' defense, Reyes has much more defensive value.

BTW, the buyout on Cabrera is $2 M so it's an extra $6.5. His bat is still solid so I think I'd do it -- some 2B, 3B, 1B, as little SS as possible. The 2018 Mets offense should have plenty of playing time to pass around. Unless they have 2B/3B prospects I don't know about, you just want to cobble something together plus the option of giving Smith and Conforto some time off against tough LHP.
   6. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 20, 2017 at 05:00 PM (#5535354)
I haven't seen Reyes play this year but, based on his time in Toronto, I'm a lot more inclined to believe B-R's current estimates of his defense than Fangraphs.

I haven't watched as much baseball this year as I have had in the past so I can't really comment about how he looks in the field with much confidence. One point in his favor is the fact that he really has been sure-handed so far this season. He has only made 8 errors in 1032 innings as an infielder, and only 3 between second base and SS in 750+ innings. He has been pretty good at making plays as a middle infielder although I can't really comment on range.
   7. RJ in TO Posted: September 20, 2017 at 05:08 PM (#5535359)
He has been pretty good at making plays as a middle infielder although I can't really comment on range.

For whatever little it's worth, his range factor at SS is somewhere around a half play (using RF/9) below league average. It's certainly possible the drop in errors is just a matter of him not being able to get to anything challenging anymore.

Oddly, in the smaller samples at 3B and 2B, his RF/9 is pretty much dead-on league average.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2017 at 05:14 PM (#5535363)
It's certainly possible the drop in errors is just a matter of him not being able to get to anything challenging anymore.


This never makes sense to me. Reyes is still getting to balls that are challenging for a man of his limited range.
   9. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 20, 2017 at 05:15 PM (#5535364)
Oddly, in the smaller samples at 3B and 2B, his RF/9 is pretty much dead-on league average.

Is that surprising though? Wouldn't you expect improvement in range as you move along the defensive spectrum?
   10. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2017 at 05:22 PM (#5535367)
...
   11. RJ in TO Posted: September 20, 2017 at 05:28 PM (#5535374)
Is that surprising though? Wouldn't you expect improvement in range as you move along the defensive spectrum?
I never know how much improvement to expect in these as players shift along the defensive spectrum. If the issue is reaction time or arm strength, then you wouldn't expect his RF to improve by much as he moves from SS to 3B. If his issue is raw range or foot speed, then you wouldn't expect his RF to improve by much as he moves from SS to 2B. But in both, he's seeing a big improvement relative to league, and those are both despite his general lack of experience at both positions.

Of course, that's also before considering whether there's anything wacky with the distribution of chances Mets' fielders have seen this year, and sample sizes, and the general low value of range factor as an evaluator anyway.
   12. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 20, 2017 at 07:05 PM (#5535412)
If I am an NL team, I'd rather have Reyes because of versatility. On an AL team, I'm ambivalent. If Reyes is really terrible on defense, he's not much use as a utility player.
   13. Howie Menckel Posted: September 20, 2017 at 07:47 PM (#5535430)
Mets all-time leaders

HITS
1 Wright 1777
2 Reyes 1481

RUNS
1 Wright 949
2 Reyes 851

TOTAL BASES
1 Wright 2945
2 Reyes 2268

DOUBLES
1 Wright 390
2 Reyes 258

RUNS CREATED
1 Wright 1134
2 Reyes 810

TIMES ON BASE
1 Wright 2583
2 Reyes 1894

   14. Lassus Posted: September 20, 2017 at 08:10 PM (#5535451)
If Reyes is really terrible on defense

Will I sound too much like Mike Francesca if I say that if you make 8 errors in 1032 innings it's simply not possible for you to be terrible on defense?
   15. Howie Menckel Posted: September 20, 2017 at 08:19 PM (#5535459)
I wonder what the Mets are going to do with Reyes, Cabrera, and Flores.

and TJ Rivera, a similar hitter with multiple positions

amazing to have 4 players who are medicore hitters but who play the infield - so if their defense was pretty good, you'd have something. but if not? well, still every team could probably be content with one. but 4?

2017 GAMES STARTED by these 4

1B - Flores 20, Rivera 17
2B - Cabrera 32, Reyes 15, Flores 10, Rivera 8
3B - Flores 49, Cabrera 32, Reyes 31, Rivera 25
SS - Reyes 70, Cabrera 44
LF - Reyes 1, Rivera 1

so we have a 3B-1B-2B, a 3B-1B, a SS-3B-2B, and a SS-3B-2B again
   16. Leroy Kincaid Posted: September 20, 2017 at 09:02 PM (#5535484)
Wait...A "bender" is a good thing?
   17. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 20, 2017 at 10:38 PM (#5535540)
Will I sound too much like Mike Francesca if I say that if you make 8 errors in 1032 innings it's simply not possible for you to be terrible on defense?

Personally, I tend to agree but would rather than say it's not possible, I'd say that it is really difficult. It's like being a bad hitter when you hit .300, it's possible, just not that easy to do.
   18. TheHomeRunsOfJuanPierre Posted: September 22, 2017 at 02:11 PM (#5536936)
At no point is this news, and this minutae should never be a post on this site.

   19. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: September 22, 2017 at 02:28 PM (#5536957)
I'm not sure you understand the point of this site.

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