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Sunday, February 15, 2009

Mets may drop Reyes from leadoff spot

There’s a great old punk song that goes “Ya Ha Ha Be Be” over and over for no apparent reason. I find myself now humming that.

New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel is pondering the idea of dropping his speedy shortstop from the leadoff spot, one of several tweaks that could be on tap for a team coming off consecutive September collapses.

Luis Castillo might get a shot at the top of the lineup, perhaps with Carlos Beltran batting second and Reyes No. 3. Reyes could also be handed more leadership responsibilities on defense, such as aligning other infielders and visiting the mound.

It’s all part of the master plan for Manuel, entering his first full season in charge of the Mets. After general manager Omar Minaya rebuilt a wretched bullpen this winter, Manuel is ready to make his own mark.

“My emphasis will be on team vs. individual. I think that message is so critical,” he said Saturday.

“This is not about statistical success. This is about winning as a team, and you have to put people in positions that you feel is best to win as a team,” Manuel said during a 40-minute news conference, one day before New York’s first official workout for pitchers and catchers.

“Whether that means Jose batting second, third, whatever—first or leading off—you have to accomplish that. And that’s a big part of the message throughout spring training: The game takes precedent over individual stats.”

And more from Marty “Empty Blog” Noble.

Repoz Posted: February 15, 2009 at 02:13 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fantasy baseball, mets, sabermetrics

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   1. Leroy Kincaid Posted: February 15, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3077295)
There’s a great old punk song that goes “Ya Ha Ha Be Be” over and over for no apparent reason.

Don't they all go like that?
   2. The District Attorney Posted: February 15, 2009 at 03:13 AM (#3077302)
Well, this is kinda weird. I do like the idea of Beltran 2nd (in the abstract anyway -- I dunno if it works with the Mets' current lineup, at least against a righty where it'd mean the lefties Church, Murphy, and Schneider all bunched between #5 and #8.) And I like the idea of a manager telling his players that they don't decide what their roles are, he does... but at the same time, that in and of itself is not a reason to make a managerial decision. Why should Castillo hit 1st? Why should you give one of your worst hitters the most plate appearances? And why should Reyes hit 3rd? That's what I'm not getting.
   3. RedRobot8 Posted: February 15, 2009 at 03:17 AM (#3077306)
Excellent idea, Jerry. Just this afternoon I was sitting here trying to figure out how to give _more_ ABs to Luis Castillo.

I'm all for creative lineup solutions, but I was hoping for something more along the lines of:
Reyes Beltran Wright Delgado Church Murphy Castillo Schneider P

Well, that's not quite true; I was really hoping for:
vR: Reyes Beltran Wright Dunn Delgado Church Murphy Schnider P
vL: Reyes Beltran Wright Dunn Tatis Delgado Castillo Castro P

but beggars can't be choosers, right, Omar?
   4. Lassus Posted: February 15, 2009 at 03:18 AM (#3077307)
This is one of those ideas when I first heard it I was all "Yes! No, wait, no! I mean, er, what? Could you repeat the question?"

I'm not quite sure how I feel about it yet. And yes, it is pretty dependent upon how much or how little Castillo sucks.
   5. AJM Posted: February 15, 2009 at 03:21 AM (#3077308)
It sounded good until I saw that Beltran would be ahead of Reyes.
   6. How to lose a guy in jemile weeks Posted: February 15, 2009 at 03:27 AM (#3077310)
And silly me, I thought that I'd be the first to gripe about Castillo PAs five posts in. Never underestimate you guys. It's really looking like there are not many more moves for the Mets to make.
   7. rpackrat Posted: February 15, 2009 at 03:40 AM (#3077320)
If Castillo can still post a .360-ish OBP, it's not a terrible idea, though I'd drop Jose to 2, not 3. Getting on base is about the only thing Castillo does well. It makes some sense to have Jose, who actually has some power, hitting behind him. Jose is more likely to drive in Castillo than Castillo is to drive in Jose. But it probably makes even more sense to just drop Castillo to the 8 spot, leave Jose at leadoff and put Beltran in the 2 hole.
   8. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 15, 2009 at 04:34 AM (#3077353)
If Castillo can in fact get on base a little, it might even make sense to bat him ninth and the pitcher 8th.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2009 at 04:40 AM (#3077358)
On a lot of teams, this would be an OK, maybe even good idea. OBP and speed at the top of the order is, at least, classic.

But last I checked, Reyes provided OBP and speed and is a good overall hitter too. Beltran provides OBP and speed and is a good overall hitter too.

I'm pretty sure "The Book" would put the optimal lineup at Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Church/Murphy in whatever order, who cares. At least against righties. Against lefties, I could see Castillo, Reyes, Beltran, Wright in the top 4 in some order.
   10. billyshears Posted: February 15, 2009 at 07:04 AM (#3077423)
This is an awful idea as Castillo should be hitting as little as possible. But it's likely just spring training BS. Manuel didn't exactly seem enamored of Castillo last season and I imagine he won't show faith in him for an especially long period of time.
   11. PreservedFish Posted: February 15, 2009 at 07:17 AM (#3077429)
Manuel didn't exactly seem enamored of Castillo last season


He certainly didn't.

The importance of Ramon Martinez in the final week of last season is something I'm likely to forget, and, if ever reminded, reject as being totally implausible.
   12. Srul Itza At Home Posted: February 15, 2009 at 08:42 AM (#3077443)
If Castillo can still post a .360-ish OBP, it's not a terrible idea, though I'd drop Jose to 2, not 3. Getting on base is about the only thing Castillo does well. It makes some sense to have Jose, who actually has some power, hitting behind him. Jose is more likely to drive in Castillo than Castillo is to drive in Jose. But it probably makes even more sense to just drop Castillo to the 8 spot, leave Jose at leadoff and put Beltran in the 2 hole.

Why not just go all LaRussa and bat Castillo 9th?
   13. MSalfino Posted: February 15, 2009 at 07:16 PM (#3077566)
If only there were a way to bat Castillo first AND second.


If Castillo can still post a .360-ish OBP, it's not a terrible idea

I repeat, you can never expect guys who can't hit to keep getting walks. PITCHERS AREN'T STUPID!
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: February 15, 2009 at 07:22 PM (#3077569)
I repeat, you can never expect guys who can't hit to keep getting walks. PITCHERS AREN'T STUPID!


Mark Smellhorn's head just exploded
   15. MSalfino Posted: February 15, 2009 at 07:33 PM (#3077579)
Bellhorn had power and could hurt you. Castillo is a singles hitter who doesn't hit singles.
   16. rpackrat Posted: February 15, 2009 at 11:51 PM (#3077746)
You can repeat it all you want, but the fact is that Castillo has a career .367 OBP over 13 major league seasons. He is also only a year removed from a .301 batting average, so it seems a bit premature to declare, based on one injury-marred season, that he can't even hit singles anymore.
   17. The District Attorney Posted: February 16, 2009 at 12:05 AM (#3077752)
But if you hit Delgado, Church, Murphy and Schneider 4th through 8th in whatever order, then you've bunched up all the lefties. A LOOGY could stay in for five batters and expect to get them all out, unless Castillo intimidates them into taking the LOOGY out, which he probably wouldn't. Even if you hit Delgado 3rd and Wright 4th, the LOOGY could still mow down four guys.

I agree that Beltran would probably feel very comfortable hitting 2nd, and in most other lineups would be worth more hitting there, including in the hypothetical one where Moises Alou played baseball. But given the specifics of the players the Mets have in '09, I think a lefty has to hit 2nd. I'd nominate Murphy, since he seems to be a disciplined hitter and since I really don't know whether Church is going to be worth much of anything; concussions are freaky.

Again, I'd like to hear Manuel explain why exactly Castillo should hit 1st and Reyes 3rd, other than "they'll hit where I want them to hit", which, although I agree with the principle, isn't really a reason.
   18. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 02:00 AM (#3077830)
The Mets aren't serious about making the playoffs, but if they were they'd set up like this:

v LH Castillo Reyes Wright Delgado Beltran Tatis Castro <OFer not Church>

v RH Murphy Reyes Beltran Wright Delgado Church Schneider <2bman not Castillo>

The DA's right, that you can't let someone's LOOGY run the table.
   19. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 04:54 AM (#3077926)
Speaking of which, does anyone know where I can get minor league splits? Can't find the Murph's on TheBaseballCube.com
   20. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 16, 2009 at 05:03 AM (#3077933)
Ark, minorleaguesplits.com provides splits.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: February 16, 2009 at 05:07 AM (#3077936)
You can repeat it all you want, but the fact is that Castillo has a career .367 OBP over 13 major league seasons. He is also only a year removed from a .301 batting average, so it seems a bit premature to declare, based on one injury-marred season, that he can't even hit singles anymore.


The thing with Castillo is that everyone predicted his decline perfectly. You knew that he was slowing down - that his knees were bothering him - that after the steals fell, the defense would go and the batting average would follow. Everyone was talking about this stuff, in specific terms, when he was a free agent in 2003. It happened at age 32.

I don't see it as an isolated bad year in an otherwise consistent record - it is the end that we knew was coming.
   22. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 16, 2009 at 05:27 AM (#3077943)
Castillo stole a lot of bases last when you consider he didn't play that much and he was pretty successful doing so. Give him a normal BABIP from the right side (the side where he actually has some power) and his offensive numbers are pretty good.

I don't think Castillo is going to light the world on fire but .700 OPS is probably where I'd put the Over/Under. I am more worried about his defense than I am about his offense.
   23. MSalfino Posted: February 16, 2009 at 06:04 AM (#3077952)
I don't see it as an isolated bad year in an otherwise consistent record - it is the end that we knew was coming.

Yep.
   24. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:25 AM (#3077963)
Thanks, Russlan. That's one interesting, no nonsense site. Looks like Murphy's got a real platoon split going--more than I had thought--which obviously undermines any shot he's got at a full-time job. 832 OPS vs RH in 643 ABs, 725 v LH in 322 ABs.
   25. MSalfino Posted: February 16, 2009 at 02:57 PM (#3078015)
Thanks, Russlan. That's one interesting, no nonsense site. Looks like Murphy's got a real platoon split going--more than I had thought--which obviously undermines any shot he's got at a full-time job. 832 OPS vs RH in 643 ABs, 725 v LH in 322 ABs.

No. You've missed the key point that this OPS against lefties has risen three straight years.
   26. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 16, 2009 at 03:09 PM (#3078020)
No. You've missed the key point that this OPS against lefties has risen three straight years.

I can't say whether Murphy has actually improved, but I don't think you can read much if anything into 350 PA spread over three years.
   27. The District Attorney Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3078238)
I don't think it matters for now, he ain't playing against lefties this year anyway.
   28. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3078242)
No. You've missed the key point that this OPS against lefties has risen three straight years.
It's encouraging, to be sure, but against it there's the Mets lack of belief that he can handle lefties and, as Joe notes, there are sample size issues. I'd love to see him learn to hit ML lefties, though. If Sam M.'s around perhaps he'll want to weigh in on Murph's platoon issues, and nickname possibilities--"Murph's" too colorless.
   29. The District Attorney Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:20 PM (#3078245)
Well, I'm ruling out "Danny Baseball" right now.
   30. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:29 PM (#3078250)
It does seem a little early for that.

Well, that's not quite true; I was really hoping for:
vR: Reyes Beltran Wright Dunn Delgado Church Murphy Schnider P
vL: Reyes Beltran Wright Dunn Tatis Delgado Castillo Castro P
Hey red, if you're still around, how do you feel about moving Murphy to the top of the order against righties? Not an ox on the basepaths, good enough OBP...
   31. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:29 PM (#3078251)
Well, I'm ruling out "Danny Baseball" right now.
Smurph?
   32. Gaelan Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:44 PM (#3078267)
A large platoon split is a major point in Murphy's favour. Since left handed hitting outfielders who aren't all-stars should never play against lefties anyway this, if true, makes him a better player than his basic splits would indicate.
   33. bunyon Posted: February 16, 2009 at 07:54 PM (#3078281)
But if you hit Delgado, Church, Murphy and Schneider 4th through 8th in whatever order, then you've bunched up all the lefties. A LOOGY could stay in for five batters and expect to get them all out,

Mets management is intrigued; what is this LOOGY concept of which you speak?
   34. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 08:06 PM (#3078285)
"Smurph?"

Maybe in that ironic fat-guys-named-slim and bald-guys-named-curly sort of way. B-Ref lists him at 6'3".
   35. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: February 16, 2009 at 08:34 PM (#3078309)
Just as the notion of having a speedster leadoff and the #2 guy bunting him over is a relic of the deadball era, the notion of spacing lefties/righties in a lineup is also mostly a relic of a bygone era. In 1980, it made sense, in order to prevent the other team's lefty reliever from facing all of your left handed batters. In 2008, teams don't carry 4 relievers plus a swingman; they carry 7 or even 8 relievers. Teams have multiple lefty relievers. Whether you spread out your LHB or stack them together, the ones with significant platoon disadvantages are going to be facing a LHP.
   36. PreservedFish Posted: February 16, 2009 at 08:35 PM (#3078312)
Mets management is intrigued; what is this LOOGY concept of which you speak?


Not sure if this is a joke? The Mets led the world in frequency of pitching changes, and shortest reliever stints. The entire problem with the team last year was that everyone in the bullpen was an OOGY.

Are you being snarky because they got rid of Schoeneweis?
   37. TugMcGraw Posted: February 16, 2009 at 11:46 PM (#3078459)
I can't even believe Manuel is thinking about giving even MORE at bats to a guy with an OPS of 660. Yeah, like that makes all the sense in the world ... Let's take plate appearances away from somebody who actually produces runs and give them to one of the automatic outs. Will somebody please tell Manuel he can only hurt the team by thinking?
   38. bunyon Posted: February 17, 2009 at 12:13 AM (#3078483)
Are you being snarky because they got rid of Schoeneweis?

I was being snarky (and a bit dated) by how they used SS.
   39. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: February 17, 2009 at 12:21 AM (#3078491)
It's not that Castillo is an automatic out - he had a .355 OBP last year. It's that he never *ever* gets an extra base hit. Since he can still move pretty well on the base paths, I don't think he does too much damage at the top of the lineup. And if Reyes is hitting in front of him, he's the epitome of "bat control" guy, so he can give Jose a chance to get into scoring position. I hate him, but not because he makes too many outs.
   40. TugMcGraw Posted: February 17, 2009 at 04:24 AM (#3078703)
For all his "bat control", he has some of the most incomplete abs on the team. He rarely moves the runner over, and his OB #s are inflated because of walks - which are easily the weakest "positive" statistic you can have. He is a weak batter, and as I stated initially, giving more plate appearances to a weak batter because of an inherently incomplete stat like OBP, defeats the goal of putting your team in a position to win.

The four-five best batters on the team need to bat in the top five of the order. It's that simple, and there's no way Castillo's bat control or capacity to take a walk diminishes that fact.
   41. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: February 18, 2009 at 03:05 AM (#3079670)
You're the Luis Castillo of BBTF posters.
   42. Lassus Posted: February 18, 2009 at 03:25 AM (#3079680)
It's not that Castillo is an automatic out - he had a .355 OBP last year. It's that he never *ever* gets an extra base hit.

Wasn't there some magical 2-game stretch where he had 2 HR last year? And I think one of them was even an important one, too.
   43. Dr. Vaux Posted: February 18, 2009 at 03:45 AM (#3079692)
Lassus, I checked out Richard Edward Wilson. Very cool stuff.
   44. TugMcGraw Posted: February 18, 2009 at 01:07 PM (#3079845)
Hah! Agreed, Mets Fan. That's why I traditionally post at the end of a thread! You, on the other hand, mistakenly believe you have something to offer and should learn to bat lower in the batting order.

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