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Friday, August 10, 2012

Mets may give R.A. Dickey more starts to get 20 wins

As Capt. Parameter once said…“Ooh, look…magic number ends in zero!”.

Last season Mets manager Terry Collins pulled Jose Reyes after a first-inning bunt single in the last game of the season in an attempt to guarantee his shortstop a batting title and this year he may give R.A. Dickey extra starts to get to 20 wins and the Cy Young Award.

Collins had discussed the team’s plans to have the knuckleballer pitch every fourth day down the stretch, but then said they’ve scratched those plans as the team’s fallen out of the playoff race. Instead of pitching him regularly on short rest, Collins said he may do it sporadically in the last month of the season.

“He certainly deserves the that shot,” Collins told reporters, including MLB.com. “I thought Jose Reyes deserved to win the batting title last year, too. I got criticized for that, and I may get criticized for this.”

Dickey said he didn’t care about the 20 wins or the Cy Young, he said he’d do what was asked of him.

“I would not want to be on three days’ rest purely to win more games,” Dickey said. “If we can claw back in this thing and they think that I give our team the best chance to win, or a good chance to win, then I’m willing to do that. And I’ve voiced that. But we’ll see where it goes.”

Repoz Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:07 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, mets

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   1. bunyon Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4205104)
Needing to claw back into it, maybe they should pitch him everyday.
   2. The District Attorney Posted: August 10, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4205192)
Wouldn't quite go that far ;-) But yeah, I'm thinking one could do this just because it might help the team win. Sounds like Dickey feels much the same way.

(Another reason not to do it solely for Cy Young reasons is that Dickey could just as easily pitch like crap if used this way -- we don't know.)

Remember when they offered Mark Eichhorn a start on the last day of the 1986 season so he could win the ERA title? He turned it down. Imagine a reliever, even an underarm pitcher, throwing 157 innings. Anyway.
   3. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: August 10, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4205203)
Three days rest might work in theory* (tired arm doesn't hurt the knuckler, and may help) but Dicky isn't your prototypical knuckler. He throws as hard as most starters and leads the NL in strikeouts (more than Strasburg!). Won't throwing him on short rest decrease his effectiveness more than most knucklers? Will he become a below average pitcher or just an average knuckleball pitcher. Is there a difference?

*this theory may be bullsh!t
   4. billyshears Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4205207)
So long as we have a Mets thread going, Joel Sherman has a pretty good column in the NYP today. Basically, the point is that apart from the Win/Loss record, the Mets have had very few performances this season that are cause for significant optimism that the next good Mets team is right around the corner. Neither Ike Davis nor Lucas Duda established themselves as a legitimate middle of the order bat. Murphy has hit well, and is a valuable piece, but he's more on the order of a good hitter for a 2b who lengthens the line-up rather than a core player. Thole has regressed to the point where he may not be a viable starter. Of all the Mets' young position players, Tejada is the only one who has exceeded expectations, and as valuable as he may be, I still don't think he will ever be one of the Top 5 players on a championship level team.

Even when you start going up and down the farm system, you're going to have an awfully hard time finding position players who even have a non-negligible chance to be very good MLB players. Nieuwenhuis is exactly the same today as he was a year ago - a fringe MLB starting OF. Valdespin has been better than expected, but he still has significant strike zone issues. Den Dekker has cratered in AAA. Lagares has been just OK. Marte has been a bit less than OK. Flores was good in his third stint at A+, but only OK so far in AA. Cesar Puello has made no progress. Cory Vaughn hasn't quelled any of the doubts about him. We used our first round draft pick on a guy who has a ceiling of average MLB shortstop. Of all of the position players in the Mets minor league system, the only ones who even look like they have the ability to be core players on a good team are Brandon Nimmo (who is too far away even to really think about) and Aderlin Rodriguez (who has issues, but also crazy power).

Now, the Mets have more than their share of young arms with potential, but I really have no idea how they are going to construct a lineup they can win with any time in the next 3 years.
   5. Lassus Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4205247)
I dunno. Ike Davis obviously sucked for a long time, but he honestly seems to have found himself. If Murphy is a good, solid hitter, Davis a power threat, and Tejada legitimately good, Wright a team-carrier, one free agent, and one improving youngster (they do improve on occasion) seems as much to hang a lineup on as anyone else has.

I mean, I know I suffer from optimism, and the team obviously needs things to go well, but the conclusion of no winning in the next three years sounds like a conclusion written around.
   6. Ravecc Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4205249)
When TC brought this up last week to be implemented this week, I thought it was a terrible idea. Dickey has been less than godlike, Niese, Young and Harvey have just pitched well, Santana is coming back fresh. Who were they going to screw to get more Dickey starts?

Additionally, what #3 said. Dickey wasn’t great when they used him out of the pen, and that was during his throw day. Just leave him alone and stop messing with what works.
   7. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM (#4205262)
Since ike had Valley Fever in the offseason, I'm willing to give him a pass this year. I think we have to wait til next year to get a truer reading.
   8. The District Attorney Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4205264)
I'm trying to decide whether I agree with #4.

I think my big objection is the omission of a huge development: David Wright became a superstar again. I know he's an ancient 29, but I still think that's the most important thing that happened to the Mets franchise this year ;-) And hey, I think it's plausible to consider Dickey part of the team's future as well. Harvey and Tejada are of course progressing extremely well.

Murphy has (fingers crossed...) established that he is playable at 2B, so that's really nice. Although I agree that he is not a key piece, that's still gotta go in the plus column. Parnell at least pulled out of his death spiral, although I'm not a big fan. I think Thole and Niese have treaded water. It would have been nice if they had taken a step forward (especially the latter, which I honestly was expecting), but their performance doesn't worry me either. I think a lefty-hitting catcher with OBP skills won't have trouble keeping a job.

Ike does make me nervous. I wouldn't sweat it much if he got off to a horrendous start and then hit like we expected in the remainder of the season. That hasn't happened. I suppose there's still time.

In sum, I think the Mets have "players to build on" in an abstract sense, but the roster doesn't necessarily gel: there's a scary lack of power hitting, and the OF is a disaster area. The need for continual forward progress is part of why I'd like Duda called back up. If we can establish him as a quality young #5 type hitter, I think what we can then get for him will likely help more than playing these other OF options. Valdespin "looks like a player" in a scouting sense, but I don't think he is, really. Kirk is a marginal starting OF/good 4th OF, and I don't think we particularly need to play him any more to establish that. It seems like the D-Backs only dangle Justin Upton for kicks, but I'd trade most of the team to get him...
   9. Perro(s) Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4205265)
Terry Collins is terrible.
   10. billyshears Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4205268)
I dunno. Ike Davis obviously sucked for a long time, but he honestly seems to have found himself. If Murphy is a good, solid hitter, Davis a power threat, and Tejada legitimately good, Wright a team-carrier, one free agent, and one improving youngster (they do improve on occasion) seems as much to hang a lineup on as anyone else has.

I mean, I know I suffer from optimism, and the team obviously needs things to go well, but the conclusion of no winning in the next three years sounds like a conclusion written around.


Obviously, good things can happen. At least, it's a theoretical possibility (through there's no real evidence in the past 5 years that good things can in fact happen for the Mets). If a couple guys hit their 90% projection next year, things look a lot differently. But if you just assume that everybody stays in the 30 - 70% range, the near future doesn't look so great.
   11. Ravecc Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4205269)
The Mets will pretty much have to stay the same for 2013. The rotation is set: Dickey, Santana, Niese, Gee, Harvey. Infield is set: Davis, Murphy, Wright, Tejada. The plan for the OF seems to be a platoon of Bay and Duda in left, Valdy/Niewie in CF, and a mystery RF. They'll stick with Thole at C, but they really need a better backup. The bullpen will have to be completely rebuilt, but it will be more of the same non-expensive pieces.

The improvement will have to come in 2014 after they shed Santana and Bay and they have more than $2 to spend in the offseason. I hope Alderson is still around for that.

   12. Mark S. is bored Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4205274)
The Mets biggest issue in the next few years will be OF. An infield core of Thole, Wright, Tejada, Murphy and Davis is good enough for the next few years. It's not superstar, but not horrible. In the OF, they have pretty much no one above rookie leagues who profiles as a starting OF.
   13. JJ1986 Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4205275)
The team needs at least one more starting outfielder for next year. Even if Ike becomes a middle of the order hitter and if you get decent production from a Duda/someone (Hairston?) platoon in LF, you're short a middle of the order bat and Valdespin and Kirk are not the answers. Upton's probably not available, but I'd love to trade for Josh Willingham.

The list of FA outfielders this offseason is fairly depressing. BJ Upton would be my top choice but only if he's cheap. Melky Cabrera will be horribly overpaid, Bourn is a leadoff guy, I hate Victorino and Delmon Young would be the worst signing ever.
   14. PreservedFish Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4205276)
The success of the organization's pitchers isn't something to just be shoved aside. Dickey became a CYA candidate, Niese is having his best year, Gee made leaps before his freak injury, Harvey debuted with 500 strikeouts, Wheeler keeps cruising along in the minors. That's a lot of talent and a lot of good news.

Thole hasn't done much, Duda faltered, and Davis has been a disaster. Nevertheless the Mets have a very strong offense. They rank 6th in the league in R/G, despite Citifield, good for a 3rd in OPS+. Part of the run-scoring is boosted by the fact that the team has been weirdly clutch, and the OPS is boosted by great seasons from itinerant bench veterans like Hairston and Cedeno, but it just goes to show that if you can assemble a team without many holes it doesn't take much to score runs. Tejada and Murphy are both 3rd in the league in oWAR at their positions, which is nothing to sniff at. I think the infield will remain set for 2013, and if they can find some real outfielders, this offense can be in the top half of the league once again.

The bullpen has been outlandishly horrible, and this is the main reason that the team has done poorly. But I think we can all agree that bullpens are the least predictable part of a team - no reason the team is condemned to bullpen hell for the foreseeable future. Maybe next year Familia and Edgin are throwing lights out.

It's a shame that the team doesn't have more top talent among position prospects, but, we knew that this was the case before the year started.

on edit > cokes to other ahead of me that made the same points, and, I echo that Wright's return to stardom is probably the year's single most important development, and a heck of a lot better news than anything that could have plausibly gone on in the minors.
   15. The District Attorney Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4205281)
#13: If this team has proven one thing in the last 50 years, it would arguably be "don't sign non-superstar, aging corner outfielders" :)

Given that, I don't see an easy OF answer either. I really think you have to try to make a big trade, which with the Mets' financial and prospect resources, should be doable. I know Justin Upton might not be available, and I know the team hasn't made a big trade in a while in general, but I promise you, it can happen ;)
   16. PreservedFish Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4205293)
Thole is still just 25, and his career OPS+ is 92. Fine for a catcher. He's not too far off that mark this year. He's a fine candidate to start for the 2013 Mets.
   17. billyshears Posted: August 10, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4205296)
Delmon Young would be the worst signing ever.


You just know that sometime in mid-December, we're all going to be talking ourselves into a Delmon Young signing, right? Was very good in 2010. Coming into his age-27 season. Coming to the NL. It could work.
   18. Ravecc Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4205298)
The Mets have a weird collection of fringy lefty outfielders: Duda, Kirk, Valdespin, dan Dekker, Baxter. I wish they’d bring Duda back up to tryout the LF platoon. Valdespin is fast taking the Kirk road to exposure, albeit more colorfully.

Justin Upton would really be a lovely addition, wouldn’t he?

Sidenote: If Bell isn’t a fat POS, I would jump at the proposed BBB challenge trade.
   19. JJ1986 Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4205303)
Given that, I don't see an easy OF answer either. I really think you have to try to make a big trade, which with the Mets' financial and prospect resources, should be doable. I know Justin Upton might not be available, and I know the team hasn't made a big trade in a while in general, but I promise you, it can happen ;)


Who would you want to target? I think the guy needs to be an everyday player (not a lefty with platoon splits) and be able to play RF.
   20. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4205310)
The love affair with Ike Davis is odd.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4205312)
Also, having read that Sherman piece, he is being unnecessarily pessimistic. Here are some selections:

Not when significant parts of the Mets’ own hierarchy remain unsold that Ike Davis or Daniel Murphy can be part of a first-division right side of the infield.


The Mets already have a first-division offense.

Not when Jonathon Niese is showing second-half endurance issues once more and Dillon Gee has become a physical uncertainty.


Niese is fine. His ERA has barely budged since the All-Star break, and he's thrown 6+ innings every time. Gee has become a physical uncertainty, but only after proving, for the first time in his life, that he has the talent to be a good MLB starter.

Not when Jason Bay and Johan Santana are choking the payroll for one more season.
And not when even your two best players in 2012 — David Wright and R.A. Dickey — are facing their walk years in 2013.


These points are in direct contradiction of each other. When Bay and Santana clear off the payroll the Mets have virtually no long term payroll obligations (Niese has the only guaranteed contract), and it will be very easy to spend money on Wright and Dickey, even in the post-Madoff world. And Dickey won't cost that much, because he'll be 40 goddam years old.

   22. PreservedFish Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4205316)
The love affair with Ike Davis is odd.


What would you do with him? I'm glad the Mets have stuck with him, as frustrating as it's been. I think they were right to identify Davis, and not Duda, as the future of the position.
   23. Bob Tufts Posted: August 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4205322)
Can we start a "bring back Jeff Francouer" movement just to watch heads (and threads) explode? And Ryan Church is available......(ducks)
   24. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 10, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4205360)
Coming into his age-27 season.


Doesn't it seem like Delmon Young should be closer to 47 than 27?
   25. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: August 10, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4205372)
I'm sure the Wilpons would be delighted to spend some of their last remaining dollars on an outfielder facing charges for a hate crime against Jews!
   26. Jim Wisinski Posted: August 10, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4205384)
we're all going to be talking ourselves into a Delmon Young signing, right? Was very good in 2010


He wasn't though, he was a good but hardly spectacular offensive player with negative defensive and baserunning value. He'd barely be worth starting if he had that season every year and in reality he's got to be one of the worst players to have been given 2500+ PAs over the last six years.

Edit: Did a PI search on lowest WARS for players with 2500+ PAs over the last six years. I don't have a subscription and can't see the top names but going by the WAR totals it looks like Young is second on the list at -0.0. Figuring out the worst player, at a stunning -4.5, was as easy as typing "Yuniesky Betancourt" into the search box and scrolling down his page.
   27. thetailor Posted: August 10, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4205387)
We've had a couple very different characterizations bandied about on a couple of key parts of the Mets future. Here's the numbers on 'em:

Murphy: 3.2 fWAR in 2011, projected 2.2 fWAR in 2012. I think if these #'s are to be believed -- and Murphy passes my eye test as "subpar but certainly passable fielder" -- then we've got a piece. He's got 1500+ PA's in the majors at .295/.344/.437, so I'm willing to count on Murphy. He's 27.

Thole: 0.9 fWAR in 2011, projected 1.7 fWAR this year. Fangraphs loves Thole's defense this season. He's really regressed at the plate, though, so I'm not sue about him. He's .272/.342/.347 in almost 1000 PA's, so that's probably what we are looking at, if not a tick worse. Fun fact, his BABIP has been 305, 300, and 305 the last three years. He's 26.

Davis: 1.4 fWAR in 2011 (36 games), projected 0.2 fWAR this year. Eesh. He's been better recently, but he hasn't been the Ike that people were expecting. His last two months (51 games) he's hit .266/.322/.576. I never expected him to hit for average in the majors (look at that hitch in his swing!!) but I could live with an 800-850 OPS. Just as troubling, fangraphs is down on his fielding this year.

Generally, I agree with #4. Not a lot to love here. The pitching should come along and help, and the offense should remain capable, but there isn't just to project.
   28. Conor Posted: August 10, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4205388)
What would you do with him? I'm glad the Mets have stuck with him, as frustrating as it's been. I think they were right to identify Davis, and not Duda, as the future of the position.


Agreed. Davis is 25, plays at least to my eye what appears to be a good first base, and has a career 112 OPS+. He'll be arb eligible this year for the first time. Since June 1 he's hit for an 840 OPS. You of course can't just wave away the first 2 months of the season, but maybe he should get some slack because played his last game of 2011 in May, and had to deal with the hay fever in the spring of this year. There was probably a time when the guy was overrated; I remember some talk in 2010 when Heyward was killing it and Strasburg coming up that there was a lot of great rookies in the NL East and Ike was the Mets version of that and I thought that was overblown.

But I think he's still gonna be a pretty solid player next year. Likely not a star since you need to be an awesome hitter at first base to be a star, but I do think the Mets were right to stick with him over Duda.

The Mets definitely need to find some bats in this off-season, or at some point if they want to compete any time soon. They do have some really promising young arms though.
   29. Lassus Posted: August 10, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4205403)
Generally, I agree with #4. Not a lot to love here.

Seems about right to leave out Tejada from a list of players' numbers to prove we are going to suck. ;-)
   30. thetailor Posted: August 10, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4205453)
We love Ruben over here. No issues there. Just going over the guys that I think opinions may diverge on :)
   31. Ravecc Posted: August 10, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4205487)
C'mon, there was a Ruben Tejada bobblehead night in Weeds. Jose who?
   32. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: August 10, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4205508)
Frikken Bay...
   33. The District Attorney Posted: August 10, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4205606)
Who would you want to target [in a trade]? I think the guy needs to be an everyday player (not a lefty with platoon splits) and be able to play RF.
Okay, let me pull up B-R and make some crap up. I'll assume that teams other than Arizona don't generally want to trade their franchise players. KC needs pitching more than hitting; maybe we deal them pitching for Alex Gordon. Toronto called up their big CF prospect Anthony Gose, so maybe they'd part with Colby Rasmus. Maybe Cincy thinks Jay Bruce is a .250 hitter who isn't progressing. Maybe a Jacoby Ellsbury, or less excitingly, a Corey Hart. I don't like these guys as much because I don't think they're really defensive outfielders, but I bet Brandon Belt, Logan Morrison and Carlos Quentin aren't considered untouchable by their teams.

(I know we're not going to get any of those guys for Jeremy Hafner, but I'm suggesting a "big" trade where we give up significant players.)

Maybe get a current infielder like Chase Utley or Hanley Ramirez and move him to OF where he probably should be anyway. Bring in a Matt LaPorta or something, see if a guy whom you can probably get for a song and who tears up the minors every time he goes down there will finally hit for you. (Travis Snider would have been good. J.D. Martinez has played badly enough that even the rebuilding Astros might no longer be interested.)

Get creative! Options need to be explored beyond signing free agents, sitting on kids, and trading guys two months before their contracts are up. (If you could get a Zack Wheeler in each of those trades, maybe you could get by on that, but that ain't gonna happen, sadly.)
   34. Ray (RDP) Posted: August 10, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4205629)
So... what the hell DID happen to Jason Bay?
   35. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 10, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4205654)
He was out for a while with a concussion in 2010. It seemed mild at the time...
   36. Frisco Cali Posted: August 10, 2012 at 06:32 PM (#4205739)
It seemed mild at the time...

It has been mild ever since...
   37. Swedish Chef Posted: August 12, 2012 at 08:43 AM (#4206682)
The improvement will have to come in 2014 after they shed Santana and Bay and they have more than $2 to spend in the offseason. I hope Alderson is still around for that.

They also have to either sign Wright to a massive contract or replace his production in other ways after 2013.

Of course they should sign him, if for no other reason to write Kranepool out of the Mets record book.
   38. Ravecc Posted: August 13, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4207297)
Any other move will have to be secondary to fixing the LOLpen. This is getting beyond ridiculous.
   39. Lassus Posted: August 13, 2012 at 02:12 PM (#4207325)
I was just laughing last night, it's gotten to that point.
   40. billyshears Posted: August 13, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4207332)
Any other move will have to be secondary to fixing the LOLpen.


Allow me to suggest not fixing the pen. Or at least not trying especially hard to fix the pen. The Mets used their last two pennies to try to fix the pen this past offseason. It failed miserably. Relievers are nothing if not unpredictable. Break in Mejia and Familia as relievers (and eventually give them a chance to start if it seems warranted), add them to the existing group and hope chance is on our side.
   41. Ravecc Posted: August 13, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4207360)
We’re still going to have Francisco and Parnell next year. O joy. Edgin seems decent, as long as his arm doesn’t fall off this year.

I hope they at least fire Warthen off that human cannonball they used in London. And take away the net.
   42. Lassus Posted: August 13, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4207366)
I'm fine with Parnell, but it is time for Warthen to go.

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