As Capt. Parameter once said…“Ooh, look…magic number ends in zero!”.
Last season Mets manager Terry Collins pulled Jose Reyes after a first-inning bunt single in the last game of the season in an attempt to guarantee his shortstop a batting title and this year he may give R.A. Dickey extra starts to get to 20 wins and the Cy Young Award.
Collins had discussed the team’s plans to have the knuckleballer pitch every fourth day down the stretch, but then said they’ve scratched those plans as the team’s fallen out of the playoff race. Instead of pitching him regularly on short rest, Collins said he may do it sporadically in the last month of the season.
“He certainly deserves the that shot,” Collins told reporters, including MLB.com. “I thought Jose Reyes deserved to win the batting title last year, too. I got criticized for that, and I may get criticized for this.”
Dickey said he didn’t care about the 20 wins or the Cy Young, he said he’d do what was asked of him.
“I would not want to be on three days’ rest purely to win more games,” Dickey said. “If we can claw back in this thing and they think that I give our team the best chance to win, or a good chance to win, then I’m willing to do that. And I’ve voiced that. But we’ll see where it goes.”
Repoz
Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:07 AM |
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1. bunyon Posted: August 10, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4205104)(Another reason not to do it solely for Cy Young reasons is that Dickey could just as easily pitch like crap if used this way -- we don't know.)
Remember when they offered Mark Eichhorn a start on the last day of the 1986 season so he could win the ERA title? He turned it down. Imagine a reliever, even an underarm pitcher, throwing 157 innings. Anyway.
*this theory may be bullsh!t
Even when you start going up and down the farm system, you're going to have an awfully hard time finding position players who even have a non-negligible chance to be very good MLB players. Nieuwenhuis is exactly the same today as he was a year ago - a fringe MLB starting OF. Valdespin has been better than expected, but he still has significant strike zone issues. Den Dekker has cratered in AAA. Lagares has been just OK. Marte has been a bit less than OK. Flores was good in his third stint at A+, but only OK so far in AA. Cesar Puello has made no progress. Cory Vaughn hasn't quelled any of the doubts about him. We used our first round draft pick on a guy who has a ceiling of average MLB shortstop. Of all of the position players in the Mets minor league system, the only ones who even look like they have the ability to be core players on a good team are Brandon Nimmo (who is too far away even to really think about) and Aderlin Rodriguez (who has issues, but also crazy power).
Now, the Mets have more than their share of young arms with potential, but I really have no idea how they are going to construct a lineup they can win with any time in the next 3 years.
I mean, I know I suffer from optimism, and the team obviously needs things to go well, but the conclusion of no winning in the next three years sounds like a conclusion written around.
Additionally, what #3 said. Dickey wasn’t great when they used him out of the pen, and that was during his throw day. Just leave him alone and stop messing with what works.
I think my big objection is the omission of a huge development: David Wright became a superstar again. I know he's an ancient 29, but I still think that's the most important thing that happened to the Mets franchise this year ;-) And hey, I think it's plausible to consider Dickey part of the team's future as well. Harvey and Tejada are of course progressing extremely well.
Murphy has (fingers crossed...) established that he is playable at 2B, so that's really nice. Although I agree that he is not a key piece, that's still gotta go in the plus column. Parnell at least pulled out of his death spiral, although I'm not a big fan. I think Thole and Niese have treaded water. It would have been nice if they had taken a step forward (especially the latter, which I honestly was expecting), but their performance doesn't worry me either. I think a lefty-hitting catcher with OBP skills won't have trouble keeping a job.
Ike does make me nervous. I wouldn't sweat it much if he got off to a horrendous start and then hit like we expected in the remainder of the season. That hasn't happened. I suppose there's still time.
In sum, I think the Mets have "players to build on" in an abstract sense, but the roster doesn't necessarily gel: there's a scary lack of power hitting, and the OF is a disaster area. The need for continual forward progress is part of why I'd like Duda called back up. If we can establish him as a quality young #5 type hitter, I think what we can then get for him will likely help more than playing these other OF options. Valdespin "looks like a player" in a scouting sense, but I don't think he is, really. Kirk is a marginal starting OF/good 4th OF, and I don't think we particularly need to play him any more to establish that. It seems like the D-Backs only dangle Justin Upton for kicks, but I'd trade most of the team to get him...
Obviously, good things can happen. At least, it's a theoretical possibility (through there's no real evidence in the past 5 years that good things can in fact happen for the Mets). If a couple guys hit their 90% projection next year, things look a lot differently. But if you just assume that everybody stays in the 30 - 70% range, the near future doesn't look so great.
The improvement will have to come in 2014 after they shed Santana and Bay and they have more than $2 to spend in the offseason. I hope Alderson is still around for that.
The list of FA outfielders this offseason is fairly depressing. BJ Upton would be my top choice but only if he's cheap. Melky Cabrera will be horribly overpaid, Bourn is a leadoff guy, I hate Victorino and Delmon Young would be the worst signing ever.
Thole hasn't done much, Duda faltered, and Davis has been a disaster. Nevertheless the Mets have a very strong offense. They rank 6th in the league in R/G, despite Citifield, good for a 3rd in OPS+. Part of the run-scoring is boosted by the fact that the team has been weirdly clutch, and the OPS is boosted by great seasons from itinerant bench veterans like Hairston and Cedeno, but it just goes to show that if you can assemble a team without many holes it doesn't take much to score runs. Tejada and Murphy are both 3rd in the league in oWAR at their positions, which is nothing to sniff at. I think the infield will remain set for 2013, and if they can find some real outfielders, this offense can be in the top half of the league once again.
The bullpen has been outlandishly horrible, and this is the main reason that the team has done poorly. But I think we can all agree that bullpens are the least predictable part of a team - no reason the team is condemned to bullpen hell for the foreseeable future. Maybe next year Familia and Edgin are throwing lights out.
It's a shame that the team doesn't have more top talent among position prospects, but, we knew that this was the case before the year started.
on edit > cokes to other ahead of me that made the same points, and, I echo that Wright's return to stardom is probably the year's single most important development, and a heck of a lot better news than anything that could have plausibly gone on in the minors.
Given that, I don't see an easy OF answer either. I really think you have to try to make a big trade, which with the Mets' financial and prospect resources, should be doable. I know Justin Upton might not be available, and I know the team hasn't made a big trade in a while in general, but I promise you, it can happen ;)
You just know that sometime in mid-December, we're all going to be talking ourselves into a Delmon Young signing, right? Was very good in 2010. Coming into his age-27 season. Coming to the NL. It could work.
Justin Upton would really be a lovely addition, wouldn’t he?
Sidenote: If Bell isn’t a fat POS, I would jump at the proposed BBB challenge trade.
Who would you want to target? I think the guy needs to be an everyday player (not a lefty with platoon splits) and be able to play RF.
The Mets already have a first-division offense.
Niese is fine. His ERA has barely budged since the All-Star break, and he's thrown 6+ innings every time. Gee has become a physical uncertainty, but only after proving, for the first time in his life, that he has the talent to be a good MLB starter.
These points are in direct contradiction of each other. When Bay and Santana clear off the payroll the Mets have virtually no long term payroll obligations (Niese has the only guaranteed contract), and it will be very easy to spend money on Wright and Dickey, even in the post-Madoff world. And Dickey won't cost that much, because he'll be 40 goddam years old.
What would you do with him? I'm glad the Mets have stuck with him, as frustrating as it's been. I think they were right to identify Davis, and not Duda, as the future of the position.
Doesn't it seem like Delmon Young should be closer to 47 than 27?
He wasn't though, he was a good but hardly spectacular offensive player with negative defensive and baserunning value. He'd barely be worth starting if he had that season every year and in reality he's got to be one of the worst players to have been given 2500+ PAs over the last six years.
Edit: Did a PI search on lowest WARS for players with 2500+ PAs over the last six years. I don't have a subscription and can't see the top names but going by the WAR totals it looks like Young is second on the list at -0.0. Figuring out the worst player, at a stunning -4.5, was as easy as typing "Yuniesky Betancourt" into the search box and scrolling down his page.
Murphy: 3.2 fWAR in 2011, projected 2.2 fWAR in 2012. I think if these #'s are to be believed -- and Murphy passes my eye test as "subpar but certainly passable fielder" -- then we've got a piece. He's got 1500+ PA's in the majors at .295/.344/.437, so I'm willing to count on Murphy. He's 27.
Thole: 0.9 fWAR in 2011, projected 1.7 fWAR this year. Fangraphs loves Thole's defense this season. He's really regressed at the plate, though, so I'm not sue about him. He's .272/.342/.347 in almost 1000 PA's, so that's probably what we are looking at, if not a tick worse. Fun fact, his BABIP has been 305, 300, and 305 the last three years. He's 26.
Davis: 1.4 fWAR in 2011 (36 games), projected 0.2 fWAR this year. Eesh. He's been better recently, but he hasn't been the Ike that people were expecting. His last two months (51 games) he's hit .266/.322/.576. I never expected him to hit for average in the majors (look at that hitch in his swing!!) but I could live with an 800-850 OPS. Just as troubling, fangraphs is down on his fielding this year.
Generally, I agree with #4. Not a lot to love here. The pitching should come along and help, and the offense should remain capable, but there isn't just to project.
Agreed. Davis is 25, plays at least to my eye what appears to be a good first base, and has a career 112 OPS+. He'll be arb eligible this year for the first time. Since June 1 he's hit for an 840 OPS. You of course can't just wave away the first 2 months of the season, but maybe he should get some slack because played his last game of 2011 in May, and had to deal with the hay fever in the spring of this year. There was probably a time when the guy was overrated; I remember some talk in 2010 when Heyward was killing it and Strasburg coming up that there was a lot of great rookies in the NL East and Ike was the Mets version of that and I thought that was overblown.
But I think he's still gonna be a pretty solid player next year. Likely not a star since you need to be an awesome hitter at first base to be a star, but I do think the Mets were right to stick with him over Duda.
The Mets definitely need to find some bats in this off-season, or at some point if they want to compete any time soon. They do have some really promising young arms though.
Seems about right to leave out Tejada from a list of players' numbers to prove we are going to suck. ;-)
(I know we're not going to get any of those guys for Jeremy Hafner, but I'm suggesting a "big" trade where we give up significant players.)
Maybe get a current infielder like Chase Utley or Hanley Ramirez and move him to OF where he probably should be anyway. Bring in a Matt LaPorta or something, see if a guy whom you can probably get for a song and who tears up the minors every time he goes down there will finally hit for you. (Travis Snider would have been good. J.D. Martinez has played badly enough that even the rebuilding Astros might no longer be interested.)
Get creative! Options need to be explored beyond signing free agents, sitting on kids, and trading guys two months before their contracts are up. (If you could get a Zack Wheeler in each of those trades, maybe you could get by on that, but that ain't gonna happen, sadly.)
It has been mild ever since...
They also have to either sign Wright to a massive contract or replace his production in other ways after 2013.
Of course they should sign him, if for no other reason to write Kranepool out of the Mets record book.
Allow me to suggest not fixing the pen. Or at least not trying especially hard to fix the pen. The Mets used their last two pennies to try to fix the pen this past offseason. It failed miserably. Relievers are nothing if not unpredictable. Break in Mejia and Familia as relievers (and eventually give them a chance to start if it seems warranted), add them to the existing group and hope chance is on our side.
I hope they at least fire Warthen off that human cannonball they used in London. And take away the net.
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