Seems like he needs the Weaver-Dalkowski “throw the ball over the white thing” treatment. (And has for five years. Hello?)
In five major-league seasons, [Mike Pelfrey] has attempted to utilize a curveball, a changeup, a slider and a splitter. None have proved useful…
After Pelfrey failed to build on a 15-win campaign in 2010, the Mets must consider how much he is worth. It appears likely they will tender him a contract, which figures to include a raise to around $5 million to $6 million. General manager Sandy Alderson has said recently that the 2012 pitching rotation should resemble this year’s group…
In 190 2/3 innings this season, Pelfrey has induced a swinging strike on just 5.5 percent of his pitches. Only two other qualified starters, The Detroit Tigers’ Brad Penny and Yankees’ revelation Bartolo Colon, have a lower rate of whiffs this season. Hitters can foul off Pelfrey’s fastball until they find one worth punishing.
The trouble is that Pelfrey never developed an offspeed choice that is big-league caliber. His fastball was dominant at Wichita State, and he was talented enough to be the ninth overall player selected in the 2005 draft. The Mets hurried him to the big leagues in 2006, before his arsenal was mature… In college, he threw from a three-quarters-arm angle, which created a hellacious break on his sinker. In the majors, his arm angle has gently moved back over the top, which Pelfrey believes is necessary to properly spin a breaking ball.
The problem is that now he’s stuck between the two worlds. His sinker no longer dives downward — now it just drifts on the same vertical plane. And his secondary pitches remain second-class.
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1. Banta Posted: September 25, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#3935921)This. I've moderated my views on the whole "rushing" issue, in consideration of the argument some of my fellow Mets' fans have made that sometimes a player can & does respond well to being challenged and learning from the experience.
But the downside example/risk is Mike Pelfrey. There are some players -- and pitchers are probably more at risk of this than hitters, on average -- with whom you simply need to be patient, because the development they need to do can only be done successfully outside the pressure of winning games at the major league level. And you couldn't find a stronger example of the type than Mike Pelfrey: a pitcher with one plus-pitch who can probably use that asset to be moderately successful right away, but who desperately needs to develop a secondary pitch to complement his arsenal if he's going to have any chance of long-term success. If he's in the minors, he can spend those innings working on that pitch, throwing it and throwing it and throwing it some more, even if he's getting pounded. If you rush him to the majors, no chance. Those were precious innings, which Pelfrey would never get back.
Would he have benefited from them? We'll never know. Maybe he was doomed never to have the secondary pitch that would have made him the # 2 starter we all hoped he might be. But the Mets absolutely did not maximize his chances of getting there. Pelfrey will never be much better, overall, than he is right now. He might have another OK season or two, better than he was this year. But only within the range of ability he's already shown. His own limits are obvious, but we'll never know if they were inevitable.
BUT, that's only when you take as a given what the Mets in 2007 started the season with. As always w Minaya, the team was badly put together, and it's not surprising the club missed the playoffs in part because in Pelfrey they threw a less than stellar young guy into the rotation where he went 3-8 with an ERA around 5.50.
But I understand why he was called up when he was. In 2006 Pelfrey was one of the best prospects in baseball, having blown through the minors with great K rates. It was known that his breaking pitches were very weak, but you're asking for a lot of discipline to hold him back at that stage. He was getting hitters out, easily. In July 2006 Pelfrey honestly looked like he might have been (and probably was) one of the best pitchers on the team. I remember predicting that he would be our John Lackey that year. Let us not forget that this was the year that saw Oliver Perez and his 6.55 ERA starting Game 7 of the NLCS - the idea that one-pitch Pelfrey could have contributed to the effort is not far-fetched, and in such situations you obviously worry about his career development later.
In 2007? I'm not really sure. Again, it looked like he was one of the best pitchers in the organization. He was the 5th starter. Typically I would say that if your prospect is good enough to play his way onto the roster, that's where he belongs. But I concede that Pelfrey in 2007 may have been one of those unusual cases where, despite strong results in the minors, he was not ready.
I kind of doubt that Pelfrey ever would have figured out that other pitch, even if he was handled differently. He still has offseasons and springs and blowouts to work on his secondary pitches. His fastball isn't what it used to be. He's weird - he had that whole episode with the mouth guard, because he was tipping his pitches with his outstretched tongue. When I hear him talk about trying new things, it reminds me of the yearly theories on why Rey Ordonez would learn how to hit (this year he's using a lighter bat, this year he's hitting the ball into the ground, etc).
I will say that I'm surprised at how consistent his component stats have been since 2008 - he seemed pretty useless this year but I suppose he very well might bounce back to 15 wins and 3.50 ERA next year.
Sort of the obvious conclusion.
I kind of agree.
Including the word "revelation" there seems very random. Is that meant to be a subtle dig at the Mets or something?
Sigh he had one pitch now he has none
He should go back to his college motion and head to the pen
I was at Pelfrey's first start in 2006, and while I'm pretty sure this isn't the case, I couldn't help but get the feeling that yesterday, I was at his last start as a Met. My only caveat would be that I think a change of scenery and a new pitching coach could work wonders. Pelfrey is exactly the kind of guy Dave Duncan yanks great years out of, and he's still young enough to progress quite a bit.
A 99-MPH fastball and one of the best sliders in all of history is a far cry from a 91-MPH sinker and a 94-MPH four-seamer.
Pelfrey is kind of amazing, and really absurdly consistent. His K rate the last 4 years: 4.93, 5.22, 4.99, 4.88. His walk rate: 2.87, 3.22, 3.00, 3.02.
His BABIP #'s are actually incredible. The last 4 years its 302, 311, 301, 300. How is that even possible? The only thing that fluctuates a little is the HR per flyball rate. When it's 6%, he has a 3.75 ERA, when it's 9%, he has a 4.85 ERA.
Reading on Metsblog, every now and then people still mention how "talented" Pelfrey is and how they're waiting for the breakthrough. I really don't see all this talent. He's got a pretty good sinker, but that's it. No real breaking pitch to speak of.
If the Mets had a regular Mets payroll, say $130-140 million next year, then bringing Pelfrey back is a no brainer. $5 million or so to a guy who if nothing else, is likely to give you 190-200 innings is an easy call. Even with the reduced payroll, they still bring him back I'm thinking, but it's far from a lock. I'm a guy who puts a lot of stock in durability from starters, after seeing the types of guys the Mets had to resort to in 06 and 07, even 34 starts of below average pitchign can have value in that it keeps you away from The Geremi Gonzalez and Jose Lima's of the world.
One thing Sandy mentioned about the starters this year; they were pretty durable. They got 148 starts out of their top 5 (at least in terms of starts) this year, and they m ay end up at 150. (Capuano looks to be scheduled to go Tuesday, not sure who pitches Wed.) Seems pretty good. Which almost worries me, because what are the odds that happens next year as well?
Don't worry. The non-Dickey guys all clocked in at around 80 ERA+. I think Citifield and the league-wide offensive downturn hide how bad these guys were. That's the type of performance that, in years past, got us raging at the Tim Reddings and Livan Hernandezes, and has been surpassed by guys like Jorge Sosa and Figueroa. Next year's rotation could surpass 2011's quality even if it has all sorts of injury problems.
At least according to the article, that's because he's changed his motion on it because he's been trying to add a crappy third pitch.
That's a pretty good point. You look at Dillon Gee with a 4.43 ERA, and I think to myself it isn't all that bad, but like you point out, it's an 84 ERA+.
Man, Pelfrey had a 78, Gee and Niese both 84, and Capuano 82. Though in 06, just as a reference, Lima had a 45, Gonzalez a 58, Ollie Perez a 69, Alay Soler a 73, Victor Zambrano a 66, Dave Williams a 79. In 07 Lawrence had a 64, Chan Ho Park a 30, Dave Williams a 20, Humber a 59, Jason Vargas a 37 (those guys combined to make like 5 starts, so not a huge deal, except we missed the playoffs by one game), Pelfrey a 78.
But your point is pretty much taken. I am hopeful that Niese can get his ERA closer to the xFIP of 3.27 next year, and Capuano, if he comes back, closer to the 3.74 FIP. (I never would've believed this, but Niese would've been 10th in the NL in xFIP if he had enough innings, he fell short by like 4). But yeah, even if they do have more injuries, you are right it's likely the guys won't be THAT much worse than what we got this year.
His K/9 severely dropped off between AA and AAA. He honestly may have lost it when he was 22. I can also easily believe that he was a bit overrated due to his size.
This is another great argument for making him a reliever. Just saying. /shrug. I've seen Pelfrey maybe 2 times, but an 80 ERA+, whether it comes in 200 innings or 20, is not adding anything to your team.
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