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Monday, February 05, 2018

Mets pull Todd Frazier out of free agency for $17M

The Mets agreed to a deal with the veteran Frazier on Monday night for two years and $17 million, The Post’s Mike Puma confirmed. Frazier played the end of last season in The Bronx, after the Yankees acquired him in a multi-player trade with the White Sox.

The Yankees and Mets had each expressed interest in Frazier this offseason, with depth needed at the third-base position. The addition of Frazier means the Mets can play Asdrubal Cabrera at second, the position he recently told The Post’s Kevin Kernan he prefers.

Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 05, 2018 at 09:57 PM | 189 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, todd frazier

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:42 AM (#5620182)
I'll repeat, absolute steal for the Mets. Zips projects him at 3.4 WAR and they're paying him for 1.
   2. dejarouehg Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:48 AM (#5620185)
I'll repeat, absolute steal for the Mets. Zips projects him at 3.4 WAR and they're paying him for 1.


I don't know about the WAR component, but I love this move for him. Dreaded watching Cabrera play third and I enjoy watching players - especially Frazier - who seem to get it! They have a great job, are fortunate to be blessed with the winning athletic Powerball ticket, and truly appreciate it......and genuinely love playing baseball. (If only Anthony Rendon felt that way.)
   3. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:50 AM (#5620186)
This is a good deal, and it's bizarre that he was that cheap.
   4. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:55 AM (#5620187)
Excellent signing. Shame for Frazier, as a late bloomer, that his one real chance for free agent $$ ends up this way.
   5. salvomania Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:02 AM (#5620188)
And the dominos begin to fall....
   6. salvomania Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:03 AM (#5620189)
Shame for Frazier, as a late bloomer, that his one real chance for free agent $$ ends up this way.

I know, I really feel for him. $17M is a kick in the balls.
   7. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:07 AM (#5620190)
I am unprepared emotionally for this sort of good news.
   8. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:33 AM (#5620198)

I know, I really feel for him. $17M is a kick in the balls.


After tax and agent fees, its not that much when your career is over in your mid 30s, particularly for a New Yorker.
   9. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:34 AM (#5620199)
This is a good deal, and it's bizarre that he was that cheap.


Get ready to say that 30 or 40 more times in the next month.

Shame for Frazier, as a late bloomer, that his one real chance for free agent $$ ends up this way.


Agreed. Of course it'd be typical if he was a pitcher, good chance of ending up with career-destroying injuries before ever reaching free agency.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:42 AM (#5620203)

After tax and agent fees, its not that much when your career is over in your mid 30s, particularly for a New Yorker.


Well, he's made $25M before this deal. So, $42M in lifetime earnings so far. Almost certain to be over $50M before he retires.

I'm not crying for him. He's set for life, unless he's a fool, and he seems like he's got his head on straight. He'll have to fly business class instead of private jet.
   11. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:56 AM (#5620209)
Was apparently adamant about going to a hometown (NYC) team. Jersey boy and all.
   12. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5620214)
He'll have to fly business class instead of private jet.

Pretty sure that amount of lifetime earnings would make 1st class not that difficult.
   13. BDC Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5620217)
I assumed the headline meant 1/17.
   14. Worrierking Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5620220)
This is definitely a good deal for the Mets money-wise, but why wouldn't you just stick Wilmer Flores at third and let him play?
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:07 AM (#5620222)
This is definitely a good deal for the Mets money-wise, but why wouldn't you just stick Wilmer Flores at third and let him play?

Because Frazier is much, much better, and they want to compete for the WC. If Flores hits, he'll get plenty of PT at 2B and 1B. Flores still has never shown he can hit RHP.
   16. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:16 AM (#5620228)
Flores did have a higher OPS (.765 vs .736) than Frazier against righties last year although Frazier was probably the better hitter considering his OBP was better (.348 for Frazier versus .306 for Flores).

Flores is still young enough that he could be getting better against righties but it is obvious that the team doesn't view him as an everyday player, rightly or wrongly. They have never been excited to give him an everyday job.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5620234)
Flores did have a higher OPS (.765 vs .736) than Frazier against righties last year although Frazier was probably the better hitter considering his OBP was better (.348 for Frazier versus .306 for Flores).

By wRC+ they were exactly equal vs. RHP at 101. Frazier's splits were 101/130 (vs RHP/vs LHP), while Flore was 101/119.

But, that split was right in line with Frazier's career (107/124), while it was the best performance Flores ever had vs. RHP. His career split is 87/123.

Add to that, the stats show that Frazier is a fine 3B (+5 to +10) at 3B, while Flores looks quite poor (small sample) at around -5 to -10. Frazier is a slam dunk at 3B.

Flores D looks a lot better at 2B and 1B.
   18. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5620241)
I like it! I like it!
   19. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5620251)
Lassus, you cracked me up in #7. This is an uncharacteristically great move by the Mets.
   20. DaVoice of DaPeople Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5620255)
Sad news for Frazier—I feel like Moustakas could easily sign for 3 times as much, and I’m not certain he’s any better than Frazier.
   21. Greg Pope Posted: February 06, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5620256)
Pretty sure that amount of lifetime earnings would make 1st class not that difficult.

First class doesn't really exist any more. It's now called business class. At least on United. Some planes have something higher than business class, but even that isn't called first class. On United it's called Polaris.
   22. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:02 AM (#5620263)
Sad news for Frazier

I also don't feel sorry for the woman in NH who won $564M in Powerball but won't turn in the ticket and claim her prize for want of anonymity.

And thanks, Edmundo.
   23. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5620265)
Happy for Frazier that he doesn't have to worry about money for the rest of his life. Sad for Frazier that he's going from the penthouse of ballclubs to the outhouse of the flophouse. And happy for the Yankees that they're further committing to making themselves younger at key positions.
   24. Ziggy's screen name Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5620267)
I also don't feel sorry for the woman in NH who won $564M in Powerball but won't turn in the ticket and claim her prize for want of anonymity.


My wife's reaction to that was "go get the money already"; but I'm not so sure. I might prefer to be not-rich and anonymous than rich and go through what lottery winners go through.
   25. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5620271)

My wife's reaction to that was "go get the money already"; but I'm not so sure. I might prefer to be not-rich and anonymous than rich and go through what lottery winners go through.

On the one hand that woman presumably knew what she was getting into when she bought the ticket. OTOH that's an incredibly stupid and unthinking rule, given the sad history of what's happened to other lottery winners through no fault of their own.
   26. dlf Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5620276)
First class doesn't really exist any more. It's now called business class. At least on United. Some planes have something higher than business class, but even that isn't called first class. On United it's called Polaris.


On domestic flights, there is no distinction between business and first class (regardless of names) but international travel is different. About 3 years ago, I was bumped up from business class to first on Air France going between Paris and Bangalore and the luxury was amazing. Business had lay flat seats, decent food, and good wine; first was a small private cabin, cooked to order food, and a real bed.

...

I like the Frazier move for the Mets. Good fielding 3B who can hit homers and is getting roughly league average pay.
   27. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5620290)
My wife's reaction to that was "go get the money already"; but I'm not so sure. I might prefer to be not-rich and anonymous than rich and go through what lottery winners go through.

Not to get all OTP, but no. I consider myself up to the challenge, and would be happy for the test to my character and fortitude.
   28. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5620294)
Sad for Frazier that he's going from the penthouse of ballclubs to the outhouse of the flophouse.


Hey!
   29. formerly dp Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5620302)
Flores/Frazier: I was of the opinion that they should hand 3b to Flores (I know numbers say he isn't great there, but that was his best position coming up and they've jerked him around the infield since). Haven't really trusted him at 2B. But 1) that wasn't what the Mets were going to do *before* they signed Frazier, and 2) at this cost, Frazier is an absolute no-brainer. I'd still put money on them being roughly even with the bat in a full season, but now they have both. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of their infielders moved before the season starts--they've now got Reyes, Flores, and Cabrera at 2B, with Rivera back at some point, and Gonzalez/Smith at 1B. Not an excess of depth, but could understand the thinking that Flores, with his $3m salary, is a luxury they don't want to afford.
   30. Blastin Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:49 AM (#5620305)
Not to get all OTP, but no. I consider myself up to the challenge, and would be happy for the test to my character and fortitude.


Yeah, I know enough people who are trustworthy financial people to not have those awful results. Please give me the 500 million.
   31. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5620307)
I'll repeat, absolute steal for the Mets. Zips projects him at 3.4 WAR and they're paying him for 1.


I don't think all wins above replacement are valued the same. There's boatloads of 1 WAR players - sign 25 of them and you have the Reds record. At 8 million per WAR that's a $200 million payroll.

The way I look at it, the first WAR is worth 2-3 million, the second WAR is worth an additional 3-4 million, the third WAR is worth an additional 7-8 million, etc.

So the Mets are paying Frazier at about a 2 WAR level which is quite a bargain as he's been about a 3 WAR player. I think being in the NL East will help him.

   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5620317)
I don't think all wins above replacement are valued the same. There's boatloads of 1 WAR players - sign 25 of them and you have the Reds record. At 8 million per WAR that's a $200 million payroll.

The way I look at it, the first WAR is worth 2-3 million, the second WAR is worth an additional 3-4 million, the third WAR is worth an additional 7-8 million, etc.

So the Mets are paying Frazier at about a 2 WAR level which is quite a bargain as he's been about a 3 WAR player. I think being in the NL East will help him.


That makes a lot of sense, but then we see teams paying 1 WAR relievers $7-9M p.a.

Todd Frazier signed the same deal as Juan Nicasio. Nicasio has put up 2.8 WAR in the last 3 years. Frazier has put up 10.8.
   33. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:01 PM (#5620318)
My wife's reaction to that was "go get the money already"; but I'm not so sure. I might prefer to be not-rich and anonymous than rich and go through what lottery winners go through.
In Massachusetts at least you can set up a trust for the money, and then send a representative of the trust (i.e., a lawyer from a firm that handles these sorts of things) to collect the winnings for transfer to the trust. If you're planning on winning the lottery, you should do it in a place like Massachusetts.
   34. SoSH U at work Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5620324)
In Massachusetts at least you can set up a trust for the money, and then send a representative of the trust (i.e., a lawyer from a firm that handles these sorts of things) to collect the winnings for transfer to the trust. If you're planning on winning the lottery, you should do it in a place like Massachusetts.


And if you're not planning to win the lottery, as I am, you should really avoid buying the lottery ticket in the first place.

   35. Nasty Nate Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5620325)
There's boatloads of 1 WAR players - sign 25 of them and you have the Reds record.
I don't disagree with your point, but a pitching staff that produced 1 WAR each would look like the '93 Braves compared to the Reds' pitching staff last year.
   36. Conor Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5620328)
I think Flores's arm is a little shaky at third base, I think he's better suited at second.

I'm all in on this signing. There will be plenty of PA for Flores anyway.
   37. bunyon Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5620330)
She evidently could have done that but had already done too much of the paperwork before thinking of it.

Plan to win, people.

(I know this because I had the thought of tracking her down and offering $10 million for the ticket. But it's now too late. Given what she has signed, she has to collect it herself and publicly).

Edit: Cokes
   38. bunyon Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5620333)
It's a great signing. So, what sort of terrible fluke injury do we anticipate for Mr. Frazier?
   39. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5620335)
So what if Frazier demands to hear "New York, New York" as one of his Sinatra walkup songs? Would the Mets allow it?
   40. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5620336)
So what if Frazier demands to hear "New York, New York" as one of his Sinatra walkup songs? Would the Mets allow it?


Sure. The question is, would the Yankees?
   41. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5620339)
So, what sort of terrible fluke injury do we anticipate for Mr. Frazier?

Brain cloud.
   42. catomi01 Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5620350)
Not to get all OTP, but no. I consider myself up to the challenge, and would be happy for the test to my character and fortitude.


This - go put a couple of million away and forget it exists so that even if you go MC Hammer on the rest of it, there is something to fall back on, and I'll take my chances with the rest.
   43. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5620352)
So, what sort of terrible fluke injury do we anticipate for Mr. Frazier?


Inverted Penis
   44. catomi01 Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5620355)
and to add - I think we should make it a requirement that if any primate wins powerball, they are responsible for sponsoring the annual softball game (including post-game activities).
   45. DaVoice of DaPeople Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5620356)
So, what sort of terrible fluke injury do we anticipate for Mr. Frazier?

Kuru.
   46. Blastin Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:51 PM (#5620362)
I'm also coming around more on Andujar being a bit of a masher. I think he'll be good.

   47. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5620368)
and to add - I think we should make it a requirement that if any primate wins powerball, they are responsible for sponsoring the annual softball game (including post-game activities).


That is a brilliant suggestion. Since I'm of advanced age, I would only want a few million for my wife and me, something nice in a trust fund for our 2 kids, give our siblings enough to make a difference in their lives and give the rest away in a couple of lumps, to actually make a difference. I don't want to be saying no a dozen times a day, because the legit and non legit do gooders will be banging on the virtual and physical doors requesting money. And I have never wanted a posse and don't want to start now.

And let's face it, strip clubs are creepy.
   48. The Duke Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5620372)
I’d be willing to get kicked in the balls in exchange for a bag with $17 million greenbacks and happily pay the agent and the govt their share too. And he gets to play Major League Baseball, his pick of the babes, sign autographs, and sleep until noon. And drunk golfing with Matt Harvey instead of practice !

Where do I sign up?
   49. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5620373)
I think we should make it a requirement that if any primate wins powerball, they are responsible for sponsoring the annual softball game (including post-game activities).

I'm going to require that all of you sign NDAs and possibly attend the game with your attorneys.
   50. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5620374)
I’d be willing to get kicked in the balls in exchange for a bag with $17 million greenbacks and happily pay the agent and the govt their share too. And he gets to play Major League Baseball, his pick of the babes, sign autographs, and sleep until noon. And drunk golfing with Matt Harvey instead of practice !

Where do I sign up?


The catch is that you get paid in bitcoins.
   51. catomi01 Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:11 PM (#5620384)
I'm going to require that all of you sign NDAs and possibly attend the game with your attorneys.


Liability waivers would probably be a good idea too.
   52. PreservedFish Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5620423)
There is a tremendous Reddit comment on what to do if you win the lottery link
   53. reech Posted: February 06, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5620494)
this person has the right idea.

oops- coke to Lassus
   54. bunyon Posted: February 06, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5620513)
My plan is to do announce, and stick to, the policy that I say NO to any request ranging from strangers to my mother. If you ask for money, you never get any. If you've been a part of my life or are a positive contributor to society (as judged by me) you'll get loads.
   55. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5620525)
I never said no to the frequent requests your mother made.
   56. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5620568)
Well, he's made $25M before this deal. So, $42M in lifetime earnings so far. Almost certain to be over $50M before he retires.

I'm not crying for him. He's set for life, unless he's a fool, and he seems like he's got his head on straight. He'll have to fly business class instead of private jet.


I simply don't agree. For a guy who reached the pinnacle of a valuable profession, those are #### earnings. What a remarkable ####-up by his union. My guess is he'll have about $15 million in cash to live on for the next 50 years which is obviously enough to be comfortable but is not even business class flying. That just sucks. I'm sure it's not what he had in mind when he made the all-star team.
   57. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5620575)
I simply don't agree. For a guy who reached the pinnacle of a valuable profession, those are #### earnings. What a remarkable ####-up by his union. My guess is he'll have about $15 million in cash to live on for the next 50 years which is obviously enough to be comfortable but is not even business class flying. That just sucks. I'm sure it's not what he had in mind when he made the all-star team.

Honestly what on earth. In addition to MANY MILLION DOLLARS he'll also have a 6 figure pension, free health care for life, and is Certified Gritty and will therefore have some broadcasting income. I think he'll be able to sit in rows 1-10 with his spouse and/or mistress on a domestic flight if he so chooses.
   58. Lassus Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5620576)
For a guy who reached the pinnacle of a valuable profession, those are #### earnings.

Nah.


What a remarkable ####-up by his union.

However, this can certainly be true and I don't have a problem agreeing.
   59. PreservedFish Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5620577)
They say happiness peaks at $80k per year.
   60. Stormy JE Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5620579)
I am unprepared emotionally for this sort of good news.
Best birthday present ever, Lassus?
   61. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5620580)
My guess is he'll have about $15 million in cash to live on for the next 50 years which is obviously enough to be comfortable but is not even business class flying. That just sucks.

That's a $500K a year income without touching principal. You're deranged.
   62. Walt Davis Posted: February 06, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5620584)
Lottery -- it is reasonable to have a rule that the winner is made public to protect the integrity of the contest (i.e. convince the public it's not rigged). I understand the woman's concerns but even if she could collect it anonymously, the media would track her down. Plus now she can afford rabid dogs that shoot bees out of their mouth to keep the press and interlopers away.

On Frazier ... well, this is the guy who just won a puny state lotto when he coulda been playing powerball instead. At this price, seems to me the Yanks should have taken him back -- just too good to pass up at this price, kinda like how the Cubs grabbed Fowler back for 2016. Even with kids on the way it's not like injuries, suckitude, DH and regular rest aren't gonna provide plenty of PT for a guy of Frazier's quality.

Heck at this price, I might have been OK with the Cubs grabbing him and moving Bryant to RF.

#31 ... Snapper already pointed to relievers. But there is some truth that the solid bench player/borderline starter/whatever type is sometimes underpaid on the FA market. A good 1 WAR middle IF probably only pulls down about $5 M these days. Somehow Jay Bruce managed to score 3/$39, but Austin Jackson just got 2/$6 (with incentives that could push it to $8.5). He's nothing special but over the last 4 seasons, about 400 PA a year, 5.2 WAR, -0.7 WAA is good bench production and "should" be paid at about $8-10 per year ... or surely at least $6 if we think the team needs a discount for age/injury collapse risk.

But my issue is your analogy. Of course $/WAR averaged across all classes of player is nowhere near $8 M. The average salary is now about $4 so an average team is producing about 33 WAR (35 ... where is replacement these days?) for about $100 M so overall $/WAR is probably around $3 M. And if every player was paid market rate, your extreme example would be relevant ... and Fraizer would still be slightly underpaid for his 3+ WAR! But, as you likely know, the average $/WAR is a mix of WAR from super-cheap pre-arb players, cheap arb players and expensive FAs. But when it comes to improving your team for the coming season, you generally can't acquire the super-cheap or cheap players (at least not for just money) so improving a team requires going on the FA market where the $/WAR probably is around $8.

So sure, no team except maybe the Yanks can possibly afford to build a winner at $8/WAR. But nobody, except maybe the post-dynasty Yanks, needs to or tries to do that. The problem for the Reds is that they need to add at least 13 wins of talent to put themselves into contention for 2018 and they don't have enough kids arriving/improving this year to do that. Those 13 wins on the FA market probably would cost them about $100-$110 M which, per b-r, would drive 2018 payroll to $200 M. So the Reds are still screwed in the short term but, somewhat more realistically, at least they can get to 500 on a $200 M payroll.

Or to put it another way, they will probably get about 25 WAR for their $100 M -- not great but still just half of $8/WAR. That's "thanks" to a roster that features only 4 players with 6+ years service time. Things could be a lot better if they weren't spending 1/3 of that payroll on Homer Bailey and Devin Mesoraco who have combined for -3 WAR over the last 3 years. There's a potential 5 win improvement if they could dump those two and replace them with 4 WAR from the FA market. Things would of course be a lot worse if they weren't getting 6-7 WAR out of Votto for the (currently) bargain price of $20 M a year.

Note how that almost magically works out. They'll get about 5-7 WAR total out of Votto, Bailey and Mesoraco for about $55 M. If they get all 7, that works out to $8/WAR. Their 4th guy with 6+ years is David Hernandez who they signed for 2/$5. He's been a durable and thoroughly mediocre reliever for many years, averaging about .6 WAR per full relief season so in theory he's a small bargain. Note he made $4 M in his final arb year last year so this is a pay cut for him.
   63. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5620601)
They say happiness peaks at $80k per year.


Plateaus, not peaks.
   64. Walt Davis Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5620606)
I'll add that Jackson and Hernandez are the kinds of guy who likely are most hurt by the warped salary structure of MLB. 400 PA of mostly lefty-bashing 4th OF with maybe still non-embarrassing CF back-up ability. There are guys in the minors who fit fairly similar profiles ... or at least could give you either the lefty-mashing PAs or better defense including quality CF. (Jackson's not really that much of a lefty-masher for his career but wailed on them last year.)

Similarly Hernandez adds little over a selection of minor-league arms except a greater certainty that he won't totally suck and can stay healthy. So teams would prefer Jackson for 4th OF and Hernandez as #5 reliever but teams can also probably get (on average) about half their production for the minimum salary. Jackson seems to be taking the job of Gorkys Hernandez who, somewhat amazingly, still isn't arb-eligible -- Gorkys has been replacement level but still one imagines a negotiation of "my client wants 2/$10," "at that price, we'll stick with Gorkys; how about 2/$6?", "how about 2/$8?", "how about 2/$6 with incentives to 2/$8?" ... and every team has a Gorkys.
   65. PreservedFish Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5620607)
A plateau is a kind of peak? But yeah. You’re right.
   66. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5620611)
That's a $500K a year income without touching principal. You're deranged.


That is not REMOTELY enough to live a flying-business-class lifestyle in NYC metro. That's less than $400K a year PRETAX income (and you will be paying tax on that no matter how you play it b/c of the AMT), once you take out the down payment for a nice house. I mean, reasonable people can disagree on how much money you need to be rich, but I don't think anyone would be calling $400K pre tax 'rich' in NYC.

If you're Todd Frazier, and you ####### make it, you're an all star, you definitely don't expect to be an average joe in Short Hills.
   67. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5620622)
That is not REMOTELY enough to live a flying-business-class lifestyle in NYC metro. That's less than $400K a year PRETAX income (and you will be paying tax on that no matter how you play it b/c of the AMT), once you take out the down payment for a nice house. I mean, reasonable people can disagree on how much money you need to be rich, but I don't think anyone would be calling $400K pre tax 'rich' in NYC.

If you're Todd Frazier, and you ####### make it, you're an all star, you definitely don't expect to be an average joe in Short Hills.


He already owns nice houses. $500K a year is very well off, even in NYC. And since none of it is earned income, it can br structured so ha pays <20% average taxes (muni-bonds, life-insurance, capital gains, etc.)

And to have that without having to work? It's flat out rich. He almost certainly can earn another several hundred thousand a year in retirement doing broadcasting, or other "ex-jock" work.
   68. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5620623)
That is not REMOTELY enough to live a flying-business-class lifestyle in NYC metro. That's less than $400K a year PRETAX income (and you will be paying tax on that no matter how you play it b/c of the AMT), once you take out the down payment for a nice house. I mean, reasonable people can disagree on how much money you need to be rich, but I don't think anyone would be calling $400K pre tax 'rich' in NYC.

If you're Todd Frazier, and you ####### make it, you're an all star, you definitely don't expect to be an average joe in Short Hills.

When you go on these semi-regular rants I can't really tell if you're joking? Anyway that's in like the 95th or something percentile for household income in Manhattan. And you're also ignoring the 6 figure pension and lifetime MLB health plan and the fact that he will be a former all star baseball player with ongoing earning potential.

If you do not define the top 3-5 % of household income in NYC as rich, then that is not reasonable, no.

EDIT: Put a coke on the black card in my name, Snapper.
   69. dlf Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5620631)
That's a $500K a year income without touching principal. You're deranged.



That is not REMOTELY enough to live a flying-business-class lifestyle in NYC metro. That's less than $400K a year PRETAX income (and you will be paying tax on that no matter how you play it b/c of the AMT), once you take out the down payment for a nice house.


Ten year T-bills are at 2.73% today. Unless the government defaults on its obligations, that is a 100% safe return of $409,500 a year. A little more risky, but a nice tax free municipal bond fund like Vanguard's VWLTX has returned 5.85% on average annually since 1977. That is a bit better than $875,000 per year. Add a six figure pension and complete medical, and a principal that is never touched and I'd take that as "rich" in NYC even if not super wealthy. And it assumes that he has already spent / paid taxes amounting to ~65% of his contracted earnings so I'm guessing he's already made that down payment on a nice house.

Edit: A champagne flute of Dom for snapper and jmurph.
   70. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:35 PM (#5620635)
When you go on these semi-regular rants I can't really tell if you're joking? Anyway that's in like the 95th or something percentile for household income in Manhattan. And you're also ignoring the 6 figure pension and lifetime MLB health plan and the fact that he will be a former all star baseball player with ongoing earning potential.

If you do not define the top 3-5 % of household income in NYC as rich, then that is not reasonable, no.


That's using 'Manhattan', which conveniently includes densely-populated neighborhoods north of 96th Street. Using a more reasonable benchmark for someone who was a successful pro athlete, the 95th percentile household income in uptown Manhattan south of 96th street is approximately $1,000,000. So yes, Todd Frazier is rich compared to the folks in Washington Heights, and no, I don't think that's what he had in mind when he busted ass to become a top-tier pro athlete.
   71. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5620637)
A little more risky, but a nice tax free municipal bond fund like Vanguard's VWLTX has returned 5.85% on average annually since 1977. That is a bit better than $875,000 per year.


That's not going to be tax-free though, even under 2018 tax law. He'll get tripped up by the AMT to the extent his income is over the exemption. So he'll probably pay something like a 20% effective tax on the muni fund, which means, net net with the risk, he's not much better off than in treasuries.
   72. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5620640)
My first thought was, Todd Frazier...isn't he still good?

Nice signing by the Mets.

That is not REMOTELY enough to live a flying-business-class lifestyle in NYC metro.


Agree. You really can't live in any major city around the world(NY, London, Tokyo, Berlin, Sydney, Shanghai, etc) really well on $500K per year. If you have a wife and couple of kids that attend private schools then the kids schooling alone is costing you $60K per year. Any home/apartment you buy is likely to be $3 mil plus at a minimum. At $3 mil you are pretty much just living next to your typical surgeon or law partner(medium firm size). Not terribly exclusive.

They say happiness peaks at $80k per year.


Peak/plateau, whatever. I call shenanigans on that. I own a small business and have had years where I've made over $300K and others where I've got by on about $100K, I can assure you I'm exponentially happier during the $300K years. I can take my family on nice holidays and don't need to stress about paying the mortgage, school fees, auto insurance, electricity bills, etc. etc. etc. I am not a greedy person by any means and it's always nice to have just enough to afford what is essentially a westernised middle-class lifestyle. Now admittedly I live in Sydney which is quite expensive property wise and the cost of living is quite high in Australia in general.
   73. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:41 PM (#5620646)
That's using 'Manhattan', which conveniently includes densely-populated neighborhoods north of 96th Street. Using a more reasonable benchmark for someone who was a successful pro athlete, the 95th percentile household income in uptown Manhattan south of 96th street is approximately $1,000,000. So yes, Todd Frazier is rich compared to the folks in Washington Heights, and no, I don't think that's what he had in mind when he busted ass to become a top-tier pro athlete.

Whoa buddy. So "not joking" it is, then. I selected the richest borough on purpose, out of deference to your argument.

But no, it continues to be true that there is not really a reasonable definition of rich that doesn't include the numbers we're discussing.

EDIT: Yeeeeessssssss, it just got even better, with Hugh's arrival. This is my favorite ongoing subtopic here and it deserves its own permanent thread. Absolutely hilarious.
   74. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:48 PM (#5620655)
But no, it continues to be true that there is not really a reasonable definition of rich that doesn't include the numbers we're discussing.


I do appreciate you telling us how much money we need to live in our own city. Such insight.

Income inequality (and de facto segregation) in NYC means that no borough is rich because borough boundaries don't track the nice neighborhoods. But in the rather large and well populated area in NY that wealthy people actually live in, $400K is not rich. Even you, jmurph, are rich compared to someone in Somalia or Albania, but that doesn't matter much unless you count running water and shoes as luxuries.
   75. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:48 PM (#5620656)
Peak/plateau, whatever. I call shenanigans on that.

That idea is actually bunk, you're right about that. It came down to happiness/satisfaction, or something like that (no idea where the original paper is but here's a pop summary at Slate). They actually found no point at which "life satisfaction" stopped improving based on increased wealth.
   76. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:52 PM (#5620662)
Agree. You really can't live in any major city around the world(NY, London, Tokyo, Berlin, Sydney, Shanghai, etc) really well on $500K per year. If you have a wife and couple of kids that attend private schools then the kids schooling alone is costing you $60K per year. Any home/apartment you buy is likely to be $3 mil plus at a minimum. At $3 mil you are pretty much just living next to your typical surgeon or law partner(medium firm size). Not terribly exclusive.

Or you could just live in the suburbs, like Frazier does, and your kids go to school for fee.
   77. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5620666)
I do appreciate you telling us how much money we need to live in our own city. Such insight.

I live in your city. I have a lot less money than Frazier. I can afford to fly business class.

You're defining rich as being able to live in the most expensive buildings, on the most expensive streets, in the most expensive neighborhoods, of the most expensive borough, in a big apartment, and waste money on stupid #### like $30K private schools.
   78. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5620667)
Coincidentally, from an article that's been circulating today from San Francisco (similar cost of living to NYC):

"On the weekends, Nguyen works at a supermarket. All together, working seven days a week, he says he cobbles together about $70,000 annually while his wife works one job in marketing and makes $75,000.

'Sometimes I feel embarrassed, not with my wife, but with the students because students have this perception of a professor," Nguyen said. "A while back, my worst fear was to bump into one of my students at Safeway — for them to see me in my Safeway uniform.'"


So this guy feels the need to work a part time job at a supermarket to supplement his income - and his household income is $155,000. Just saying. Is he "rich" too? Wondering where the line is.
   79. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:58 PM (#5620670)
You're rich compared to someone in Somalia or Albania, but that doesn't matter much unless you count running water and shoes as luxuries.

This is the greatest sentence in the history of Primer.

The neighborhood with the highest median income that I can find is Tribeca (which surprised me!), at $170K and change. So again, just as a reminder, we're currently discussing an income of roughly 3 times that (just based on investing a conservative definition of his career earnings), which continues to not include any ongoing earning potential Todd Frazier will have after his playing days.
   80. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 04:59 PM (#5620672)
I live in your city. I have a lot less money than Frazier. I can afford to fly business class.


I call bullshit. You're dropping 5K per person on RT airfare to Europe? Come now. If your point is that you get FF points from your job / CC and cash them in for airline tickets, then that's just a quirk of the perk. You're not living a 'business-class' lifestyle, i.e. being able to piss away $5K on a stupid airplane ticket.

You're defining rich as being able to live in the most expensive buildings, on the most expensive streets, in the most expensive neighborhoods, of the most expensive borough, in a big apartment, and waste money on stupid #### like $30K private schools.


TBF, property tax in the good districts in the burbs screws you just the same. The only difference is that it doesn't scale with number of kids (unlike private school tuition), so it subsidizes the fecund.

Now, if you want to argue that sending your kid to the best schools is to "waste money on stupid ####\", I'll argue the other side of that all day. I can't think of anything more important to spend money on, other than (perhaps) health insurance.
   81. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5620674)
So this guy feels the need to work a part time job at a supermarket to supplement his income - and his household income is $155,000. Just saying. Is he "rich" too? Wondering where the line is.

I'm missing the connection between this family and the retired player bringing in half a million dollars a year in retirement just from his investments.

EDIT: Oh and the pension! I keep forgetting that. It's big, btw.
   82. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5620677)
I mean among the top 5% in household earners in whichever neighborhood he chooses, he's definitely going to be below the mean. You're dead right about that. And there's certainly no quantifying the shame that will bring to his children, I acknowledge.
   83. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:04 PM (#5620680)

The neighborhood with the highest median income that I can find is Tribeca (which surprised me!), at $170K and change. So again, just as a reminder, we're currently discussing an income of roughly 3 times that (just based on investing a conservative definition of his career earnings), which continues to not include any ongoing earning potential Todd Frazier will have after his playing days.


Fake news. Again, you're ignoring the bimodal distribution of NYC income and the influence of rent control. Median income in NYC is a fake construct because few can afford to live in those neighborhoods at the median - its a mix of people getting real or de facto government subsidies and then the people who are paying out of pocket, with vastly higher incomes.
   84. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:11 PM (#5620684)
Well christ man I don't know how to sort building by building. But it's probably worth pointing out that you're defining everything down and down into such a narrow way from the starting point, in your post in 66, which was NYC as a whole, that it's getting a little ridiculous.
   85. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:12 PM (#5620685)

I call bullshit. You're dropping 5K per person on RT airfare to Europe? Come now.


I don't do it. Because it's asinine. I'm not spending $10K on the airfare when the whole rest of the trip only costs me $10K.

But, my parents have a similar income, and they do fly business class to Europe every time they go. Given their age and physical condition, it's worth it to them.

TBF, property tax in the good districts in the burbs screws you just the same. The only difference is that it doesn't scale with number of kids (unlike private school tuition), so it subsidizes the fecund.


You don't think you pay property tax on NYC apartments? Plus an extra 7% income tax.

Looking at actual listings, for $3M, you can get a 8,000 sq. ft. house in Greenwich, CT, on 4+ acres, and your taxes are $27,600. Not even one child's tuition.

Now, if you want to argue that sending your kid to the best schools is to "waste money on stupid ####\", I'll argue the other side of that all day. I can't think of anything more important to spend money on, other than (perhaps) health insurance.

No, I'm arguing that going to those schools gives your kids absolutely zero benefits vs. going to a good public or parochial school. They are a waste because they do nothing.

The "effect" of "good" schools (whether it be elementary, HS, or college) is virtually 100% screening/signalling. They pre-select students who will do well.
   86. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:14 PM (#5620687)
Just wanted to thank Lassus for [55]
   87. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:18 PM (#5620693)
, I don't think that's what he had in mind when he busted ass to become a top-tier pro athlete.

Yeah, he's had to play in 1507 professional baseball games, and that doesn't even count Little League or high school and college. Oh, the humanity!

And don't forget all those hours in the weight room!
   88. . . . . . . Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:19 PM (#5620695)
No, I'm arguing that going to those schools gives your kids absolutely zero benefits vs. going to a good public or parochial school. They are a waste because they do nothing.

The "effect" of "good" schools (whether it be elementary, HS, or college) is virtually 100% screening/signalling. They pre-select students who will do well.


I think that's completely, 100%, totally wrong, and I'm familiar with the research you've cited. But then again, I attribute my own success to being lucky enough to not have parents who were so cheap they rationalized sending me to a crappy school to save money for business class fares to Europe.
   89. Sunday silence Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5620696)
#31 ... Snapper already pointed to relievers. But there is some truth that the solid bench player/borderline starter/whatever type is sometimes underpaid on the FA market. A good 1 WAR middle IF probably only pulls down about $5 M these days.


What the guy is saying in no. 31 is that the value of WAR does not scale linearly if we are talking multiple WARs per player. "Value" here referring to what an owner will pay him. And you seem to agree with this concept Walt, at least in some ways.

So why do you keep insisting that WAR is better than WAA for evaluating HoF candidacies? It seems pretty much agreed upon that a 4 WAR season/play is more likely to produce a pennance than two 2 WAR seasons from that same player.

Of course the "value" here is different; in one case it's player salaries and in another case its the liklihood of a pennant but presumably owner's pay with pretty much that in mind.

Is this not a contradiction?
   90. Sunday silence Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5620704)
There are guys in the minors who fit fairly similar profiles ... or at least could give you either the lefty-mashing PAs


do we actually know this as a fact? Cause we had discussion several weeks ago re: Martinez and the value or lack thereof of his defense and basically they were insisting that you cannot find replacement level hitters in the minors...
   91. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 06, 2018 at 05:55 PM (#5620738)
They say happiness peaks at $80k per year.


I think I was happier back when I was making $80k, but that's probably because I was younger and better looking.
   92. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 06, 2018 at 06:03 PM (#5620744)
BTW, I like Frazier and wish him the best and hope he gets another pay day after this one. But the guy's produced 22 WAR in 7 seasons, peaking at just over 5. If that's the pinnacle of the profession, then WTF is Mike Trout?
   93. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 06, 2018 at 06:33 PM (#5620754)
This is a good deal, and it's bizarre that he was that cheap.


Get ready to say that 30 or 40 more times in the next month.


Lol, beat me to it. Come March 20 we'll be like "why did the Mets spend so much on Frazier when they could have waited out Moustakas?"
   94. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: February 06, 2018 at 06:34 PM (#5620755)
If that's the pinnacle of the profession, then WTF is Mike Trout?


Mike Trout has reached the pinnacle of the profession, but will make only $146M through the end of his current contract. Even if you tack on another $300M for his next contract, then he still won't be in the 95th percentile for household income for Monty Burns's neighborhood.
   95. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 06, 2018 at 06:36 PM (#5620756)
then WTF is Mike Trout?


A guy who will be able to fly on his OWN privte jet in retirement.
   96. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 06, 2018 at 07:39 PM (#5620764)
No, I'm arguing that going to those schools gives your kids absolutely zero benefits vs. going to a good public or parochial school. They are a waste because they do nothing.


Doesn't really matter what you think. I guy like Frazier isn't sending his kids to the local high school unless he lives somewhere like Beverly Hills where of course a decent house is like $5 mil and the local high school is well regarded by the locals.

   97. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 06, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5620765)
I think that's completely, 100%, totally wrong, and I'm familiar with the research you've cited. But then again, I attribute my own success to being lucky enough to not have parents who were so cheap they rationalized sending me to a crappy school to save money for business class fares to Europe.

I went to public school all the way through HS and then Harvard. I was as well prepared as any of the kids who went to fancy prep schools.

Doesn't really matter what you think. I guy like Frazier isn't sending his kids to the local high school unless he lives somewhere like Beverly Hills where of course a decent house is like $5 mil and the local high school is well regarded by the locals.

I specifically cited Greenwich, which is known for good schools. I wouldn't be surprised if Frazier sends his kids to school in Toms River, which is where he's from. Most ballplayers aren't snobs, whatever their many flaws.
   98. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5620780)
I went to public school all the way through HS and then Harvard. I was as well prepared as any of the kids who went to fancy prep schools.


I would suggest that your preparation had more to do with your own self motivation then the public school. I went to public schools and went to Berkeley and was/still am a pretty hard worker.

I specifically cited Greenwich, which is known for good schools.


Well I know of Greenwich of course but not familiar with the public school system. I would also imagine that area has some pretty good private schools too. I would think that for your kid of average intelligence and typical teenage motivational levels that exposing them to the greater resources that a private school can provide would yield some positive benefits.
   99. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:45 PM (#5620785)
The resources available in public schools in wealthy suburbs dwarf those of all but the most elite private schools.
   100. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 06, 2018 at 08:47 PM (#5620788)
The resources available in public schools in wealthy suburbs dwarf those of all but the most elite private schools.


Where do they get these resources? Where does the money come from?

I'm not trolling you, I'm genuinely interested in how a public school in the U.S. can have more resources then a school charging $30K per year and have a similar amount of students.

Edited to add last question.
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