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Monday, July 17, 2017

Mets should let a Jacob deGrom trade offer blow them away

Now, say you have Jacob deGrom. If you are the Mets, you love deGrom. He is a keeper, the one you planned to stick with throughout his prime.

But you are Sandy Alderson, and you notice the supply for top starters is thin and the demand great. Do you stick with the original strategy and ignore the market place? Or do you see what he is worth?

Because you have an idea of the value, but say a desperate team is willing to double that value, better positioning your team for years to come. And, lo and behold, five teams with arguably top seven or eight farm systems need someone just like deGrom – the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Brewers and Braves.

Remember, putting the house or player on the market does NOT mean you have to unload it. This is merely an exercise in seeing how far a hungry suitor might go.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 17, 2017 at 02:10 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jacob degrom, mets

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   1. ReggieThomasLives Posted: July 17, 2017 at 02:34 PM (#5494744)
If this deGrom fellow is a typical Mets starter they should just assume he's on the verge of greatness and days away from career limiting injury and start the auction now.
   2. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 17, 2017 at 02:53 PM (#5494756)
A month ago, when articles like this started and the Astros were supposedly sniffing around, my Indignant Fanboy Pose was to say "Fine. You want deGrom? We'll take Altuve off your hands."

Now I'm not sure it wouldn't be best for the long run...
   3. Bote Man Posted: July 17, 2017 at 03:05 PM (#5494763)
Mets should let a Jacob deGrom trade offer blow them away

Well, the Nationals hitters have been blowing away the Mets all year, so why not try something different??? #amirite?
   4. ??'s Biggest Fan! Posted: July 17, 2017 at 03:09 PM (#5494768)
Shoot... I 'd take Bregman, Martes and Tucker and wouldn't look back. If Alderson can mind trick Houston to give that haul up for deGrom, you'd essentially find answers to the OF, back end of the rotation and left side of the infield for the forseeable future. And it probably doesn't impact your ability to compete in the short term either.
   5. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 17, 2017 at 03:09 PM (#5494769)
If someone is willing to offer excess value for deGrom, then sure, take it. But while 2017 looks lost, this team should be planning on contending in 2018. So you don't want to make a trade that significantly hurts your chances next year. Seems like a very difficult thing to pull off if you're the Mets.
   6. ??'s Biggest Fan! Posted: July 17, 2017 at 03:22 PM (#5494791)
If someone is willing to offer excess value for deGrom

I actually think this mirrors the reliever scenario from last year. Desperate teams trying to win in the post season have a deficit of quality, controllable starters on the trade market. Of all the names out there, deGrom is the only one that checks all the boxes, I'd be all in on deGrom if the market is Sonny Gray and possibly Gerrit Cole. Neither of the latter two pitchers have the post season resume of deGrom. Plus, deGrom is 29 years old, with TJS already in his past.
   7. madvillain Posted: July 17, 2017 at 03:53 PM (#5494820)
Plus, deGrom is 29 years old, with TJS already in his past


Cameron's piece on Fangraphs had him #31, which seems a wild overbid, especially when Cameron doesn't seem to know/realize he already had Tommy John and yes, has had elbow soreness limiting his innings as recently as...last year!

But the upside is undeniable. He’s probably a top-10 starter with three more trips through arbitration coming, and his reduced innings totals and lack of awards to this point means arbiters aren’t going to give him extremely large raises. If you knew deGrom were going to be good for 600 innings over the next three years, he’d be in the top 15 on this list, and maybe the top 10. So while he’s a bit of a risk, he’s also a dominant frontline starter, and those generally don’t come risk free. If the Mets decided to take advantage of the demand for controllable starters this summer, they could get a very good return for Jacob deGrom.


I dunno man. Dominant seems a huge overbid as well. Cameron was using xFIP- for 2014-17 in his link for "dominant" and while that's nice, (he ranked #10) he's also 42nd in innings during that time. He's a health risk, even moreso than most pitchers, and will need to be babied as much as possible.

I think they'd do well to get a top 50 guy for him and a B- prospect and some filler.
   8. Adam Starblind Posted: July 17, 2017 at 04:13 PM (#5494829)

I think they'd do well to get a top 50 guy for him and a B- prospect and some filler.


pfft
   9. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:04 PM (#5494857)
If that's the best they can do, then they should not consider it.
   10. Cargo Cultist Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:21 PM (#5494867)
Trading for a Mets pitcher is like buying a glassful of nitroglycerin. It will blow up on you.

Just say no. Get Sonny instead. The A's are essentially giving away pitchers at the moment, so you could probably get him for a broken player and a pair of lottery tickets.
   11. Adam Starblind Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:40 PM (#5494881)


Trading for a Mets pitcher is like buying a glassful of nitroglycerin. It will blow up on you.


That's not how it works. The Mets' luck runs the other way. Ask Michael Fulmer or Collin McHugh.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2017 at 05:48 PM (#5494886)
He should easily be able to bring in a top 10 prospect, assuming a team that needs him has a top-10 prospect. Or possibly a top 20 and a top 75 if they don't. Maybe he's not "dominant" and a bit fragile but a 134 ERA+ and K/BB over 4 and 3 years of control left (probably about $36 M total) is a huge prize.
   13. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 17, 2017 at 06:17 PM (#5494903)
The Mets were in the World Series in 2015, made the playoffs in 2016, and have tons of money coming of the books at the end of the season with Walker, Granderson, Cabrera, Duda, and Jay Bruce in the last year of their deals. Conforto, Rosario, and Cespedes could form a pretty good core for position players starting next year, and the Mets should be able to spend some money.

The 2018 Mets could be pretty good. It's way too early to think about tearing things down.

If someone wants to seriously overpay for deGrom, go ahead. But the realization should be that the minute you trade him away, you are looking for a replacement. The Mets are ready to win now.
   14. Adam Starblind Posted: July 17, 2017 at 06:34 PM (#5494917)
What are the Mets' needs going into the offseason? A real centerfielder, a second-baseman, an average starter would be very helpful. Missing anything?
   15. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 17, 2017 at 07:44 PM (#5494951)
He should easily be able to bring in a top 10 prospect, assuming a team that needs him has a top-10 prospect. Or possibly a top 20 and a top 75 if they don't. Maybe he's not "dominant" and a bit fragile but a 134 ERA+ and K/BB over 4 and 3 years of control left (probably about $36 M total) is a huge prize.
Sounds like slightly less than what the Sox got for Quintana, which I think is reasonable. Wouldn't do it if I'm the Mets, but that's only because I think it'd hurt them too much in 2018.
   16. madvillain Posted: July 17, 2017 at 07:50 PM (#5494955)
He should easily be able to bring in a top 10 prospect, assuming a team that needs him has a top-10 prospect. Or possibly a top 20 and a top 75 if they don't.


That's a pretty big delta.
   17. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 17, 2017 at 08:04 PM (#5494962)
Missing anything?

It depends. Are the Mets keeping Duda or even Bruce at 1st? Who is playing third, Flores or Rivera? I wish Lagares and/Or Nimmo could stay healthy because they could part of the situation at third. Even with Familia back next year, they are going to need to rebuild an awful bullpen.

It'd probably be prudent to sign an innings eater.
   18. madvillain Posted: July 17, 2017 at 08:45 PM (#5494979)
It'd probably be prudent to sign an innings eater.


Colon's back, maybe the Mets can trade for him.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2017 at 09:58 PM (#5495018)
That's a pretty big delta.

Not really. It's one excellent prospect vs. one very good and one good. You'd be getting one prospect below Eloy Jimenez but one above Dylan Cease (probably). Here are BPro's mid-season 2016 #11-#20 prospects (the first list a search turned up):

Benintendi, Gallo, Trea Turner, David Dahl, Rosario, Margot, Jose Berrios, Jeff Hoffman, Devers, Mondesi

The list only goes to 50, but here's #40-50 which is kinda the midpoint:

Kyle Tucker, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Newman, Hunter Renfroe, Brent Honeywell, Josh Hader, Jorge Alfaro (oops), Yohander Mendez, Luis Ortiz, Brett Phillips, Ian Happ. They had Judge at 25, Frazier at 26, Jimenez 28, Torres 34.

FWIW, some of those 40-50 guys on BPro's midseason 2017: Tucker 14, Honeywell 16, Alfaro 34 (they just won't give up), and (at least) Renfroe and Happ in the majors. (The others seem to have dropped or I missed them or they made the majors and I don't know it.)

Obviously you have to pick right but deGrom for, say, Dahl and Honeywell or Hoffman and Renfroe ... those look like perfectly decent returns for deGrom.

By the way, their top 10 in mid-2016 was Crawford, Moncada, Urias, Bregman, Rodgers, Meadows, Arcia, Alex Reyes, Robles and Swanson. That list isn't particularly different than how #11-20 are doing in 2017. Of course it's just one year, in other years there would be a huge difference between #1-10 and #11-20.

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