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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, February 09, 2019
With his injury history, I can’t see the Mets locking him up without a highly discounted price tag. The right-hander would be a terrific fit for the Braves — he lives outside Atlanta — so the Mets need to make sure they can keep Wheeler in their rotation for the long haul.
“I’m here right now, [and] that’s all I’m worried about,” Wheeler said about his upcoming free-agent status after participating in his first day of pre-camp, at one point throwing a bullpen session alongside deGrom and Syndergaard. “All that stuff will figure itself out, and I will worry about that later. You know it’s coming up and you want to have a good year, but at the same time, it’s about what’s now. I’m here with the Mets, and this is where I want to win, and that’s what’s happening right now.”
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1. Walt Davis Posted: February 09, 2019 at 03:55 PM (#5813979)Granted, having Wheeler as your team's 3rd-best CYA bet (and Matz is close if not ahead) speaks well of the rotation.
I am assuming you didn't read the article, because this is a ridiculous response. The author is bullish based on Wheeler's improvements last year in health and results.
Chris Sale: July, 0.36 ERA, 25 IP, 178/229/233, .340 BABIP
Jacob deGrom: May, 0.69 ERA, 26 IP, 181/260/234, .286 BABIP
Cole Hamels: August, 0.69 ERA, 39 IP, 212/286/227, .295 BABIP
Junior Guerra: April 0.82 ERA, 22 IP, 176/282/216, .245 BABIP
Johnny Cueto: April, 0.84 ERA, 32 IP, 150/216/206. .188 BABIP
Tyler Skaggs: June, 0.84 ERA, 32 IP, 235/282/322, .338 BABIP
Justin Verlander: May, 0.86 ERA, 41.2 IP, 153/201/236, .223 BABIP
Jake Arrieta: May, 0.90 ERA, 30 IP, 236/296/302, .282 BABIP
Sean Manaea: April, 1.03 ERA, 43.2 IP, 134/178/221, .148 BABIP
Blake Snell: August, 1.04 ERA 26 IP, 131/187/250, .184 BABIP
Aaron Nola: August, 1.06, 34 IP, 189/254/262, .253 BABIP
Luis Castillo: Sept, 1.09 ERA, 33 IP, 172/230/302, .203 BABIP
Reynaldo Lopez: Sept, 1.09 ERA, 33 IP, 164/228/250, .213 BABIP
Justin Verlander (2): Sept, 1.09 ERA, 33 IP, 143/185/205, .242 BABIP
Zack Wheeler: August, 1.12 ERA, 40 IP, 193/245/271, .268 BABIP
Jon Lester: June, 1.12 ERA, 32 IP, 155/231/245, .170 BABIP
Jack Flaherty: August, 1.12 ERA, 32 IP, 136/212/223, .190 BABIP
Mike Foltynewicz: June, 1.12 ERA, 24 IP, 123/211/185, .176 BABIP
Trevor Williams: August, 1.16 ERA, 31 IP, 204/256/310, .225 BABIP
Jose Urena: Sept, 1.20 ERA, 30 IP, 183/254/279, .198 BABIP
Ross Stripling: May, 1.20 ERA, 30 IP, 216/243/270, .333 BABIP
Wheeler's second lowest ERA in a month with 4+ starts is 3.13 in July, less than ideal for a Cy Young case.
1.10 - Chris Sale 49 IP, 84 K, 0.71 WHIP
1.36 - Blake Snell 79.1 IP, 108 K, 0.89 WHIP
1.56 - Jacob deGrom 109.2 IP, 135 K, 0.81 WHIP
1.87 - Trevor Bauer 57.2 IP, 71 K, 1.13 WHIP
2.15 - Trevor Williams 83.2 IP, 62 K, 1.16 WHIP
2.21 - Zack Wheeler 93.2 IP, 93 K, 0.93 WHIP
2.26 - Aaron Nola 103.1 IP, 117 K, 0.94 WHIP
2.30 - Walker Buehler 78.1 IP, 94 K, 0.93 WHIP
2.41 - German Marquez 108.1 IP, 137 K, 0.92 WHIP
2.42 - Kyle Freeland 104 IP, 92 K, 1.27 WHIP
2.45 - Carlos Carrasco 95.1 IP, 125 K, 1.06 WHIP
Oops above, it's Ryne Stanek not Ryan but he has 4.13 ERA in 2nd half starts. 2nd half of the previous season for Cy Young winners:
1.57 - Clayton Kershaw 2014, 114.2 IP, 114 K, 0.86 WHIP
2.41 - Corey Kluber 2017, 101 IP, 113 K, 1.07 WHIP
2.61 - Max Scherzer 2017, 113.2 IP, 136 K, 0.98 WHIP
3.03 - Jake Arrieta 2015, 92 IP, 93 K, 0.98 WHIP
3.08 - Dallas Keuchel 2015, 96.1 IP, 63 K, 1.26 WHIP
3.28 - Blake Snell 2018, 82.1 IP, 79 K, 1.15 WHIP
3.49 - Rick Porcello 2016, 77.1 IP, 74 K, 1.31 WHIP
3.51 - Jacob deGrom 2018, 97.1 IP, 114 K, 1.15 WHIP
3.52 - Corey Kluber 2014, 71.2 IP, 63 K, 1.23 WHIP
3.85 - Max Scherzer 2016, 110 IP, 137 K, 1.07 WHIP
I'm looking forward to your revamp of BBTF where you complain that people don't post what you think they should about an article and then get cranky.
But y'know, I'd a thought the point of my post was obvious enough and therefore far from "ridiculous" -- given Wheeler's history, all of which matters, spotlighting him as a potential CYA winner is rather ... ummm ... ridiculous. It could happen but a far more realistic hope is "hopefully Wheeler stays healthy and repeats 2018." And of course only after that do you start to give much thought to keeping him long-term ... something the author of the piece seems to think the Mets need to act on quickly.
If the headline was "Zack Wheeler is a talented pitcher" or "Maybe 2018 will be Wheeler's breakout ... or maybe not" or "Wheeler has probably 3rd-best chance at CYA ... on the Mets!" or "Wheeler probably has better CYA chance than Reynaldo Lopez, almost certainly better than Mike Foltynewicz ... and who is Trevor Williams?" then I would not have commented.
But I'll agree -- if Wheeler can repeat the best 11 start stretch of his career 3 times in 2019, he's a shoo-in for the CYA. If he can repeat that stretch just twice, he'll probably win it unless he misses the remaining starts or really, really stinks. If Javy Baez can repeat his June-July 3 times --- 325/354/582, 54 doubles, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 36 SB -- I kinda like his MVP chances.
24.2 - Corey Kluber 855.2 IP, 150 ERA+, 62 OPS+, Cy 1-3-3-9
19.0 - Teddy Higuera 794.1 IP, 123 ERA+, 75 OPS+, Cy 6
16.9 - Jake Arrieta 767.1 IP, 137 ERA+, 71 OPS+, Cy 1-9
16.8 - Larry Jackson 1020.1 IP, 121 ERA+, 83 OPS+
14.8 - Charlie Leibrandt 875.2 IP, 109 ERA+, 95 OPS+
13.3 - Bob Veale 982.2 IP, 117 ERA+, 80 OPS+
12.7 - Darryl Kile 880.2 IP, 107 ERA+, 96 OPS+, Cy 5
11.5 - Sonny Siebert 809.2 IP, 114 ERA+, 85 OPS+
11.1 - Livan Hernandez 921.2 IP, 103 ERA+, 106 OPS+
10.3 - Dave Goltz 719.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 102 OPS+
9.8 - Turk Farrell 761.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 103 OPS+
4.9 - Tim Wakefield 769 IP, 102 ERA+, 98 OPS+
4.4 - Erik Bedard 293.1 IP, 121 ERA+, 84 OPS+
2.5 - Sid Monge 304.2 IP, 101 ERA+, 103 OPS+
1.1 - Ray Culp 397.2 IP, 92 ERA+, 101 OPS+
1.0 - Roger Nelson 148.2 IP, 105 ERA+, 81 OPS+
0.4 - Carl Pavano 145.2 IP, 86 ERA+, 123 OPS+
-1.0 - Tom Murphy 348.1 IP, 92 ERA+, 116 OPS+
Arrieta really shows his potential in a stretch of 11 games in June and July: 1.73 ERA, 72.2 IP, 162/217/217, .231 BABIP and then puts it together for a full season and wins the Cy Young at 29. Kluber wins the Cy with his breakout Age 28 season and again at 31.
It's not even the real headline. Sorry you wasted your time, Walt.
Don't tell me, tell Syndergaard. He'll feel so owned.
Age 22, Clayton Kershaw 11.8 WAR: Brad Keller 3.5, Jack Flaherty 2.3
Age 23, Felix Hernandez 17.9 WAR: German Marquez 8.1, Roberto Osuna 6.8
Age 23, Tim Lincecum 2.3 WAR: Seranthony Dominguez 2.4, Victor Arano 2.5, Alex Reyes 2.5
Age 24, Zack Greinke 12.3 WAR: Luis Severino 11.8, Lance McCullers Jr. 6.1
Age 24, Blake Snell 1.8 WAR: Zach Eflin 1.8, Ryan Borucki 1.7
Age 25, Roy Halladay 10.5 WAR: Michael Fulmer 9.7, Kyle Freeland 11.7, Aaron Sanchez 9.3
Age 25, David Price 9.3 WAR: Aaron Sanchez 9.3, Blake Snell 9.2
Age 26, Rick Porcello 11.1 WAR: Carlos Martinez 13.6, Jameson Taillon 8.5
Age 26, Dallas Keuchel 4.6 WAR: Corey Knebel 4.4, Vince Velasquez 4.2
Age 27, Justin Verlander 19.7 WAR: Gerrit Cole 16.7, Julio Teheran 16.7
Age 27, Max Scherzer 11.7 WAR: Kevin Gausman 11.4, Alex Wood 12.5
Age 27, Corey Kluber 1.1 WAR: Derek Law 1.1, Hansel Robles 1.2, Juan Minaya 1.2, Emilio Pagan 1, Drew VerHagen 1, Nick Wittgren 1
Age 28, Jake Arrieta 6.2 WAR: Mike Montgomery 6.1, Zack Wheeler 6.4
Age 29, Jacob deGrom 16.1 WAR: Masahiro Tanaka 15.6, Danny Duffy 14.2
Age 36, RA Dickey 8 WAR: Oliver Perez 9.7, Blaine Boyer -1.6
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