Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

MGL: What’s in store for the Tigers in the second half?

Tigers don’t suck…at least according to MGL.

What does the rest of 2014 look like for the Detroit Tigers? We would expect their collective pitcher projections for the rest of the season to be nearly the same as before the season began. Their hitter projections might be a tad better and their defensive projections a tad worse. Overall, we wouldn’t expect their rest-of-season (ROS) win percentage to be much different from their pre-season win percentage, which was .543. That would give them a final record of 92 wins and 70 losses, enough for an easy first place finish in the AL Central.

In fact, if we look at Fangraphs’ projected final standings, lo and behold, we see a final W/L record of 92-70, 10 games ahead of the second place Royals and 11 games above the third place Indians. If we look at Baseball Prospectus’ projected standings, we see a slightly less optimistic forecast for the Tigers – a final record of 90 and 72, 7 games ahead of the Royals and 10 games ahead of the Indians. The good folks at BP also have the Tigers’ playoff chances at 89% and their chances of winning the World Series at 12.3%, behind only the Oakland A’s (at 14.9%), and ever so-slightly being the Los Angeles Angels (13%) and Los Angeles Dodgers (13.1%).

The Tigers are a fine team with a solid offense and excellent starting pitching. They can absolutely upgrade their bullpen, especially the front end. If and when veteran flamethrower Joel Hanrahan comes back from Tommy John surgery, that will be a boost to the pen, assuming that he’s still effective. (Reports are that Hanrahan MAY NOT be available during the regular season). It would also be nice if they had a dominant ace or two rather than the aging and sometimes ineffective Nathan and the good but not great Alburquerque. Their defense is not as bad as their first half team UZR suggests, although they are likely a little below average in true talent with the gloves. Expect them to run away with the American League Central division and with a little luck win a pennant and perhaps the World Series.

Repoz Posted: July 16, 2014 at 07:33 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, tigers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 16, 2014 at 07:49 AM (#4751694)
Remember when the Royals went on a crazy winning streak and caught up to the Tigers? That already feels like ages ago.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:08 AM (#4751725)
What's the point of this article?

"Team projects to keep playing basically the same as they've been playing" is a terrible story line.
   3. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:11 AM (#4751730)
It's on a Tigers fan website; Tigers fans will love reading this because they devour all things Tigers. You can't bring something fresh and innovative every day. A lot of days you just have to write a couple thousand rote words on the obvious subject du jour and cash your paycheck.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:24 AM (#4751735)
It's on a Tigers fan website; Tigers fans will love reading this because they devour all things Tigers. You can't bring something fresh and innovative every day. A lot of days you just have to write a couple thousand rote words on the obvious subject du jour and cash your paycheck.

I didn't think MGL had a regular "beat"? This Tiger fan website pays him?
   5. Moeball Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:24 AM (#4751736)
"Team projects to keep playing basically the same as they've been playing" is a terrible story line.


Especially if your favorite team is the Padres (sigh).
   6. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:30 AM (#4751740)
I didn't think MGL had a regular "beat"? This Tiger fan website pays him?
MGL writes for Tiger Beat???
   7. Rally Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:44 AM (#4751745)
I didn't think MGL had a regular "beat"? This Tiger fan website pays him?


I doubt a fan website is paying anything. Since it's a Tiger site their first choice was probably Tango, but he works for the Cubs.
   8. Bote Man Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:01 AM (#4751832)
But if MGL says it, then it MUST be true!!
   9. Spahn Insane, stool of Tarantino Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:06 AM (#4751838)
What's the point of this article?

"Team projects to keep playing basically the same as they've been playing" is a terrible story line.


Yes, but if you're smart, and I know you are, you hadn't actually adopted that view for your own until it got the MGL endorsement. Because smart though you may be, you're not as smart as MGL. As if anyone possibly could be.
   10. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:35 AM (#4751878)
Now let’s look at the Tigers’ pitching performance thus far in 2014 compared to their pre-season projections:

The ERA numbers in this table are all wrong. It has:

2.88 - Scherzer
2.99 - Sanchez
3.75 - Porcello
4.02 - Verlander
4.23 - Smyly

2.56 - Chamberlain
3.59 - Alburquerque
4.64 - Nathan
5.83 - Krol

Based on the IP totals, this was compiled about a week ago, but the numbers still would have been wrong then. Verlander's ERA hasn't been as low as 4.02 since May. Scherzer's hasn't been below 3.00 since May. Porcello's hasn't been as high as 3.75 since June 20. Etc.

I guess he's using FIP, but it says "ERA" throughout the article.

Also, he says a typical lineup for the Tigers has Austin Jackson batting leadoff -- but he's only batted leadoff in 13 games (12 starts) this year, all of them in the past couple of weeks.

And "The Tigers have been remarkably healthy this season, with nary an impact player missing any time due to injury" -- but Anibal Sanchez had a DL stint, Victor Martinez has only played 2 games in July. Bruce Rondon and Jose Iglesias have missed the whole season, though perhaps the projections were aware of that.

Anyway, seems like he hasn't really been following the Tigers that closely.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:43 AM (#4751894)
Yes, but if you're smart, and I know you are, you hadn't actually adopted that view for your own until it got the MGL endorsement. Because smart though you may be, you're not as smart as MGL. As if anyone possibly could be.

Actually, I'm pretty sure I'm smarter. Thinking you're the smartest guy in the world is a classic sign of a above average, but not exceptional intellect.
   12. Spahn Insane, stool of Tarantino Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:54 AM (#4751905)
Actually, I'm pretty sure I'm smarter. Thinking you're the smartest guy in the world is a classic sign of a above average, but not exceptional intellect.

Yes, well, that's our MGL.
   13. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:54 AM (#4751907)
I'm the 173rd smartest person in the world. I did the math.
   14. mathesond Posted: July 16, 2014 at 01:06 PM (#4751990)
I'm the 173rd smartest person in the world.


Nice. I'm lucky if I'm the 173rd smartest person in the room.
   15. SouthSideRyan Posted: July 16, 2014 at 01:59 PM (#4752071)
You just need to hang out in smaller rooms
   16. Leroy Kincaid Posted: July 16, 2014 at 08:09 PM (#4752381)
Even if you're smarter than most people in the world there are still a few billion who've got you beat.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Kiko Sakata
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(2666 - 12:54am, Jan 18)
Last: Manny Coon

NewsblogOTP 15 January 2018:Mississippi's anti-gay marriage law is hurting two college baseball teams
(888 - 12:53am, Jan 18)
Last: PepTech, Intermittently Stable Genius

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2011 Discussion
(59 - 12:44am, Jan 18)
Last: Kiko Sakata

NewsblogChristian Yelich can only blame himself for Jeter entanglement | New York Post
(15 - 12:40am, Jan 18)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogWhat Is Baseball’s Equivalent of the Vikings’ Miraculous Victory?
(49 - 11:57pm, Jan 17)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogHere's why baseball's economic system might be broken
(37 - 10:58pm, Jan 17)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogAndruw of Center Field
(162 - 10:21pm, Jan 17)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

NewsblogNotable books about baseball published in 2017 | MLB.com
(35 - 10:20pm, Jan 17)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogChristian Yelich's relationship with Miami Marlins is 'irretrievably broken,' agent says
(16 - 9:18pm, Jan 17)
Last: Walt Davis

Hall of MeritTodd Helton
(7 - 9:14pm, Jan 17)
Last: Jaack

Newsblog2018 Top 10 left-handed pitching prospects
(11 - 9:04pm, Jan 17)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogRyan Thibs has his HOF Ballot Tracker Up and Running!
(1475 - 8:39pm, Jan 17)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogPirates, Giants agree to McCutchen trade
(95 - 8:03pm, Jan 17)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(2123 - 7:38pm, Jan 17)
Last: bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent

Hall of MeritLance Berkman
(4 - 7:00pm, Jan 17)
Last: Eric J can SABER all he wants to

Page rendered in 0.1824 seconds
47 querie(s) executed