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Wednesday, July 16, 2014

MGL: What’s in store for the Tigers in the second half?

Tigers don’t suck…at least according to MGL.

What does the rest of 2014 look like for the Detroit Tigers? We would expect their collective pitcher projections for the rest of the season to be nearly the same as before the season began. Their hitter projections might be a tad better and their defensive projections a tad worse. Overall, we wouldn’t expect their rest-of-season (ROS) win percentage to be much different from their pre-season win percentage, which was .543. That would give them a final record of 92 wins and 70 losses, enough for an easy first place finish in the AL Central.

In fact, if we look at Fangraphs’ projected final standings, lo and behold, we see a final W/L record of 92-70, 10 games ahead of the second place Royals and 11 games above the third place Indians. If we look at Baseball Prospectus’ projected standings, we see a slightly less optimistic forecast for the Tigers – a final record of 90 and 72, 7 games ahead of the Royals and 10 games ahead of the Indians. The good folks at BP also have the Tigers’ playoff chances at 89% and their chances of winning the World Series at 12.3%, behind only the Oakland A’s (at 14.9%), and ever so-slightly being the Los Angeles Angels (13%) and Los Angeles Dodgers (13.1%).

The Tigers are a fine team with a solid offense and excellent starting pitching. They can absolutely upgrade their bullpen, especially the front end. If and when veteran flamethrower Joel Hanrahan comes back from Tommy John surgery, that will be a boost to the pen, assuming that he’s still effective. (Reports are that Hanrahan MAY NOT be available during the regular season). It would also be nice if they had a dominant ace or two rather than the aging and sometimes ineffective Nathan and the good but not great Alburquerque. Their defense is not as bad as their first half team UZR suggests, although they are likely a little below average in true talent with the gloves. Expect them to run away with the American League Central division and with a little luck win a pennant and perhaps the World Series.

Repoz Posted: July 16, 2014 at 07:33 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, tigers

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   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 16, 2014 at 07:49 AM (#4751694)
Remember when the Royals went on a crazy winning streak and caught up to the Tigers? That already feels like ages ago.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:08 AM (#4751725)
What's the point of this article?

"Team projects to keep playing basically the same as they've been playing" is a terrible story line.
   3. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:11 AM (#4751730)
It's on a Tigers fan website; Tigers fans will love reading this because they devour all things Tigers. You can't bring something fresh and innovative every day. A lot of days you just have to write a couple thousand rote words on the obvious subject du jour and cash your paycheck.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:24 AM (#4751735)
It's on a Tigers fan website; Tigers fans will love reading this because they devour all things Tigers. You can't bring something fresh and innovative every day. A lot of days you just have to write a couple thousand rote words on the obvious subject du jour and cash your paycheck.

I didn't think MGL had a regular "beat"? This Tiger fan website pays him?
   5. Moeball Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:24 AM (#4751736)
"Team projects to keep playing basically the same as they've been playing" is a terrible story line.


Especially if your favorite team is the Padres (sigh).
   6. TDF, situational idiot Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:30 AM (#4751740)
I didn't think MGL had a regular "beat"? This Tiger fan website pays him?
MGL writes for Tiger Beat???
   7. AROM Posted: July 16, 2014 at 09:44 AM (#4751745)
I didn't think MGL had a regular "beat"? This Tiger fan website pays him?


I doubt a fan website is paying anything. Since it's a Tiger site their first choice was probably Tango, but he works for the Cubs.
   8. boteman is not here 'til October Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:01 AM (#4751832)
But if MGL says it, then it MUST be true!!
   9. Spahn Insane Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:06 AM (#4751838)
What's the point of this article?

"Team projects to keep playing basically the same as they've been playing" is a terrible story line.


Yes, but if you're smart, and I know you are, you hadn't actually adopted that view for your own until it got the MGL endorsement. Because smart though you may be, you're not as smart as MGL. As if anyone possibly could be.
   10. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:35 AM (#4751878)
Now let’s look at the Tigers’ pitching performance thus far in 2014 compared to their pre-season projections:

The ERA numbers in this table are all wrong. It has:

2.88 - Scherzer
2.99 - Sanchez
3.75 - Porcello
4.02 - Verlander
4.23 - Smyly

2.56 - Chamberlain
3.59 - Alburquerque
4.64 - Nathan
5.83 - Krol

Based on the IP totals, this was compiled about a week ago, but the numbers still would have been wrong then. Verlander's ERA hasn't been as low as 4.02 since May. Scherzer's hasn't been below 3.00 since May. Porcello's hasn't been as high as 3.75 since June 20. Etc.

I guess he's using FIP, but it says "ERA" throughout the article.

Also, he says a typical lineup for the Tigers has Austin Jackson batting leadoff -- but he's only batted leadoff in 13 games (12 starts) this year, all of them in the past couple of weeks.

And "The Tigers have been remarkably healthy this season, with nary an impact player missing any time due to injury" -- but Anibal Sanchez had a DL stint, Victor Martinez has only played 2 games in July. Bruce Rondon and Jose Iglesias have missed the whole season, though perhaps the projections were aware of that.

Anyway, seems like he hasn't really been following the Tigers that closely.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:43 AM (#4751894)
Yes, but if you're smart, and I know you are, you hadn't actually adopted that view for your own until it got the MGL endorsement. Because smart though you may be, you're not as smart as MGL. As if anyone possibly could be.

Actually, I'm pretty sure I'm smarter. Thinking you're the smartest guy in the world is a classic sign of a above average, but not exceptional intellect.
   12. Spahn Insane Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:54 AM (#4751905)
Actually, I'm pretty sure I'm smarter. Thinking you're the smartest guy in the world is a classic sign of a above average, but not exceptional intellect.

Yes, well, that's our MGL.
   13. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 16, 2014 at 11:54 AM (#4751907)
I'm the 173rd smartest person in the world. I did the math.
   14. mathesond Posted: July 16, 2014 at 01:06 PM (#4751990)
I'm the 173rd smartest person in the world.


Nice. I'm lucky if I'm the 173rd smartest person in the room.
   15. SouthSideRyan Posted: July 16, 2014 at 01:59 PM (#4752071)
You just need to hang out in smaller rooms
   16. Leroy Kincaid Posted: July 16, 2014 at 08:09 PM (#4752381)
Even if you're smarter than most people in the world there are still a few billion who've got you beat.

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