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Saturday, October 08, 2011

MGL: Worst Managing Ever?

Many of you know how much I hate TLR’s in-game managing.  I think he is atrocious and today he did not disappoint.  I said before the game started to my son and someone I know in the Cards front office that Tony would do something dumb just to show how “smart” he is.  It didn’t take long.  Even before the game, he inserted Nick Punto into the lineup in place of John Jay. Now Punto is probably the better defender than Schumaker at second, but Punto has no bat whatsoever.  My sim estimated that that cost the Cards around 1.5% in WE.

Something dumb to show how smart he is.

Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: October 08, 2011 at 05:59 AM | 219 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: baseball geeks, cardinals, phillies, sabermetrics

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   201. cardsfanboy Posted: October 11, 2011 at 04:03 AM (#3959166)
seriously, any hall of fame that includes whiney herzog is clearly worthy of TLR... I mean we are talking about a manager who literally quit on his hand picked team and ####### that it was managements fault and yet a guy who leads the Cardinals, with the third best payroll in the national league into the cellar, is a hofer, yet somehow TLR isn't. You are ####### legally retarded or a republican(I can't tell the difference) if you think Whiney Hezrog is more deserving of a hof spot than TLR.
   202. cardsfanboy Posted: October 11, 2011 at 04:11 AM (#3959177)
What I find funny is that most of the people on this thread would go out of their way to find fault with TLR and would be willingly as moronic as Something other if they thought it was a mathematical logical argument....but the fact that, contrary to something others's claims, that people who do not like TLR, are stating that TLR is without a doubt a worthy hofer. There isn't a manager in the game today who is better(and at no point in history has there ever been a manager for the twins remotely on par with tlr)

Basically TLR has led three teams to perform well for multiple seasons. The list of managers who can make that claim is pretty much non-existent.
   203. base ball chick Posted: October 11, 2011 at 04:29 AM (#3959185)
finally finished reading the rest of this thread from where i had left off

best i understand, the grousing about TLR is how his As teams lost the 88 and 90 series to much worse teams

but how is the guys in his lineup not hitting TLR's fault? i mean, eck giving up a homer to gibson is TLR's fault? if he managed lousy, what did he do?

and when i was talking about that SOB winning - i was talking about his st looie days, really. i remember the early As teams only because of rickey - i am definitely a rickey guy - i mean, grrrrl

i watched every minute of the 04 series and TLR didn't mismanage - the guys in the lineup/pitchers just laid down. you wanna see mismanage - you look at phil garner in the 05 series. or the 04 playoffs (and he wasn't near as bad as he was in 05)

as for the complaint that he got the bullpen one inning at a time/closer/LOOGY thing going - yeah, i don't really LIKE it neither. but if he hadn't started it someone else would have. and i hate it as much as you do and i like the running game too without the clank lee types
   204. Jim Kaat on a hot Gene Roof Posted: October 11, 2011 at 05:42 AM (#3959193)
seriously, any hall of fame that includes whiney herzog is clearly worthy of TLR... I mean we are talking about a manager who literally quit on his hand picked team and ####### that it was managements fault and yet a guy who leads the Cardinals, with the third best payroll in the national league into the cellar, is a hofer, yet somehow TLR isn't. You are ####### legally retarded or a republican(I can't tell the difference) if you think Whiney Hezrog is more deserving of a hof spot than TLR.


Now I remember that there are Cardinals fans on this site who make me embarrassed to be a Cardinals fan. Intelligence? If IQ means anything, IIRC the US Army said Herzog's was in the high 140s. Character? Herzog benched, traded, or released his dopeheads; TLR covered and continues to cover for his. Innovation? "Whiteyball" means something; if "LaRussaball" meant anything it would just be "be an ####### and change your pitchers often." Herzog ran out of gas but in his prime he was arguably the best evaluator of talent in the league. He, like TLR did well managing different teams in different leagues. As far as results, I'd say they are very close in value, but TLR has had a longer career. As far as character, taste, likability, etc. the edge goes to Herzog by far, as does IMO general peak value. Your habit of holding Herzog's last team's failure as an indictment of his entire career is like saying TLR's choke to the Reds in '90 totally subverts HIS career value; it's so plainly meshuggah it would be flattery to call it stupid.
   205. Howie Menckel Posted: October 11, 2011 at 05:57 AM (#3959195)
Don't care a whit about the Cardinals or Herzog, but never have I seen a manager influence a World Series more than the Denkinger series. Whitey seemed to get the whole team in an emotional frenzy off a mere leadoff single awful call in Game 6 while 3 outs away from a title, with a 1-game lead. And he maintained the loser mindset, it seemed, in Game 7.

He had a fascinating career, and I could accept a case made, I think, that in spite of that epic embarrassment that he deserved to get in.

But don't try to tell me he didn't #### the bed in that series late....
   206. Something Other Posted: October 11, 2011 at 06:46 AM (#3959208)
What I find funny is that most of the people on this thread would go out of their way to find fault with TLR and would be willingly as moronic as Something other if they thought it was a mathematical logical argument....but the fact that, contrary to something others's claims, that people who do not like TLR, are stating that TLR is without a doubt a worthy hofer. There isn't a manager in the game today who is better(and at no point in history has there ever been a manager for the twins remotely on par with tlr)

Basically TLR has led three teams to perform well for multiple seasons. The list of managers who can make that claim is pretty much non-existent.
It's a shame you've decided to be such an utter moron here. The paragraph is almost incomprehensible, but assuming you're from foreign soil I'll try to work with your gibberish.

but the fact that, contrary to something others's claims, that people who do not like TLR, are stating that TLR is without a doubt a worthy hofer.
Your fanboy kneeling makes no sense. Nothing like this occurred except in your fevered masturbatory imagination. I'm sorry you feel as though someone has urinated on your idol. When you grow up, reread the thread. Except for your "contributions" it's actually pretty interesting.

Basically TLR has led three teams to perform well for multiple seasons.
You're an idiot who wets the bed. Review LaRussa's Chicago stint. It was wholly unimpressive. I realize facts aren't your thing, but... please. One division title, no penant, three 5th place finishes, a sixth place finish, a .506 record. Tony! It's Cooperstown calling!

What would have been interesting, had you been capable of reasoned discussion, it as what point LaRussa became a HOF manager. See, that calls for an intelligent analysis of his career rather than the lunatic belief in private visions. His case probably is very, very dependent on Pujols, and the fact that the Cardinals keep salary around the upper bound for their division. I realize these simple sentences will send you into a frothing rage, but there it is. And there's nothing wrong with that--there are borderline HOFers who probably made it because they pulled down an MVP and did so because their teammates played well during a penant race. Every borderline case is interesting, and dependent on a lot of breaks. Sorry I can't agree with the hallucination that LaRussa was terrific in Chicago, and was a HOFer the moment he put on a White Sox cap. In truth, he probably wasn't a HOFer until the Cards won their second WS.
   207. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: October 11, 2011 at 07:19 AM (#3959211)
Cardinals fans: nicest fans in the world!
   208. Jim Kaat on a hot Gene Roof Posted: October 11, 2011 at 07:30 AM (#3959213)
Whitey seemed to get the whole team in an emotional frenzy off a mere leadoff single awful call in Game 6 while 3 outs away from a title, with a 1-game lead. And he maintained the loser mindset, it seemed, in Game 7.


Disagree. Herzog and everyone else on the better team were reacting independently but similarly to the instant, total, and annihilating momentum-shift caused by Denkinger's blown call that EVERYONE could feel.

More TLR vs Herzog things to consider is their (if reports of TLR's influence on Mozeliak's dealings are to be believed; I think Jocketty was his own man so I don't give TLR credit there) engineering of trades and free agent signings. Results are far from in but it would be hard for TLR (especially after causing Rasmus to be traded) to make up for Herzog getting Ozzie, Jack Clark, Sutter, Lonnie Smith (IIRC he didn't have much personally to do with the McGee acquisition). Yes, Herzog briefly held the actual title of general manager but TLR is supposedly de facto co-GM for the Cards since Jocketty left.

But then I suspect most of it is personal rather than principled because mgl's Aspie-like statements of absolute certitude mixed with witless sneering is par from the course from Szymborski and (especially) Voros, but when THOSE two do it the replies are uniformly masturbatory back-slappies.


Put differently, all you ppl who are so reasonably anti-mgl realize that he's basically aping in substance and especially in attitude the "classic" BP house style that most everyone here besides Malcolm, Emeigh, Dudek, RossCW, and Backlasher just OMG<3LUVVED, amirite?

Why I was designated a troll here from pretty much the get-go was because I reacted in kind to the vast majority of this site who took something good but went far too far with it, and were sneering ######## about it to boot. Back in the day, not only did nickels have pictures of bumblebees on them, but almost EVERYONE here either acted like mgl, or gave a masturbatory backslappy to some other jackass who was acting like mgl. Maybe I should buy mgl a shiny new pocket-protector for being so obnoxious that he's forced his virtual clones to look a bit in the mirror.
   209. SoSH U at work Posted: October 11, 2011 at 03:13 PM (#3959354)
You're an idiot who wets the bed. Review LaRussa's Chicago stint. It was wholly unimpressive. I realize facts aren't your thing, but... please. One division title, no penant, three 5th place finishes, a sixth place finish, a .506 record. Tony! It's Cooperstown calling!


That undersells things quite a bit. Not that Tony was making it clear he was Cooperstown-bound during his ChiSox stint, but he was establishing that he was a damn fine manager (it's not a coincidence that he was unemployed for about all of two weeks during the 1986 season). Weighing a manager's effectiveness against the rest of the league is only one part of it. How does he do against team expectations? The White Sox of that time frame were not a good organization. Under the managers who preceded and followed him in the five years* around TLR's stint (including the half-season guys both before and after), Chicago went .478. Against that record, Tony's .506 looks quite good.

An even bigger gap existed during his Oakland days. The A's around Tony's tenure were a .473 club, compared to his .542.

And the Cards? .496 vs. .544.

Now, obviously, this can't be seen as some absolute measure of a manager's abilities, as there are factors invovled (chief among them, Oakland had added a few talented homegrown players and it was a rare period of ownership willing to spend). Then again, it was in Oakland where TLR/Duncan did some of their most miraculous pitching reclamation work to supplement Mac, Jose and Rickey.

Tony cemented his Hall of Fame resume with his record in St. Louis. But his performance in both Chicago and Oakland should be viewed as evidence of his abilities as a quality skipper.

* I picked five years at random, though you could probably run it again with 3 or 8 if you thought those were more representative time frames.
   210. cardsfanboy Posted: October 11, 2011 at 07:33 PM (#3959581)
Herzog benched, traded, or released his dopeheads;


except covering up for the born again christian Porter who you know died with cocaine in his system, and was a known user before he came to the Cardinals.

Don't care a whit about the Cardinals or Herzog, but never have I seen a manager influence a World Series more than the Denkinger series. Whitey seemed to get the whole team in an emotional frenzy off a mere leadoff single awful call in Game 6 while 3 outs away from a title, with a 1-game lead. And he maintained the loser mindset, it seemed, in Game 7.


Whitey Herzog is the reason the Cardinals lost that series, not Denkinger, for exactly the reason you mentioned. The team didn't even show up for game seven. The Cardinals would have had a better chance putting random fans in the uniform and letting them play.

More TLR vs Herzog things to consider is their (if reports of TLR's influence on Mozeliak's dealings are to be believed; I think Jocketty was his own man so I don't give TLR credit there) engineering of trades and free agent signings. Results are far from in but it would be hard for TLR (especially after causing Rasmus to be traded) to make up for Herzog getting Ozzie, Jack Clark, Sutter, Lonnie Smith (IIRC he didn't have much personally to do with the McGee acquisition). Yes, Herzog briefly held the actual title of general manager but TLR is supposedly de facto co-GM for the Cards since Jocketty left


Considering that Whitey caused Van Slyke to get traded, I think that Whitey is currently losing this battle of quality young player traded because of a stubborn manager. TLR was instrumental in bringing McGwire to the team. But as you mentioned he doesn't get the credit/blame as Whitey because he isn't the GM, and really as a defacto GM, he just says what he would like to get or not get, but outside of maybe McGwire, Tino Martinez and that seems to be about it, so he's not really as big of a direct influence on the roster. He said he wanted another starting pitcher, a couple of relievers(hopefully a lefty) and get rid of Rasmus. He didn't say he wanted Jackson, Scrabble and Dotel, but he was instrumental in us getting them.
   211. BDC Posted: October 11, 2011 at 07:58 PM (#3959604)
he maintained the loser mindset

Without getting into what happened circa Denkinger, one thing that interested me about Whitey Herzog is that he didn't give a #### about the All-Star Game, was pretty open about it. In a span of 26 years, the NL went 22-4 in the ASG, one loss managed by Sparky Anderson and the other three by Herzog. (Endpoints chosen to make Whitey look bad, but still :)

Whitey liked to win, but he also liked to browbeat you with his ideas. If he got the idea that the All-Star Game was a waste of time, he would do his best to turn it into one.
   212. McCoy Posted: October 11, 2011 at 09:10 PM (#3959646)
Hardball times chimed in with their view on this subject. Marchi basically had to down to a coin flip as to whether a closer or a "hot" starter would be better in the 9th. Which, imo, if true means that one should go with the starting pitcher.

To rant a little bit. . . I've seen it a few times now on the Book blog where someone will basically disregard you or think they can ignore your point because you don't post the numbers. You gotta post the numbers. That would be an excellent guiding principle unfortunately it isn't applied to everyone. I mean this whole thing started because MGL didn't run the numbers and then people defended him and they did so without running the numbers. Then the numbers got run and instead of these people opening their mind and thinking about the problem they simply say stuff like the once all the numbers are run he'll still be right. Yet if you try to show why you think he won't still be right you get the whole GOTTA SHOW THE NUMBERS spiel.
   213. robinred Posted: October 11, 2011 at 09:43 PM (#3959665)
Whitey Herzog is the reason the Cardinals lost that series, not Denkinger, for exactly the reason you mentioned. The team didn't even show up for game seven.


I think the Royals had something to do with it as well.

Apparently LaRussa/Herzog is still an issue for some people in the StL fanbase; I have heard about fights over it and seen it here. Odd.
   214. bobm Posted: October 13, 2011 at 05:01 AM (#3961798)
[212] To rant a little bit. . . I've seen it a few times now on the Book blog where someone will basically disregard you or think they can ignore your point because you don't post the numbers. You gotta post the numbers. That would be an excellent guiding principle unfortunately it isn't applied to everyone. I mean this whole thing started because MGL didn't run the numbers and then people defended him and they did so without running the numbers. Then the numbers got run and instead of these people opening their mind and thinking about the problem they simply say stuff like the once all the numbers are run he'll still be right. Yet if you try to show why you think he won't still be right you get the whole GOTTA SHOW THE NUMBERS spiel.

"What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."
   215. cardsfanboy Posted: October 13, 2011 at 05:06 AM (#3961801)
I think the Royals had something to do with it as well.


sorry, didn't mean to disparage the Royals at all, actually I meant to mention them, but thought it would have made the paragraph too long. Yes the Royals won the 1985 world series, and it's utterly ridiculous to lay the lost on one play. In the end they showed up when it mattered.
   216. cardsfanboy Posted: October 13, 2011 at 05:09 AM (#3961804)
Apparently LaRussa/Herzog is still an issue for some people in the StL fanbase; I have heard about fights over it and seen it here. Odd.


Yep if you ask the majority of fans in St Louis who was the better manager, they'll always side with Whitey, they ignore the fact that he quit on the team in mid season(something that would get a player booed at, they pretty much accepted his cover story that he was burnt out and upset that the team wasn't configured to his specifications---when every single player on the roster had Whitey's stamp of approval..but he's the spinmaster, if he worked for the first Bush, he would have won a second term easily. Somehow he has magic fairy dust that doesn't allow people to see through his bs.
   217. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: November 01, 2011 at 03:45 AM (#3984004)
Yeah, LaRussa. What a chump.
   218. LionoftheSenate (Brewers v A's World Series) Posted: November 01, 2011 at 04:06 AM (#3984019)
*
   219. LionoftheSenate (Brewers v A's World Series) Posted: November 01, 2011 at 04:07 AM (#3984020)
At this point until Tony is caught napping or found dead in the dugout I think folks just need to shut the h*ll up.

The man has only won thousands of games. Do folks get that? The word 'thousands'?

Like, that's a LOT.


Harvey's wrote this and I think it pretty much sums up the thread.

The stat's community keeps shooting itself in the foot because elements overrate, way, way overrates its own ability. The overwhelming certitude of parts of the community is offensive. It also demonstrates a utter lack of doubt, in a subject matter that is incredibly hard to measure and probably impossible to measure what truly does lead to wins and what doesn't. This lack of doubt needs to be present in anyone seeking truth or wanting to show respect for science.

MGL is the kind of guy that repels me from the stat's crowd.
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