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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Miami Marlins concede no World Series in 2012, trade players but not typical fire sale - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

The latest Rosenthal.

Teams that use advanced statistical models incorporate a player’s defense and base running into their evaluations.

Put it all together, and the newest New York Yankee, outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, is still an above-average player — “a lot better than you think,” according to one rival executive.

Suzuki, the exec said, is only an average hitter at this point, maybe even a tick below. But he remains a terrific base runner and great defender, the exec added, compensating for his offensive decline.

The Yankees, one of the most aggressive teams in their use of statistical analysis, likely viewed Ichiro in that light.

In looking over some info about Ichiro, I noticed two things: 1) he’s having trouble with inside pitches, 2) he’s, as he always has been, an opposite field hitter. With that in mind, I doubt he’ll be able to take advantage of the change in ballpark as some might expect. So, although the Yankees didn’t really give up much for him, I don’t really expect to see him be much of an impact for them.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: marlins, rangers, red sox, tigers, yankees

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4190794)
So how will they refund the money to taxpayers?
   2. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4190801)
Teams that use advanced statistical models incorporate a player’s defense and base running into their evaluations.

Put it all together, and the newest New York Yankee, outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, is still an above-average player — “a lot better than you think,” according to one rival executive.


This time I don't buy it. If the stats are to be believed, Ichiro is having the second best defensive season of his career, as a 38 year old. According to BBREF WAR, he was -3 last year, -1 the year before, and 13 so far this year (on "pace" for about 22).
   3. MM1f Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4190818)
This time I don't buy it. If the stats are to be believed, Ichiro is having the second best defensive season of his career, as a 38 year old. According to BBREF WAR, he was -3 last year, -1 the year before, and 13 so far this year (on "pace" for about 22).


I think the assumption here is that teams have far better, proprietary defensive statistics systems than unless #### like dWAR.

Not that I think Ichiro is suddenly a much improved defender at 38 years old, more likely the Yankees (and other teams) think he was a good defender all along.
   4. Joey B. Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4190829)
So how will they refund the money to taxpayers?

I humbly suggest Two For One Tuesdays at the Clevelander.
   5. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4190841)
Hey, this is just another Ichiro thread masquerading as a Marlins thread!
   6. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4190843)
This is the longest the Marlins have gone without a World Series in franchise history.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4190855)
Put it all together, and the newest New York Yankee, outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, is still an above-average player — “a lot better than you think,” according to one rival executive.


So...why didn't you put together a trade proposal that was slightly better than the pieces of lint the Mariners received?
   8. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4190860)
My understanding is: Ichiro was ready to go, Seattle was willing to accomodate him, the return wasn't a major consideration in the deal.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4190867)
So...why didn't you put together a trade proposal that was slightly better than the pieces of lint the Mariners received?


Because they don't need an outfielder?
   10. zonk Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4190876)
The Fish are 'shopping' Heath Bell -- good luck with that one!
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4190884)

Because they don't need an outfielder?


Ichiro could play shortstop every day if he wanted to.
   12. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4190898)
Ichiro could be a lot better than you think, if he wanted to
   13. bfan Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4190912)
Suzuki, the exec said, is only an average hitter at this point, maybe even a tick below.


When you include this nonsense, it deprives the rest of what was said with any credibility. No wonder the guy won't go on record; he is clueless. Ichiro has an OPS+ this year of 82 (we are 2/3rds through the season). Last year it was 86. How is that in the universe of "an average hitter, or a tick below"? That would have to be one large fat, bloody tick to get to 82, from average.
   14. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: July 24, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4191038)
Ichiro is a singles hitter with an obp of .288. As far as his production this year with the Mariners is concerned, he was a starting outfielder and lead off hitter with the skill set of a late inning defensive replacement/ pinch runner. The Mariners are lucky to be rid of him and should consider themselves blessed because he ask for the trade, thereby saving the organization from pretending they wanted to resign him (or worse, giving in to fan base pressure and actually doing it). That being said, I can totally see a rejuvenated Ichiro! renaissance and a return to productive levels. I've never pulled for the Yankees before, but it would be nice to see him dousing Jeter with champagne and smiling ear to ear.
   15. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 24, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4191086)
If you give him credit for GIDP avoidance, his baserunning, and all around goodness, I could see how you could squint and tell yourself he was a tick below average as a "hitter". But then consider he is a corner OFer and its gone.

More accurate might be that if you give him credit for defense, baserunning and all that, he is a solid tick below average but still an acceptable major leaguer.
   16. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: July 24, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4191204)
Ichiro already has 10 GIDP this year, I doubt that's much above average.

Does anyone have a Cliff Notes version of why bref's oWAR and dWAR don't add to total WAR anymore?
   17. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 24, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4191209)
Um. I guess I should have looked up his GIDP numbers before assuming he still wasn't hitting into any.
   18. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: July 24, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4191287)
Ichiro already has 10 GIDP this year, I doubt that's much above average.


How is that calculated anyway? is it merely a function of how many DPs hit into vs opportunities, or does it also factor in ground balls hit in DP situations? Because Ichiro, batting leadoff for a team with a .291 OBP, has hit into 10 and is a +1, while Adam Dunn has hit into 4 and is a 0.
   19. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: July 24, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4191390)
How is that calculated anyway? is it merely a function of how many DPs hit into vs opportunities, or does it also factor in ground balls hit in DP situations?

Yes. I think AROM actually goes by fielded ground balls in GDP situations, with the rationale being that the ones that aren't turned into DPs are more likely to advance other runners than flyouts or strikeouts in the same situations. Whether the math works out perfectly on that, I don't know.
   20. BWV 1129 Posted: July 24, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4191430)
Does anyone have a Cliff Notes version of why bref's oWAR and dWAR don't add to total WAR anymore?

Both oWAR and dWAR include the positional adjustment, but the positional adjustment is only factored into the WAR total once.
   21. bookbook Posted: July 24, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4191482)
Ichiro's road OPS+ is actually 101. The home OPS+ hasn't caught up to the fact that Seattle's home stadium has become death to all hitters this year. Especially in a platoon role, he's going to look like a real asset to the Yanks this year. For me, this has the potential to be Tim Raines' golden Yankee goodbye, version 2.0.

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