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Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The latest Rosenthal.
Teams that use advanced statistical models incorporate a player’s defense and base running into their evaluations.
Put it all together, and the newest New York Yankee, outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, is still an above-average player — “a lot better than you think,” according to one rival executive.
Suzuki, the exec said, is only an average hitter at this point, maybe even a tick below. But he remains a terrific base runner and great defender, the exec added, compensating for his offensive decline.
The Yankees, one of the most aggressive teams in their use of statistical analysis, likely viewed Ichiro in that light.
In looking over some info about Ichiro, I noticed two things: 1) he’s having trouble with inside pitches, 2) he’s, as he always has been, an opposite field hitter. With that in mind, I doubt he’ll be able to take advantage of the change in ballpark as some might expect. So, although the Yankees didn’t really give up much for him, I don’t really expect to see him be much of an impact for them.
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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4190794)This time I don't buy it. If the stats are to be believed, Ichiro is having the second best defensive season of his career, as a 38 year old. According to BBREF WAR, he was -3 last year, -1 the year before, and 13 so far this year (on "pace" for about 22).
I think the assumption here is that teams have far better, proprietary defensive statistics systems than unless #### like dWAR.
Not that I think Ichiro is suddenly a much improved defender at 38 years old, more likely the Yankees (and other teams) think he was a good defender all along.
I humbly suggest Two For One Tuesdays at the Clevelander.
So...why didn't you put together a trade proposal that was slightly better than the pieces of lint the Mariners received?
Because they don't need an outfielder?
Ichiro could play shortstop every day if he wanted to.
When you include this nonsense, it deprives the rest of what was said with any credibility. No wonder the guy won't go on record; he is clueless. Ichiro has an OPS+ this year of 82 (we are 2/3rds through the season). Last year it was 86. How is that in the universe of "an average hitter, or a tick below"? That would have to be one large fat, bloody tick to get to 82, from average.
More accurate might be that if you give him credit for defense, baserunning and all that, he is a solid tick below average but still an acceptable major leaguer.
Does anyone have a Cliff Notes version of why bref's oWAR and dWAR don't add to total WAR anymore?
How is that calculated anyway? is it merely a function of how many DPs hit into vs opportunities, or does it also factor in ground balls hit in DP situations? Because Ichiro, batting leadoff for a team with a .291 OBP, has hit into 10 and is a +1, while Adam Dunn has hit into 4 and is a 0.
Yes. I think AROM actually goes by fielded ground balls in GDP situations, with the rationale being that the ones that aren't turned into DPs are more likely to advance other runners than flyouts or strikeouts in the same situations. Whether the math works out perfectly on that, I don't know.
Both oWAR and dWAR include the positional adjustment, but the positional adjustment is only factored into the WAR total once.
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