Owings PITCHED a pretty darn good game the other day. He was dealing, until Feliz ambushed him in the 7th with a 2 Run Homer into the bullpen to make it 3-3.

As much fun as it is to talk about his hitting, it's far more important that he has a Career 108 ERA+ in his first 196.3 IP.
He's been a bit lucky of course, (career .274 BABIP against). He's still only throwing his changeup 10% of the time, and his slider is still just so-so.

I'm not sure if Owings will be able to remain in the rotation past this year. We'll just have to see how the season plays out. Maybe he will end up being the ultimate bench player. They can have him pinch hit, use him as a reliever, and leave him in the game and put him at a position, such as LF or 1b when he's done pitching to keep his bat in the order. He would also be a great guy to bring in to relieve in the middle innings when the pitchers spot is coming up in the order , where a struggling starter might be left in too long so as not to burn a reliever. I wouldn't be surprised to see him evlolve into such a player that is used very creatively and in a very versatile manner like that. He will be a great weapon, however they use him.

Good hitting pitchers are the new market inefficiency!

Another pitcher who's a very good hitter is Greg Smith, former Dback and current A. The kid can rake, it's a shame he won't be getting many opportunities now.

And sign me up as being a very happy camper the Dbacks kept Micah and sent Ohlendorf and Jackson to the Yankees for Unito Grande, even if Ohlendorf becomes a solid reliever.

until Feliz ambushed him in the 7th with a 2 Run Homer into the bullpen to make it 3-3.

Don't you just hate it when a brain dead caribbean swings at non-slop?

I was talking about this the other day - how long until pitchers start pitching to Owens like he's a legitimate offensive threat, rather than like, well, a pitcher?

Sorry to break it to White Sox fans, but Owens will never be a legitimate offensive threat.

He's been a bit lucky of course, (career .274 BABIP against).

Owings is a flyball pitcher; fewer than 40% of his BIP are on the ground. You would expect him to have a relatively low in-play BA - and he does.

-- MWE

Dammit. I meant Owings, of course.

And sign me up as being a very happy camper the Dbacks kept Micah and sent Ohlendorf and Jackson to the Yankees for Unito Grande, even if Ohlendorf becomes a solid reliever.

Hey, I can play another round of my favorite game: Who Won That Second Yankee-D-Back Randy Johnson Trade?

2007 Win Shares
Randy Johnson: 4
Alberto Gonzalez: 0
Luis Vizcaino: 6
Ross Ohlendorf: 0

2008 Win Shares
Randy Johnson: 0
Alberto Gonzalez: 1
Ross Ohlendorf: 0

Total
Yankees: 7 (plus a comp pick for The Viz)
Arizona: 4

Be sure to tune in again soon for another round of Who Won That Second Yankee-D-Back Randy Johnson Trade? because things could literally change at any time.

If anyone feels like digging up old threads, I remember being insulted a few years ago for defending Owings' candidacy as a pitching prospect. I think I called him a grade "B+" or something back when he had a mediocre ERA in the PCL and that incited a riot. And, it's true - he could never match Tyler Clippard's strikeout rate...

Not to say Ohlendorf is better than Owings, he's not, but he's pitched much better than his ERA suggests and he's probably going to turn into a pretty good setup man for the Yanks. Gonz's glove looks legit too. I'm pretty happy with the guys we got in that trade, even if Owings would have been better. I'm also glad Owings stayed in the NL so he could hit, although the Yanks could probably use him at 1st.

And, it's true - he could never match Tyler Clippard's strikeout rate...

I hope to God that wasn't me.

I was talking about this the other day - how long until pitchers start pitching to Owens like he's a legitimate offensive threat, rather than like, well, a pitcher?

They already have. John Maine pitched him VERY carefully, walking him twice. The 2nd at bat was a 12 pitch at bat!

RB, this really has nothing to do with what RJ will ever do in a Dbacks uniform. It has everything to do with who would have had the higher value to AZ, Owings or Ohlendorf/Jackson/Gonzalez. Your favorite game is great but it completely misses the point.

Ohlendorf may do funny things on the mound, Mr. RB, but he's not a comedian.

He's been a bit lucky of course, (career .274 BABIP against).


Owings is a flyball pitcher; fewer than 40% of his BIP are on the ground. You would expect him to have a relatively low in-play BA - and he does.

-- MWE

I agree MWE. This entire BABIP suject was introduced inproperly to the baseball community. Now you have fans and fantasy baseball writers (whatever that means) citing BABIP as luck anytime it is above or below .300.

Enough.

Your favorite game is great but it completely misses the point.

Well, I think we have a winner for one statement single-handedly summing up my posting style.

You're right of course, your post just honestly brought that to my mind, because I'm geniunely curious about who will emerge with the better end of that deal, it's pretty clearly a trade that can go either way.

RB, the Big Unit will have to post some monster numbers this year to justify that trade.

RB, the Big Unit will have to post some monster numbers this year to justify that trade.

Or just win 1 decisive playoff game.

Through his first 75 MLB ABs, Rudy Pemberton had a .451 OBP and .613 SLG (1.064 OPS).
Through his first 79 MLB ABs, Kevin Maas had a .398 OBP and .694 SLG (1.082 OPS).

I agree MWE. This entire BABIP suject was introduced inproperly to the baseball community. Now you have fans and fantasy baseball writers (whatever that means) citing BABIP as luck anytime it is above or below .300.

Enough.

The self important, condescending tone of these comments you've been making Beano is stunning, even for this site.

"Enough" ????? Are you a moderator here?

Furthermore, your generalization and categorizing of my comments as "citing BABIP as luck anytime it is above or below .300." is a strawman and intellectually dishonest. Thats certainly not what I am saying. I'm talking about Micah Owings, not any other pitcher. I've watched every inning he's pitched in the majors. I think he's been a bit lucky to have a 108 ERA+. I cited one piece of data that would support that, even if not ultimately prove it. If you want to then jump on some kind of crusade, thats your business.......but you are trying to portray something that isn't.


I don't think a little over or under .300 constitutes luck. But I do look at the extremes.


This all started when MWE started in with me for "not understanding" BABIP because I put forth the idea that Mark Reynolds .378 BABIP last year was not sustainable. Never mind that there are only 3 hitters in all of baseball that have managed 2 or more straight seasons over .345 BABIP for any of the last 3 seasons, (Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter, and Michael Young). But I'm the jackass that has no clue. Right.

Never mind that 5 of the top 10, and 12 of the top 20 pitchers in MLB in DER have GB rates over 40% so far in 2008.
Or for 2007, 11 of the top 20 in DER had GB Rates over 40% .


Because MWE has now told me that since Owings doesn't have a 40% GB rate I have to expect him to have a higher than avg DER.

Seriously....you guys do not have a monopoly on baseball understanding, so stop the condescending crap, and don't tell me when it's "enough".

Through his first 75 MLB ABs, Rudy Pemberton had a .451 OBP and .613 SLG (1.064 OPS).
Through his first 79 MLB ABs, Kevin Maas had a .398 OBP and .694 SLG (1.082 OPS).

Bah, Shane Spencer had an 1.310 OPS through his first 75 ABs.

Data from baseball reference's 2007 MLB splits, Sean has results for fb, gb, and ld, though looks like he's got infield popups grouped in with flyballs.

If you hold the line drive rate constant at 20%, and apply the league average for each hit type to a pitcher's mix of hit types allowed, I get:

GB% BABIP
70 .330
60 .320
50 .309
45 .304 (about average)
40 .299
35 .293
30 .288
20 .278
15 .272

So if Owings is getting 15% groundouts to 65% flyballs, his BABIP is in line. But I don't think I'd recommend that considering where he pitches.

Fun game...

Jose Oliva had a .373 OBP and .731 SLG (1.105 OPS) through his first 75 plate appearances.

Fred Lynn: .494 OBP, .707 SLG (1.201 OPS) through his first 75 ABs. (Sorry, I just noticed that Micah Owings's numbers were through PAs and I've been doing ABs. My bad).

Jeff Francoeur hit .403/.410/.818 for a 1.228 OPS in his first 78 PAs.

Of course, the difference with Owings is that it's been over a year since his first major league at bat, whereas these guys we're comparing him with all had hot starts that lasted a month or so.

Thats a great point Kyle.

I doubt there are many serious fans that really feel that Owings current rate stats are a reflection of his true talent level as a hitter. But it's fun to talk about while the numbers are still up there.

I have seen both hit and Yovani Gallardo ain't too shabby.

Once Yovani is healthy they should have a hitting/pitch-off.

In talking about hot starts, let's not forget Bo Hart.

Check out the splits by month.

Not to say Ohlendorf is better than Owings, he's not, but he's pitched much better than his ERA suggests and he's probably going to turn into a pretty good setup man for the Yanks. Gonz's glove looks legit too. I'm pretty happy with the guys we got in that trade, even if Owings would have been better.

Also, they got TWO draft picks when some team signed Vizcaino for some reason this off-season!

So if Owings is getting 15% groundouts to 65% flyballs, his BABIP is in line. But I don't think I'd recommend that considering where he pitches.

Well, he has a career 37% GB Rate, and 43 % FB rate....so according to your data, the over/under on BABIP would be somewhere between .293-.299?

Eh...he has a really fast outfield....so he is going to benefit from that. But even taking that into account......274 is lower than expected. BTW, for this year so far, it's only .252

Really this just helps to illustrate my point. I've talked about a couple of guys that are at EXTREMES when it comes to their balls in play profiles, and get hammered as if I were splitting hairs over just above or below .300. If it weren't coming from people that I have a lot of respect for, I wouldn't give it two thoughts.

2008 Win Shares
Randy Johnson: 0
Alberto Gonzalez: 1
Ross Ohlendorf: 0

Didn't Alberto Gonzalez resign after the 2007 season?

Owings current BABIP against: .313 for 2008, career to date, .291

Owings is a flyball pitcher; fewer than 40% of his BIP are on the ground. You would expect him to have a relatively low in-play BA - and he does.

hmmmmm........