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Thursday, January 12, 2012

Michael Kay Bets NYBD on Mets Win Total

Winner gets a vintage Kay/Silvatone Guitar!

Earlier today I called out Michael Kay for his statement regarding the Mets winning between 55-60 games this coming season.

Kay has taken to Twitter this week and done a great job interacting with fans.

Kay responded to my post about his statement asking me how many wins I see for the Mets.

Okay, mike, you’re so objective, how many will try win? Honestly. If I’m the shill, tell me how many they will win in your unbiased opinion.Thu Jan 12 18:05:29 via Twitter for iPhoneMichael Kay
RealMichaelKay

I responded that 77-81 is not out of the question. Regardless, they won’t be near the 55 to 60 games he predicted.

So here is our bet :

@NYBD you’re right, mike, they’re never devastated by injuries. What was I thinking? Betcha my 55 to 60 is closer than your 77 to 81.Thu Jan 12 19:34:04 via Twitter for iPhoneMichael Kay
RealMichaelKay

...Looks like the Mets are going to need to win more than 68 games for me to prevail.

Repoz Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:00 PM | 98 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: announcers, media, mets, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 12, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4035755)
Let's see...they went 77-85 last year, with the Pythag at 79-83. Their two most valuable players by WAR--Reyes and Beltran--are gone. But you have to figure they get more out of Wright and a couple of other guys (Davis, for example). I would guess Silva wins the bet, but I can't see them getting close to .500.
   2. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 12, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4035760)
I think a complete train wreck 100 loss team might be better to watch than another 72-77 win team.
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: January 12, 2012 at 10:12 PM (#4035765)
I think a complete train wreck 100 loss team might be better to watch than another 72-77 win team.


My hatred of all that is New York agrees.
   4. Something Other Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4035806)
Lessee...

Tejada
Bay
Wright
Davis
Duda
Torres
Turner
Thole/Nickeas

What's the over under on HRs? 85?

Santana (?)
Dickey
Pelfrey
Niese (if he's not traded)
Gee

Francisco
Rauch
Ramon Ramirez
Parnell
Acosta
Byrdak
Beato?

Bench

Murphy's ACL
Ronny Cedeno
?
?

Urgh. I can see this going... not well. What we might be forgetting is that even with the injuries, the Mets got good years from Thole, Tejada, and Duda. Certainly as good as we could have expected. Davis was great when he played. Murphy was great when he played. Beltran is gone, but he and Reyes gave the Mets as much as anyone could have asked. Pagan wasn't good, but I think he has more upside than Torres.

Who the frak is going to play a corner OF if Bay gets even worse--Daniel Murphy? Every team has to play their fourth and fifth OFers contemporaneously from time to time. That's going to be brutal. Sure, Wright and Davis were injured, but everyone else was healthy, and the Mets got 157 starts out of their five best starters. Imagine this season if they only get from their top five what most teams get. Imagine if they have bad luck with injuries throughout the roster.

Over-under?

Davis and Wright better. Thole, Turner, Murphy, Duda, Bay, Tejada a little worse, overall.
Capuano gone. Santana better, but pitching less. Some injuries in the rotation, so 40 starts due from guys not even on the roster.

Bullpen about the same (Francisco and Ramirez making up for FRod and Izzy. Rauch useless. Byrdak a little worse, Parnell a little better). All in all a little worse than last year. Maybe. It'll be pretty close in any case.

Oh, and two HOF seasons in Beltran and Reyes gone. Crap.

70 wins, just because I didn't want to write 68.

edit: not because the author thought 68, just because it crosses that line to a lower-lower-middle class neighborhood, like building your houses on Connecticut Avenue in Monopoly rather than [name of one of those purple streets right around the corner].


edit: if I may, the underline function instead italicizes. When I click "edit" I go to the bottom of the page.
   5. Repoz Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4035817)
I'd like to say this is similar to 2008 when Francesspool gassed out "Mark it down...the Tampa Bay Rays will not win 55 games this season!" (they won 97)

But it's not.
   6. Something Other Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4035818)
Well, he wuz right, no?
   7. Sam M. Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4035847)
Um . . . I hate to say it, but I'm not seeing how this team (realistically) gets to 70 wins. Sure, the upside is higher than that -- if Wright recaptures some version of 2006-07, and Ike Davis stays healthy and takes a major step forward, and Johan comes back as Johan for some big part of 120 innings . . . . But realistically? I'd take the under on 68.

Think about the basic core of the everyday line-up: it's mostly comprised of the young players they've developed and brought onto the major league roster in the last couple of seasons: Thole, Davis, Tejada, Duda. Maybe Murphy at 2B, too. It's great, to a degree, that they've developed young players, and given them an opportunity, but they all strike me (perhaps with one exception) as having the upside of being complementary players at best. Think about Josh Thole -- what's he going to be, the sixth-best position player on a good team? Maybe he could be fifth-best if the top four are Beltran/Wright/Delgado/Reyes all at their 2006 levels. Tejada isn't going to be a top player on a contender, and neither is Duda. The exception might be Ike Davis, if everything goes right; he could be a top three player on a contender . . . if that team has a really great top two, and a balanced rest of the line-up in which Davis happens to be the third-best. It's nice to have brought along some at-least-decent-young-talent, and giving that talent a chance to play, but a team stocked with those guys isn't going to win 70 games.

And the same is true on the pitching side. Pelfrey is what he is. Dickey and Gee are nice pitchers, but neither is dominant. Niese has the peripherals and might break through to be the best on this staff, but how much does it mean to be the best on this staff -- and even if he's every good, how much is he going to win backed up by a weak line-up? If anyone wants to count on Johan to be the savior (see above), be my guest, but would any of you want to take the "over" getting the equivalent value of 100 innings of league-average pitching from him right now?

If you gave me my choice of 60, 65, 70, 75, or 80 wins as my prediction for the Mets, as the roster stands right now, I wouldn't hesitate much before I'd pick 65. And to be honest, if you gave me the choice of the Mets winning 80 games, or the Wilpons announcing a sale of the team, I'd take 65-97 in a heartbeat.
   8. Tuque Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4035851)
My hatred of all that is New York agrees.

How do you hate a city? I can understand hating a place or entity within a city - Wall Street, or the Yankees - but hating a city in general is just weird. I may not have any desire to live in, for example, Boise, but it's not like I reflexively spew bile at anything Boise-related.
   9. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:12 AM (#4035890)
I'd like to say this is similar to 2008 when Francesspool gassed out "Mark it down...the Tampa Bay Rays will not win 55 games this season!" (they won 97)


55 != 97 QED
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:17 AM (#4035893)
I don't really hate a city, I hate New York's excessive influence on the rest of real America. I do hate the Mess and the Yankees, out of spite, one is a good team, the other is the Mess. then you have the same thing with their two football teams, neither of which is worth a crap and yet both of them chew up a crapload of media space(I mean, seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good(definition of good is top ten in the league) but yet we hear about them all the time. Jeter has won 5 undeserved gold gloves, and you think the excessive media play hasn't factored into that? heck this website, just linked an article in which a a decent major leaguer(a clear step below Dale Murphy) son got signed by the Yankees. really how is that news of any sort? Oh wait, it's because it's New York.

I mean, it's funny to watch tv shows in which unrealistic things happen. I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence(or the upper hollywood influence, which is really just east coasters wishing they were cool enough to be New Yorkers)
   11. Tuque Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:29 AM (#4035896)
I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence


Okay, I'm not going to go into your other complaints, but this is just insane to me. Seriously? You've never had anything else? Is this really normal? Has anybody else here experienced the same thing?
   12. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:53 AM (#4035899)
I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian...

Seriously, cardsfanboy, where do you live? I grew up in rural Michigan, which I'm pretty sure counts as "real America," and I know plenty of people there who love sushi and Indian food, though they have to drive all the way to Lansing or Grand Rapids to get them.

Or did my sarcasm detector blow a fuse?
   13. Something Other Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:18 AM (#4035902)
I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence

Okay, I'm not going to go into your other complaints, but this is just insane to me. Seriously? You've never had anything else? Is this really normal? Has anybody else here experienced the same thing?
I'm taking my niece to an Indian restaurant tomorrow night. Tuesday night I went grocery shopping, bought sushi at the prepared food counter, and ate it while driving home.

So, I guess that's a no.

edit: and real people who have never been within 500 miles of NY looooove Chinese food.
   14. Bhaakon Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:28 AM (#4035911)
edit: and real people who have never been within 500 miles of NY looooove Chinese food.


Most of them have never actually eaten Chinese food, though.
   15. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:47 AM (#4035914)
How do you hate a city? I can understand hating a place or entity within a city - Wall Street, or the Yankees - but hating a city in general is just weird.

I see you've never been to Winnipeg.
   16. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:52 AM (#4035916)
I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian...

Man, where do you live?

I used to order Indian food to the house all the time, and that was when I lived in Regina, Saskatchewan. (of course it was Regina, so it was pretty much just butter chicken, tikka masala, lamb vindaloo, and some pakoras, but I think that's still at least somewhat legit)
It's only since then that I've developed a taste for sushi (to be more accurate I guess it's wasabi I like, the sushi is just a fine carrier for it), but sushi was quite popular in that massive metropolis of 200,000 a few hours north of North Dakota.

Pesonally I don't much like New York either, because of the teams, and because I'm not a fan of big cities, of which New York seems to be the poster child. But that just seems crazy. (And I hope I don't come off as a dick here, I actually am genuinely curious where you're living that it has no indian food)
   17. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:45 AM (#4035921)
How do you hate a city? I can understand hating a place or entity within a city - Wall Street, or the Yankees - but hating a city in general is just weird.

I see you've never been to Winnipeg.


LOVE the weakerthans reference. nicely done sir.
   18. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:49 AM (#4035922)
LOVE the weakerthans reference. nicely done sir.

If we're doing Joel Plaskett we could go with Kelowna.

My love for the Weakerthans is the one thing preventing me from ACTUALLY hating Winnipeg. Though that has more to do with personal experience than any inherent fault in the city itself.
   19. Lassus Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:58 AM (#4035923)
Optimism day!

68 wins - I win, 67 wins - I lose, Sam.

71 wins - I win, 70 wins - I lose, something other.

No more than a $25 bbref each. Are one or both of you in?


(I know I have a standing Ollie Pete bet. No one has come to collect!)
   20. Swoboda is freedom Posted: January 13, 2012 at 08:22 AM (#4035925)
seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good(definition of good is top ten in the league)

I think Eli Manning is top ten, but just around 8-10th. Sanchez is not good. He has played well in the playoffs, so got the winner label.
   21. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 13, 2012 at 08:41 AM (#4035930)
seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good

Manning is actually good. Is there anyone inside of New York who thinks Sanchez is good? I hope not.

And I'd like to point out the football teams play in New Jersey.
   22. Sam M. Posted: January 13, 2012 at 09:09 AM (#4035938)
No bet, Lassus. I am very pessimistic about the level of talent on hand for 2012, but fearing/believing it's gonna be bad is completely fifferent from having a rooting interest in them losing 90-some games. I'd never bet on the Mets to be awful, even when that's what I see.
   23. Conor Posted: January 13, 2012 at 09:41 AM (#4035949)
Eli is really good now. Is he as good as Rodgers, Brady, Brees? Of course not. But he finished 6th in Footballoutsiders DYAR, and 8th in DVOA. I think he is easily within the top 10 in the league, and he may be closer to 5 than 10. Who are the 10 guys better than him? (I also think he should be extra credit for never missing a start).

Edit: At this point, I don't think anyone in NY thinks Sanchez is good either.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:05 AM (#4035964)
Eli is really good now. Is he as good as Rodgers, Brady, Brees? Of course not. But he finished 6th in Footballoutsiders DYAR, and 8th in DVOA. I think he is easily within the top 10 in the league, and he may be closer to 5 than 10. Who are the 10 guys better than him? (I also think he should be extra credit for never missing a start).

I don't think there's anybody other than those three I'd take over Eli right now. He's top-5.
   25. Lassus Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:06 AM (#4035966)
Fair enough, Sam. I admit I didn't think about that part. I don't think you need to have a rooting interest, though. Some Met somewhere on bbref will win. ;-)
   26. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4035969)
Winner gets a vintage Kay/Silvatone Guitar!


I have a 1954 National, but the body was made by Kay.

CFB must be stuck in 1950 somewhere, I live in (near) a city of about 75k that is over 90% white, and we have authentic Indian, Japanese, Greek, Caribbean, Korean, and Mexican restaurants. That's not to say they are all great restaurants, but they are run by ethnic people at least.
   27. Elvis Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:22 AM (#4035976)
It's great, to a degree, that they've developed young players, and given them an opportunity, but they all strike me (perhaps with one exception) as having the upside of being complementary players at best.


I don't disagree too much with this statement but I don't get how that flows to a team that challenges for 100 losses. You say complementary players - I say league average. If your offense is filled with league average players, the pitching would have to be a complete disaster to finish with 95+ losses.

Now, I'm not saying the pitching is good - not by a large margin. But I feel pretty confident that Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey are going to be legitimate MLB pitchers. While Gee is likely to be replacement level, you have to figure Santana or whoever else fills out the rotation will be just as bad, plus some of the first three to miss significant time to get in the neighborhood of that many losses.

Given the Mets recent injury history, I wouldn't rule that out. But I think you have to project bad health from three of the projected starters to get there.

Back to the hitters, here are the OPS projections for the starters from Bill James:

Thole - .722
Davis - .881
Murphy - .811
Wright - .862
Tejada - .656
Bay - .791
Torres - .737
Duda - .852

Meanwhile, here were the OPS numbers for the starters on the 1993 Mets, the last team in franchise history to lose 100 games:

Hundley - .626
Murray - .792
Kent - .765
Bogar - .652
HoJo - .732
Coleman - .691
Thompson - .747
Bonilla - .874

The average NL team scored 4.43 rpg in 1993, likely higher than what we'll see in 2012.

Yes, the James projections are "optimstic" and some of the players won't come close to these forecasts. Regardless, the 2012 offense will be way better than the 1993 offense and it's unlikely the 2012 Mets will have a pitcher with a 68 ERA+ make 18 starts (Schourek) and have another pitcher go 1-16 (Young) like the '93 club did.

   28. Blastin Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4035982)
It's one thing not to like Indian/Sushi, but to not know anyone who's had it? And what is "real food" to you? What the what? What?

So much wtf?

About hating NY, eh, I get it. I can't stand LA because of its utter lack of public transport (I can drive just fine, but I don't much enjoy it). But I will spend time there to see friends who live there.
   29. Elvis Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4035999)
I live in NC, in a town with an estimated 50,000 people, 75% white. Our largest minority is Latino and we have many different Mexican restaurants staffed with non-whites. We also have three different Asian places, all staffed with non-whites. We also have a Greek restaurant. The owners are Greek, but the non-relative employees are white.
   30. zack Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4036011)
I'm a Mets fan, I'm more than likely moving to NYC in 6 months, and even I hate NY so I totally get that. It's like the Toronto of America.

But a life without Thai food -- I weep for you and your friends, CFB.
   31. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4036027)

I don't think there's anybody other than those three I'd take over Eli right now.


Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Manning Senior, Rivers for sure. Then Stafford, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Romo, Newton. I'm pretty comfortable with all of those above Eli.

He certainly had a good year last year. Still, his career numbers are eerily like those of Elvis Grbac.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4036041)
here are the OPS projections for the starters from Bill James:

Don't ever use Bill James projections. His offensive levels don't match his pitching levels. The hitting #'s are always wildly optimistic.
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4036044)
Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Manning Senior, Rivers for sure. Then Stafford, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Romo, Newton. I'm pretty comfortable with all of those above Eli.

He certainly had a good year last year. Still, his career numbers are eerily like those of Elvis Grbac.


Really? That's crazy talk to me.

We don't know if Peyton Manning will ever throw a ball again. What have Rivers, Stafford, Ryan, Romo and Newton ever done to make you think they're elite?

Football doesn't work like baseball. Stats are completely team and context dependent. Lot's of guys can put up gaudy stats b/c of system and situation.

Edit: Classic example, Matt Cassel looked like a great QB when he got to play for NE.

Eli had his phenomenal year with no running game, and an O-line in complete disarray.
   34. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4036053)
I'm a Mets fan, I'm more than likely moving to NYC in 6 months, and even I hate NY so I totally get that. It's like the Toronto of America.

Or the Paris of France, the London of England and so on.
Any nation that has a "#1 City" (whether by size, population, financial/cultural/commercial influence) is going to have that dynamic.

I say that as someone who "hates" New York as well. Though I don't hate Toronto in the same way (probably because I was born and raised there). But I fully understand people who feel that way about Toronto. (and I know quite a few of them from having lived in other parts of Canada for years) I would never begrudge them that self-indulgence either since I do the exact same thing with New York, and somewhat with Paris as well.

I'm not sure how the describe the dynamic exactly. Inferiority complex seems pretty patronizing/insulting.
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4036060)
I would never begrudge them that self-indulgence either since I do the exact same thing with New York, and somewhat with Paris as well.

There are people that hate Paris? WTF?
   36. zack Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4036089)
I'm not sure how the describe the dynamic exactly. Inferiority complex seems pretty patronizing/insulting.


Antireverseprovincialism. One of those things ze Germans probably have a great word for.
   37. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4036094)
There are people that hate Paris? WTF?

Large swaths of Frenchman for starters.

My dislike of Paris is entirely irrational however. Both times I've been there it's been at the tail end of month+ long tours of Europe at which point I was spent and so did not enjoy it much. Also I'm not much of a fan of large cities. And I find it mildly annoying that large numbers of people seem to love Paris without ever having been there.

I'm not particularly proud of those reasons for my dislike, just like I think my hatred of New York says more about me than it does New York...but there it is.
   38. Elvis Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4036107)
Don't ever use Bill James projections. His offensive levels don't match his pitching levelsThe hitting #'s are always wildly optimistic. 


Well, I'm sure there's some validity to this criticism. I'm not too worried about it because I'm not looking at all of MLB or a significant portion, like making projections for a fantasy league. I'm looking at a subset of 1/30 of the players in MLB. Let's check to see how the Bill James projections did with last year. The Bill James projection will be listed first and the actual in brackets.

Thole - .737 (.690) - .722
Davis - .862 (.925)- .789
Murphy - .794 (.809)- .764
Wright - .890 (.771)- .842
Reyes - .771 (.877)- .776
Bay - .840 (.703)- .804
Pagan - .764 (.694)- .750
Beltran - .847 (.904)- .801

The final number is the ZiPS projection. On the players that they disagreed on (OPS difference of .020 or more) - ZiPS had a better projection for Wright and Bay while James was better on Davis (only 149 PA), Murphy and Beltran.

My main concern is that the comparison was used with a systematic approach. I used Bill James because they were available on the FG player page without having me to add up SLG/OBP. If you did that for ZiPS, you'd get lower numbers than the James but the point would still be the same - the 2012 Mets offense projects better than the 1993 one.
   39. Randy Jones Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4036126)
There are people that hate Paris? WTF?


Well, it is filled with French people, so that is a pretty poor start.
   40. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4036137)
Or did my sarcasm detector blow a fuse?

Cardafanboy doesn't do sarcasm. Just baseless, aimless, repetitive rants. I can actually taste the bile when I read his moronic comments.
   41. Blastin Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4036143)
I think I dislike LA and similar places based on what they represent: just wide unchecked sprawl. But then, I'm very much a subway-riding type. So it does say as much about me as it does about the place.

I might feel differently at age 45 and move. But, my dad is 67 and still lives in Manhattan, so...

(Technically, NY's metro area is larger than LA's, and has many more people, but hopping the Metro-North/NJ Trans/LIRR/Path and reading a magazine doesn't bother me nearly as much as driving 90 mins.)
   42. Conor Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4036146)
Yeah, I don't know how anyone could put Peyton ahead of Eli right now. If he's anywhere close to the QB he was before, then sure, but if you could have either guy quarterbacking your team next year, you'd take Peyton over Eli? (If you had to make the decision right now).

I would take Eli over Ryan in a heartbeat. Ryan played 12 games indoors this year, Eli played 3.

Rivers I would've agreed with you on before this year, but he had his worst year and Eli his best year this year. Still might side with Rivers.

I would take Eli over Ryan in a heartbeat. Ryan played 12 games indoors this year, Eli played 3, and I don't see why Ryan did that was more impressive anyway.
Stafford? Guy has played one healthy year. It was a great year, but Eli threw for more yards per pass, pretty significantly (8.38 to 7.6), I can't find the net numbers, but Eli didn't take a lot of sacks, so I'm guessing he's still going to be ahead of him there. And I count 11 dome games for Stafford.

Not going to go through all of the guys. The big 3 are the only guys I would definitely take over Eli. I think guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger are in Eli's class.

Eli is really good; as Snapper points out, they haven't been able to run the ball, and I don't think the Oline has been all that great pass protecting, but he doesn't take sacks. (6th in the league in adjusted sack rate). He pretty clearly became a better QB during that super bowl run, he went from a 57% completion rate to over 60%, and he's stayed there every year, with more yards per pass.
   43. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4036153)
I'm not too worried about it because I'm not looking at all of MLB or a significant portion, like making projections for a fantasy league. I'm looking at a subset of 1/30 of the players in MLB. Let's check to see how the Bill James projections did with last year. The Bill James projection will be listed first and the actual in brackets.

That's exactly why this criticism *does* matter. If you were looking at all of the players, they would all suffer from the same bias, and it wouldn't affect you. But since you're looking at a handful of projections in a vacuum (essentially comparing them to the offensive level you and the readers have in their heads), the projections are going to seem better than they really are.
   44. Daunte Vicknabbit! Posted: January 13, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4036186)
As regards Winnipeg, I have never myself voyaged there but I have two very conflicting data points established in my mind.

One is the group Venetian Snares, which makes terrible music my roommates used to listen to jokingly and has songs titled "Winnipeg is ####### Over" and "Winnipeg is a Frozen ########."

The other, however, is Guy Maddin's lovingly crafted "My Winnipeg", which makes it seem like a pretty cool place, at least if you're a native.
   45. JJ1986 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4036193)
Bench

Murphy's ACL
Ronny Cedeno
?
?


Scott Hairston is one. The other's going to be someone like Mike Baxter.
   46. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4036197)
The other, however, is Guy Maddin's lovingly crafted "My Winnipeg", which makes it seem like a pretty cool place, at least if you're a native.

Oddly enough this is one of my negative Winnipeg data points as the only things I know about Guy Maddin are what I gleaned from having drinks with his ex-wife once. It was not a happy divorce.

(in case it's not clear, my dislike of Winnipeg is mostly based on personal experience, irrational bias, and says more about me than the town)
   47. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4036218)
I mean, it's funny to watch tv shows in which unrealistic things happen. I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence(or the upper hollywood influence, which is really just east coasters wishing they were cool enough to be New Yorkers)

This is just crazy talk. I live in a midwestern suburb and I get Chinese food delivered all the time. My entire family has had Indian food, sushi, Mongolian food, Spanish food (which is NOT Mexican food), and so on.

None of which has jack all to do with New York, might I add.

Honestly, I don't know how you've never met someone that's eaten Chinese food, at least. How can that be possible? Where do you live? I've been to tiny rural towns that have Chinese places.
   48. Blastin Posted: January 13, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4036233)
And how does he know he's never met someone who's eaten Indian food? It's likely you have.

Do you ask all of them if they're limited in gastronomical experience?
   49. JPWF1313 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4036238)
(I mean, seriously who outside of New York honestly thinks either Sanchez or Eli Manning is actually good(definition of good is top ten in the league)

This is such a wrongheaded comment on every level
(caveat I'm a Jets fan)
1: No one in NY (save some people who run the Jets unfortunately) thinks Sanchex is even adequate, let alone good- if you are getting the impression that some people somewhere think Sanchez is good, you are not getting it from NY/New Yorkers
2: I'm not a Giants fan, and thought it was hysterical when Eli claimed to be as good as Brady, but Brady is not the standard for "good," but lets see, top 10 in TDs, 6 times, 7th overall among active QBs, passing yards top 10, 4 times, 9th among active QBs, passing yards per game, top 10 3 times, yards per pass attempt top 10 3 times- the last 3 years, yes he reeked his first couple of seasons, that was then, this is now
   50. Perry Posted: January 13, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4036253)
I've been watching tv shows in which someone other than pizza stores actually deliver? I've never in my life met a person who has eaten 1. indian food, 2. sushi 3. anything other than mexican, real food or italian... yet tv acts like it's normal because of the New York influence(or the upper hollywood influence, which is really just east coasters wishing they were cool enough to be New Yorkers)


Hell, I live in Colorado, not even in Denver, and there's damn good foreign, not-Mexican-or-Italian food all over the place, all doing great business. Thai, sushi, Vietnamese, Indian, even Ethiopian. There's a good Indian restaurant 5 blocks from my house, I go there all the time. What the hell are you talking about?
   51. spike Posted: January 13, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4036277)
Even here in Atlanta, not only do we get all of the above plus more (real regional chinese, indonesian, persian, turkish, and more), but they are so ingrained in the local palate there is actual snobbery over places that are deemed more authentic than others.
   52. Blastin Posted: January 13, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4036285)
I think he lives in his own world.

And I'm still curious as to what "real" food is.
   53. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4036289)
So I guess the consensus can be summed up as "cardsfanboy is a dope?"
   54. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4036304)
Or at least very, very isolated.
   55. JPWF1313 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4036305)
Still, his career numbers are eerily like those of Elvis Grbac.


Sure if be "eerily like" you mean it the same way when geneticists say a chimp's genome is "eerily like" that of a human.

Elvis top 4 years by passing yards:
4169
3389
3033
1943

Eli:
4933
4021
4002
3762

Elvis TD/INT: 99/81
Eli: 185/129

Eli's similar players through year 6: Mark Brunell, John Elway*, Tom Brady, Jim Everett, Ken O'Brien, Doug Williams, Troy Aikman*, Jim Plunkett, Steve McNair, Bob Griese* (I don't see Elvis on that list)


   56. OsunaSakata Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4036344)
I spent a week on vacation in Winnipeg in the mid 1990s. My wife liked it more than me since she's been disgusted with the pace of DC life. I can't say a bad thing about the place and don't understand where the hate is coming from. Granted, I wouldn't want to spend the winter there.

We sat next to a friendly couple at the Goldeyes game who sounded like they came out of a Great White North sketch. Since it was the last game of the season the giveaway was a grab bag of leftovers from previous giveaways, which included beachballs. This was at Winnipeg Stadium so the owner (and future mayor) sat in the stands, not in a luxury suite, getting hit with bouncing beachballs just like everyone else.
   57. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4036368)
I spent a week on vacation in Winnipeg

My condolences.

I kid!
To explain my particular Winnipeg hate...
It's a mix of
A) someone's gotta be the butt of the joke
B) living in Regina I picked up a lot of the Labour Day football rivalry (the Banjo Bowl) between the Rough Riders and the Blue Bombers...and just generally the rivalry between Saskatchewan and Manitoba over who gets to be the 9th coolest province in the dominion.
C) I have a very close friend who had an awful, awful time in Winnipeg for a couple years (this really has nohing to do with Winnipeg in particular, it could have happened in any city...but it happened in Winnipeg so the association is there)
D) somewhat related to C, I've spent some shitty weekends in Winnipeg.
E) Winnipeg does have the unfortunate mix of mosquitos in the summer and cold, windy winters which makes for a worst of both worlds kind of thing.
   58. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4036369)
Question for regular mainland readers/posters: Is the above post representative of cardsfanboy's typical work? Or is he having a bad (or good) day?

You answers will help determine whether my Ignore list grows by one more name.
   59. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4036378)
I live in the middle of nowhere Indiana and there are probably 10 sushi and a dozen Indian places within a 10 mile radius.
   60. Karl from NY Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4036385)
#58, I can't offhandedly recall anything negative from cardsfanboy in the past.

Oh, and New York will kick any other city's buttocks.
   61. Kurt Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4036396)
Question for regular mainland readers/posters: Is the above post representative of cardsfanboy's typical work? Or is he having a bad (or good) day?

My vote is for bad day.

That said, in all the Manning hulabaloo I'm suprised nobody picked up on this:

their two football teams, neither of which is worth a crap

The Giants have been .500 or better the last seven years, making the playoffs in five of those years (including one of the most impressive playoff runs in the history of football).

The Jets, before this year's awful, disastrous, embarassing .500 season, made the AFC championship game the previous two years.

Neither team is of course on the level of Green Bay or New England, but the idea that unless you're the best of the best you're not worth a crap sounds like something a stereotypical New Yorker might say.
   62. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4036398)
E) Winnipeg does have the unfortunate mix of mosquitos in the summer and cold, windy winters which makes for a worst of both worlds kind of thing.

So, it's Chicago, then.
Is the above post representative of cardsfanboy's typical work? Or is he having a bad (or good) day?

Not representative at all, but I can think of at least one thing in the past that I found pretty ridiculous (and, in that case, even offensive IMO).

I would definitely not put him on ignore; I find a lot of his baseball-related stuff worth reading (whether I agree with it or not).
   63. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4036399)
Is the above post representative of cardsfanboy's typical work?

Yes. See my #40.
   64. Chicago Joe Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4036408)
unless you're the best of the best you're not worth a crap sounds like something a stereotypical New Yorker might say.


Or a Rams fan. They been either great or piss poor since they've been in STL.
   65. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4036413)
Cardsfanboy has said bewildering things about food before. IIRC he previously said something like
"restaurants are only for weird food that you can't cook at home, and nobody even likes
restaurants anyway." He also said something about "real food" then, which I believe he defined as
American stuff that you can easily prepare at home, like steak and baked potatoes.

I suppose it's fine not to like sushi or Indian food, but his idea that these things are unavailable
and uninteresting to all but a sliver of coastal elite is very wrong. And the idea that Hollywood is
promoting these views despite the manifest lack of interest on the part of real Americans is insane.

But he sometimes says reasonable things about baseball, so I wouldn't ignore him.

Also, sushi and Indian food are both ####### delicious, and I have had both delivered to my apartment
in San Francisco. Not sure where SF stands in cardsfanboy's fantasy about east-coast-upper-hollywood-
New-Yorker-wannabes.
   66. Mark S. is bored Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4036417)
Cardsfanboy has said bewildering things about food before. IIRC he previously said something like "restaurants are only for weird food that you can't cook at home, and nobody even likes restaurants anyway." He also said something about "real food" then, which I believe he defined as American stuff that you can easily prepare at home, like steak and baked potatoes.


I have a co-worker who's tastes run to "American food only". And by that I mean steak/potatoes, pizza, sandwiches, etc.
   67. Blastin Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4036422)
Pizza! Entirely American! Hahaha. (Not criticizing you, but your co-worker.)
   68. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4036425)
No interest in sushi, but if I wanted to I could find probably 10-20 places where it's available here in the morass of mediocrity that is Montgomery. We've also got two Indian restaurants. The same was true of profoundly non-exotic Little Rock ... though there might've only been one Indian place when I lived there.

I assume cardsfanboy is (a) institutionalized (& for good reason, no doubt, judging from his posts in general when he's not confining his comments to baseball) (b) in a very remote location. Like, very remote. I mean, I grew up in a semirural hamlet so small that it doesn't have a single traffic light, but even 30-plus years ago residents who wanted Chinese food were only 20 minutes away from a restaurant serving it.
   69. Karl from NY Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4036435)
Pizza! Entirely American!

Ever wonder why the American food scene has no German restaurants or notion of German cuisine, aside from the occasional bierhaus? Answer: well, what do you think hamburgers and frankfurters are? German food just became American food.
   70. Blastin Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4036440)
I agree. And French Fries are Belgian.
   71. Greg K Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4036452)
Answer: well, what do you think hamburgers and frankfurters are?

Not to mention delicious cologne, and the very act of munchen on grub!
   72. Randy Jones Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4036454)
Ever wonder why the American food scene has no German restaurants or notion of German cuisine, aside from the occasional bierhaus? Answer: well, what do you think hamburgers and frankfurters are? German food just became American food.


Huh? I know of several German restaurants near me and none of them serve hamburgers or hot dogs.
   73. Red Menace Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4036490)
Pizza! Entirely American!


Tomatoes are from the New World after all.
   74. Perry Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4036497)
I assume cardsfanboy is (a) institutionalized (& for good reason, no doubt, judging from his posts in general when he's not confining his comments to baseball) (b) in a very remote location. Like, very remote.


Pretty sure he's in St. Louis, which, all jokes aside, is not exactly bereft of ethnic food choices. He just apparently chooses not to avail himself of them, or to hang out with anyone who does. No accounting for taste, I guess.
   75. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4036507)
Darn. I was envisioning a life story straight from Sling Blade.
   76. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4036511)
Pretty sure he's in St. Louis, which, all jokes aside, is not exactly bereft of ethnic food choices. He just apparently chooses not to avail himself of them, or to hang out with anyone who does. No accounting for taste, I guess.

It's one thing to not avail oneself, but how can you be an adult and not be aware that some of these places do deliver in non-New-York locations? Seriously, read his post: he called that "unrealistic."
   77. Nasty Nate Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4036514)
Hmmm, how to pick an example of how NYC is over-represented in the media....I'll go with nobody actually eats ethnic food. check.

Okay, on to an example of how California is over-represented in movies. Tough one... oh, got it! Cars! The movies make it seem like people everywhere actually drive cars to get places. Bogus.

I am cliche-buster.
   78. Chicago Joe Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4036525)
It's one thing to not avail oneself, but how can you be an adult and not be aware that some of these places do deliver in non-New-York locations?

Maybe he lives in North St. Louis?
   79. Lassus Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4036529)
I would like to dispute #40.

And the Chicken himself isn't exactly a joy a minute to read himself.
   80. SouthSideRyan Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4036533)
Huh? I know of several German restaurants near me and none of them serve hamburgers or hot dogs.


Just another upper hollywood NYC wannabe I see.
   81. Perry Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4036561)
Maybe he lives in North St. Louis?


Ha. I went to undergrad there (St. Louis, not North St. Louis) and later on when I was in grad school in Austin there was a guy in my program who when I met him said he was from St. Louis. I figured great, we probably know a lot of the same places, but it turned out he was from some outer suburb and never -- I mean almost literally never -- had gone into the city. Had zero interest in it or what it had to offer, just lived his whole life in the upscale, white-bread outer burbs. Blew my mind, but I've since met a few other people from other places who were that way. CFB is probably one of them.
   82. Nasty Nate Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4036564)
Strangely enough, this article is about Michael Kay, a New Yorker through and through, and he is known for only eating Italian and "real food"...
   83. SouthSideRyan Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4036570)
You mean ironically enough?
   84. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4036588)
Trying new foods is such a significant joy in my life that I honestly feel sad or angry whenever I meet or learn about incurious eaters. Sticking to "real food" makes about as much sense to me as swearing off laughing or fun does.
   85. Blastin Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4036595)
Agreed! I had BBQ'd tarantula in Cambodia. And I'm (generally) a pescetarian but when-in-Rome about it.

   86. cardsfanboy Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:21 PM (#4036602)
I have a co-worker who's tastes run to "American food only". And by that I mean steak/potatoes, pizza, sandwiches, etc.


My joke to my friends is there are 5 food groups, Moo, Oink, Cluck, Corn and Potatoes.

As to Chinese food, yes I live a block away from a store that delivers,(mind you we got 5 blocks to the store that doesn't deliver because it's a better store) so it was an over the top comment, just pointing out that I find it somewhat weird that on tv Chinese is the most delivered food(not a New York knock, but you see it on so many shows centered in New York) St Louis has tons of different restaurants, but the main roads I travel on, consists mostly of fast food, Italian, Steak houses, and barely food places(like Dennys or Waffle House) I can find at least 3 Greek restaurants and 4 Bosnian restaurants for every Indian place in the city, it's just not something I've seen in my life for the most part. (Only Indian food I've eaten I made myself, not sure how authentic that would be, but just following recipes) And of course tv shows also seem to love sushi(which I actually associate with California of course and not New York) which is weird also to me, because once again when talk turns to food sushi is pretty much openly disdained with the people I know. (some exceptions exist of course, I know of at least one family that swears by the greatness that is sushi from the right restaurant)

Of course I live in St Louis and our most popular pizza(Imo's), is basically a slab of cardboard covered with inedible cheese. (they do have very good toppings though)


I'll still stand by my Eli comment, he's Jack Morris.
   87. cardsfanboy Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4036606)
Had zero interest in it or what it had to offer, just lived his whole life in the upscale, white-bread outer burbs. Blew my mind, but I've since met a few other people from other places who were that way. CFB is probably one of them.


For the most part, don't travel much through the city, have lived in 6 different suburbs of St Louis(not to mention Tennessee, Oklahoma, California, Korea and Okinawa) St Louis just doesn't have the population density to have a truly large amount of specialty restaurants. I mean I love Yakitori (tare style, not shio style) and have looked for Japanese restaurants, and was shocked at how few we have and how far they are spread out, and really upset that they all serve the version of Yakitori that I don't care for.
   88. a bebop a rebop Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:44 PM (#4036614)
Bosnian? Bosnian restaurants are more common than Indian in your parallel dimension??

And 58, cfb has a bunch of PWI priors on his record.

EDIT: and also, just to make sure I'm getting this right... you lived in Okinawa and you don't know anybody who has ever eaten sushi? Ok then.
   89. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4036617)
Ah, so you (cfb, not bepob) lied unregenerately on just about every point.

Got it.
   90. cardsfanboy Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4036618)
Bosnian? Bosnian restaurants are more common than Indian in your parallel dimension??


In St Louis? Yes(Bosnian/Serbian). St Louis has the largest amount of Bosnian immigrants in the country.

you lived in Okinawa and you don't know anybody who has ever eaten sushi? Ok then.


Marine, stationed on base, you got off base to go scuba, drinking and whoring for the most part. The restaurants we hit didn't seem to have a sushi bar like they show on tv, they did have Yakitori(which I loved)

Ah, so you (cfb, not bepob) lied unregenerately on just about every point.

Got it.


I would say overstated/exagerrated for effect.
   91. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4036620)
cfb should get a one month ban for outrageous exaggerating.
   92. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 08:05 PM (#4036626)
I would say overstated/exagerrated for effect.

I'm sure you would, but I have to go with gef's interpretation.
   93. ray james Posted: January 13, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4036661)
Question for regular mainland readers/posters: Is the above post representative of cardsfanboy's typical work? Or is he having a bad (or good) day?

You answers will help determine whether my Ignore list grows by one more name.


He says some really crazy #### sometimes, especially when it comes to the Cardinals, but it's pretty harmless.

Don't put him on ignore.
   94. DA Baracus Posted: January 13, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4036673)
I would say overstated/exagerrated for effect.


You purposely exaggerated for the effect of looking like you have no life?
   95. Lassus Posted: January 13, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4036733)
Jesus christ, I think all of you should calm the #### down.
   96. Tuque Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4036799)
Jesus christ, I think all of you should calm the #### down.

That's it, Lassus! You're on ignore!
   97. Something Other Posted: January 19, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4040861)
Optimism day!

68 wins - I win, 67 wins - I lose, Sam.

71 wins - I win, 70 wins - I lose, something other.

No more than a $25 bbref each. Are one or both of you in?


(I know I have a standing Ollie Pete bet. No one has come to collect!)
Missed this, Lassus--sorry about that. I won't, only because I don't want to be rooting in any sense at all for the Mets not to win a game. I'm all for gambling, even irresponsible gambling (well, in other people) though, so if we can come up with another bet... I'd take the over on something like number of wins for Dickey.

So, what was your Ollie Pete bet? And didn't you have a bet on Maine from 2010?
   98. Lassus Posted: January 19, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4040874)
Well, same reaction to Sam's response (which was the same), I guess it wasn't totally a fair request.

My Ollie Perez bet was that he'd have a better career over the minimum numbers of consecutive years as Derek Lowe. Lowe really gave it a fight, but he was out of his class for useless. I think it was with Dial and someone else as well?

I have no recollection of a Maine bet, but anything's possible. 2010 was the year I was working graveyard, who knows what I agreed to?

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