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Sunday, December 09, 2012

CSN: Michael Young, like Jeter, can bounce back offensively

Michael/Jeter: Mr. Noodle.

yu

Young, who is now 36, has always been a similar hitter to Jeter. The one glaring difference between the two is the amount of walks Jeter draws, but take a look at this comparison of their 162-game averages:

...So if Jeter rebounded, why can’t Young? The advanced stats community always stresses that one-year samples can’t be indicative of a player’s true talent level or future, but a giant portion of that same community is dismissing Young as a player who’s done based on his 2012.

Does it really make sense to put more stock into Young’s poor 2012 than the dozen seasons before it? Young hit .311 with a .819 OPS from 2003-11. Few are expecting him to perform like that with the Phillies, but something like his 2010 is realistic. In that season Young hit .284/.330/.444.

We can discuss defense another day, and it is acknowledged here that Young’s hot corner D is not on the same level of Placido Polanco’s or Pedro Feliz’s. But the 2010 version of Young—which could realistically return—would be a significant offensive upgrade over what the Phillies have gotten from their third basemen the last six seasons. Since 2007, Phillies third basemen have hit .263 with a .323 OBP and .370 slugging percentage. Those numbers are pretty much the same as Young’s bottomed-out 2012 season.

Repoz Posted: December 09, 2012 at 09:38 AM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, yankees

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   1. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:51 AM (#4320274)
So if Jeter rebounded, why can’t Young?


Because he's not as good?
   2. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4320282)
Never in a million years would I have guessed it was Elmo who was the child molester and Mr. Noodle was the normal guy.
   3. I Am Not a Number Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4320283)
Everyone can bounce back, Young included. But the odds can't favour anyone that age bouncing back, regardless of their pedigree and regardless of cherry-picked counter-examples.
   4. Tricky Dick Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4320284)
The advanced stats community always stresses that one-year samples can’t be indicative of a player’s true talent level or future, but a giant portion of that same community is dismissing Young as a player who’s done based on his 2012.


Sure, I don't see everything that's written, but is a "giant portion" of the saber community saying that he cannot post better offensive stats in 2013 than 2012? Dave Cameron wrote a fangraphs' piece specifically arguing that Young is likely to rebound offensively. To me, the question is whether Michael Young's defense is good enough to be a full time starter at 3d base.
   5. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4320291)
Wait, is that Mr. Noodle, or Mr. Noodle's brother, Mr. Noodle? I always thought this guy was the brother.
   6. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4320295)
Greg, why do we know this?
   7. BDC Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4320300)
Bad week for modal verbs in headlines; this one should be "could" :)

Which is in fact what I said in the initial Young-trade thread: sure, he could hit .300 next year; he hit above league-average in 2012, dismal as it was for him otherwise.

I am not a member of the advanced stats community, but some relatively unadvanced stats, combined with the ever-popular just looking at the guy, give me some cause for worry. For the past four seasons, since he had a really solid year in 2009, his HR%, K%, W%, and ISO have gone down steadily. That's just another way of saying that he's putting the ball in play more. His power is way down, hence the pitchers are challenging him more; and though he's responded by putting the bat on the ball more often (he's always been able to hit for contact), his offensive value has dropped steadily. Hence his BA fluctuates as one might expect, because it's so dependent on BABIP. He often looks pretty futile at the plate, just observationally; his singles tend more and more to be of the go-where-it's-pitched variety, and his doubles are grounders down the line rather than shots into the gap. That's why I'm not sanguine about his actual value rebounding: not just because 2012 was bad, but because 2011 and 2010 weren't as good as they looked, and the trend is downward.

It's interesting, having written that paragraph, to imagine its audiences. For 99% of the people here, that's elementary-school analysis of the most bloody obvious variety. To a lot of people beyond BBTF, I've just engaged in a hefty helping of SCHLORP and THUNDERCORK :-D
   8. alkeiper Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4320303)
Even Michael Young 2012 is about the same offensively that the Phillies got from Placido Polanco the last two years.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4320311)
Because he's not as good?


I was thinking that, along with not having access to Jeter's special stash of magic pills. If there is one guy on the planet who should be suspected of being a PEDer, it should be Jeter. This is a guy who takes intelligent precautions with his personal life, that makes you think if he's cheating, he is cagey enough to not leave any evidence.

So if there is no evidence of him cheating, he must be cheating.
   10. Wins Above Paul Westerberg Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4320314)
Wait, is that Mr. Noodle, or Mr. Noodle's brother, Mr. Noodle? I always thought this guy was the brother.

That's Mr. Noodle's brother. Mr. Noodle is played by Bill Irwin.

You're all welcome.
   11. JRVJ Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4320320)
They say there's no bad one year deals.

Michael Young for $6MM is a decent deal if he is a league average 3B. The trick is for him to be average this year.
   12. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 09, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4320321)
   13. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 09, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4320325)
a hefty helping of SCHLORP and THUNDERCORK


New handle?

So if there is no evidence of him cheating, he must be cheating.


Oh, Jesus.
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: December 09, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4320331)
Oh, Jesus.


I'm following the writers eventual logic to it's inevitable conclusion. (which is everyone cheated, except those we deemed beforehand as non-cheaters, although of course Jeter is on that short list as non-cheaters, and they keep trying to put Petitte back on that list)
   15. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 09, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4320334)
I'm following the writers eventual logic to it's inevitable conclusion.


That doesn't make my response any less apt.
   16. Srul Itza At Home Posted: December 09, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4320346)
In this Holiday season, your response is always apt.

But seriously, Jeter is a Hall of Fame talent. Michael Young, not so much.
   17. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 09, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4320368)
Happy Festivus!
   18. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: December 09, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4320371)
That's Mr. Noodle's brother. Mr. Noodle is played by Bill Irwin.

That's what I thought. Of course, it's a bit moot, since Mr. Noodle's brother (the guy in the picture) died a few years ago. And my kids have moved past Sesame Street so I'm no longer up to date.

It was really weird seeing the guy in Jurassic Park 3, though.
   19. Swoboda is freedom Posted: December 09, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4320373)
Never in a million years would I have guessed it was Elmo who was the child molester and Mr. Noodle was the normal guy.

Michael Jeter, the actor who played Mr. Noodle, was gay however. Not there is anything wrong with that.
   20. Textbook Editor Posted: December 09, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4320403)
Toast always makes stale bread taste better...

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