Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, March 28, 2014

Miguel Cabrera and Tigers agree on eight-year, $248 million extension

Miguel Cabrera, the best hitter in baseball, will also be the best-paid player in the game when the slugger and the Detroit Tigers finalize what multiple reports say would be the biggest contract extension in baseball history based on average annual value.

Cabrera and the Tigers have agreed on an extension that would keep an Olde English “D” on Cabrera’s chest through 2023. It’s worth $248 million over eight years and kicks in after Cabrera finishes his old deal, which still has two years and $44 million remaining.

The extension is worth $31 million per year, which would be the highest yearly salary for any deal in history, eclipsing Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year deal with the Dodgers that’s worth $215 million, or $30.71 million per year.

GregD Posted: March 28, 2014 at 12:05 AM | 138 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: contract extension, miguel cabrera, tigers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. valuearbitrageur Posted: March 28, 2014 at 03:03 PM (#4678352)
#98 Not necessarily (minus PED stink)

Manny


Looking at big first base types who were elite hitters.

Player OPS+/WAR
Age 28
-30 Rest of Career/games
Manny 177
/16.0 152/28.0 over 1,073 games
McGwire 174
/9.4 183/34.2 over 884 games
Thomas 160
/16.3 135/23.6 over 1086 games
Allen 165
/16.3 133/7.2 over 458 


There are exceptions, sure, but who'd think McGwire was it? Canseco said he started injecting Mark when he was 25 or 26, and McGwire went on to have his worst 4 years of his career, then it looks like Mark switched suppliers or something around age 31.
   102. The Good Face Posted: March 28, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4678360)
a) That Mike Trout may not be a true talent 10 WAR player, regression says his first 2 years are so unprecedented in today's competitive environ that he should regress to "only" an 8-9 WAR player. That argument is that everything went well for him, hits dropped in, he was very healthy, his defensive stats may be overly optimistic etc. if that's true he might only get $35M AAV in FA.


Miguel Cabrera is a 7 WAR player going into his age 31 season and he got $33M. A 26 year old Trout who's "only" an 8-9 WAR player is going to blow that away.

It may be that Mike Trout is better off waiting for free agency because his market value is so huge and the massive long-term money he would lockdown would dwarf anything the angels could pay him for those six years. but you should also consider the following


This is probably true. Normal WAR per $ calculations start to break down when you're looking at getting SO much value from a single player, which I why I'd expect Trout to get a salary-scale busting supermegadeal if he goes to FA ASAP.
   103. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 28, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4678361)
In the mean time, he doesn't want that husbands poorly maintained yard to lead to him making nearly zip on the disabled list next year and only $20m in arb awards the next three years.


Or he could try to protect his future earning potential by ####### single women once in a while.
   104. BDC Posted: March 28, 2014 at 03:19 PM (#4678364)
all discretionary income will eventually need to be spent on professional sports

And what's wrong with that.
   105. toratoratora Posted: March 28, 2014 at 04:13 PM (#4678402)
Some back of the napkin math...
Assume 3% inflation, the PV of the deal is 223.47 mil. At 5/6/7 mil per WAR (And I lean far more towards 7 than 5 for elite players after this offseason), Miggy has to earn 45/37/32 WAR for this contract to even out.

At 2%, the PV is 231.32 mil and the according WAR is 46/39/33.
At 5%, the PV is 208.68 mil and the according WAR is 42/35/30.

This deal, I dunno. My first thought was WTF, can anyone says Pujols?
Baseball is spending crazy money. The owners are acting horny sailors hitting port after being at sea for, I dunno, a decade or two.

   106. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2014 at 04:31 PM (#4678411)
I just don't get the urgency of getting this done now from the Tigers' side. Normally the cost of an extension would go up as the onset of free agency approaches, but in this case the guy is coming off back-to-back MVP seasons and I doubt that Cabrera's leverage to extract a huge deal could be higher next offseason. I think it is likely that his leverage would also have been lower than right now in 2 years even with 29 other teams able to sign him.

This is buying high when they already had the thing they were buying.
   107. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: March 28, 2014 at 04:37 PM (#4678415)
I would bet that Cabrera made some noise behind the scenes that encouraged the Tigers to get an extension done.
   108. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2014 at 04:47 PM (#4678417)
I would bet that Cabrera made some noise behind the scenes that encouraged the Tigers to get an extension done.


Unless those noises included concessions on the size of the new contract, the Tigers should have ignored them.
   109. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 28, 2014 at 05:15 PM (#4678427)
I would bet that Cabrera made some noise behind the scenes that encouraged the Tigers to get an extension done.


The "give me a contract extension or I'll have a bad attitude and make you not like having me on the team" sort of thing? Then again, Manny pulled that off to get the Red Sox to decline his options, so I guess it's possible.
   110. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2014 at 05:20 PM (#4678431)
I think Manny's options were dropped to get him to waive his tangible right to not be traded.
   111. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2014 at 05:25 PM (#4678433)
MLB is awash in dough, as has been the case for some time now. Please, no more posts about "the poor owners". They aren't children.
   112. Nasty Nate Posted: March 28, 2014 at 05:27 PM (#4678434)
MLB is awash in dough, as has been the case for some time now. Please, no more posts about "the poor owners". They aren't children.


Who are you quoting there? What posts do you mean?
   113. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 28, 2014 at 06:27 PM (#4678444)

At 2%, the PV is 231.32 mil and the according WAR is 46/39/33.
At 5%, the PV is 208.68 mil and the according WAR is 42/35/30.


I don't know why the discount rate makes a big difference - you get the WAR or the value thereof over time, not up-front, so that should be discounted at the same rate. The WAR will be more heavily weighted to the front end than the salary is, but not as much as this implies.
   114. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 28, 2014 at 06:28 PM (#4678445)

The "give me a contract extension or I'll have a bad attitude and make you not like having me on the team" sort of thing?

This is the kind of thing that would make me even more reluctant to get him a crazy extension.
   115. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 28, 2014 at 08:17 PM (#4678460)
That batshit crazy part of this contract is they do it 2 years early, coming off back-to-back MVPs. There's no way Cabrera can increase his value from here, and at 31, there's a really good chance he declines significantly.

If Miggy was a FA, this is a huge overpay, but as an extension with 2 years left, it's insane.
   116. Squash Posted: March 28, 2014 at 09:36 PM (#4678470)
If Miggy was a FA, this is a huge overpay, but as an extension with 2 years left, it's insane.

Doubly so because for all the "the fans will riot if he leaves!!!!!!" threats the real-life experience seems to be the exact opposite when a star player leaves for massive money from another team - usually you actually see the fanbase rally around their team in a \"#### that guy for taking the money over our love" kind of way. ARod, Giambi, Cano, Pujols, (not a huge rally, but the response was very much more muted than was expected), I'm sure you could throw many others on the pile. The reality is fans root for their team pretty much no matter what - if the guy leaves for big money it's screw that dick, if he stays it's "we needed to keep him no matter what". They're rooting for the uniform and filter their reaction through that.
   117. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 28, 2014 at 09:47 PM (#4678472)
Barry Bonds had his best years in his late 30s and early 40s, so Miguel Cabrera can too. If Cabrera can raise his level from 36-40 like Bonds did, he'll be worth the contract easily.

   118. ptodd Posted: March 28, 2014 at 09:49 PM (#4678474)
I think this shows teams value the offensive component of WAR more so than other components, or at least the Tigers do. Which makes sense because hitting is the commodity in shortest supply. Defensive specialists and speedster are a dime a dozen relatively speaking.
   119. ptodd Posted: March 28, 2014 at 09:52 PM (#4678477)
The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 28, 2014 at 09:47 PM (#4678472)
Barry Bonds had his best years in his late 30s and early 40s, so Miguel Cabrera can too. If Cabrera can raise his level from 36-40 like Bonds did, he'll be worth the contract easily.


I doubt Miggy will want to risk losing that much money to suspension. He has no reason to be any better than he is, the money is guaranteed. Its all downhill from here I am afraid.

Ortiz still has the fountain of youth because he has been playing for a contract in his "declining" years
   120. zachtoma Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:05 PM (#4678481)
I think Trout would be wise to sign a 6, 7, or 8 year deal right now. His first two seasons are so off the charts that he's going to be paid at his absolute peak - there's no way his value increases going forward, it's more likely than not that his ensuing seasons will not be up to the standards of the first two even if he remains the consensus best player in the game. If he goes to FA, though, it would be the biggest frenzy since A-Rod 2000 and there would be some entertainment value in that.
   121. rr Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:33 PM (#4678489)
Los Angeles Angels ?@Angels 5m
#Angels and @Trouty20 have agreed to terms on a 6-year contract extension! Official announcement to come tomorrow.
   122. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:44 PM (#4678495)
If the reported 6/140 is accurate that's a good deal for both sides I think. All the reasons I laid out upthread stand up. Trout gets his #### you money and still hits free agency in his 20s and the Angels buy out three years at not insane money.
   123. Squash Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:48 PM (#4678496)
I think Trout would be wise to sign a 6, 7, or 8 year deal right now. His first two seasons are so off the charts that he's going to be paid at his absolute peak - there's no way his value increases going forward, it's more likely than not that his ensuing seasons will not be up to the standards of the first two even if he remains the consensus best player in the game.

I'm not sure - I'd say the reverse, actually. I think there's still a bit of "he can't really be THAT good, can he?" in the air which is decreasing his potential payout a little. Even if he declines and puts up 8 WAR for a few years rather than 10 I think he's still likely to get more signing later than he would right now because then we're sure he is in fact a massive all-time stud. If the dude's an 8 WAR guy then he's worth $48 million a year (in today's money) theoretically and may actually get that. Whereas I don't think anyone would give him that right now. If he's actually a 10 WAR guy then the sky's the limit. If he's a 6 WAR guy four years from now he's still getting the $30-35 million or so a year he would theoretically be offered today. The only way it really makes sense for him to sign a long-term deal right now is if he thinks he's actually a 5 WAR guy or if his leg is secretly about to fall off.

EDIT: And with that, he signs.
   124. Squash Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:52 PM (#4678497)
If the reported 6/140 is accurate that's a good deal for both sides I think. All the reasons I laid out upthread stand up. Trout gets his #### you money and still hits free agency in his 20s and the Angels buy out three years at not insane money.

Is it two years or three?
   125. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:57 PM (#4678500)
Is it two years or three?


Three FA years.

Six year extension (starting in 2015) for $144.5 MM.

Great deal for the Angels.
   126. Squash Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:58 PM (#4678501)
Three FA years.

Wow. Then I think he went way too conservative.
   127. Brian White Posted: March 28, 2014 at 11:06 PM (#4678502)
I saw the headline, and I thought it was a fair deal for both sides, assuming that the six year deal started this year.

If it buys out three FA years, that's a great deal for the Angels.
   128. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: March 28, 2014 at 11:17 PM (#4678507)
Thinking the way I did earlier;

2015 - 2
2016 - 10
2017 - 18
2018-2020 - 38

That seems pretty reasonable to me.
   129. JE (Jason) Posted: March 28, 2014 at 11:29 PM (#4678508)
If it buys out three FA years, that's a great deal for the Angels.

He was slated to become a free agent after the 2017 season. A six-year deal would encompass 2014-19, no? That's only two years of free agency.

EDIT: Wait, the contract doesn't kick in until '15? Isn't that a little strange?
   130. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: March 28, 2014 at 11:40 PM (#4678510)
This is amazing.

Valuing next year at $2 is foolish. It's his first arb year.

So:

$10/$15/$20 for arb....

And $33 million for each FA year.

Seems right to me. Fair on both ends.

Happy to see this as an Angel fan.
   131. JE (Jason) Posted: March 29, 2014 at 12:17 AM (#4678511)
Apparently, Angel fans were so enthusiastic upon hearing the news of the Trout contract extension that the USGS reported it as a 5.3 earthquake.
   132. valuearbitrageur Posted: March 29, 2014 at 12:46 AM (#4678513)
Is it two years or three?

Three FA years.

Six year extension (starting in 2015) for $144.5 MM.

Great deal for the Angels.


matches up to a 6 year/$117M starting now and only covering 2 FA years as we thought earlier in thread. good deal for both parties

   133. JoeC Posted: March 29, 2014 at 01:11 AM (#4678519)
So:

$10/$15/$20 for arb....

And $33 million for each FA year.

Seems right to me. Fair on both ends.

Happy to see this as an Angel fan.


$33 mil/yr might be fair as an AAV on one of those contracts that stretches into a lot of decline years, but for a deal that ends in Trout's prime the Angels got a helluva discount.

Of course, this salary bubble can't go on forever, cable companies are already balking at the crazy carriage fees necessary to make those crazy broadcast rights deals work, and maybe now's the time to lock in what you can get.
   134. Dan Posted: March 29, 2014 at 01:17 AM (#4678521)
Personally I think Trout is a fool to sign away 3 FA years. That deal would be good for him if the first year was this year, but with it being pushed back a year and delaying his free agency till after 2020 I think it's a poor move on his part. He could be making $40M+ per year as a free agent in 2019 and 2020, instead he's locking himself in at Cabrera money.
   135. Cooper Nielson Posted: March 29, 2014 at 01:41 AM (#4678522)
Poor Mike Trout, finishing second to Miguel Cabrera again! :)
   136. valuearbitrageur Posted: March 29, 2014 at 01:48 AM (#4678523)
Personally I think Trout is a fool to sign away 3 FA years. That deal would be good for him if the first year was this year, but with it being pushed back a year and delaying his free agency till after 2020 I think it's a poor move on his part. He could be making $40M+ per year as a free agent in 2019 and 2020, instead he's locking himself in at Cabrera money.


Obviously he'd prefer to only sign away 1 year, but the Angels have to agree, and apparently they wouldn't. I can't imagine why the Angels would frankly, unless he wanted to sign for some super cheap price like $65m I guess.

He's getting $66M for those extra two years. If he takes a very large risk of waiting 4 years for free agency, his upside would add another $14M-$20M over two years? The risk/reward/utility says lock down a huge amount of money now, and be patient for two extra years before locking down huger amounts later.
   137. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 29, 2014 at 02:24 AM (#4678528)
$10/$15/$20 for arb....

You're wildly underestimating. 75 total was more likely than 45. Terrible deal for him, consequently.

If he'd broken a leg tomorrow and missed the season, he was still getting an eight-figure award for 2015. And if he sucked in his return, he'd have gotten a minimum of 80% of that award in 2016. Or if the Angels went insane and non-tendered him to avoid that, at least one team would've been willing to place a huge bet on a return to form. He basically gave up at least $50 million in upside for security he was already guaranteed short of being incapacitated.
   138. Squash Posted: March 29, 2014 at 02:55 AM (#4678529)
Obviously he'd prefer to only sign away 1 year, but the Angels have to agree, and apparently they wouldn't. I can't imagine why the Angels would frankly, unless he wanted to sign for some super cheap price like $65m I guess.

He's getting $66M for those extra two years. If he takes a very large risk of waiting 4 years for free agency, his upside would add another $14M-$20M over two years? The risk/reward/utility says lock down a huge amount of money now, and be patient for two extra years before locking down huger amounts later.


The Angels don't (didn't) have to agree. If he chose he could just go the arb route and sign away zero free agent years and still get all the money he's going to get on this contract. This is one of those rare circumstances where a pre-arb player held the cards but he let them off very very cheap.

As noted here before (and in Lance's comment above mine) the risk of major injury for a position player just isn't that great, and the risk of one that incapacitates him (i.e. future earnings = zero) is incredibly low. Trout was getting paid big-time regardless unless he gets hit by an actual bus tomorrow, at which point it don't matter much to him anymore anyway. This is just an exceptionally risk-averse move. If the deal started this year then yeah, it would be decent. But pushing it back another year is a gift on the order of tens of millions of dollars.
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2014
(876 - 5:09pm, Nov 20)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogOT:  Soccer (the Round, True Football), November 2014
(349 - 5:08pm, Nov 20)
Last: JuanGone..except1game

NewsblogOTP Politics November 2014: Mets Deny Bias in Ticket Official’s Firing
(3796 - 5:08pm, Nov 20)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogThe family legal fight over Ryan Howard's finances
(48 - 5:07pm, Nov 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogMLB Transaction Trees «
(3 - 5:05pm, Nov 20)
Last: Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy

NewsblogRanking the top 25 prospects from the Arizona Fall League | MLB.com
(3 - 5:04pm, Nov 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogOT - November 2014 College Football thread
(499 - 5:01pm, Nov 20)
Last: AuntBea

NewsblogYoan Moncada Is Affecting All of International Baseball | FanGraphs Baseball
(1 - 4:57pm, Nov 20)
Last: Joe Kehoskie

NewsblogFemale Sportswriter Asks: 'Why Are All My Twitter Followers Men?' | ThinkProgress
(13 - 4:44pm, Nov 20)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(1124 - 4:37pm, Nov 20)
Last: The Good Face

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-20-2014
(7 - 4:22pm, Nov 20)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogExamining our assumptions about Pablo Sandoval
(6 - 4:10pm, Nov 20)
Last: alilisd

NewsblogWhy The Billy Butler Deal May Not Be Totally Crazy | FanGraphs Baseball
(32 - 3:38pm, Nov 20)
Last: Barry`s_Lazy_Boy

NewsblogMLB owners to vote Thursday on five-year contract for Rob Manfred - CBSSports.com
(6 - 2:53pm, Nov 20)
Last: Steve Parris, Je t'aime

NewsblogMarlins' finances obviously stronger than their memory | FOX Sports
(7 - 2:09pm, Nov 20)
Last: #6bid is partially elite

Page rendered in 0.4751 seconds
52 querie(s) executed