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Saturday, December 02, 2017

Miguel Cabrera deserved better in 2017 | MLB.com

Mike Petriello follows this section with some hopeful numbers from Statcast. Of course, he will be 35 next year with a bad back.

In 2017, Miguel Cabrera had the least productive year of a near-certain Hall of of Fame career, though by his lofty standards, even his “least productive year” isn’t that bad. His .249/.329/.399 line, when framed through park-adjusted metrics, was just nine percentage points worse than league average.

Still, each of the three numbers in Cabrera’s triple-slash line—along with his 16 homers, 50 runs scored and 60 driven in—represents full-season career lows for the Tigers legend. We know that he was bothered all season long by a pair of herniated disks in his back, which caused pain in his hips and legs, and we know that sluggers headed into their late 30s with back problems offer some serious concerns. So if you’re worried about Cabrera, Tigers fans, you’re not wrong to be.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 02, 2017 at 07:05 AM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: miguel cabrera, tigers

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   1. shoewizard Posted: December 02, 2017 at 09:58 AM (#5584674)
Just 6 years, 184 M to go on that contract.

Would love to know how much of that is insured and how that insurance works. If the back gets really too bad to play and he needs to hang it up in a year or two, do the Tigers have a way to not get totally killed here ?

Saw the video clip of a trimmed down Miggy working out. Hopefully he recovers and bounces back to mash a few more seasons. Love watching him hit. It's one of the purest things in baseball.
   2. Adam Starblind Posted: December 02, 2017 at 10:04 AM (#5584676)
Hopefully he recovers and bounces back to mash a few more seasons. Love watching him hit. It's one of the purest things in baseball.


+1

Sometimes I like to relax by watching clips of home runs on Youtube (cheaper than prozac), and his can be a thing of beauty.
   3. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: December 02, 2017 at 10:41 AM (#5584683)
Deserve's got nothin' to do with it.

(A fabulous line from an otherwise overrated film.)
   4. Baldrick Posted: December 02, 2017 at 10:44 AM (#5584685)
In 2017, Miguel Cabrera had the least productive year of a near-certain Hall of of Fame career, though by his lofty standards, even his “least productive year” isn’t that bad. His .249/.329/.399 line, when framed through park-adjusted metrics, was just nine percentage points worse than league average.

That's quite bad, actually. Below average offense from a guy with zero defensive value is a massive black hole in the middle of your roster.

Hope he bounces back. The good version of Cabrera is a lot of fun. It would be depressing to see him play out the string with a bunch of late career Martin Prado-esque seasons.
   5. shoewizard Posted: December 02, 2017 at 12:14 PM (#5584738)
It would be depressing to see him play out the string with a bunch of late career Martin Prado-esque seasons.


Heck, 14,15,16 Prado would be a massive upgrade over what Cabrera provided in 2017
   6. The Duke Posted: December 02, 2017 at 12:35 PM (#5584752)
He ought to be a great buy low guy. Detroit is shedding salary. If Detroit picked up half you have Cabrera as DH for 6-90 - could be a good deal
   7. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2017 at 03:07 PM (#5584861)
framed through park-adjusted metrics, was just nine percentage points worse than league average.

Does anybody in the media ever get this right? Yes it's a shame that whoever created OPS+ didn't divide by 2 rather than subtract 100 but it's not that hard to keep straight. A 91 OPS+ (actually 92 at b-r) is, give or take, 4.5 percent worse than league average. In Cabrera's case, his OBP was actually a smidgen above league-average but he was down about 10% in SLG.
   8. Greg K Posted: December 02, 2017 at 03:50 PM (#5584881)
Deserve's got nothin' to do with it.

(A fabulous line from an otherwise overrated film.)

I've always found that line a bit confusing.

In that the movie goes out of its way to show us how Clint Eastwood's character comes to the decision that Gene Hackman's character does in fact deserve to die. It's one of the more straight forward decisions he makes in the film.

I did just come across this post which has a somewhat satisfying answer. The person posting relates a conversation they had with the script-writer:

The context was how good Eastwood is as a filmmaker and producer, and how he didn't ask for any rewrites. Dave said he would have hated to have to defend that line to a studio suit because "it just felt right". He couldn't justify it in terms of plot or character arcs or any of the things studio executives understand. It just felt right.


In other words, it doesn't really make sense plot or character-wise, but it's a bad ass line. Which is good enough for me now that I think of it.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2017 at 07:07 PM (#5584952)
The line works better in The Wire.
   10. fra paolo Posted: December 02, 2017 at 09:24 PM (#5584969)
In other words, it doesn't really make sense plot or character-wise, but it's a bad ass line.

I always thought it encapsulated the reality that drunk William Munny just likes killing people.
   11. djordan Posted: December 03, 2017 at 11:16 AM (#5585064)
#6, or he could be David Wright. His OPS+ was below 100 for first time in his career, and under .300 BA for first time since 2008. If his back condition doesn't improve, he could be cooked.
   12. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 03, 2017 at 12:19 PM (#5585085)
Does anybody in the media ever get this right? Yes it's a shame that whoever created OPS+ didn't divide by 2 rather than subtract 100 but it's not that hard to keep straight. A 91 OPS+ (actually 92 at b-r) is, give or take, 4.5 percent worse than league average. In Cabrera's case, his OBP was actually a smidgen above league-average but he was down about 10% in SLG.


Hey Walt, I think I'm one of the people getting this wrong. Could you explain?
   13. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 03, 2017 at 12:23 PM (#5585087)
The Tigers extended Cabrera 2 years earlier than they needed to. It was a decision that was widely panned at the time. Of course, if they had waited until after 2015, it still would have been very expensive to re-sign him, but probably not as expensive as the extension they did give him. It was not as egregious of a decision as the Ryan Howard extension, but it could wind up being even worse. Or maybe he bounces back to being a 5 WAR player and 2017 was an aberration. I think the Tigers should consider making Cabrera a full time DH so that he's not worn down by playing the field. Had David Ortiz had to play the field, he likely would have been done by age 33; instead he was productive until he was 40.
   14. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: December 03, 2017 at 12:26 PM (#5585088)
The line works better in The Wire.
OTOH, Munny survives his encounter with Little Bill Daggett. How did Snoop fare with Michael?
   15. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 03, 2017 at 12:26 PM (#5585089)
Hey Walt, I think I'm one of the people getting this wrong. Could you explain?


The formula for OPS+ is (OBP/leagueOBP + SLG/leagueSLG - 1)*100. So every percentage point above or below league average for both OBP and SLG adds/subtracts one point form the OPS+. So if somebody was 5% worse than league average in both categories (and hence 5% worse than league average in OPS), you subtract 5 from their OPS+ twice resulting in 90, rather than 95. In the extreme example, a player with a 0 OPS has a -100 OPS+.
   16. Baldrick Posted: December 03, 2017 at 12:53 PM (#5585101)
Hey Walt, I think I'm one of the people getting this wrong. Could you explain?

Another perfectly reasonable way to think about it is: OBP and SLG measure different skills. OPS adds them together and OPS+ spits out a measurement compared to average. If you want to be extremely accurate, you can disaggregate and discuss the components. But it's not inaccurate to say that someone is 9% worse than the average, as measured by OPS+. And even if the former is more accurate in some sense, it sure doesn't seem important to be an #actually scold about this, since no one's understanding is being meaningfully harmed by using the shorthand characterization.
   17. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: December 03, 2017 at 03:43 PM (#5585172)
Thanks 15 & 16!
   18. Walt Davis Posted: December 03, 2017 at 04:24 PM (#5585198)
not inaccurate to say that someone is 9% worse than the average, as measured by OPS+.

Yes it is because it's not on a percentage scale.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: December 03, 2017 at 09:52 PM (#5585391)
I'm reading Jaffe's Cooperstown Casebook right now(bought it because of another thread here) and in the first couple of chapters he makes both mistakes, first says ops+ of 110 is ten percent better, which at least that one I can at least somewhat defend, but then he goes and says the same thing about era+, which is pretty indefensible as a primer in a published book that is trying to basically explain the advance stats. (I still haven't made up my mind on this book, I think he made a mistake in deciding to use the first few chapters to explain advance stats, and should have probably did it the way Bill James does, which is bring the explanation up, when it becomes relevant to the topic on hand)
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: December 03, 2017 at 09:59 PM (#5585392)
As far as the line from Unforgiven, I always took it as Clint Eastwood saying that maybe over the course of your life you don't deserve this death, but I'm pissed at you for my own reasons and you are going to die for it.

I know that is a stretch, but that is the way I translate the comment in my head.
   21. bachslunch Posted: December 04, 2017 at 08:04 AM (#5585466)
Deserve's got nothin' to do with it.

(A fabulous line from an otherwise overrated film.)


For some reason, my first thought was this is a paraphrase of the Mae West quote "Goodness had nothing to do with it." It's in her first film "Night after Night," which is not especially good except for West. It's also the title of her autobiography (haven't read it).
   22. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 04, 2017 at 04:50 PM (#5585986)
I think deserve's got nothin' to do with it is applicable both in the movie and for Cabrera in 2017. It doesn't matter if Cabrera was the hardest working most talented batter in history at a prime age if he has a bad back his numbers are going to disappoint. The same principle happens when person with a lifetime of good deeds meets a guy hell bent on avenging his friend with a bottle of whiskey in one hand and a gun pointed at the guy's face in the other.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 04, 2017 at 04:54 PM (#5585992)
The same principle happens when person with a lifetime of good deeds meets a guy hell bent on avenging his friend with a bottle of whiskey in one hand and a gun pointed at the guy's face in the other.

Is that supposed to be Little Bill you're talking about? 'Cause I must have missed the "lifetime of good deeds" in the movie. He was a brutal #######.
   24. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: December 04, 2017 at 05:19 PM (#5586013)
Is that supposed to be Little Bill you're talking about? 'Cause I must have missed the "lifetime of good deeds" in the movie. He was a brutal #######.
Little Bill was also pretty brutal at carpentry.
   25. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: December 04, 2017 at 05:26 PM (#5586021)
I like #10, it's an interpretation I hadn't thought of before, but I think it works.
   26. Greg K Posted: December 04, 2017 at 05:27 PM (#5586024)
The same principle happens when person with a lifetime of good deeds meets a guy hell bent on avenging his friend with a bottle of whiskey in one hand and a gun pointed at the guy's face in the other.

Is that supposed to be Little Bill you're talking about? 'Cause I must have missed the "lifetime of good deeds" in the movie. He was a brutal #######.

Yeah this is how I read the line. Bill does deserve to die...at the least the movie goes out of its way to show us that he deserves to die. I suppose it's possible that individual viewers come to their own conclusions. But the movie itself draws out the logic pretty explicitly.
   27. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: December 04, 2017 at 05:31 PM (#5586033)
Pretty much everyone in that film deserved to die, except for the cut-up prostitute, the doomed cowpoke who had offered her his pony, and Sally Two Trees (although she looked pretty damn mean too).
   28. Srul Itza Posted: December 04, 2017 at 05:51 PM (#5586053)
Trying to put the line in the broader context of Little's Bill's life misses the point.

There is no indication that Munny knows anything about Little Bill, other than the fact that he beat the crap out of Munny (after Munny lied about being armed), and then later killed Ned, who was part of a murder party which eventually killed two people, even though Ned did not pull the trigger.

It is a response to a specific face-to-face interaction. Little Bill says "I don't deserve this... to die like this. I was building a house."


Now, whether Little Bill deserves to die like that, shot down on a bar room floor by a vicious mad dog killer, has nothing to do with it. He is going to be killed, because he killed Munny's friend, Ned. Period. Death is coming.

Deserve's got nothing to do with it.

And Munny realizes that he is not acting as an avenging angel of any kind. Little Bill's last words were, "I'll see you in hell, William Munny." To which Munny just says, "Yeah."
   29. Srul Itza Posted: December 04, 2017 at 06:00 PM (#5586059)
Bill does deserve to die...at the least the movie goes out of its way to show us that he deserves to die. I suppose it's possible that individual viewers come to their own conclusions. But the movie itself draws out the logic pretty explicitly.


He was a vicious son of a bitch, yeah, but I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion.

This was during what is depicted as a violent time and place, and Little Bill was supposed to keep the peace. The very violent manner in which he did is not necessarily out of place with the context. He kicked the hell out of English Bob (who in turn appeared to "deserve" it), but he didn't kill him. He didn't kill William Munny the first time, either. He lost his temper and killed Ned, who was part of a murder gang that had killed two men, after Ned essentially threatened him with death unless he let him go.

So maybe he deserved to die, and maybe he didn't, but you should judge him by the tenor of his time. And as between Little Bill and William Munny, who deserved to die most? The movie goes out of its way to try to make William Munny seem a good man, but it also makes it clear that before "the love of a good woman changed him", he was one of the most vile and vicious murderers, an indiscriminate killer of women and children, who turned back to murder pretty quick when it suited him. So maybe, even if Little Bill deserved to die, it was not in that place, at the hands of such a villain.

(and Unforgiven is not in the slightest overrated).
   30. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 04, 2017 at 06:03 PM (#5586061)
#28 and #29 go into more detail the way I took that line. He doesn't know or care if Little Bill deserves to die since he wants him to die and is about to do it. He even said yeah about seeing him in hell which implies they both deserve to die.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 04, 2017 at 06:56 PM (#5586092)
#28 and #29 go into more detail the way I took that line. He doesn't know or care if Little Bill deserves to die since he wants him to die and is about to do it. He even said yeah about seeing him in hell which implies they both deserve to die.

I share this interpretation.

The movie goes out of its way to try to make William Munny seem a good man, but it also makes it clear that before "the love of a good woman changed him", he was one of the most vile and vicious murderers, an indiscriminate killer of women and children, who turned back to murder pretty quick when it suited him. So maybe, even if Little Bill deserved to die, it was not in that place, at the hands of such a villain.

But the whole tenor of the movie is that Munny is no longer that villain, until Little Bill whips his best friend to death. Even the postscript describes Munny as settling down to a respectable life with his kids.

The whole ark of the movie is an evil doer that reformed, who was then dragged by circumstances (his failing farm/the need to provide for his kid, and the vicious murder of his friend) back into his crimes, but then finally escapes, and goes straight.
   32. Greg K Posted: December 04, 2017 at 08:15 PM (#5586111)
He was a vicious son of a #####, yeah, but I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion.

All that is fair enough, but I don't mean that we as viewers think Bill deserves to die. I mean, we as viewers are given pretty explicit cues that Munny decides Bill deserves to die. It just rings as odd, having him say deserve has got nothing to do with it, after the movie just took us through the steps of how Munny arrived at the decision that Bill deserved to die.

Perhaps it's getting caught up in semantics, but I don't see a great deal of difference between "you killed my friend, so now you have to die" and "you killed my friend, so you deserve to die".

I think it's a great line out of context, and a problematic one in context.
   33. fra paolo Posted: December 04, 2017 at 09:02 PM (#5586118)
This was during what is depicted as a violent time and place, and Little Bill was supposed to keep the peace. The very violent manner in which he did is not necessarily out of place with the context.

I dunno. I think the poor quality of Little Bill's carpentry in building a house is a metaphor for his poor skills at being a sheriff.

His violent assault on English Bob (an unsympathetic character on account of his snooty ways) is actually a demonstration of his failure as a keeper of the peace. So while we cheer him on in putting that fake lordling in his place, we in fact should be angry that he lets violence leak into the structure of the community by being unable to restrain himself, let alone men who would cut up a whore.

Otherwise the presence of English Bob in the film seems little more than an excuse to cut Richard Harris a cheque.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 04, 2017 at 11:04 PM (#5586136)
we in fact should be angry that he lets violence leak into the structure of the community by being unable to restrain himself, let alone men who would cut up a whore.

Little Bill's failure to punish the cowboy who mutilated the prostitute is the Ur-sin of the movie. If he properly administers justice, the bounty never gets placed.
   35. Robert S. Posted: December 05, 2017 at 08:31 PM (#5586908)
The Tigers extended Cabrera 2 years earlier than they needed to. It was a decision that was widely panned at the time. Of course, if they had waited until after 2015, it still would have been very expensive to re-sign him, but probably not as expensive as the extension they did give him. It was not as egregious of a decision as the Ryan Howard extension, but it could wind up being even worse. Or maybe he bounces back to being a 5 WAR player and 2017 was an aberration. I think the Tigers should consider making Cabrera a full time DH so that he's not worn down by playing the field. Had David Ortiz had to play the field, he likely would have been done by age 33; instead he was productive until he was 40.

I think you can make a reasonable case for extending him that early as long as it's to a somewhat team-friendly deal since they were absorbing so much additional risk. The problem is the Tigers paid him as if he was a 25-year-old free agent, rather than if they were guaranteeing ages 33-40 to a 31-year-old with no leverage for two more years. I think that's the same core problem with the Stanton extension. Why pay market value, much less toss in an opt-out, to a guy not on the market?

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