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Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Miguel Cabrera May Win The Triple Crown. But Is Mike Trout The AL MVP? | Keeping Score | TIME.com

Push back against Bill Madden’s take on WAR.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:49 AM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, miguel cabrera, mike trout, mvp, sabermetrics

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   1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4252380)
I hope Trout wins. I've got a couple of FB friends who have declared several times that they are "never watching baseball again" if Cabrera doesn't win it.
   2. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4252391)
I hope Trout wins. I've got a couple of FB friends who have declared several times that they are "never watching baseball again" if Cabrera doesn't win it.


Allowing the vote of a small group of baseball writers - whether the outcome is for your guy or the other guy - to dictate your enjoyment of the game is truly the height of idiocy. I"m stunned that so many people are getting so worked up over it and allowing it to affect their enjoyment of Miggy's really cool accomplishment and Trout's all-around brilliance.

   3. Every Inge Counts Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4252418)
From a message board I go to (it is a Detroit Lions one). Prepare to be amazed by the thoughts of the masses:

Couldnt disagree more. TROUT has speed and has made about 4 good to great catches this year...the media has been in love with this guy from the first one in APRIL.

Buthis team finished 3rd CABBYs won the division. Hes 10 points behind in BA, 14 behind in HRs, and miles behind in RBIs.

Yep he runs well, but he steals 49 bases based on 49 singles. CABBY isnt built for speed, but his O nbrs out wiegherd averything that TROUT has done, and his bat literally carried the TIGERS to the division crown and playioffs. Where is TROUT going tomorrow? Home?

Fielding? 4 good to great catches this season for TROUT? Uh huh, but CABBY has made two leaping catches (one he snow coned as he grabbed it with the tip of his glove) in the last week that literally saved 2 runs form scoring in close wins. His work at 3B is highly underrated, because he isnt leaping for every ball hit in the neighborhood, but hes steady and makes the plays.

If ESPN didnt get an erection every time they heard the name TROUT, we wouldnt know who this kid was. That would be a tragedy, because he is a good player, and probably barring injury, will be a great player.

But he isnt an MVP candidate at this point.
   4. depletion Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4252435)
Cabrera 369 PO and A, 31 DP, 13 E
Trout 263 PO and A, 2 DP, 2 E
Cabrera had a good year with the glove compared to other AL 3b, except Moustakas. Trout had the 5th best RF of AL CF's, not nearly as good as Span and A Jones.
   5. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4252442)
I think I speak for everyone when I say, Time Magazine covers the AL MVP race?
   6. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4252445)
I think I speak for everyone when I say, Time Magazine covers the AL MVP race?

Well, in this age beyond history there really isn't much else going on.
   7. phredbird Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4252446)
i read time when i can, but mostly because i think the art direction is so cool. no idea if it helps or hurts its circulation, i just find it clean, efficient and eye-catching.
   8. Shredder Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4252453)
Yep he runs well, but he steals 49 bases based on 49 singles. CABBY isnt built for speed, but his O nbrs out wiegherd averything that TROUT has done, and his bat literally carried the TIGERS to the division crown and playioffs. Where is TROUT going tomorrow? Home?


So I messed around with the numbers a little bit, and while this certainly isn't perfect, it didn't immediately come off as crazy to me, so someone please tell me why I'm nuts. I made an adjustment to each players Avg and SLG based on SBs and GiDPs. Basically add one total base for each stolen base, subtract one hit and TB for each CS, and add one at bat GiDP. The idea being that if a guy singles and steals second, how is that all that much different than a double? If he singles and gets caught stealing, it's like he never got a hit, etc. Probably should have done this for OBP since a guy could steal/get caught after a walk, or fielders choice, or whatever, but you get the picture. I also realize that Cabrera, batting fourth, assuredly gets more chances to ground into double plays, but I'm not sure how to adjust for that.

Cabrera: 620 AB, 377 TB, 205 H, 28 GiDP, 4 SB, 1 CS.
Adjusted: 648 AB, 380 TB, 204 H for a line of 315/586

Trout: 556 AB, 312 TB, 180 H, 7 GiDP, 49 SB, 4 CS.
Adjusted: 563 AB, 357 TB, 176 for a line of 312/634.

Trout gets a huge uptick in SLG, which I think put into better context the value of his stolen bases.

This is totally back of the envelope, and if you've been around here long enough, you know I'm not a total stat geek. I'm in no way wedded to this adjustment, so please feel free to rip it to shreds and tell me that I'm a moron for even suggesting it. I've been arguing back and forth with a Tigers fan friend of mine (used to post here as Buddha), and basically my argument is that, if you believe the park adjustments are accurate, Trout and Cabrera have had pretty comparable offensive seasons (169 OPS+ for Trout to 167 for Cabrera, albeit in fewer at bats). Even if I concede that Cabrera has had a marginally better offensive season, and even if I concede that hitting is the most important thing a position player can do, Trout's fielding and baserunning are simply too superior to be ignored.
   9. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4252454)
How to spot a totally skippable article: the headline ends with a question mark.
   10. BDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4252457)
How to spot a totally skippable article: the headline ends with a question mark

If people had only taken your advice, it might have prevented the Russian Revolution.
   11. depletion Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4252467)
The idea being that if a guy singles and steals second, how is that all that much different than a double?

A double often drives in a runner from first, so it is a bit better than a single and a steal.
   12. The District Attorney Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4252474)
"Cabby" is terrible.
   13. TomH Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4252480)
most models would consider the SB about 2/3rds of an extra base. The extra CS could take away the on-base value of a hit, but not the full "TB" value, since the hit could have driven in a runner before the CS occurred. Since Trout has so few CS, for this case that part matters little.
   14. Srul Itza Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4252489)
Anyone else notice that Detroit is the last game starting in the AL? The Texas game will be over, the Angels game will be well under way. Cabrera will have a very good idea as to whether he can claim the Triple Crown just by sitting out.
   15. UCCF Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4252496)
Anyone else notice that Detroit is the last game starting in the AL? The Texas game will be over, the Angels game will be well under way. Cabrera will have a very good idea as to whether he can claim the Triple Crown just by sitting out.

I think he's already said he won't sit out.

Unless Trout goes nuts, Cabrera would have to have a pretty bad day at the plate to blow the 7-point lead. The biggest thing he has to avoid is Hamilton homering twice.
   16. Srul Itza Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4252501)
Following up, if Cabrera went 0-5 while Trout went 5-5 or 4-4, Trout gets the batting crown .330 or .3285, to .328. Mauer is too far back -- 5-5 only gets him to .327 (numbers rounded up if needed).



   17. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4252504)
Trout would have to go 6-6 to beat out Cabrera for the batting title if Miggy doesn't play today.
   18. spycake Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4252508)
"Cabby" is terrible.

Agreed. "M-Cab" all the way!
   19. Ron J2 Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4252537)
Basically add one total base for each stolen base, subtract one hit and TB for each CS, and add one at bat GiDP. The idea being that if a guy singles and steals second, how is that all that much different than a double?


You've basically rediscovered total average and/or base/out percentage.

Problem being that you've considerably over-valued the stolen bases. A double has considerably more potential to advance runners. And (not that it much matters in the case of Trout) a caught stealing is roughly twice as costly as a stolen base is good.
   20. Shredder Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4252547)
You've basically rediscovered total average and/or base/out percentage.
Yeah, I figured this was too easy. This is why I'm not a stat guy necessarily.
   21. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4252591)
Trout would have to go 6-6 to beat out Cabrera for the batting title if Miggy doesn't play today.

If Trout goes 4-4 and Miggy goes 0-4, Trout will win the batting title by .00005 points.
   22. UCCF Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4252664)
Agreed. "M-Cab" all the way!

They should trade him to the Nationals, where he could be DC Cab.
   23. Kyle S at work Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4252899)
Jonah Keri said the following today:

Trout leads the league with 49 stolen bases, to Cabrera's four... While swiping 49 bags, Trout has been caught only four times, for a success rate of 92 percent... Using FanGraphs' Base Running Runs stat, we see that Trout leads all of baseball by a wide margin, having produced nearly seven runs of value for the Angels just by virtue of his taking extra bases in non-steal situations. If we combine Trout's base-stealing prowess with those extra bases in non-steal spots, he's been worth nearly 10 runs to his team.


10 - 7 = 3. Is it really true that a baserunner who steals 49 bags and only gets caught 4 times is only worth 3 runs? That seems to set an absurdly low run value of the steal.

I always heard .3/-.6 or .33/-.66, which would equal +12.3 or +13.5 runs. Add 7 runs of non-stealing baserunning value and Trout should be around +20 runs with his legs. Right?
   24. Tricky Dick Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4252900)
I've got a couple of FB friends who have declared several times that they are "never watching baseball again" if Cabrera doesn't win it.


And Josh Hamilton said he would quit playing baseball if Cabrera doesn't win the MVP.
   25. Booey Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4253069)
And Josh Hamilton said he would quit playing baseball if Cabrera doesn't win the MVP.


Did he really?
   26. AJMcCringleberry Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4253076)
And Josh Hamilton said he would quit playing baseball if Cabrera doesn't win the MVP.

Go Trout!
   27. Tricky Dick Posted: October 03, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4253156)
Did he really?

Hamilton was likely joking, but the quote.. "If he doesn't win Most Valuable Player, I'm going to have to quit baseball." is from here.
   28. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4253267)
Too bad there aren't more innings left in the Bronx. Granderson just hit his 43rd.
   29. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: October 04, 2012 at 12:28 AM (#4253438)
Where is TROUT going tomorrow? Home?


No. He's going fishing. Duh!
   30. Poster Nutbag Posted: October 04, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4253440)
So, if the MVP is based upon who helped get their team to the postseason...Co-MVP's for every Athletic and Oriole???

Gotta love MSM and the fans sometimes....
   31. base ball chick Posted: October 04, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4253477)
i have read a lot of comments (on FB) from current and former major/minor leaguers and they ALL think that cabrera should win the MVP because

1 - he played 6 months, not 5 (that was REALLY a big deal)
2 - he won the triple crown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3 - he carried the tigres into the playoffs

none of these guys are the bbtn/mlb.tv guys neither



   32. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: October 04, 2012 at 02:32 AM (#4253492)
So, if the MVP is based upon who helped get their team to the postseason...Co-MVP's for every Athletic and Oriole???

No, that's just silly.
However, the A's rookies, collectively, were absolutely better than Mike Trout. Team ROY Award?
   33. Jeffrey Lee Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4255497)
Well, in this age beyond history there really isn't much else going on.


Singularity save us!

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