Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, May 24, 2014

Miguel Cabrera messes with Adrian Beltre’s Head

Not really news, but every time someone messes with Beltre’s head, the result is pretty awesome.

SoCalDemon Posted: May 24, 2014 at 01:51 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rangers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 24, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4712756)
1) As much as Scott Boras may have misread the FA market for Stephen Drew this off-season, Boras may have done his best work when he worked with Boston to sign Beltre to a one-year deal back in 2010. Beltre had been injured the previous year, and had just spent four years in the statistic-depressing environs of Seattle. He goes crazy in Boston, and signs a big deal for Texas. Consider, though: Under the current qualifying offer system, there is no way Boston wouldn't have offered Beltre the QA, in the hopes of reaching a multi-year deal with Beltre. The old "I'll get my client a one-year deal to rebuild his value" is less attractive a ploy now, because if your client has too good a year, they'll get stuck with the qualifying offer.

2) I never thought I'd say this, but I love Adrian Beltre. He has ended up being one of the best players of the last 15 years in baseball, is still going pretty strong as he approaches 2500 hits and 380 HRs, 4 GGs, 4 SS...I don't know if he is going to be a HOFer, but his play, combined with his quirky head thing, makes him a really fun player to watch...
   2. SoCalDemon Posted: May 24, 2014 at 04:56 PM (#4712835)
Beltre should pass the Jeter line within the next month. Jeter = 71.9 bWAR; Beltre = 71.5 bWAR. And they are closer offensively than I think a lot of people think. Jeter = 116 OPS+; Beltre = 114 OPS+ (Jeter is much further ahead in terms of wRC+, 121-113, but still close enough that Beltre's defense more than makes up the difference).
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: May 24, 2014 at 05:49 PM (#4712888)
2) I never thought I'd say this, but I love Adrian Beltre. He has ended up being one of the best players of the last 15 years in baseball, is still going pretty strong as he approaches 2500 hits and 380 HRs, 4 GGs, 4 SS...I don't know if he is going to be a HOFer, but his play, combined with his quirky head thing, makes him a really fun player to watch...


He might get Santo'd for the hof. It's been said plenty of times, but 3rd baseman get the shaft in the voting.

Just for comparison sake best bWar for Santo vs Beltre

Santo----Beltre
9.8---9.5
8.9---7.8
8.9---7.2
7.7---5.8
6.7---5.6
6.4---5.4
5.5---5.4
4.9---3.9
4.2---3.8

Beltre gets helped by having a longer career to equalize the career total, but Santo got screwed over by the writers, hopefully the increase in stat awareness will help Beltre's future cause(although 3000 hits will also go a long way in helping him out)
   4. Greg K Posted: May 24, 2014 at 09:03 PM (#4712950)
I never thought I'd say this, but I love Adrian Beltre.

What's the background behind this? I've only ever followed Beltre's career from afar, but he seems like one bad-ass player, and a fun guy.
   5. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: May 24, 2014 at 09:35 PM (#4712971)
Consider, though: Under the current qualifying offer system, there is no way Boston wouldn't have offered Beltre the QA, in the hopes of reaching a multi-year deal with Beltre.


I could be misremembering, but I thought they couldn't have both him and Adrian Gonzalez for salary reasons (or possible "Adrian overflow").
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 24, 2014 at 10:20 PM (#4712992)
I never thought I'd say this, but I love Adrian Beltre.

What's the background behind this? I've only ever followed Beltre's career from afar, but he seems like one bad-ass player, and a fun guy.


I didn't mean that he had overcome a negative reputation or anything - it's just that I never really thought of him as standing out among a larger pool of solid ballplayers. But he continues to play at a high level, and his personality seems to come through in a number of positive ways over the years.
   7. valuearbitrageur Posted: May 24, 2014 at 10:29 PM (#4712995)
Beltre should pass the Jeter line within the next month.



Beltre WAA - 39.6.

He's already way ahead.
   8. shoewizard Posted: May 24, 2014 at 10:38 PM (#4713003)
I think everyone is way overstating Beltre's offense compared to Jeter

Jeter 364.3 Batting Runs in 12140 PA, or one every .30 PA
Beltre 177.7 Bating Runs in 9,526 PA, or one every .19 PA

That's not position adjusted.

Add in Baserunning and rDP runs and the gap gets bigger, Jeter .35 to Beltre .18

I really like Beltre a lot too, but OPS+ overrates him and underrates Jeter.
   9. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: May 24, 2014 at 10:49 PM (#4713008)
Consider, though: Under the current qualifying offer system, there is no way Boston wouldn't have offered Beltre the QA, in the hopes of reaching a multi-year deal with Beltre. The old "I'll get my client a one-year deal to rebuild his value" is less attractive a ploy now, because if your client has too good a year, they'll get stuck with the qualifying offer.


Nope. A smart agent would have them sign the one-year deal after the team plays their first game.
   10. shoewizard Posted: May 24, 2014 at 11:02 PM (#4713014)
Batting, Baserunning and RDP runs for active players, minimum 3000 PA, sorted by rate

(No position adjustment)

Top 30

Player ttl runs PA rate
Albert Pujols 662.3 8750 .076
Joey Votto 250 3963 .063
Ryan Braun 264.3 4238 .062
Alex Rodriguez 688.2 11344 .061
Miguel Cabrera 433.4 7313 .059
Andrew McCutchen 178.8 3377 .053
Matt Holliday 304.9 6324 .048
Jason Giambi 421 8854 .048
Hanley Ramirez 231.9 4966 .047
Shin-Soo Choo 177 3858 .046
David Wright 281.3 6155 .046
Chase Utley 256.3 5853 .044
Joe Mauer 226 5237 .043
Josh Hamilton 158.8 3820 .042
Bobby Abreu 402.2 9960 .040
David Ortiz 338.3 8443 .040
Prince Fielder 224.9 5790 .039
Evan Longoria 138.4 3623 .038
Mark Teixeira 250.4 6754 .037
Adrian Gonzalez 208.5 5874 .035
Carlos Beltran 322.2 9089 .035
Derek Jeter 426.5 12140 .035
Matt Kemp 139.1 4058 .034
Jayson Werth 154.1 4665 .033
Carlos Gonzalez 99.1 3013 .033
Mike Napoli 111.3 3414 .033
Jose Bautista 144.7 4519 .032
Robinson Cano 182.7 5990 .031
Grady Sizemore 127.4 4180 .030
Ryan Howard 157.3 5204 .030


Bottom 15

Elvis Andrus -25.3 3492 -.007
Yadier Molina -37.6 4782 -.008
Alexei Ramirez -31.5 3922 -.008
J.J. Hardy -44.1 4751 -.009
Jeff Keppinger -38.7 3156 -.012
A.J. Pierzynski -87.2 6896 -.013
Jeff Francoeur -82 4959 -.017
Kurt Suzuki -61.5 3419 -.018
Juan Uribe -118.5 5815 -.020
John Buck -88.8 3948 -.022
Miguel Olivo -104.6 3993 -.026
Endy Chavez -85.4 3178 -.027
Nick Punto -99.2 3606 -.028
Clint Barmes -122.3 3872 -.032
Alex Gonzalez -198.3 6248 -.032

   11. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: May 24, 2014 at 11:12 PM (#4713016)
No current cubs in the bottom 15 wohoo
   12. shoewizard Posted: May 24, 2014 at 11:14 PM (#4713017)
Couple other Data points on Jeter vs. Beltre

Career wRC+ Jeter 121, Beltre 113

Fangraphs WAR, Jete 73.9, Beltre 65.4

EDIT: Sorry, missed that so cal posted the wRC+

   13. shoewizard Posted: May 24, 2014 at 11:19 PM (#4713018)
No current cubs in the bottom 15 wohoo


If they keep playing Bonifacio and Barney for another couple of years they'll get there.
   14. Greg K Posted: May 24, 2014 at 11:23 PM (#4713021)
I didn't mean that he had overcome a negative reputation or anything - it's just that I never really thought of him as standing out among a larger pool of solid ballplayers. But he continues to play at a high level, and his personality seems to come through in a number of positive ways over the years.

Ah I read ya!

Beltre certainly has an odd career arc. For a while it seemed like he'd be remembered as a fluke player for that 48 home run season. Then as a disappointing big contract guy in Seattle. Now he's played such a key role on probably the best run Texas has ever had, it's hard to even picture him with the Mariners, never mind the Dodgers.
   15. Greg K Posted: May 24, 2014 at 11:25 PM (#4713022)
If they keep playing Bonifacio and Barney for another couple of years they'll get there.

Wow, Bonifacio didn't waste any time getting his season line back in accordance with his career numbers after that hot start.
   16. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 25, 2014 at 12:51 AM (#4713041)
If anyone hasn't seen this before, it's a cute compilation video of Elvis Andrus messing around with Adrian Beltre.
   17. Good cripple hitter Posted: May 25, 2014 at 01:51 AM (#4713047)
Jeff Francoeur


He could still make it back, he's got 8 strikeouts per 9 innings so far (4.1 IP) in AAA.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: May 25, 2014 at 02:49 AM (#4713050)
Yep, Jeter's 46 point edge in OBP is a bit hard to overcome. Some of that is probably LA and Seattle park effects but that's a huge difference.

That per PA gap gets even bigger if you ignore Jeter's last few thousand PA. In his first 9758 PA, Jeter had 368 Rbat and 63 other; in 9530, Beltre stands at 178 and -5. That's less than half.

Beltre's biggest hurdle to the HoF is, great defense numbers or not, he's got only 4 GG. As a 3B, his better comp is probably Brooks -- fairly similar, SLG-driven hitters, great defenders -- moreso than Santo -- huge OBP, very good defense. Beltre does beat Brooks pretty handily on offense, even if you ignore Brooks' horrible late-career bat, but the same can be said on defense. They sit dead equal in WAA, Beltre is 7 WAR behind. Give Beltre about 3 full average seasons from here on out and he and Brooks will be dead even in WAR, WAA and PA.

But of course Brooks has more GG than Lindsay Lohan has rehab visits -- ha! Rightly or not, Beltre doesn't have that rep. Of course 8 years from now (or whenever he hits the ballot), the defensive stats might be more accepted by the voters but I'm not holding my breath.

Rolen's in a similar boat. His better comp is probably Santo although they have "short" careers for different reasons. Both are more OBP driven. Rolen's a better glove (and more GG) and has more WAA than Santo though. But I don't think Rolen's got much of a chance -- he's the Larry Walker of 3B. Also Rolen hitting the ballot anywhere near Chipper will not be good for him.
   19. JE (Jason) Posted: May 25, 2014 at 05:40 AM (#4713058)
Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre is apparently not a fan of people touching his head.

Has the author been living under a rock for the past several years? This GIF from last year of Andrus messing with Beltre was borderline priceless.
   20. thok Posted: May 25, 2014 at 06:28 AM (#4713060)
Beltre's biggest hurdle to the HoF is, great defense numbers or not, he's got only 4 GG.


Of course, Beltre's biggest asset is that he's "only" 35, and still has time to benefit from a graceful decline stage. The easiest path for him to enter the Hall Of Fame is to just pick up another 500 hits to make it to 3000.
   21. SoCalDemon Posted: May 25, 2014 at 09:53 AM (#4713083)
Beltre WAA - 39.6.

He's already way ahead.


I think everyone is way overstating Beltre's offense compared to Jeter


Fangraphs WAR, Jete 73.9, Beltre 65.4


I agree with all of these, actually :) I only wanted to point out that Beltre is about to pass Jeter on bWAR. I think Jeter is clearly better than Beltre, offensively. But I do think the gap is smaller than a lot of people think (Beltre until his last few years has played in pretty unfriendly stadiums. Personally, I think wRC does a pretty good job of showing that gap, a good chunk of the Batting Runs gap is playing time, rather than rate (but Jeter is clearly better). But I also think Beltre has pretty clearly been a better PLAYER on a rate basis, all things considered, which both bref and fangraphs agree on (but obviously, if Beltre has 3000 below average AB, that might change). My original comment was not to disparage Jeter; just to point out that Beltre is pretty awesome.

Re #4: I won't speak for anyone else, but personally, through Beltre's Seattle tenure, I thought he was an insanely gifted player, that sadly, hadn't been able to put it all together, other than in one season (A 4 win season as a 20 year old makes one dream). And then, pretty suddenly, after his season in Boston, my view of Beltre shifted to, oh damn, once you account for defense, he might be pretty good, and then after his seasons in Texas, now I think he's been pretty clearly one of the top 5 players of the last 15 years (Pujols, Rodriguez,Cabrera, I put him above Jeter, lets leave Trout out of the equation for the time being, who else?). I can't think of any other recent player, that for me, came completely out of nowhere to "duh, obvious HOFer".
   22. puck Posted: May 25, 2014 at 01:34 PM (#4713127)
If anyone hasn't seen this before, it's a cute compilation video of Elvis Andrus messing around with Adrian Beltre.


Andrus messes around with Beltran when he's under pop flies?
   23. Baldrick Posted: May 25, 2014 at 03:21 PM (#4713149)
Re #4: I won't speak for anyone else, but personally, through Beltre's Seattle tenure, I thought he was an insanely gifted player, that sadly, hadn't been able to put it all together, other than in one season (A 4 win season as a 20 year old makes one dream). And then, pretty suddenly, after his season in Boston, my view of Beltre shifted to, oh damn, once you account for defense, he might be pretty good, and then after his seasons in Texas, now I think he's been pretty clearly one of the top 5 players of the last 15 years (Pujols, Rodriguez,Cabrera, I put him above Jeter, lets leave Trout out of the equation for the time being, who else?). I can't think of any other recent player, that for me, came completely out of nowhere to "duh, obvious HOFer".

Bonds is still one of the five best players of the past 15 years, I think.
   24. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 25, 2014 at 04:17 PM (#4713169)
Beltre's biggest hurdle to the HoF is, great defense numbers or not, he's got only 4 GG.

There's that, but Beltre's Hall chances are also hurt by doing his career "backwards". He had 6 years as a Dodger without looking like a Hall of Famer, then hit 48 HRs in his final year. Much of the credit for that final year was washed away by 5 so-so years in Seattle. Lots of folk got used to thinking of Beltre without any thought that he was a potential Hall of Famer. He was very good for Boston & Texas, but it may not be enough to change perceptions. Easier to make the Hall with a good start that has people thinking "this guy could make the HoF if he keeps it up and stays healthy". Moving around so much in his career has also caused some to lose track of what Beltre has done. 3,000 hits will get people focused on his career again, but falling short may not be enough if he's regarded as a "mere compiler".
   25. baxter Posted: May 25, 2014 at 05:39 PM (#4713194)
The 2001 appendectomy cost him playing time and development. His breakout year may have occured earlier had it not been for that.

Other Beltre threads have noted that when players are as good at the young an age they become stars. Others here have also noted that Beltre is probably a tough player, the type who plays through injuries.

It is great to see him play to his potential; hopefully he stays healthy. If so, he'll have the counting stats to get in, along with some nice rate stats.

I noticed Graig Nettles only had two gold gloves; overlapping Brooks Robinson will do that.

Robinson and Beltre both started young; Robinson had only one really good season at the plate after the age of 35. Beltre is looking really good after coming back from the injury earlier this season. A good player to root for.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Infinite Joost (Voxter)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogFangraphs/Cistulli: Post-trade WAR for deadline trades
(5 - 10:22am, Sep 30)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogAL WILD CARD GAME 2014 OMNICHATTER
(18 - 10:19am, Sep 30)
Last: boteman is not here 'til October

NewsblogMLB’s Biggest Star Is 40 (And He Just Retired). That Could Be A Problem.
(28 - 10:17am, Sep 30)
Last: Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(8141 - 10:10am, Sep 30)
Last: Kurt

NewsblogOT August 2014:  Wrassle Mania I
(264 - 10:07am, Sep 30)
Last: Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge

NewsblogMets close season optimistic for next year
(57 - 10:07am, Sep 30)
Last: billyshears

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2014 Discussion
(11 - 10:01am, Sep 30)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogMadden: How dare the sabermetrics crowd and others try to diminish Derek Jeter’s greatness
(146 - 9:59am, Sep 30)
Last: Ron J2

NewsblogThe Calm-Before-The-Storm and Postseason Prediction OMNICHATTER, 2014
(87 - 9:59am, Sep 30)
Last: Rusty Priske

NewsblogRemembering George ‘Shotgun’ Shuba, 1924-2014
(7 - 9:49am, Sep 30)
Last: Accent Shallow

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-30-2014
(4 - 9:30am, Sep 30)
Last: bobm

NewsblogBaseball Past & Present: Vote: The 25 Most Important People in Baseball History.
(283 - 9:19am, Sep 30)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(440 - 8:49am, Sep 30)
Last: Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14!

NewsblogESPN: Ron Gardenhire out after 13 Seasons with Twins
(39 - 8:48am, Sep 30)
Last: Bug Selig

NewsblogAttanasio discusses Brewers collapse, changes coming for 2015
(127 - 7:04am, Sep 30)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

Page rendered in 0.4306 seconds
52 querie(s) executed