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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Mike Pelfrey Placed On Disabled List With Swelling In Pitching Elbow

Big Shelf.

So much for Mike Pelfrey the reliable innings-eater.

Big Pelf is heading to the disabled list this afternoon after an MRI revealed swelling in his right elbow. Over the course of his career with the Mets, Pelfrey has been described as many things, but he has been a fairly consistent back-of-the-rotation pitcher since he joined the team.

Through three starts this year, Pelfrey has pitched uncharacteristically well. His 2.29 ERA, 2.22 FIP, and 3.10 xFIP were all much better than his career numbers, thanks to a slightly higher strikeout rate and significantly lower walk rate. Chances are he would have returned to his career norms, but it looks like he’ll be out for a while.

Repoz Posted: April 24, 2012 at 04:56 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: continuousmetsinjuries

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1. Ray (RDP)

Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4115060)

Did the Mets place another player on the DL this week? Because Mike Francesa said yesterday that the Mets would put someone on the DL and he didn't know who, but "the only thing the Mets have told me is that it's not a starting pitcher."

2. aleskel

Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4115071)

Did the Mets place another player on the DL this week?

Jason Bay

3. Why Bloody Valdespin? Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4115078)

Also Ronny Cedeno, if he counts. Losing Jason Bay and Mike Pelfrey shouldn't be such a terrible thing, but this team really has no depth. Mike Baxter is starting in left tonight, and he is probably actually the best option.

4. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4115085)

Also Ronny Cedeno, if he counts. Losing Jason Bay and Mike Pelfrey shouldn't be such a terrible thing, but this team really has no depth. Mike Baxter is starting in left tonight, and he is probably actually the best option.

Man, we could use an F-Mart right about now (292/356/492 right now in the PCL.)

5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4115086)

Because Mike Francesa said yesterday that the Mets would put someone on the DL and he didn't know who, but "the only thing the Mets have told me is that it's not a starting pitcher

Jason Bay

Look, if you're going to make up names, at least make them realistic.

6. Dan Posted: April 24, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4115138)

Source: Pelfrey had partial UCL tear

Mets officials are aware that Mike Pelfrey has suffered a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and are bracing to lose the right-hander to season-ending surgery, a major league source told ESPNNewYork.com.

Sandy Alderson allowed for that possibility on Tuesday afternoon when he noted a ligament tear had not been ruled out.

Pelfrey is expected to seek a second opinion before committing to any procedure.

7. JE (Jason Epstein)

Posted: April 24, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4115139)

Because Mike Francesa said yesterday that the Mets would put someone on the DL and he didn't know who, but "the only thing the Mets have told me is that it's not a starting pitcher."

Just for kicks, Jay Horowitz should have told Francesa that it was Al Alburquerque.

8. Bruce Markusen Posted: April 24, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4115155)

And the Mets continue to be the National League's version of the New Jersey Nets: injury... after injury ... after injury.

9. Squash Posted: April 24, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4115200)

And the Mets continue to be the National League's version of the New Jersey Nets: injury... after injury ... after injury.

You didn't say this, but I think there are about 10 teams in MLB whose fans are convinced their team suffers more injuries than anyone else. I guess the truth is just that baseball players are injury prone.

10. Lassus Posted: April 24, 2012 at 09:19 PM (#4115270)

Good lord.

Honestly, Bay has been not-terrible at this point, so I don't like losing him. Well, at least he's hit a couple of home runs.

11. RJ in TO Posted: April 24, 2012 at 09:28 PM (#4115285)

but he has been a fairly consistent back-of-the-rotation pitcher since he joined the team.

He's been a back-of-the-rotation guy, but I can't see how "fairly consistent" is an accurate description of him. From 2007 to 2011, his ERA+ have been 78, 113, 81, 107, and 78.

12. bobm Posted: April 24, 2012 at 09:33 PM (#4115297)

[10] Bay has been okay, but consider the following from B-R ...

2014 - [Age] 35 - New York Mets - [Salary] *$17,000,000 - $17M Vesting Option, $3M Buyout - 600 PAs in 2013 or 500 PAs in both 2012 and 2013

13. Gamingboy Posted: April 24, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4115300)

Balance the humours!

14. Lassus Posted: April 24, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4115303)

12 - I understand the argument, but as I'm not paying his salary, I don't care. I just want him to play because I like him and again - not doing terribly. I see no point in (me) feeling agita about his salary.

15. Elvis Posted: April 24, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4115323)

Mike Pelfrey's peripherals show exactly how consistent he's been the past four years. Here are his yearly xFIPs:

4.45, 4.47, 4.31, 4.55

It's hard to imagine a guy more consistent than that.

16. Bruce Markusen Posted: April 24, 2012 at 10:04 PM (#4115342)

I'm not a Mets fan, but I can say with some certainty that the Mets have had more than an average share of injuries over the past five seasons. And not just in terms of volume, but in terms of key players: Reyes, Wright, Santana are their three best over that time, and all have had long stints on the DL. The current DL has Torres, Bay, and Pelfrey. Who am I missing?

Now, I am a New Jersey Nets fan. And statistically, they have lost more man-games than any team in the NBA this year. Every player on the team has missed at least a game, they have gone two stretches without their best player, Deron Williams; their second-best player, Brook Lopez has played all of five games; and seven players have gone down for the season with season-ending injuries, including their top two centers, their top two small forwards, and one of their best bench players. Seven players! That's half of the 14-man NBA roster.

The Mets aren't at the Nets' level just yet, but let's give them time.

17. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: April 24, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4115379)

Mike Pelfrey's peripherals show exactly how consistent he's been the past four years. Here are his yearly xFIPs:

4.45, 4.47, 4.31, 4.55

Which, when compared to his actual ERAs, show you the danger of being a pitch who doesn't strike anyone out: you are hugely at the mercy of your BABIP

18. Ravecc Posted: April 24, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4115392)

So Schwinden will take Pelf's spot? I think prefer Hefner. Heck bring them both up and dump Batista.

Bay going down just decimates the middle of the order with Davis currently discombobulated.

The good news is, Johan looked really good tonight.

Also, Zajac!!!! (whew)

19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 24, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4115451)

Mike Pelfrey's peripherals show exactly how consistent he's been the past four years. Here are his yearly xFIPs:

4.45, 4.47, 4.31, 4.55

It's hard to imagine a guy more consistent than that.

xFIP is not a useful stat because HR/Contact is a better predictor of HR rate than FB/Contact. Using FB rate just reduces variance, creating the illusion of improved accuracy. (See Colin Wyers' article on xFIP and SIERA from 2011).

Pelfrey has a pretty consistent .300-315 BABIP, but in his bad years he's given up quite a few more homers. The inconsistency in his homer rate has been a major driver of Pelfrey's inconsistency, and xFIP shouldn't be used to regress that away.

20. Loren F. Posted: April 24, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4115459)

Maybe Bay only went on the DL today as an homage to Reyes.

21. PreservedFish Posted: April 25, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4115473)

Which, when compared to his actual ERAs, show you the danger of being a pitch who doesn't strike anyone out: you are hugely at the mercy of your BABIP

I see variations of this point all the time, and I am skeptical. If you strike out fewer hitters, sure, you are more reliant on your BABIP. But your BABIP is also less likely to have weird fluctuations, because the sample is larger.

If the point is that a .360 BABIP is going to hurt Pelfrey more than Lincecum, ok, I agree. But I don't think it's obviously true that Pelfrey is more at the mercy of luck than Lincecum is.

22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 25, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4115476)

Which, when compared to his actual ERAs, show you the danger of being a pitch who doesn't strike anyone out: you are hugely at the mercy of your BABIP

Whether this is true or not in general, it doesn't apply to Mike Pelfrey 2008-2011. His BABIP was nearly as consistent as his K and BB rates. The big driver of his inconsistency was homers allowed.

23. Gonna break my Rusty Kuntz and run . . . Arbitol Posted: April 25, 2012 at 07:55 AM (#4115533)

So much for his "new delivery."

24. formerly dp Posted: April 25, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4115565)

Honestly, Bay has been not-terrible at this point, so I don't like losing him.

I wanted to disagree with the first part of this, then I looked-- he has not been terrible. But he has struck out 17 times in 57 PAs so far. Not as bad as Pedro Alvarez (16 K in 38 PA, and only 1 BB), but still pretty bad.

At least this clears a path for uber-prospect Mike Baxter :>

I don't think losing Bay will sting too badly once Torres comes back-- basically they'll have Torres, Nieuwenhuis, and Hairston splitting time between CF and LF. Bay's not really much better than any of them.

Chris Young will be in the rotation hopefully mid-May, at least for a start or two before he gets hurt again.

25. Ravecc Posted: April 25, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4115714)

That’s “Whitestone’s own Mike Baxter”. Also known as “Whitestone native and Archbishop Molloy grad Mike Baxter”.

Torres should be back by Monday. I’ll keep Niewie in CF and stick Andres in LF.

The question is what to do with Valdespin. He needs regular ab’s, but Murphy is fixed at 2B and Niewie’s at CF. They’re all lefties so they can’t even platoon. But he's also nominally the backup SS. Should they play him over Tejada once in a while?

26. Lassus Posted: April 25, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4115726)

and Hairston splitting time between CF and LF. Bay's not really much better than any of them.

Hairston is hitting .160 or something. He sucks, period. The only discussion regarding him and a Bay involves walking into Flushing's and never coming back.

27. formerly dp Posted: April 25, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4115759)

Given that his option vests based on playing time, the less Bay plays in '12 and '13, the better. And Hairston was a better hitter last year than Bay. Neither should be starting in LF for the Mets, but at least Hairston won't cost $17 M in 2015 if he plays everyday. Bay's trying to be a good player, and I'd love to see him return to form, but he hasn't shown any indications he's close to doing so. He's basically a mistake hitter right now, and not a particularly consistent one.

28. Lassus Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4115783)

And Hairston was a better hitter last year than Bay. Neither should be starting in LF for the Mets, but at least Hairston won't cost $17 M in 2015 if he plays everyday. Bay's trying to be a good player, and I'd love to see him return to form, but he hasn't shown any indications he's close to doing so.

Last year is last year and 3 HRs in 57 PA disagrees with your wording a bit, that is AN indication that he is or has potential to be close, quibbling and sample size arguments accepted. How much playing time vests the option? Hairston is just so awful, we'd be better off giving some kid the ABs.

29. formerly dp Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4115817)

3 HRs in 57 PA disagrees with your wording a bit, that is AN indication that he is or has potential to be close

The 17 Ks suggest otherwise. The HRs have been nice, but otherwise he has looked as clueless at the plate as ever. Again, would love to see a return to form, but there's nothing to suggest that's happening. The mistake HRs are nice, but I'm not sure why we'd read anything into it, especially when combined with the fact that he's striking out at a higher rate than last year, and not hitting much otherwise.

I do think it's pointless to read very much into stats when we're only a couple of weeks into the season (I hope Davis isn't going to hit .135 all season), which is why I'm content maintaining the pessimism Bay earned the last two years.

How much playing time vests the option?

According to B-Ref, 500 PAs in '12 and '13 or 600 in '13.

Hairston is just so awful, we'd be better off giving some kid the ABs.

Agreed, totally. Which is why I was against letting F-Mart go, but I have since been convinced (by people here-- were you one of them?) it was the right move.

30. Mark S. is bored Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4115830)

It's getting serious, Dr. James Andrews has been invoked:

Although many teammates speculate that Mike Pelfrey will require season-ending Tommy John surgery, those responsible for the decision are taking a cautious approach, and have not resigned themselves to that outcome.

According to major league sources, the Mets were in the process Wednesday of sending film of Pelfrey’s MRI exam to noted surgeon Dr. James Andrews, but no plans had been made for Pelfrey to visit the doctor in Alabama.

The MRI taken Tuesday showed swelling in Pelfrey’s right elbow, but neither the pitcher nor his team is convinced there is a significant tear, according to people on both sides.

31. Lassus Posted: April 25, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4115837)

Which is why I was against letting F-Mart go, but I have since been convinced (by people here-- were you one of them?) it was the right move.

I've never had much opinion of Martinez; it seemed dumb to let him go, but then again, it wasn't like keeping him was doing us much good either.

32. Ravecc Posted: April 25, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4115863)

Hairston is just so awful, we'd be better off giving some kid the ABs.

I nominate Juan Lagares.

33. Ravecc Posted: April 25, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4115869)

It's getting serious, Dr. James Andrews has been invoked

So what do the Braves want for Jurrgens?

34. formerly dp Posted: April 25, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4115878)

I nominate Juan Lagares.

Sold. But I doubt they'll actually sit Bay. You don't want Lagares up in Hairston's spot, pinch hitting and getting spot starts. Which is why Hairston's a Met for now.

It could be worse-- we could have brought Harris back. The Reds have given him 28 ABs already. He owns a -14 OPS+. Impressive.

35. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4115922)

So Schwinden will take Pelf's spot? I think prefer Hefner.

I know Mets fans have been beaten to a pulp by injuries and collapses over the last 5 years, but when I read this as "I think I prefer Hitler.", I thought it was over the line.

My goodness, the Mets have had a long string of injuries. The Phils have tried to catch them in the injury department the last 3 years, but the Mets have been at it longer. I am almost at the point of feeling sorry for the Mets fans.

36. Mark S. is bored Posted: April 26, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4117091)

And it's Tommy John for Pelfrey.

This could mark the end of Pelfrey's career with the Mets. He's arbitration eligible one more time, but is making $5.6875 million this year, making him a definite non-tender candidate in December.

Mets would need to offer minimum of $4.55M (80% of $5.6875M) if they want to keep him next year.

37. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: April 26, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4117106)

38. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 26, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4117141)

Man, we could use an F-Mart right about now (292/356/492 right now in the PCL.)

45th in OPS in the PCl right now
87th in OPS in the IL 2011
70th in OPS in the IL in 2010

what about being nice to Val Pascucci and let him have some PT in the show?

or seeing if Zach Lutz can fake playing LF?

at this point FMart is nothing more than another fungible AAAA outfielder

39. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 26, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4117143)

speaking of met OFs, Nieuwenhuis is trying really hard to make it really hard for the Mets to demote him if/when Torres comes back

40. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 26, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4117144)

double post

41. Conor Posted: April 26, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4117156)

Mets would need to offer minimum of $4.55M (80% of $5.6875M) if they want to keep him next year.

Could they not just non tender and try and re-sign him? or do i have the rule wrong?

42. Lassus Posted: April 26, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4117172)

You don't want Lagares up in Hairston's spot, pinch hitting and getting spot starts.

You don't? I certainly do.

Nieuwenhuis is trying really hard to make it really hard for the Mets to demote him if/when Torres comes back

I'm fine with Torres never coming back.

43. Conor Posted: April 26, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4117176)

I would prefer Torres in CF and Niewenhus in a corner.

I also think Hairston is a player who looks really bad at times, but he can hit left handed pitching pretty well.

44. PreservedFish Posted: April 26, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4117182)

I don't have a problem with Hairston. He's a decent 4th outfielder.

Nieuwenhuis is obviously the interesting fellow right now. I always had him pegged as a very good 4th outfielder (Jason Michaels or Reed Johnson), but it would be nuts not to let him start and see what happens. Also, does his name mean "New House" in Dutch, or something like that?

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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Mike Pelfrey Placed On Disabled List With Swelling In Pitching Elbow

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