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Sunday, June 08, 2014

Mike Schmidt: Rollins having HOF career

Rollins: “And it infuriates you to watch yourself with your apparent skill at finding every way possible to screw it up.”

As Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins closes in on the franchise’s record for career hits, the man he’s about to pass says Rollins is building a progressively stronger case for Hall of Fame consideration.

Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, who holds the Phillies’ career record with 2,234 hits, said he expects Rollins to continue playing at a productive level for three or four more seasons. Rollins recently passed Richie Ashburn to move into second place on the Phillies’ hits list. He enters Tuesday night’s game at Washington with 2,225 hits—nine fewer than Schmidt.

“My assessment would be that if Barry Larkin is in the Hall of Fame, you’ve got to think about Jimmy Rollins,” said Schmidt, a part-time member of the Phillies’ broadcast team. “The importance for him is to finish out strong the next three to four years and continue to be a force.

“I can’t see Jimmy Rollins as a bench player or a DH. I can’t see him sort of tailing off or hanging around. I see him being an offensive force and a great defensive player for the rest of his career. If you add that to where he is now, he’s going to get some consideration for the Hall of Fame.”

...Pete Rose, baseball’s all-time hits leader who played for the Phillies for parts of six seasons, took the opposite side of Schmidt’s pro-Rollins stance. On Wednesday he told 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia that Rollins puts personal milestones ahead of his team.

“Here’s a guy that’s worried about Philly records and not Philly championships,” Rose said Wednesday. “How is it gonna change his life if he gets more hits? ... He’s not gonna get more home runs than Mike Schmidt got, he’s not going to get more RBIs then Mike Schmidt got. So when he says he’s looking for Philly records, what Philly records is he talking about?

Later, Rose added, “Rollins has always been a problem as far as I’m concerned. He’s been a very good ballplayer but he could never figure out did he want to be a leadoff hitter, did he want to be a second-place hitter, did he want to be a home-run hitter. I think the worst thing that ever happened to Jimmy Rollins was winning the MVP. I think that’s the worst thing to ever happen to him. He has just never figured out where you’re going to hit him in the lineup to get the most out of Jimmy Rollins.”

One of Rollins’ biggest obstacles to Hall of Fame consideration will be his .328 career on-base percentage. Similar to one of Rose’s points, Schmidt said Rollins’ focus on hitting with power might have hurt his production in other areas.

“I don’t want to disrespect him when I say this, but Jimmy may swing for the home run a little too often, and I think that’s dragged his batting average down,” Schmidt said. “I believe Jimmy could have been a Tony Gwynn-kind of a hitter.

“Jimmy can hit one 400 feet—he really can. Knowing that, over time, he’ll probably look back when he gets done with his career and say, ‘I wish I had never hit a home run.’ He probably would have had well over a .300 career batting average, but the influence of wanting to juice the ball and put it in the air too often and maybe not on a line enough dragged his batting average down. But still, he’s very productive.”

Repoz Posted: June 08, 2014 at 08:55 AM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: June 08, 2014 at 10:30 AM (#4721240)
No. No he's not.
   2. bobm Posted: June 08, 2014 at 10:40 AM (#4721242)
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, Playing for the PHI, From 1901 to 2014, sorted by greatest WAA Position Players

                                                                            
Rk            Player WAA/pos oWAR  dWAR From   To   Age    G    PA       Pos
1       Mike Schmidt    73.3 90.9  17.6 1972 1989 22-39 2404 10062   *53/H64
2        Chase Utley    42.4 45.5  16.9 2003 2014 24-35 1379  5923    *4/H3D
3        Bobby Abreu    29.5 42.9  -1.9 1998 2006 24-32 1353  5885    *9/H8D
4     Richie Ashburn    27.7 49.3   7.9 1948 1959 21-32 1794  8223    *8/7H9
5       Sherry Magee    27.1 46.7  -6.8 1904 1914 19-29 1521  6312  *7/93684
6         Dick Allen    19.5 42.9  -9.7 1963 1976 21-34 1070  4511 *537/H684
7        Scott Rolen    18.3 24.3   6.0 1996 2002 21-27  844  3643      *5/H
8    Johnny Callison    17.5 32.6  -0.4 1960 1969 21-30 1432  5930    *97/H8
9      Gavvy Cravath    17.3 33.5  -8.5 1912 1920 31-39 1104  4238    *9/H78
10     Jimmy Rollins    17.1 39.6  13.0 2000 2014 21-35 2009  9156    *6/HD4
11       Chuck Klein    16.4 39.7 -10.7 1928 1944 23-39 1405  5772   *97H/83
12     Lenny Dykstra    16.1 22.3   4.1 1989 1996 26-33  734  3374     *8/H7
13        Roy Thomas    14.4 26.2  -0.5 1901 1911 27-37  996  4411      *8/9
14      Garry Maddox    12.2 17.2  10.8 1975 1986 25-36 1328  5039     *8/H7


   3. Publius Publicola Posted: June 08, 2014 at 10:46 AM (#4721244)
He will probably make it to 50 WAR and if he does that, he wouldn't be a terrible choice.
   4. Moeball Posted: June 08, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4721246)
It's tough to really make a case for Rollins as far as I can see:

1)As bobm shows above, per BRef, Rollins only has a WAA of 17, which is only 10th on his own team. Among MLB shortstops historically, it's only 35th

2)Only 43 career WAR doesn't rank too high, either.

3)Don't like WAR or WAA? How about he has a career OPS+ of 97 - for all Schmidt's and Rose's talking about Rollins' hitting accomplishments, he's actually been a below average hitter for his career. You can get away with that if you field like Ozzie Smith or close to it, but Rollins isn't that great defensively.

I just don't see it. He's been good, but he's not been great. I'm not sure he's even HOM, much less HOF.
   5. bobm Posted: June 08, 2014 at 10:49 AM (#4721248)
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2014, Played 50% of games at SS, sorted by greatest WAA Position Players


                                                                         
Rk              Player WAA/pos  oWAR dWAR From   To   Age    G    PA    H
1         Honus Wagner    82.2 106.6 21.2 1901 1917 27-43 2299  9640 2766
2           Cal Ripken    53.1  77.2 34.6 1981 2001 20-40 3001 12883 3184
3         Arky Vaughan    47.3  70.9 12.0 1932 1948 20-36 1817  7722 2103
4         Barry Larkin    42.2  67.5 13.8 1986 2004 22-40 2180  9057 2340
5         Lou Boudreau    42.2  50.3 23.3 1938 1952 20-34 1646  7024 1779
6          Ozzie Smith    41.6  47.8 43.4 1978 1996 23-41 2573 10778 2460
7         Luke Appling    41.5  70.6 19.0 1930 1950 23-43 2422 10254 2749
8        Alan Trammell    40.2  62.4 22.0 1977 1996 19-38 2293  9376 2365
9          Robin Yount    37.0  82.2  5.8 1974 1993 18-37 2856 12249 3142
10          Joe Cronin    35.9  63.6 14.2 1926 1945 19-38 2124  8840 2285
11         Derek Jeter    31.8  94.5 -9.1 1995 2014 21-40 2654 12198 3370
12       Pee Wee Reese    31.7  55.6 25.6 1940 1958 21-39 2166  9470 2170
13          Joe Tinker    30.5  32.5 34.3 1902 1916 21-35 1806  7153 1690
14       Bobby Wallace    28.6  43.2 24.5 1901 1918 27-44 1743  6902 1618
15        Art Fletcher    27.6  30.1 28.3 1909 1922 24-37 1533  6040 1534
16     Troy Tulowitzki    25.0  28.0 13.4 2006 2014 21-29  929  3933 1034
17         Jim Fregosi    24.5  50.1  7.8 1961 1978 19-36 1902  7403 1726
18   Nomar Garciaparra    24.2  42.6  6.0 1996 2009 22-35 1434  6116 1747
19       Vern Stephens    24.2  45.5  9.1 1941 1955 20-34 1720  7241 1859
20          Joe Sewell    23.1  53.8  9.1 1920 1933 21-34 1903  8333 2226
21       Dave Bancroft    23.1  39.0 23.5 1915 1930 24-39 1913  8249 2004
22      Travis Jackson    22.7  30.6 22.9 1922 1936 18-32 1657  6680 1768
23        George Davis    22.4  27.8 16.2 1901 1909 30-38  990  4056  937
24     Bert Campaneris    21.3  47.4 20.8 1964 1983 22-41 2328  9625 2249
25        Phil Rizzuto    20.8  28.1 22.9 1941 1956 23-38 1661  6719 1588
Rk              Player WAA/pos  oWAR dWAR From   To   Age    G    PA    H
26       Luis Aparicio    20.4  41.9 31.6 1956 1973 22-39 2601 11230 2677
27      Hanley Ramirez    19.0  43.1 -4.4 2005 2014 21-30 1154  5014 1333
28       Rafael Furcal    18.5  32.2 14.4 2000 2012 22-34 1605  7200 1811
29       Mark Belanger    18.0  14.6 39.4 1965 1982 21-38 2016  6601 1316
30       John Valentin    17.3  24.8 11.7 1992 2002 25-35 1105  4511 1093
31       Jimmy Rollins    17.1  39.6 13.0 2000 2014 21-35 2009  9156 2229
32      Tony Fernandez    16.9  41.6 14.2 1983 2001 21-39 2158  8793 2276
33         Bill Dahlen    16.9  25.3 17.4 1901 1911 31-41 1203  4805 1045
34          Jose Reyes    16.5  36.3  4.1 2003 2014 20-31 1349  6185 1646
35       Miguel Tejada    15.9  51.5  5.9 1997 2013 23-39 2171  9205 2407


NB:

                                                                          
Player           WAA/pos  oWAR dWAR From   To   Age    G    PA    H    Pos
Alex Rodriguez      77.4 113.0 11.4 1994 2013 18-37 2568 11344 2939  65D/H
Ernie Banks         28.5  61.9  4.9 1953 1971 22-40 2528 10394 2583 36/H57
   6. Jason Michael(s) Bourn Identity Crisis Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:06 AM (#4721251)
Mediocre peak for a very good player, IMO. Larkin, as illustrated by bobm, was so much better as to make the comparison foolish. Normally I love what Schmidt has to say, but he's way off base here.
   7. bobm Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:09 AM (#4721252)
Don't like WAR or WAA? How about he has a career OPS+ of 97 - for all Schmidt's and Rose's talking about Rollins' hitting accomplishments, he's actually been a below average hitter for his career. You can get away with that if you field like Ozzie Smith or close to it, but Rollins isn't that great defensively.

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2014, (requiring H>=2200), sorted by smallest Adjusted OPS+

                                                                              
Rk               Player OPS+    H    G    PA   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS           Pos
1          Omar Vizquel   82 2877 2968 12013 .272 .336 .352 .688    *65H/4D379
2         Luis Aparicio   82 2677 2601 11230 .262 .311 .343 .653          *6/H
3     Rabbit Maranville   82 2605 2670 11254 .258 .318 .340 .658        *64/H5
4           Juan Pierre   84 2217 1994  8280 .295 .343 .361 .704        *87H/D
5           Ozzie Smith   87 2460 2573 10778 .262 .337 .328 .666          *6/H
6            Doc Cramer   87 2705 2238  9927 .296 .340 .375 .715      *8/H9761
7       Dave Concepcion   88 2326 2488  9641 .267 .322 .357 .679     *6H45/381
8       Bert Campaneris   89 2249 2328  9625 .259 .311 .342 .653 *6/H574D83921
9       Marquis Grissom   92 2251 2165  8959 .272 .318 .415 .732       *8H/79D
10           Nellie Fox   93 2663 2367 10351 .288 .348 .363 .710        *4/H53
11       Edgar Renteria   94 2327 2152  9066 .286 .343 .398 .741       *6/H4D3
12        Willie Wilson   94 2207 2154  8317 .285 .326 .376 .702       *87H/9D
13     Red Schoendienst   94 2449 2216  9224 .289 .337 .387 .724      *4H7/658
14        Charlie Grimm   94 2299 2166  8747 .290 .341 .397 .738      *3/H9785
15          Jimmy Dykes   96 2256 2283  9351 .280 .365 .399 .764   *5436/H8719
16        Jimmy Rollins   97 2229 2009  9156 .268 .328 .425 .753        *6/HD4
17          Gary Gaetti   97 2280 2507  9817 .255 .308 .434 .741   *53H/D67149
18         B.J. Surhoff   98 2326 2313  9106 .282 .332 .413 .745   7253HD/9864
19          Lloyd Waner   99 2459 1993  8334 .316 .353 .393 .747      *8H7/945
20         Willie McGee  100 2254 2201  8188 .295 .333 .396 .729     *89H7/3D6
21         Bill Buckner  100 2715 2517 10037 .289 .321 .408 .729        *37H9D
22       Tony Fernandez  101 2276 2158  8793 .288 .347 .399 .746       *654H/D
23      Garret Anderson  102 2529 2228  9177 .293 .324 .461 .785       *78D9/H
24        Michael Young  104 2375 1970  8612 .300 .346 .441 .787       654D3/H
25         Johnny Damon  104 2769 2490 10917 .284 .352 .433 .785      *87D9H/3
Rk               Player OPS+    H    G    PA   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS           Pos
35        Miguel Tejada  108 2407 2171  9205 .285 .336 .456 .791      *65/4HD3

41        Alan Trammell  110 2365 2293  9376 .285 .352 .415 .767     *6/HD5478

50           Cal Ripken  112 3184 3001 12883 .276 .340 .447 .788        *65/DH

54         Luke Appling  113 2749 2422 10254 .310 .399 .398 .798       *6/5H43

59          Robin Yount  115 3142 2856 12249 .285 .342 .430 .772      *68D/7H3

60          Derek Jeter  116 3370 2654 12198 .311 .380 .444 .824         *6/DH

62         Barry Larkin  116 2340 2180  9057 .295 .371 .444 .815        *6H/4D

69            Pete Rose  118 4256 3562 15890 .303 .375 .409 .784      37549H/8

76           Joe Cronin  119 2285 2124  8840 .301 .390 .468 .857      *6H/5347

86          Ernie Banks  122 2583 2528 10394 .274 .330 .500 .830        36/H57

137        Mike Schmidt  147 2234 2404 10062 .267 .380 .527 .908       *53/H64


Seasons/Careers found: 161.
   8. Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch) Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:40 AM (#4721265)
“Here’s a guy that’s worried about Philly records and not Philly championships,” Rose said Wednesday.


Would that be the same Pete Rose who was released by the Phillies for not being willing to accept a reduced role after he has become a sub-replacement-level player but was still chasing 4,000 hits and ultimately Cobb's record? The same Pete Rose who, as manager, ran Pete Rose the player out there at first base for a half-season with an OPS+ of 61 to break Cobb's record?
   9. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:42 AM (#4721266)
It's fun to see that Tulowitzki has already lapped Rollins in WAA in less than half the playing time.
   10. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:10 PM (#4721276)
Scmidt's wrong and there are plenty of guys (starting with Alan Trammell) who are better than Rollins and not in the Hall. But Rollins' career has a lot of the contours of a Hall of Fame career. He has a squint-and-you'll-see-it HoF case.

24 players have played 1700+ games at SS through their age 34 season (which was 2013 for Rollins). Of those 24, Rollins is:

- 5th in hits
- 2nd in doubles
- 3rd in triples
- 3rd in home runs
- 4th in runs
- 6th in RBI
- 5th in OPS+

So Rollins has a decent bulk to his career. By WAR in that group he's between Aparicio and Concepcion, and pretty much tied with both of them in WAA. Whatever we at BBTF may think, Aparicio is of course a Hall of Famer and Concepcion has had a certain amount of support. Rollins also won 3 Gold Gloves, and was a legitimately solid SS through his early 30s. He won an MVP. He was a leadoff hitter on some good teams, and one or two that were close to great. He's a one-franchise guy. He was part of what a lot of people considered to be the best double play combination in the NL. He was exciting to watch when he was young and stealing bases and hitting triples.

I think that if you compare Rollins to Bobby Abreu (and forget that you were paying attention to baseball analytics through their respective careers) you'll find that Abreu has a much better *case* for the Hall of Fame while having less of the *feel* of a Hall of Famer. So, yeah, Schmidt's wrong, but you can see where he's coming from.
   11. alilisd Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:13 PM (#4721278)
Rollins has no chance to make it to 50 WAR. His last 5 seasons have been 8.6, and he needs another 7. There's no way he's going to add another 7 after turning 36.
   12. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:27 PM (#4721282)
Mike Schmidt is my favorite player from childhood, and I've enjoyed his refreshing and candid thoughts on baseball the last few years. But dude, c'mon.
   13. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:30 PM (#4721283)
It will be interesting to see how close he gets to 3,000 hits, whether or not he retires as a one franchise guy, and how long the Phils or other teams will write his name into the line up.

Rollins benefitted from a hitter friendly home ballpark but his splits aren't as severe as I would have thought.
Rollins is pretty durable and with anything near his last three seasons, he should be around 2,600 hits by the end of 2016
I think he would need to reach 3,000 to draw substanial support in HOF voting
   14. alilisd Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:30 PM (#4721284)
10: Those are good points. Where it breaks down for me, in terms of Schmidt's statements, is the comparison to Larkin, who is clearly a much greater hitter, and in the bizarre theory Rollins could have been a.300 hitter if he hadn't been distracted by HR. Rollins never hit more than 14 HR in his first 5 seasons, and his BA was .273, though he did hit .290 in year's 4 and 5. The next three years, when he hit his most HR, he hit .284 and had his highest season at .296. Rollins was never going to be a .300 hitter, and comparing him to Gwynn is absurd.
   15. alilisd Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4721285)
Ugh, triple post?
   16. alilisd Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4721286)
Damn crazy kindle.
   17. PreservedFish Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4721287)
Would that be the same Pete Rose who was released by the Phillies for not being willing to accept a reduced role after he has become a sub-replacement-level player but was still chasing 4,000 hits and ultimately Cobb's record?

I think it's even funnier that he's criticizing Rollins for focusing on the hits record by acknowledging that hits aren't as important as other statistics.
   18. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:38 PM (#4721290)
I think it's even funnier that he's criticizing Rollins for focusing on the hits record by acknowledging that hits aren't as important as other statistics.

Saber-Pete must be coming to the realization of how much his last few years of his career hurt his WAA--maybe that and not gambling has kept him out of the HOF
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 08, 2014 at 12:44 PM (#4721292)
It's fun to see that Tulowitzki has already lapped Rollins in WAA in less than half the playing time.

"Less than half the playing time" may give Tulo an advantage, since most players start having negative WAA in their decline phase.
   20. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: June 08, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4721294)
Saber-Pete must be coming to the realization of how much his last few years of his career hurt his WAA--maybe that and not gambling has kept him out of the HOF

Really? In that case, maybe Barry Bonds isn't in the Hall due to his crappy ESPN show.

There are far too many BBWAA voters for whom the concept of WAA is unknown, other than "WAA, Mark McGwire raped our feelings."
   21. bobm Posted: June 08, 2014 at 01:06 PM (#4721295)
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2014, no older than 28, Played 50% of games at SS, sorted by greatest WAA Position Players
                                                        
Rk              Player WAA/pos From   To   Age    G   PA
1       Alex Rodriguez    49.7 1994 2004 18-28 1430 6385
2         Arky Vaughan    40.5 1932 1940 20-28 1305 5744
3           Cal Ripken    32.4 1981 1989 20-28 1315 5680
4          Robin Yount    28.9 1974 1984 18-28 1549 6621
5          Ernie Banks    27.5 1953 1959 22-28  922 3954
6          Jim Fregosi    27.1 1961 1970 19-28 1322 5546
7         Lou Boudreau    26.2 1938 1946 20-28 1043 4552
8    Nomar Garciaparra    23.4 1996 2002 22-28  772 3457
9       Travis Jackson    23.2 1922 1932 18-28 1212 4919
10          Joe Cronin    22.6 1926 1935 19-28 1134 4886
11     Troy Tulowitzki    21.0 2006 2013 21-28  870 3689
12       Alan Trammell    20.9 1977 1986 19-28 1289 5281
13       Vern Stephens    20.7 1941 1949 20-28 1154 5003
14         Derek Jeter    20.5 1995 2002 21-28 1093 4981
15        Barry Larkin    19.7 1986 1992 22-28  835 3483
16     Rico Petrocelli    19.0 1963 1971 20-28  977 3915
17          Joe Tinker    18.5 1902 1909 21-28 1112 4409
18          Joe Sewell    16.5 1920 1927 21-28 1097 4817
19      Tony Fernandez    14.8 1983 1990 21-28 1028 4321
20        Cecil Travis    14.8 1933 1941 19-27 1102 4616
21      Hanley Ramirez    14.4 2005 2012 21-28 1009 4424
22          Jose Reyes    14.3 2003 2011 20-28 1050 4840
23       Rafael Furcal    13.4 2000 2006 22-28  976 4385
24   Rabbit Maranville    13.4 1912 1920 20-28 1047 4399
25          Donie Bush    13.3 1908 1916 20-28 1222 5471
26       Jimmy Rollins    13.2 2000 2007 21-28 1114 5162


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/8/2014.
   22. alilisd Posted: June 08, 2014 at 01:12 PM (#4721297)
19: True, but Rollins has not yet experienced this (though he has had some negative WAA, he's still average over the past six years).
   23. alilisd Posted: June 08, 2014 at 01:18 PM (#4721299)
21: I ran that for age 29 and older. Wow! Wagner has 72, basically twice as many as the next player, Appling!
   24. DavidFoss Posted: June 08, 2014 at 01:32 PM (#4721307)
The same Pete Rose who, as manager, ran Pete Rose the player out there at first base for a half-season with an OPS+ of 61 to break Cobb's record?

The record was already his before that year started. He had a 99 OPS+ the year he broke the record. (.264/.395/ .319) Certainly not good, but not horrific like his last year. Notable that he was 4th in the NL in BB in the year he was most desperate to collect hits. '82 and '83 were his worst seasons. The Phillies probably win the NL East with a better 1B in '82 and in '83 they won the pennant anyways.
   25. cardsfanboy Posted: June 08, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4721308)
Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, ... said he expects Rollins to continue playing at a productive level for three or four more seasons. Rollins recently passed Richie Ashburn to move into second place on the Phillies’ hits list. He enters Tuesday night’s game at Washington with 2,225 hits—nine fewer than Schmidt.


If he plays at a productive level for three or more seasons that probably puts him over 50 war, and then I can see the conversation being worthwhile. Outside of 3000 hits though I don't see him remotely making it though(unless he has a surprising mvp caliber season in there--he's on pace for a 4-5 war this season)

As people have pointed out, he's just too far down the list at his position to garner much support. Although by the time he retires, he'll probably be only behind Trammel, Tulowitzki and Campaneris, among shortstops in war/waa, who isn't in the hof.
   26. AndrewJ Posted: June 08, 2014 at 02:17 PM (#4721329)
Rollins and Utley are the best DP combo in Phillies history. But Trammell and Whitaker were much better, and they're not in the Hall.
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: June 08, 2014 at 02:34 PM (#4721340)
Rollins and Utley are the best DP combo in Phillies history. But Trammell and Whitaker were much better, and they're not in the Hall.


When all is said and done, more then likely, as individual players, they'll probably be ranked 1. Utley 2. Trammell 3. Whitaker 4. Rollins. With (in my opinion) the top three all clear deserving hofers. (this is making the assumption that Utley has a normal decline phase, which is iffy of course)
   28. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: June 08, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4721358)
I don't know about a Hall of Fame playing career, but he has a world class Hall of Fame big mouth, that's for damn sure.
   29. TJ Posted: June 08, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4721360)
This is all well and good, but I'm willing to bet a refreshing beverage that Jimmy Rollins does better in HOF voting than Alan Trammell...
   30. Ray (RDP) Posted: June 08, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4721361)
Rollins is an interesting candidate, a 5 WAR player during his five-year consecutive peak, but "only" worth about 2.5 WAR per year outside of that.

Scanning his b-r page his offense wasn't as good at its best as I'd thought, and he hasn't had enough of his good years with the bat.

With a good finish to his career (say, 4 WAR per year for the next half decade) he'd put himself on radar, but I don't see him doing that.
   31. cardsfanboy Posted: June 08, 2014 at 03:24 PM (#4721363)
This is all well and good, but I'm willing to bet a refreshing beverage that Jimmy Rollins does better in HOF voting than Alan Trammell...


Really? Trammell made it to the 30's and is still on the ballot, I doubt Rollins stays on the ballot for all 15 years barring an uptick in performance.

He'll do better than Whitaker for sure, but Trammell? Not seeing it, especially as the voters get more saber inclined. (we are talking about 8-10 years from now for his first vote)
   32. cardsfanboy Posted: June 08, 2014 at 03:39 PM (#4721371)
With a good finish to his career (say, 4 WAR per year for the next half decade) he'd put himself on radar, but I don't see him doing that.


If he puts up 20 more war, I think he probably easily goes in. If he does that, there is a good chance he crosses the 3000 hit mark. It gives him a career war total over 60 with a strong back end to his career that would be fresh in the voters minds. I don't think many people will doubt his hof worth at that point in time.

The debate is really going to only happen if his career ends up like Schmidt thinks it will, which is basically 3-4 good years and effectively retirement as he won't want to be a part time player. That is a 10 war decline phase(maybe a 3 WAA at best) which puts him below the mark most saber guys look at as a hofer, but not below the point where the writers would consider him. (roughly 2600 career hits, 55 war, 20 waa, 4 gg, 1 MVP, only 3 all star games though, 1500 runs scored) Definitely not a lock either way, but a guy who will get votes and have a few people campaigning for him(depending on backlog of course)
   33. LargeBill Posted: June 08, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4721382)
Not sure I'd rip Mike Schmidt over these comments. He's an announcer saying something positive about a longtime player for the home team and he qualified his comment with a "if he has three or four more productive seasons" type caveat. Obviously, Rollins is not as good a player as Larkin. However, to some fans that will get lost in the raw counting numbers. People dismissed it in Larkin's case, but his injuries affected his number of at bats and his counting stats were fairly low for a HoF'r. He was better than Rollins, but Rollins showed up ready to play a lot more often. In 15 years Rollins already has 100 more PA's than Larkin had in 19 years. Rollins has only two seasons (besides this year and his September call up)where he played in less than 140 games Larkin only exceeded 140 6 times in 19 years. Also, Rollins has more doubles, triples, homers, and stolen bases, etc. Clearly Larkin is far ahead in the rate stats, but if Rollins does manage somehow to do as Schmidt suggests and puts up 3 or 4 more good seasons he'd have a HoF argument. Whether most (or any) of us would buy into it or not is another matter all together.
   34. GregD Posted: June 08, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4721398)
Really? Trammell made it to the 30's and is still on the ballot, I doubt Rollins stays on the ballot for all 15 years barring an uptick in performance.
Predicting future votes is impossible, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rollins failed to survive 2 rounds of balloting. I would bet seriously against his ever matching Trammell's totals either of highest vote percentage or years on ballot
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: June 08, 2014 at 04:41 PM (#4721404)
Not sure I'd rip Mike Schmidt over these comments.


That is good, then you are going along with everyone in this thread. Not one person is ripping Mike Schmidt for these comments. (except maybe post 12, but I wouldn't categorize that as ripping)

Rollins has only two seasons (besides this year and his September call up)where he played in less than 140 games Larkin only exceeded 140 6 times in 19 years

Larkin had 110 games in 113 game season in 1994, and 131 games in 144 game season in 1995. It's a little disingenuous to not include those seasons, so it's 8 out of 19 vs 11 out of 14 for Rollins, obvious advantage to Rollins but not as big as was implied (add in that of those 19 seasons for Larkin, 2 of those have to be classified as part time player)

Agree with the rest of the comment, Larkin didn't have as many complete seasons as people would like him to, but he wasn't quite the fragile player that he gets accused of being, partially because of the two strike years make him look worse than he was. The other thing is Larkin played during the astroturf era, and shortstops on astro turf don't have a great history of being healthy. (Larkin is less healthy even by the standards of his era of course, but he wasn't Larry Walker fragile. )
   36. GregD Posted: June 08, 2014 at 05:14 PM (#4721429)
Yeah, I think Larkin's injury problems kept him from fighting for a slightly higher spot but are easy to overstate. He's 14th in history in games played at Shortstop. That's the weak part of his case, maybe the only weak part, but it's not such a weak part. He's ahead of a bunch of Hall of Famers on that score.
   37. LargeBill Posted: June 08, 2014 at 05:18 PM (#4721433)
Good point. I failed to consider the strike shortened seasons. Maybe subconsciously trying to forget the strike nonsense. Also, the astroturf issue is legitimate. I walked on old Riverfront turf and it was like a pool table - hard with a thin carpet like coating.
   38. cardsfanboy Posted: June 08, 2014 at 05:24 PM (#4721438)
Maybe subconsciously trying to forget the strike nonsense. ;-)


Only reason I remember it, is because of Larkin and Raines(in regards to collusion). I used to bag on Larkins health issues a lot, and had to realize it's not as bad as it looks because of those two years, arguably what would have made his games played a lot different, if you would have had two seasons of 155 games played at the heart of his career. Still doesn't make up for multiple seasons at his peak, where he missed 50+ games in a season.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: June 08, 2014 at 06:20 PM (#4721468)
Folks seem to have overlooked this bit of Schmidt's comments:

a great defensive player for the rest of his career.

And that's most of the disconnect. Rollins was a strong defender early in his career and was +66 Rfield through age 29. That's nowhere near Ozzie of course but it's about the same as Vizquel.

If Rollins remained a "great" defensive SS -- as Schmidt evidently believes -- then he'd look a lot better by WAR/WAA. But instead of being, say, +30 over the last 5 years, he's been -30. He'd be on the verge of 50 WAR and 23 WAA. That's still probably not good enough but at least it puts him around HoFers like Rizzutto, Jackson, etc. If he could finish it off with another 8 WAR or so, he's definitely in the conversation.

By WAR, he's Concepcion with better offense -- the defensive numbers are close -- and Concepcion did fine on the ballot. But Concepcion was viewed as a much better defender than Rfield gives him credit for.

A long-career SS with "great" defense and a 97 OPS+ should be in the HoF or at least damn close. The questions are whether the voters will view Rollins as a great defensive SS -- on a par at least with Concepcion probably better -- and can he have a late-career flourish. But, in short, if Vizquel had put up a 97 OPS+, he'd get voted in and probably deservedly so. Give Vizquel Rollins' offense and he picks up about 15-20 WAR.
   40. GregD Posted: June 08, 2014 at 06:31 PM (#4721476)
I wouldn't presume to know how voters years from now will see him, but I think--as just a barometer of public perception if nothing else--4 Gold Gloves is in line with admirable but not enough to base a defensive candidacy. Same number as Trammell.
   41. bobm Posted: June 08, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4721514)
[39]

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2014, Played 50% of games at SS, (requiring At least 2000 games), sorted by greatest Defensive WAR

                                           
Rk              Player dWAR OPS+    G    PA
1          Ozzie Smith 43.4   87 2573 10778
2        Mark Belanger 39.4   68 2016  6601
3           Cal Ripken 34.6  112 3001 12883
4        Luis Aparicio 31.6   82 2601 11230
5    Rabbit Maranville 30.7   82 2670 11254
6         Omar Vizquel 28.4   82 2968 12013
7        Pee Wee Reese 25.6   99 2166  9470
8    Roger Peckinpaugh 25.0   86 2012  8381
9        Alan Trammell 22.0  110 2293  9376
10        Roy McMillan 21.6   72 2092  7653
11        Honus Wagner 21.2  153 2299  9640
12     Dave Concepcion 20.9   88 2488  9641
13     Bert Campaneris 20.8   89 2328  9625
14        Bill Russell 19.1   83 2181  8021
15        Luke Appling 19.0  113 2422 10254
16          Larry Bowa 18.7   71 2247  9109
17        Chris Speier 17.4   88 2260  8155
18     Garry Templeton 16.2   87 2079  8208
19       Royce Clayton 15.7   78 2108  8164
20        Dick Bartell 15.7   96 2016  8740
21      Tony Fernandez 14.2  101 2158  8793
22          Joe Cronin 14.2  119 2124  8840
23        Barry Larkin 13.8  116 2180  9057
24       Jimmy Rollins 13.0   97 2009  9156
25       Don Kessinger  9.7   73 2078  8530
Rk              Player dWAR OPS+    G    PA
26            Jay Bell  8.6  101 2063  8525
27      Edgar Renteria  8.1   94 2152  9066
28       Miguel Tejada  5.9  108 2171  9205
29         Robin Yount  5.8  115 2856 12249
30         Derek Jeter -9.1  116 2654 12198
   42. Walt Davis Posted: June 08, 2014 at 10:40 PM (#4721610)
I wouldn't presume to know how voters years from now will see him, but I think--as just a barometer of public perception if nothing else--4 Gold Gloves is in line with admirable but not enough to base a defensive candidacy. Same number as Trammell.

I'd agree with that although, since we're talking "public perception", the MVP probably puts him ahead of Trammell. Concepcion had 5 GG and didn't hit nearly as well as either of those guys and stayed on all 15 years around 12-15% of the vote.

The Trammell comp is interesting. Trammell easily wins in any proper accounting of course. But one reasonable chunk of the WAR difference is that, from age 30 on, Trammell remained a good defender for the most part, putting up +28 Rfield. Most of the career dWAR difference in #41 is due to different defensive aging profiles. So again, if Schmidt really does believe that Rollins has remained a good defensive SS then his view on Rollins' candidacy is not so absurd.

Through age 29:

AT 6000 PA, 99 Rbat, 27 WAA, 46 WAR, 14 dWAR
JR 5800 PA, -2 Rbat, 17 WAA, 33 WAR, 13 dWAR

Rollins clearly well behind but the difference is almost entirely offense.

From 30-35:

AT 2700 PA, 65 Rbat, 16 WAA, 25 WAR, 8 dWAR
JR 3400 PA, -21 Rbat, 0 WAA, 10 WAR, 0 dWAR

Here the difference is huge and it's across the board. But if Rollins had Trammell's 8 dWAR, the gap would be cut in half.

Trammell's career was essentially over at that point, what little he did after 35 detracts from his case if anything. Rollins is having a fairly typical career Rollins season, potentially the best since age 29. He's got to project better 36-38 then what Trammell put up ... not that he has any hope of closing that gap.

This is when it would be nice if somebody asked a follow-up question like "what do you think of Trammell? how does Rollins compare to Concepcion or Vizquel?" Granted, putting him at Larkin's level suggests Schmidt might consider Rollins and Trammell equals too.
   43. bobm Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:09 PM (#4721620)
This is when it would be nice if somebody asked a follow-up question like "what do you think of Trammell? how does Rollins compare to Concepcion or Vizquel?" Granted, putting him at Larkin's level suggests Schmidt might consider Rollins and Trammell equals too.

It doesn't seem like he does consider them equals (by the transitive law of shortstops.)

"Barry Larkin's election to the Hall of Fame opened up a lot of opportunity for other shortstops," Schmidt said. "I believe Alan Trammell has to be mentioned. [Dave] Concepcion. Might even mention Larry Bowa. Among the guys I mentioned, I would think Jimmy Rollins would be at the top of the list when you compare shortstops to Barry Larkin . . . I don't want to make some statement, but I'd say, yes, numbers don't lie, and if you stack Jimmy Rollins next to Barry Larkin, they're very, very similar so why wouldn't you consider Jimmy Rollins a Hall of Fame candidate?


Schmidt on Trammell May 20, 2014
   44. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: June 08, 2014 at 11:10 PM (#4721621)
By WAR, he's Concepcion with better offense -- the defensive numbers are close -- and Concepcion did fine on the ballot. But Concepcion was viewed as a much better defender than Rfield gives him credit for.

It also helped Concepcion that he was a one franchise guy and that may help Rollins if he plays his entire career in Philly, though I see him eventually being released or not re-signed due to a youth movement. Also, Concepcion was a supporting player on TEH BIG RED MACHINE and while he was a supporting player and not a Bench or a Morgan or a Rose, it still helped keep him on the ballot.

I'd like to see Rollins get some HOF attention, though I see him as well short of the HOF--barring an amazing late career jump. I have no problem with Concepcion being on the ballot 15 years and while I do have a problem seeing him on the Expansion Era ballot, it is only because I feel someone like Bobby Grich should be on the ballot instead. Grich only collected 2.6% of the vote & was one and done on the BBWAA ballot but Concepcion garnered just 6.8% in year one yet had enough voters feel he should get their vote after year one to stay on the ballot. The difference in the votes in year one was likely due to Concepcion winning two WS with teh Big Red Machine though Grich was a much bigger cog in the Baltimore & California teams that won the division but lost in the ALCS. Rollins will get some extra support since he was part of the 07-11 Phils & this will likely keep him on the ballot
   45. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: June 09, 2014 at 07:30 AM (#4721672)
From Schmidt's quote in #43:
I don't want to make some statement, but I'd say, yes, numbers don't lie, and if you stack Jimmy Rollins next to Barry Larkin, they're very, very similar so why wouldn't you consider Jimmy Rollins a Hall of Fame candidate?

This is a further part of Rollins' squint-and-you'll-see-it HoF case. To date:

Name                 G   PA    R    H  2B  3B  HR  SB
Jimmy Rollins     2010 9160 1278 2230 465 109 207 433
Barry Larkin      2180 9057 1329 2340 441  76 198 379 

This of course ignores league context, rate stats, the extra 200 walks that Larkin piled up. But from the little chunk of raw totals, Rollins looks like Larkin with fewer singles but more power, speed, and durability, and a few more years to add to those totals. Why wouldn't that be a Hall of Famer?
   46. TJ Posted: June 09, 2014 at 08:23 AM (#4721676)
This is all well and good, but I'm willing to bet a refreshing beverage that Jimmy Rollins does better in HOF voting than Alan Trammell...

Really? Trammell made it to the 30's and is still on the ballot, I doubt Rollins stays on the ballot for all 15 years barring an uptick in performance.

He'll do better than Whitaker for sure, but Trammell? Not seeing it, especially as the voters get more saber inclined. (we are talking about 8-10 years from now for his first vote)


"Rollins won an MVP! He stole lots of bases! He was the best shortstop in the NL! Troy Tulowhoski? The guy who was always hurt in Colorado? Coors made his numbers, and Rollins won a World Series! Besides, he wasn't gritty and played everyday like Rollins!"- Future HOF voter.
   47. Lassus Posted: June 09, 2014 at 08:33 AM (#4721677)
#45 does more to make me doubt Larkin than elevate Rollins.
   48. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: June 09, 2014 at 11:09 AM (#4721774)
But from the little chunk of raw totals, Rollins looks like Larkin with fewer singles but more power, speed, and durability, and a few more years to add to those totals. Why wouldn't that be a Hall of Famer?

Ray Durham G 1975
PA 8423
R 1249
H 2054
2B 440
3B 79
HR 192
SB 273

The problem was that Larkin was at .295/.371/.444 and Rollins is at: .268/.328/.425, which makes him Jay Bell with more steals (.265/.343/.416)
   49. Publius Publicola Posted: June 09, 2014 at 11:47 AM (#4721818)
Rollins has no chance to make it to 50 WAR. His last 5 seasons have been 8.6, and he needs another 7. There's no way he's going to add another 7 after turning 36.


I don't understand this statement at all. He already has 1.6 this year so is on target to finish around 3.2. All he'd need after that is another 5.4. That's about 2.5 below average seasons for him (last year was terrible for him but I think he's showing this year that was an anomaly that has little bearing on what he is going to do from now on) . That's at least about what you would expect him to from here on.
   50. Publius Publicola Posted: June 09, 2014 at 11:58 AM (#4721830)
Rollins has no chance to make it to 50 WAR. His last 5 seasons have been 8.6, and he needs another 7. There's no way he's going to add another 7 after turning 36.


I don't understand this statement at all. He already has 1.6 this year so is on target to finish around 3.2. All he'd need after that is another 5.4. That's about 2.5 below average seasons for him (last year was terrible for him but I think he's showing this year that was an anomaly that has little bearing on what he is going to do from now on). That's at least about what you would expect him to from here on.

How ridiculously good was Wagner? 17 triples as a 41 year old?
   51. Ron J2 Posted: June 09, 2014 at 12:27 PM (#4721858)
He does somewhat better by peak than I expected. I have him at 28th for WAR in best 5 seasons. The 5 guys ahead of him are Joe Sewell, Bert Campaneris, Travis Jackson, Vern Stephens and Phil Rizzuto. The guys just behind him are Rico Petrocelli (years at SS only considered), Luis Aparicio, Rabbit Maranville, Tony Fernandez and Dave Concepcion.

That's not a strong HOF case in that while there are HOFers in the listed SS, none of them are in for their peak.

   52. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: June 09, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4721870)
He already has 1.6 this year so is on target to finish around 3.2.


He's also have the second highest OPS+ of his career if he keeps this year up.

Obviously he has a shot at 50, he's at 43.3
but he's pt up 10.1 since turning 30 (5.4 seasons, or 1.9 per year- he's 3.5 years away)

so ETA end 2017 (he'll be 38)- assuming no decline...

or if he's having a late career renaissance and averages 3.2 per year (which he hasn't done since turning 30)- then he could reach it end of 2016...

or he could end 2014 at 45
2015: 1.6
2016: 1.3
2017: 1.0
2018: 0.7
2019: 0.4

reaches 50.0 while gasping on his last legs...

   53. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: June 09, 2014 at 12:55 PM (#4721877)
He does somewhat better by peak than I expected.

6.1
5.4
4.9
4.6
4.6

not a bad player :-)
better than
6.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.3
(Vizquel)
   54. Walt Davis Posted: June 09, 2014 at 07:11 PM (#4722176)
Sure but, relative to GG, Rfield "under-rates" Vizquel's D ... and of course nobody will vote for Vizquel's peak but for his career. It will be interesting to see how voters rate Vizquel's D -- is it near Ozzie or just very good. And even if the former, how far does being the 2nd best defensive SS carry you? Depending on ballot clogging, I expect him to do at least as well as Concepcion.

Vizquel will get hurt by the lack of AS games but that's largely just the bad luck of being in the same league as Jeter, Nomar, Tejada. Had he been in the NL (or juat about any other era), Vizquel would probably have 8-10 AS appearances. (It was mostly Larkin when healthy and a smattering of one-year wonders. Concepcion made 9 and even Bowa made 5 and Kessinger 6.)
   55. baudib Posted: June 09, 2014 at 09:04 PM (#4722214)
Does anyone really support a Hall of Fame where Jimmy Rollins is in ahead of Nomar?
   56. cardsfanboy Posted: June 09, 2014 at 11:11 PM (#4722277)
Does anyone really support a Hall of Fame where Jimmy Rollins is in ahead of Nomar?
\

Don't really see much of a difference. One is a career guy who played above average and had the ability to suit up 150 games a year, the other is more or less a platoon guy, who was a very good guy in the 130 or so games a year he was able to limp out on the field, that forced the team to basically play a replacement level player in his expected absence(people who like waa need to assign a war penalty to the projected starting player, on a per game missed below 150)

If Rollins retired right now, I don't think I would know who I would vote ahead of who between Nomar and Rollins.
   57. cardsfanboy Posted: June 09, 2014 at 11:43 PM (#4722292)
Edit: note the platoon guy comment is not to mean he is a true platoon guy, but to reiterate the fact that he almost never played a complete season. And looks like a platoon player based upon games played.
   58. bobm Posted: June 10, 2014 at 12:34 AM (#4722311)
[55] Does anyone really support a Hall of Fame where Jimmy Rollins is in ahead of Nomar?

Similar career value from a player with a career case vs a player with a peak/prime case.

From "Shortstop JAWS leaders" on B-R:

                                                                                                      
Rk                                      WAR WAR7 JAWS Yrs ASG    G    PA    H   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
     Avg of 21 HOFers at this position 66.7 42.8                                                  54.7
23                   Nomar Garciaparra 44.2 43.0 43.6  14   6 1434  6116 1747 .313 .361 .521 .882  124
34                       Jimmy Rollins 43.3 31.0 37.1  15   3 2010  9160 2230 .268 .328 .425 .753   97
35                     Troy Tulowitzki 37.1 37.1 37.1   9   3  930  3935 1035 .299 .373 .520 .892  125
41                        Omar Vizquel 45.3 26.6 36.0  24   3 2968 12013 2877 .272 .336 .352 .688   82


From [5]:

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2014, Played 50% of games at SS, sorted by greatest WAA Position Players

Rk              Player WAA/pos  oWAR dWAR From   To   Age    G    PA    H
18   Nomar Garciaparra    24.2  42.6  6.0 1996 2009 22-35 1434  6116 1747
31       Jimmy Rollins    17.1  39.6 13.0 2000 2014 21-35 2009  9156 2229


   59. baxter Posted: June 10, 2014 at 01:27 AM (#4722326)
50 % of games at shortstop is unfair both to Vizquel and Rollins, each of whom played (one of whom continues to play) over 90 percent of his games at shortstop.

Nomar was inner circle as an SS for four years (still not as good as his contemporary Arod); he hurt his wrist, wasn't the same and moved off the position (like Banks, for example).

It is terrible that Nomar was hurt and could not play as much SS (around 1,000 games), but, like one of his comps, Vern Stephens, he may not make it to the hall. Fregosi was on his way to a hall of fame career, but did not produce after 31, moved off the position and was a part time player.

The rate stats are great for Larkin; he is a deserving hof'er. But, as is frequently argued here, who played in his place every year that he missed those games? There is a remark about the "gritty" rollins somewhere upthread. Rollins regularly played 155+ games a year. He may hit 150 this year also. There is a cost to auditioning a new player and replacing a player, particularly at the skilled positions.

Also, it's no knock on Rollins to compare his stats to Durham's, a heck of a player, but a 2bman who was out of baseball at 34.

Don't underestimate the "compilers." What is the equivalent of 300 wins for a position player? 2,700 games at SS is pretty impressive (skill position).

Upthread there is a comment about 97 OPS+ of Rollins; he is an SS; that is good position, even today.

Also, when you talk about why Vizquel didn't make all star games, or didn't start them, besides Jeter and Nomar, there was Arod.

I don't think Rollins has to have Larkins' rate stats to get in.

See where he ends up (I have said this about Beltre). If Rollins plays well enough to start as a major league SS for three more years, he will have the counting stats as an SS to get in. Consider 2,500 games at SS, 2,600 hits; 550 doubles, 1,500 runs, 230 home runs.
If Rollins can't play the position, he'll be out of a job rendering the discussion even more academic.

Still, the narrative is also strong; other points not yet mentioned 30-30 player (as was Larkin; although Arod was 40-40). Rollins was a star on the Phillies team that won the series. He is still playing (this is not Zolio Versailles).

   60. Ron J2 Posted: June 10, 2014 at 09:53 AM (#4722404)
#56 Nomar has a fairly strong peak argument. I've got him at #10 (Wagner, ARod, Ripken, Banks, Boudreau, Vaughan, Yount -- years at SS only -- Jennings and Cronin).

Guys that high up the peak list rarely don't make the hall.

Now he's all peak, and while he is #10, he's closer to #20 than he is to Arky Vaughan (a pure peak candidate) in terms of peak value. Not exactly a slam dunk (particularly when you consider that Vaughan was a VC pick and he's clearly a stronger candidate than Nomar)

This assumes that WAR has his defense pegged accurately, since he's seen as among the worst defensive players on the peak list (only Cecil Travis, Roy Smalley, Dennis Menke and Jeter are seen as worse defensive players in their best 5 seasons by WAR), but I don't think it's absurd on the face of it. I mean his rep while active was basically, you can live with the glove given how good he is with the bat.

If you think he's a better defensive player than WAR sees him as, you'll see his peak case as stronger.
   61. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: June 10, 2014 at 12:13 PM (#4722531)
Still, the narrative is also strong


If Rollins gets in, he'll be Jim Rice with less peak but more mediocre season padding.
he's a SS version of Johnny Damon, only not as good.

He was given Utley's MVP award, yippee kai aye!


Rollins is basically mid-level HOVG
   62. Srul Itza Posted: June 10, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4722569)
See where he ends up (I have said this about Beltre)


You really think the two are in any way comparable?

JAWS is a good quick-and-dirty for this.

Beltre: Third Base (8th), 72.3 career WAR/46.8 7yr-peak WAR/59.6 JAWS
Rollins: Shortstop (34th), 43.2 career WAR/31.0 7yr-peak WAR/37.1 JAWS

We could use practically any other measure, and it would come out the same
   63. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: June 10, 2014 at 01:36 PM (#4722589)
See where he ends up (I have said this about Beltre)


Beltre is making the HOM, Rollins is not :-)

Hall of Fame?
Rollins has a shot, I don't think it's a great one, but you can weave the type of narrative that the BBWAA likes about him, he'll likely have raw counting numbers that won't make you spit-take "no."

Beltre, I dunno, his career's got such an odd shape and I have no sense that any appreciable number of the BBWA members view him as a future HOFer- but 7 of his 10 age 34 BBREF comps are in the hall (the guys not in are Dale Murphy, Shawn Green and Aramis Ramirez)

My sense of Beltre is that he was always a HOF talent, but that he was always injured, some nagging something was always impacting his performance, and eventually he either learned how to effectively compensate for it, and play through it without losing performance, or he learned to throttle back when he felt a twinge or something that might lead to a performance impacting injury.

Also his performance varies by park more than most players- he simply did not hit in Seattle or LA (except for that one year)- he hots very well in Texas- if you just look at road numbers his career has a more "normal" career shape.
   64. alilisd Posted: June 10, 2014 at 02:35 PM (#4722649)
I don't understand this statement at all. He already has 1.6 this year so is on target to finish around 3.2. All he'd need after that is another 5.4. That's about 2.5 below average seasons for him (last year was terrible for him but I think he's showing this year that was an anomaly that has little bearing on what he is going to do from now on). That's at least about what you would expect him to from here on.


I think it's because we have very different (nearly opposite?) views of Rollins. You mention you think this year shows last year to be an anomaly, but I think this year is the anomaly. We have a guy who from 30 to 34, five seasons, was a below average bat on the whole (92 OPS+, -24 Rbat), and in the majority of those seasons (at least 3 out of 5, I won't quibble about a 98 OPS+ beng below average, same could be true for one of his seasons by Rbat). More significantly, I believe, is him being a below average glove though. Although DRS has him at -1 so far this year, I find it highly unlikely a guy who has been -2, 3 (in half a season), -7, -8, -15 from 30 to 34 has returned to being a league average SS at 35, and it is even more unlikely he will be anywhere near average going forward. So I place little value on his bounce back, so far, this year. Jeter, a guy with a better bat but also a poor glove SS, played full time from 36 to 38 with an average bat and still only put up 5 WAR. The Phillies may indeed run the aging Rollins out there the way the Yankees did with Jeter, but I have little confidence in his abiliy to outperform Jeter.

Generally, SS who have a weak bat and poor glove do not last long in MLB. Taking a look at age 30-35 SS (played 80% of games at SS) with 100 or lower OPS+ and Rfield 0 or lower doesn't yield any promising comps. Rollins is right at the top of the list by WAR, along with Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera was done after one more season. Lyn Lary (apparently his parents didn't like double letters) didn't even make it to 35, neither did Edgar Renteria. Dunston stuck around until 39, but moved off the position, and had greatly reduced playing. Most of the other guys on the list were much worse with the bat so probably not reasonable comps for Rollins.

Then if you look at SS from 36 on (same criteria for OPS+ 100 or below and Rfield 0 or below), you get one guy, Aparicio, who put up more than 5 WAR, but Aparicio was only -2.2 Rfield during that time. Jeter and Larkin both had 4.2 WAR, and after that it gets ugly. Even if you open it up to all SS you only add Wagner, Appling, Smith, Dhalen, and Maury Wills as guys who accured at least 7 WAR, and all of them were plus fielders. I don't see Rollins playing well enough to pick up the WAR even if he does get the playing time, which also seems unlikely to me (though the GM of the Phillies does seem to have a penchant for the inscrutable).
   65. alilisd Posted: June 10, 2014 at 02:49 PM (#4722665)
He's also have the second highest OPS+ of his career if he keeps this year up.

Obviously he has a shot at 50, he's at 43.3
but he's pt up 10.1 since turning 30 (5.4 seasons, or 1.9 per year- he's 3.5 years away)

so ETA end 2017 (he'll be 38)- assuming no decline...


This doesn't seem a reasonable take on Rollins to me though. As you mentioned a 110 would be the second highest of his career. Now which is more likely, that he'll have the second highest OPS+ of his career at 35 (after going 87, 85, 101, 98, 86 the past 5 seasons) or that he'll regress over the course of the rest of this year? I'll take the latter.

And why should we assume no decline when he's clearly already in decline? Sure, through less than half of this season he's looking good, but we have five seasons of performance (OPS+ 92) which are clearly below his age 25 to 29 peak (OPS+ 105). Defense is also way off from 25 to 29 Rfield 62, from 30 to 34 it's -29. He's averaged 1.7 WAR versus 5.1. You cannot assume no decline when decline is already obvious.

or he could end 2014 at 45
2015: 1.6
2016: 1.3
2017: 1.0
2018: 0.7
2019: 0.4

reaches 50.0 while gasping on his last legs...


If it happens, this is the only way I see it. But I still don't think anyone will run him out there full time, or as often as he can stand, until he's 40. Even Amaro isn't that lost, is he?
   66. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 10, 2014 at 02:55 PM (#4722671)
From a purely "will he or won't he" perspective, I think he'll have a hard time because Utley will be on the same ballot. I realize that Rollins won that MVP over Utley, but that was in good part due to Rollins guaranteeing the division before the season or some such puffery.
   67. alilisd Posted: June 10, 2014 at 03:05 PM (#4722682)
Don't underestimate the "compilers."


I don't think it's underestimating compilers to say they don't belong in the HOF. Harold Baines, not a HOF. Garret Anderson, not a HOF. Jack "The Jack" Morris, not a HOF. You have to have some extended peak to go with the bulk/career.

Upthread there is a comment about 97 OPS+ of Rollins; he is an SS; that is good position, even today.


It may be good, but it's not great, and it's not clearly a HOF level. For 20th C and forward HOF SS the median OPS+ is 112. Guys within 5 points of Rollins: Travis Jackson, Reese, Dave Bancroft, Tinker, and Rizzuto. Two poor VC selections, one who is well qualified even without WW 2 credit, another who might be considered qualified with WW 2 credit, but took forever to be elected, and one who had a catchy poem written about him. Perhaps someone could write Rollins to Utley to Howard to help push Jimmy over the line. :-)
   68. Moeball Posted: June 10, 2014 at 08:46 PM (#4722958)
Upthread there is a comment about 97 OPS+ of Rollins; he is an SS; that is good position, even today.


With the positional adjustment Rollins does come out as an above average offensive performer "for his position". My point about the 97 OPS+ was that even for a middle infielder BBWAA voters generally expect you to be an above average hitter - even without a positional adjustment - to get elected to the HOF. The only exceptions I can think of are guys like Ozzie, Rabbit and Little Looie, all of whom had defensive reputations far exceeding Rollins'. Most SS who make it to the Hall via the BBWAA vote hit like Honus or Cronin or Cal, etc., i.e., clearly well above average hitters.

Nomar was inner circle as an SS for four years (still not as good as his contemporary Arod); he hurt his wrist, wasn't the same and moved off the position


When No-mah had the wrist injury I was certain it was because of all the fussing with the bleeping batting gloves and wrist bands. Every bleeping at bat, between every bleeping pitch, call time, step out, adjust the glove and wrist band, step back in. Repeat.

He was a great hitter in his prime, but man, was he ever annoying to watch!





   69. baxter Posted: June 11, 2014 at 12:22 AM (#4723055)
Re 61: Beltre and Rollins are comparable b/c each needs to amass counting stats to get in. 63 really summarizes my view of Beltre;hof talent who is finally putting it together consistently, great to see. Problem is his career #'s right now resemble Santo's. Santo's are more impressive b/c of the difference in hitting environment. Likewise if compared to Yaz and Billy Williams (although they are corner outfielders). If Beltre's #'s end up just being close to Aramis Ramirez, Beltre won't get voted in. But Beltre is still going strong; Ramirez appears to be declining rapidly. Santo's career ended at 34. Look at the struggle for him to be elected. Also, I am wary of the defensive metrics (lack of understanding). It appears a good chunk of Beltre's WAR value stems from defense. For Santo, the value is offense. I don't know how the defensive value is affected by Santo's playing alongside Kessenger (who by reputation, at least, was a good defensive shortstop). In any event, Beltre may end up with close to 3,000 hits; 600 doubles, 450 homers, etc., that will get him in.

If Rollins is able to keep a starting job the next three seasons (and hit slightly worse than league average), he will have impressive counting stats for a SS (64 points this out).

Re compilers, including Damon. If Damon had played more games as a CF, he would have a better argument; there is nothing special about Anderson's career (very nice, at that); Baines was a corner OF before he was hurt. Morris has been discussed elsewhere; is a lightening rod. Rather than Morris, think "Little D" Don Sutton. If Rollins has the bat and the glove to keep playing the skill position deep into his 30's, there will be few SS w/those #'s not in the hall. You may then say, he'll be the first. But, if he gets the #'s, I mentioned above, he'll get in. Yes, it will be tough. But, players can exceed our expectations. Go back to the thread discussing Damon's four year deal with the Yankees and what an unmitigated disaster that 4th year was going to be according to the formulas(except Damon was good starter for a championship team).
   70. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: June 11, 2014 at 12:54 AM (#4723072)
In any event, Beltre may end up with close to 3,000 hits;


May end up with close to 3,000? Beltre is absolutely chasing down 3K, with injury about the only thing likely to derail him. He's only 35, he's just 513 short and he led all of baseball in hits just last year.
   71. baxter Posted: June 11, 2014 at 01:29 AM (#4723086)
I agree; but I am also mindful of Roberto Alomar and others who have fallen off the proverbial cliff on their way to 3,000.

I like Beltre's chances; I do not intend to understate them. He's still over 500 away (although hitting great, after a bit of a slow start). Johnny Damon was less than 300 away at 37; the next year his hitting tanked and he was gone. Beltre is a much better hitter (and fielder). He is playing at a high level. I hope he continues; it's a joy to watch.

I thought he was going to do in Seattle what he is now doing for TX. I remember when he came up on the Dodgers. I remember when Welch came up; I didn't think I'd be reading his obit this soon.

It'll be fun to watch.















   72. alilisd Posted: June 11, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4723506)
there is nothing special about Anderson's career (very nice, at that);


That's the point. There is nothing special about it, but for the numbers he compiled through staying healthy and being pretty good for a long time. 2,228 games is special in that only 128 players have appeared in more games. But the question is what was special about Anderson, or any other player one might consider a compiler, in those games? The raw counting numbers compiled in those games do a poor job of answering that question.

So to bring it to Rollins, what has he done which is special, or HOF worthy if you prefer, other than compile counting stats? There is no doubt he has the counting stats of a HOF SS already, but as noted his bat is light. The most similar by OPS+ I've already mentioned, and, other than Reese, they are a borderline bunch. There are three below that as well, even lighter weight hitters, but they are also rated as much better fielders: Smith, Aparcio, and Maranville. Rollins does not come up to this standard in the field.

Where is his peak? It's a low, relatively brief five year period. Outside of those five years where he was legitimately one of the top three or four SS in the game? 10 seasons where he was an average SS and was only 1.5 WAA. That's just not enough peak for me with the entire rest of his career being simply average. In other words, he needs some prime years to go with that peak, years where he was solidly above average. Even during his peak seasons he only had two top 10 finishes in WAR: 6th and 10th. I'm not seeing a HOF player there, but someone who was healthy, hit at the top of the lineup, and played a long time, the vast majority of which was at an average level.
   73. baxter Posted: June 11, 2014 at 10:17 PM (#4723726)
That was Anderson's career (he is done; Rollins is still going, unlike Durham, Renteria, etc.) as a corner outfielder. There is not much special about that; others have played that much and it is not a skill position.

When Rollins retires, one can evaluate his career as a whole. I agree w/Mr. Schmidt's point, three more seasons (after this one) of Rollins' production, he will have the career bulk. 2,500 games at SS is special; what 5 players did it.

Someone who was healthy for nearly 20 seasons at skilled position; already has the sparkle (MVP for a world champion, some GG's, some ASG's, base stealer). The voters will look at that player and will get voted in and not by the Vets.

Travis Jackson I had always thought of as part of the Frisch group; I had thought his entire career at SS; no last two years at 3B, lessens whatever argument one would make.

You see a player who stayed healthy; consider Fregosi, Garciaparra or Tulowitzki (although he's been in the lineup all this year). Rolllins' bat will not play at a non skill position, so when he moves off SS, he's done, certainly as a regular. If he keeps it up until very deep into his 30's (as Wills was able to), he will have the counting stats and bulk of games played at SS.

If Rollins can stay afloat through age 39, he will get in. The odds of his making it surely are highly against him (it's probably a stronger bet that Beltre gets to 3,000).

If it does happen, just look across the diamond and channel your inner Nellie Fox.
   74. alilisd Posted: June 12, 2014 at 04:21 PM (#4724315)
That was Anderson's career (he is done; Rollins is still going, unlike Durham, Renteria, etc.) as a corner outfielder. There is not much special about that; others have played that much and it is not a skill position.


Let me try again, and I'll flesh it out for you. He played more games than approximately 99% of all the position players who have ever played the game; that is special. He's 91st in career hits, 87th in total bases, 44th in doubles, 82nd in RBI, 88th in extra base hits; that's special. He' in the top 1% of all time in every single one of those categories. That's special! But when you look at the value of his performance on a seasonal basis, and on a rate basis, and in comparison to his peers as well as other HOF players, he's not special; he's a compiler who played a long time, stayed healthy, and was good enough to start regularly for most of his career. Granted, Rollins plays a different position, and has a bit better peak, but he's closer to a compiler like Anderson than he is to a HOF SS.

When Rollins retires, one can evaluate his career as a whole.


Yes, one can, but one can also look at him and know he's not going to add any peak, and very likely not even add any prime, to his career, which means he's a short prime, low peak player who was, by and large, average for his position. That is not the description of a HOF. Sure he's compiled comparable counting stats to other HOF SS, but he was nowhere near as good as the well qualified ones.

The voters will look at that player and will get voted in and not by the Vets.


There's no telling what the voters will do, but this is an entirely different argument. What criteria the voters use to determine who they think is a HOF is an entirely different proposition than what a BTF analysis of what a HOF qualified player is. If you're arguing the former, have at it. It was my understanding we were arguing the latter.

If it does happen, just look across the diamond and channel your inner Nellie Fox.


You mean the Nellie Fox who was elected by the VC 12 years after falling off the ballot? ;-)

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