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Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Mike Trout And Bryce Harper Are Baseball’s Best Young Position-Player Duo Ever

With all the (deserved) hype surrounding Trout and Harper, I was wondering how the duo compares to other concurrent 22-or-under pairs of position players in the history of baseball. To answer that question, I looked at the most productive two non-pitchers age 22 or below in a given season, based on the combined number of wins above replacement they’d generated in the previous two seasons.
...
By that standard, Trout and Harper are the most productive young duo in baseball history.
...
If we’re looking to give extra weight to No. 2s, ensuring that both players in a pair have great stats (to safeguard against a situation such as what happened in 1918, when Rogers Hornsby had 97 percent of the WAR in his “duo” with Ross Youngs), perhaps a better way to rank these kinds of pairings is not to sum up all of the WAR generated by a pair, but rather to take the harmonic mean of the two individuals’ WAR totals.
...
By either list, though, Trout-Harper is the best young duo in baseball history.

 

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 22, 2014 at 05:03 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, nationals

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: April 22, 2014 at 09:49 PM (#4691618)
No mention of Trout/Machado combo that was good for 27.6 war?
   2. Spivey Posted: April 22, 2014 at 10:04 PM (#4691627)
Is Trout combined with other random players positions 2-7?
   3. Rowland Office Supplies Posted: April 22, 2014 at 10:17 PM (#4691633)
In the great duo tradition of George Michael and Andrew Ridgeley.
   4. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 22, 2014 at 10:31 PM (#4691637)
Since Trout and nobody would be 5th, I imagine Trout and anybody would dominate the top ten.
   5. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 22, 2014 at 10:37 PM (#4691642)
Machado and Harper are tied for 8th. 21 yo Trout and Stanton are 5th.
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: April 22, 2014 at 10:43 PM (#4691646)
nevermind...
   7. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 23, 2014 at 12:20 AM (#4691672)
Yeah, I noticed that Al Kaline was part of multiple duos, so it seemed a bit inconsistent to not have Trout in multiple pairs.

Paine noted in the comments of that article that Trout/Machado would be number two but Machado didn't show up in the search because he hasn't played in 2014.
   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 23, 2014 at 02:37 AM (#4691701)
So Mike Trout and me(my total -3.5 WAR) make the top 10! Woohoo.

Well except I'm 49; but that should count for something.

All this things only point to one thing.

Mike Trout is awesome.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: April 23, 2014 at 02:57 AM (#4691704)
I assume Hank and Tommy Aaron are still the HR leaders among brothers.

I'm not clear how we define a pair here. But through age 22, Heyward had 14.7 WAR. Those overlap with Trout's age 19-20 seasons when he had 11.5 WAR. That's 26.2.

Also if Mays wasn't off in the military for most of 21 and all of 22, I'm guessing he and Mantle would have topped this list. Mantle had 13 WAR through 1953 (age 21). Mays had 4 in 51, was on pace for about 5-6 in 52 (got 1.2), missed a year, came back and put up 11. So Mays might have gotten about 18-20 plus Mantle's 13.

Which is somehow Trout's fault which is why Cabrera deserves the MVP.
   10. Hank G. Posted: April 23, 2014 at 02:56 PM (#4692226)
I assume Hank and Tommy Aaron are still the HR leaders among brothers.


But no better than 3rd among players sharing 50% of their DNA.
   11. SoCalDemon Posted: April 23, 2014 at 03:02 PM (#4692236)
Re #9: This really isn't here nor there, but I've always been curious how Mays would have done in 52-53. In 1951 he had a 120 OPS+, in the 144 PA he got in 52 he had a 102 OPS+ (with typically great defense in both years), then comes back in 54 with a 175 OPS+ which he basically keeps up through 1965. That seems like a really difficult gap to project (in contrast with, say, Ted Williams, who I think we can be pretty confident would have put up something like a 205-220 OPS+ in 43-45, because that's what he did every year from 41-47 [well, a 235 in 1941, but who's counting] and probably something like a 180 OPS+ in 52-53 {larger error bars there, but still something in that range is reasonable). Did Mays have a breakout in 1954, or would that have happened in 1952 if he had played, or sometime in 1953....
   12. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: April 23, 2014 at 04:41 PM (#4692388)
I'm not clear how we define a pair here. But through age 22, Heyward had 14.7 WAR. Those overlap with Trout's age 19-20 seasons when he had 11.5 WAR. That's 26.2.


It's because he is looking at pairs in one season based on how each player performed in the two prior years. So Trout and Harper are listed as 22 and 21, respectively, but their WARs are from 20-21 and 19-20.

Andrew Jones and Mike Caruso?
   13. Manny Coon Posted: April 23, 2014 at 04:56 PM (#4692414)
I assume Hank and Tommy Aaron are still the HR leaders among brothers.


Bobby Bonds Jr. could probably have hit 8 HR in the 1000+ PA Tommie Aaron got. The Bonds family was blackballed again!
   14. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 23, 2014 at 05:00 PM (#4692420)
Andrew Jones and Mike Caruso?


Hey, Caruso was better than the .4 Ross Youngs got.
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 23, 2014 at 05:01 PM (#4692426)
Since Trout and nobody would be 5th, I imagine Trout and anybody would dominate the top ten.

Yeah! Trout and Christian Yelich put most of these duos to shame.
   16. Steve Treder Posted: April 23, 2014 at 05:03 PM (#4692429)
Re #9: This really isn't here nor there, but I've always been curious how Mays would have done in 52-53. In 1951 he had a 120 OPS+, in the 144 PA he got in 52 he had a 102 OPS+ (with typically great defense in both years), then comes back in 54 with a 175 OPS+ which he basically keeps up through 1965. That seems like a really difficult gap to project (in contrast with, say, Ted Williams, who I think we can be pretty confident would have put up something like a 205-220 OPS+ in 43-45, because that's what he did every year from 41-47 [well, a 235 in 1941, but who's counting] and probably something like a 180 OPS+ in 52-53 {larger error bars there, but still something in that range is reasonable). Did Mays have a breakout in 1954, or would that have happened in 1952 if he had played, or sometime in 1953....

I took a shot at that one time several years back.

   17. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 23, 2014 at 06:47 PM (#4692595)
in contrast with, say, Ted Williams, who I think we can be pretty confident would have put up something like a 205-220 OPS+ in 43-45, because that's what he did every year from 41-47 [well, a 235 in 1941, but who's counting]


I love numbers like this. It's almost like...and yeah, ho-hum Williams would just reel off a few 200 OPS+ seasons in a row.

Those numbers are insane.
   18. cardsfanboy Posted: April 23, 2014 at 07:33 PM (#4692626)
The more I think about this article, the more I hate it.
1. It's clear from the article that the writer had a goal, which was to tout Trout and Harper as the best young duo of all time, and that he went cherry picking for results to confirm it.
2. Anytime I see a stat argument that pushes the limit in the qualifiers, in which the people that they want to "win" the argument, are the uppermost among the qualifiers, you know it's a bogus point. (IE...why is the cutoff up to age 22 instead of up to age 21 or 23....and the answer is...because that is the cutoff that gets the Harper/Trout as winners argument...or why is it 2 years cumulative instead of best season or best 3 seasons...again, same answer---if anyone has paid attention to bobm when he posts his tables, he almost always centers on the subject matter, because that is how you make legitimate arguments)
3. I expect more from 538...if this was a National fanboy blogger writing this, then it would be perfectly fine article, but something trying to establish itself as a non-partisan/non-bias national blog site, this is just too weak.



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