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Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Mike Trout hits career-high 42nd home run

With a two-run home run in the first inning of the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Rangers, Angels outfielder both tied Cody Bellinger for the major league lead in home runs and set a new single-season career-high at 42. Trout’s blast opened the scoring, staking the Halos to an early lead.

Trout is batting .300/.445/.669 on the year. The dinger leaves him two RBI shy of 100 for the year, and he’s already at 101 runs scored. MLB can already inscribe Trout’s name on the 2019 AL MVP Award. Per FanGraphs, he has 8.5 WAR, which is almost a full 3.0 WAR more than his next closest competitor, Xander Bogaerts (5.6). The difference between Trout and Bogaerts at No. 2 is about the difference between Bogaerts and Jonathan Villar (2.8) at No. 25.

A reminder that the great players are also benefiting from the home run derby environment in the sport currently.

 

QLE Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:46 AM | 60 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: home runs, mike trout

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 21, 2019 at 10:44 AM (#5873155)
And yet DJ LeMahieu will probably get a first place vote for MVP somehow.
   2. TomH Posted: August 21, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5873166)
a few voters will not vote for a guy on a non-playoff team. That is how.
   3. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 21, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5873171)
55 WAA. 72.5 WAR.

And he just turned 28 a week or so ago.

The Hall of Fame ought to change voting rules so that we can just induct him this year with the final plaque TBD.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 21, 2019 at 11:40 AM (#5873174)
The Hall of Fame ought to change voting rules so that we can just induct him this year with the final plaque TBD.

He could still get banned for fixing the WS.
   5. Rally Posted: August 21, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5873175)
a few voters will not vote for a guy on a non-playoff team. That is how.


OK with me if it's not unanimous, so long as Trout does win the award.
   6. JAHV Posted: August 21, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5873181)
OK with me if it's not unanimous, so long as Trout does win the award.


I'm okay with it as well, because Trout gets his award while I get to vent some pent up angst at idiot sportswriters. It's the best of both worlds.
   7. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 21, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5873182)
EDIT:

Never mind... something is messed up with PI because I was looking at career WAA ranking and got to wondering "Where's Willie Mays?" Mays has 110.3 WAA.... so something is awry with my PI usage.

Sigh... Trout isn't as great as I thought!
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: August 21, 2019 at 12:36 PM (#5873192)
He could still get banned for fixing the WS.


Presumably in the Rothstein role.
   9. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 21, 2019 at 12:43 PM (#5873195)
Rumors abound that the 2016 WS Game 7 rain delay was necessitated by weather reports from the Trout Meteorological Center...
   10. jmurph Posted: August 21, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5873196)
Somehow I was completely oblivious to his numbers this season. Wow.
   11. PreservedFish Posted: August 21, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5873199)
What career counting record is Mike Trout most likely to break? Probably Runs, right?

   12. Brian Posted: August 21, 2019 at 01:10 PM (#5873201)
In the non-Trout category Devers has to get some consideration.
   13. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 21, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5873204)
What career counting record is Mike Trout most likely to break? Probably Runs, right?


That's a pretty tall order -- not impossible, but he needs about 1400 to pass Rickey!.... Total bases? He needs 4300(!) to get by Hank.

I'd say HRs would be most likely.

Honestly, I think he's probably got a better shot at the WAR or WAA top spots.
   14. PreservedFish Posted: August 21, 2019 at 01:40 PM (#5873206)
WAR is only kinda a counting stat, of course. You can go backwards.
   15. DL from MN Posted: August 21, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5873207)
It's crazy that the Angels have managed to give significant playing time to 4 veteran players who are somehow WORSE than Pujols (Lucroy, Cozart, Upton, Bour).
   16. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2019 at 01:48 PM (#5873208)
@13: A shot perhaps, but not much more than that. He's probably going to end the year at about 75 WAR. He'd need another 90 to get into the conversation, 95 if he wants to avoid debates about wartime credit for Williams and Mays, 110 more if he wants to avoid debates about Ruth pitching. If he plays 12 more years, he'd need to average 7.5-8 WAR/year, maybe more. He's a great player, but that's quite a task.

Similar issue with WAA. He needs 70 more to catch Ruth. That's about 6 WAA/year for the next 12 years. Again, not impossible but really damn hard.

   17. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 21, 2019 at 01:55 PM (#5873209)
not impossible, but he needs about 1400 to pass Rickey!


That's only 140 per year if he plays 10 more years. He currently averages 110 or so, so it's pretty close. Give him another 3 years, and he'd be right on pace.
   18. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: August 21, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5873220)
A shot perhaps, but not much more than that. He's probably going to end the year at about 75 WAR. He'd need another 90 to get into the conversation, 95 if he wants to avoid debates about wartime credit for Williams and Mays, 110 more if he wants to avoid debates about Ruth pitching. If he plays 12 more years, he'd need to average 7.5-8 WAR/year, maybe more. He's a great player, but that's quite a task.


I seem to recall a writer saying Trout would probably not get to 100 WAR when he'd already amassed 40 or so WAR. I can't remember who it was though. Maybe it was a good bet at that point in time, but now it would take a freakish injury or a cliff dive to keep him under 100 WAR.
   19. TomH Posted: August 21, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5873223)
Trout is way less than half to most any career record. He will need lots of health and lots of talent to break any of them. He has Mantle's game with Aaron's great consistency to date, but he will need to play a long time, which is why even Willie Mays has no "records", only his Record.

Trout's best Record may be the Most MVP votes ever.

   20. bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent Posted: August 21, 2019 at 02:42 PM (#5873224)
Andruw had like 61 fWAR through age 29 and ended up at 67. Just a reminder.
   21. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: August 21, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5873225)
In career WAR, Trout will probably pass the following by the end of next week or so: Larry Walker, Paul Waner (that's the good one), Arky Vaughn, and Jim Thome.

By the end of the season he's got a shot at passing: Pud Galvin, Frank Thomas (the big hurt one), Reggie Jackson, and Luke Appling. Add Lou Whitaker to the list if he has a strong September.

If he has a typical Trout season next year (I'm calling that 9 WAR), he'll pass: Johnny Bench, Sam Thompson, Old Hoss Radbourne, Bill Dahlen, Paul Molitor, Jim McCormick, Bobby Wallace, Ozzie Smith, Robin Yount, Joe DiMaggio (!), Brooks Robinson, Dan Brouthers, Curt Schilling, Pete Rose, Jeff Bagwell, Tom Glavine, Charlie Gehringer, Nolan Ryan, Rod Carew, Mike Mussina, John Clarkson, Ken Griffey Jr. (!!), and Pedro Martinez.

He's one ordinary-for-Trout season away from besting Ken Griffey Jr., and when he does he will have just finished his age 28 season. Sink your mind into that for a while.
   22. Booey Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:01 PM (#5873233)
What career counting record is Mike Trout most likely to break?


This is one (more) thing that makes me a bit sad about the present state of MLB; it doesn't look like we're going to see ANY record chases for single season OR career records anytime soon (by individual players, I mean), not even by the undisputed greatest player of this generation. Current trends make just about all of the significant records unreachable. Strikeouts are at an all time high...but pitcher usage has dropped so much that no one will ever approach Ryan's season or career K's record. Homers are also at an all time high, but it's more due to the fact that everyone hits 20-30 than it is due to astronomically high individual seasons like we saw during the original incarnation of sillyball. We see a few fluke sillyball-esque seasons here and there like Stanton and Judge's 2017, but neither has come within 20 homers of those totals since (or before, in Stanton's case). There just aren't consistent 45-50+ homer guys anymore like there were with McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, Griffey, and A-Rod. Only Pujols and Nelson Cruz have more than two 40 HR seasons to their resume, and only Pujols and Chris Davis - who um, aren't those players anymore - have reached 45 more than once.

He could still get banned for fixing the WS.


Let's be more realistic; all it would take is a reason - real or circumstantial - for 26% of voters to suspect him of PED use. Let's not forget that there's a player as good as peak Trout, and another who's pretty close - and both with much longer careers - still wasting away on the current ballot year after year.
   23. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:02 PM (#5873234)
Trout's best Record may be the Most MVP votes ever.

That is a great call.

Current MVP Shares; he may be as high as 5th after this season.

Rank Most Valuable Player Award Shares
1. Barry Bonds (7 wins) 9.30
2. Stan Musial* (3 wins) 6.96
3. Albert Pujols (3 wins) 6.91
4. Ted Williams* (2 wins) 6.43
5. Willie Mays* (2 wins) 5.94
6. Mickey Mantle* (3 wins) 5.79
7. Hank Aaron* (1 win) 5.45
Joe DiMaggio* (3 wins) 5.45
Lou Gehrig* (2 wins) 5.45
10. Alex Rodriguez (3 wins) 5.23
11. Mike Trout (2 wins) 5.0
   24. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5873235)
He's one ordinary-for-Trout season away from besting Ken Griffey Jr., and when he does he will have just finished his age 28 season. Sink your mind into that for a while.


Actually - Griffey Jr is another well-taken case in point to the fact that WAR (and especially WAA) don't always keep accumulating. Jr posted only 7.6 additional WAR after age 30 and actually lost almost 5 WAA.

EDIT: To add - that 7.6 includes his only >1 WAR season.... 1.9 at age 31, but I wanted to use 30 as a clean break.
   25. JAHV Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5873236)
I was thinking that he might have a shot at times on base, but it would take 13 seasons (at least) at his current pace to pass Rose.

I do think runs are his best bet. The Angels as a team are once again mediocre (the .500est team of all time by one measure! They've spent 400 games over the last three seasons within 5 games of .500, which tops the 91 - 93 Cubs). But that's because their pitching is terrible. Their hitting is good, and they have a pretty nice path to get even better in the near future with Adell and some other hitting prospects on the way. So scoring runs shouldn't be an issue. If he's healthy (which is the assumption for all of these things), he could put up 115 - 130 runs a season for a while. At that pace, even accounting for some fall off later in his career, he'll need 12 seasons to approach Henderson, which takes him through his age 39 season.
   26. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5873237)
Andruw had like 61 fWAR through age 29 and ended up at 67. Just a reminder.


Fair, but I think there are a couple of differences. Andruw had power, but his predominant skill was his defense, which is tough to measure and declines quickly. Trout has a broad skill-set and excels at multiple aspects of the game.

Andruw was never close to the player Trout was and is. Andruw's best season was worth 8.2 bWAR. Trout has already exceeded that single season total six times.

By my count, there are thirteen position players who have posted 10 or more bWAR in multiple seasons. One of them is Trout. The other twelve are as follows (ordered by career position player WAR, i.e., ignoring Ruth's pitching).

10-WAR   Career
Player            Seasons   WAR
Barry Bonds         3       162.8
Babe Ruth           9       162.1
Willie Mays         6       156.4
Ty Cobb             3       151.0
Tris Speaker        2       134.1
Honus Wagner        2       130.8
Rogers Hornsby      6       127.0
Ted Williams        3       123.1
Lou Gehrig          2       112.4
Mickey Mantle       3       110.3
Carl Yastrzemski    2       96.4
Cal Ripken
Jr.     2       95.9

Mean                3.6     130.2
Median              3       128.9 


Obviously, someone has to be the one to break the pattern, but the worst career for someone with multi-10-WAR seasons is Cal Ripken or Yaz. Maybe Trout forgets how to hit tomorrow, but I wouldn't bet on it.
   27. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5873240)
Actually - Griffey Jr is another well-taken case in point to the fact that WAR (and especially WAA) don't always keep accumulating. Jr posted only 7.6 additional WAR after age 30 and actually lost almost 5 WAA.

EDIT: To add - that 7.6 includes his only >1 WAR season.... 1.9 at age 31, but I wanted to use 30 as a clean break.


If Trout adds 1 WAR for the rest of this season, then he will be sitting at 73.5 WAR. If he then has Ken Griffey, Jr.'s career from age 28 onward (24.7 WAR), then Trout ends up with 98.2 WAR. He'd be 21st or 22nd on the all-time list for position players (depending on whether Pujols sinks back below 100 and then 98 WAR), which puts him ahead of Eddie Mathews and just behind Joe Morgan at 20th.

Not to reiterate my previous post, but Griffey was simply not the hitter that Trout is either. Griffey's best OPS+ seasons were 171, 171, 165, 155, 154, and 150. Trout has never been worse than 168 in anything approaching a full season. He's already exceeded 171 in five full seasons and sits at 187 this year. We keep pointing to exceptional players that cliff-dived, but the problem is that Trout is clearly superior to pretty much all of these players.
   28. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 21, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5873247)
I don't disagree...

I'm mainly dealing with my disappointment in apparently being able to work PI properly :-) (i.e., my edit above was about thinking he was higher on the list than he actually was and realizing that I must have screwed something up when my career totals had some obvious omissions).

I was ready to ask the question "When do we start seriously asking if he can supplant Willie Mays as the CF on our all-time team?"

Now, I realize that while it's not impossible he could - he needs to keep being Trout for another decade before we can actually ask that!

...of course - you know, not necessarily being better yet than Willie Mays is still pretty damn good!
   29. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2019 at 05:21 PM (#5873269)
Trout is actually ahead of Mays' pace, even giving Willie credit for wartime service. With wartime credit, Mays would have been at roughly 72 WAR at the end of the season in which he turned 28, while Trout will be at roughly 75. BUT, Mays then averaged almost 10.1 WAR/year for the next seven years (70.5; only Ruth had a better 7 year stretch, at 70.9).
   30. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: August 21, 2019 at 06:21 PM (#5873279)
Trout is actually ahead of Mays' pace, even giving Willie credit for wartime service. With wartime credit, Mays would have been at roughly 72 WAR at the end of the season in which he turned 28, while Trout will be at roughly 75. BUT, Mays then averaged almost 10.1 WAR/year for the next seven years (70.5; only Ruth had a better 7-year stretch, at 70.9).


Yeah, this is the issue. Can Trout keep this up - or roughly 8-10 WAR a year for the next decade? I mean, I hate to bet against him, but very few folks have done that, and as much as I love Trout, I can't see him getting 9 WAR at 38 years old. But, stranger things have happened.
   31. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2019 at 06:46 PM (#5873287)
Looking at it another way, if Trout gets 10.3 WAR this year (he's at 8.3 now), he will have averaged 9.25 WAR/season not counting his rookie year. Ruth had a 15 year stretch in which he averaged 9.77. It's just insanely hard to get into that conversation without timelining.
   32. PS is probably something something Posted: August 21, 2019 at 07:48 PM (#5873292)
Just to put a few numbers to it, I ran some quick Favorite Toy checks, to see what he does have a chance of breaking. (Stats as of Aug 20 2019, and slightly tweaked to handle the season in progress.)

HR: 282 now + 352 proj = 634. Record = 762, 23% chance
SO: 1108 now + 991 proj = 2099. Record: 2558, 17% chance (assuming no one raises the bar first)
Runs: 894 now + 886 proj = 1780. Record = 2295, 13% chance
TB: 2503 now + 2519 proj = 5022. Record: 6856, 8% chance
BB: 792 now + 942 proj = 1734. Record: 2558, 3% chance

Not the most thorough analysis, but it's not unreasonable.

Edit:
rWAR: 72.5 now + 77.0 proj = 149.5. Record: 182.4, 20% chance.
   33. AndrewJ Posted: August 21, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5873300)
Bill James, in his original Historical Abstract (1985), had Mantle as the greatest-ever CF in terms of peak value. Trout just might replace him. Heck, Trout might be among the Top 5 all time, any position, for Peak value.

Current MVP Shares; he may be as high as 5th after this season.

As I've said here more than once, Hank Aaron got MVP votes every year from 1955 to 1973 -- and 28-year-old Mike Trout is poised to roll right by him in career MVP Shares.
   34. Rob_Wood Posted: August 21, 2019 at 08:36 PM (#5873303)
Mays' first nine seasons were 154-game seasons.
   35. Howie Menckel Posted: August 21, 2019 at 08:59 PM (#5873305)
Mantle played the bulk of his career in a mostly-segregated AL. he had virtually no non-white serious batting rivals to compete against.

not his fault, obviously. but sometimes people want to "dock" a Ruth or a Cobb, but not Mickey.

Willie had rivals like Aaron and McCovey and Banks and Clemente and Frank Robinson and on and on. and hey, some of the white guys weren't bad, either. :)

and duh, Mantle is still one of the greatest players ever. but in these very rarified air conversations.....
   36. ReggieThomasLives Posted: August 21, 2019 at 09:04 PM (#5873306)
Andruw had like 61 fWAR through age 29 and ended up at 67. Just a reminder


Andruw had 29.8 WAA at the end of his age 27 season.

Mike Trout has 55.1 WAA and his age 27 season is not done. That's almost double a player who had a lock HOF career at that point.
   37. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2019 at 09:36 PM (#5873310)
Mays' first nine seasons were 154-game seasons.


True, so if you pro-rate that out to 162 games/season, you could add another 3.5 or so WAR to Mays' total (assuming wartime credit). However, because Mays was much more durable than Trout has been, Trout would lead on a WAR/game or WAR/PA basis.
   38. Rob_Wood Posted: August 21, 2019 at 10:20 PM (#5873318)
I don't want to revisit old debates (there never were and never will be settled), but many people think that WAR/game or WAR/PA are meaningless.
   39. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2019 at 10:31 PM (#5873327)
For some purposes, yeah. The question here though is "how likely is Trout to catch Mays during the remainder of his career? That is, is Trout's rate of production high enough?". For this purpose, I think it's useful but obviously the key component of that is the issue raised above: will Trout stay healthy?
   40. Rob_Wood Posted: August 21, 2019 at 11:17 PM (#5873347)
Completely agree!
   41. Banta Posted: August 22, 2019 at 12:39 AM (#5873357)
Over-under 125 career WAR for Trout, what are you picking?

I'd hate it, but I'm pretty picking under. It's probably unreasonable to expect him to put up another borderline HoF career after what he's already accomplished.
   42. SoSH U at work Posted: August 22, 2019 at 12:57 AM (#5873360)
Over. Well over.

   43. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: August 22, 2019 at 08:44 AM (#5873377)
I think 125 is the perfect O/U at this point. I'd take the under in the name of conservatism. That said, if he ends up with 120ish WAR, then I'd probably consider him a better player than most of the guys I mentioned in post #26. The exceptions would be Ruth, Bonds, Mays, and maybe Williams with war credit. I'm also assuming that the 120ish WAR is amassed with some normal aging curve. I don't know how I'd feel if he put up two more MVP seasons after this one and then Johnny Damoned his way through his thirties to 120 WAR.
   44. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2019 at 08:44 AM (#5873379)
Slightly over. I think he'll top out around 140.
   45. SandyRiver Posted: August 22, 2019 at 09:21 AM (#5873392)
Trout is actually ahead of Mays' pace, even giving Willie credit for wartime service. With wartime credit, Mays would have been at roughly 72 WAR at the end of the season in which he turned 28, while Trout will be at roughly 75. BUT, Mays then averaged almost 10.1 WAR/year for the next seven years (70.5; only Ruth had a better 7 year stretch, at 70.9).

Nitpick on Ruth's WAR. From BBRef, that 70.9 looks like it's 1926-32, his only 7-year run with no seasons under 8.0. However, 1923-29 has 71.3 WAR and 1920-26 shows 71.9. That last period includes his holdout season (1922) and the "Big Bellyache" (1925.) The other 5 seasons averaged 12.4.
   46. TomH Posted: August 22, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5873395)
comps to Mays: Not only health for Trout to be Mays, but skillset; Mays played a Great CF thru about age 35, and a passable CF thru age 40+. Trout ain't gonna be a good CFer that long. When does he move to LF or RF (1B, DH)?
   47. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5873401)
@45: Thanks.
   48. puck Posted: August 22, 2019 at 10:12 AM (#5873402)
Is Albert Pujols' record in his 30's fairly "normal"? (I realize it's probably a pretty small group of players who did what he did in his 20's, so there's no real normal here.)

Looking back at it, it doesn't seem as bad as it feels now...he's only really been horrible the past few years, age 37-39, which doesn't seem unusual. He did stop being Albert Pujols! in his age 31 or age 32 year. So I guess compared to his 20's, it feels like the decline has last a long long time.
   49. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 22, 2019 at 10:53 AM (#5873412)
Is Albert Pujols' record in his 30's fairly "normal"? (I realize it's probably a pretty small group of players who did what he did in his 20's, so there's no real normal here.)

Looking back at it, it doesn't seem as bad as it feels now...he's only really been horrible the past few years, age 37-39, which doesn't seem unusual. He did stop being Albert Pujols! in his age 31 or age 32 year. So I guess compared to his 20's, it feels like the decline has last a long long time.


I was looking at this recently to see how similar Votto's decline has been. Really, Pujols' downward slope doesn't look that bad. He had an other-worldly peak (OPS+ of 177 from 2003-2010) that ended when he was 30. He then had two full seasons of 148 (last in STL) and 138. He's hurt the next year as a 33 year-old (99 games, 116 OPS+), but bounces back to 126 the following season. So that's a four-year, post-peak run with a 134 OPS+ - still pretty good, if no longer MVP level. In his age 35 and 36 seasons, he's still above average (118 and 113 over full seasons). It wasn't until he was 37 that he fell below 100.

Votto really plummeted in comparison - he's gone from a 167 OPS+ (2nd in MVP) just two years ago to a 96 OPS+ this year. Maybe this year can be attributed to the back and he rebounds next season to something like last year (126 OPS+, still very good OBP but declining power). But he's turning 36 in a few weeks.
   50. Chokeland Bill Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5873418)
Pujols' walk rate and OBP crashed in 2011 when he stopped getting IBB'd 30+ times a year (and presumably fewer "intentional" walks as well). Trout's walk rate seems a little more real, and he's probably still an elite hitter batting .270 rather than .300.
   51. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5873429)
I doubt Similarity Scores are much use for a guy like Trout, but 8 of his 10 "most similar" didn't age well: Griffey, Mantle, Cabrera, Cepeda, Ott, Mathews, Jones, Pujols. His other 2 -- Robinson and Aaron -- are probably better examples.
   52. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5873431)
IDK - even if you take the poor agers, that still ought to give another ~3-4 years of still being "Mike Trout".... which ought to get him past 100 WAR with ease - maybe closer to 110 or so.

Even Pujols still posted 3 WAR at age 35 (8 years away for Trout).

So gimme the over on 125.

   53. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:32 AM (#5873433)
Pujols decline coincided exactly with a league-wide drop in hitting. So his decline was a bit exaggerated by the league context. IOW, his raw numbers went down way faster than his OPS+, but it was hard not to look at the raw numbers and see a guy really falling off.
   54. Zonk Rocks You Like a Sharpiecane Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5873436)
The interesting question might be what happens to him when (if?) he has to adjust his game... He's still posting plus numbers in CF - indeed, a quick napkin says that even he wasn't much of a hitter - he'd be a defensive upgrade alone for 20-25 teams in CF.

But - it's probably fair to expect that at some point, he'll slide to a corner spot. Cutch looked - purely by the numbers - like he's still a pretty good OF, just not one who can CF regularly anymore.

This is also why I liked HRs as hit best counting stat record chance - and I like that favorite toy agrees. He might pass 50 for the first time this year -- but he hasn't given away anything otherwise. If the legs go a bit, the quickness inevitably declines... it feels like he's got a couple of adjustment notches to go before he ends up at Pujolsian levels of just wait-and-whack.
   55. SandyRiver Posted: August 22, 2019 at 12:53 PM (#5873463)
I doubt Similarity Scores are much use for a guy like Trout, but 8 of his 10 "most similar" didn't age well: Griffey, Mantle, Cabrera, Cepeda, Ott, Mathews, Jones, Pujols. His other 2 -- Robinson and Aaron -- are probably better examples.

Pretty stiff criteria for aging well - must approach/pass 40 at a high level. Looking at just 2 and only OPS+, Ott and Mantle had age 33-36 seasons comparable to Robbie and not that far behind Hank. Of course, immediately after that Ott fell off the cliff big time and Mantle retired. (And IMO Mantle's late decline was set in stone Oct. 5, 1951. His is far from the only great career shortened/derailed by injuries, but probably the only inner circle HOFer dealing with serious injury issues nearly his entire MLB time.)
   56. Rally Posted: August 22, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5873467)
My guess is that an older Trout will hit for a much lower batting average and more K but still be valuable as a 3 true outcome guy. I can't see him ever putting up the kind of OBP we've seen out of Pujols for the last 7 years. His strike zone judgment is just too good.
   57. Ithaca2323 Posted: August 22, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5873469)
I'd take the over on Trout's WAR at 125. Probably the under on the HRs
   58. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5873536)
@55: You're right -- "aging well" is kind of vague. I see it in 2 steps, up to 35 and after 35. Players need to maintain a pretty high level until 35 and then decline gradually rather than fall off a cliff. For Trout, I'd think a target of 125 should reachable by 35 (Mays was at 129, Aaron was at 119). As long as he doesn't fall off the proverbial cliff after that, he'll probably be in the conversation for greatest ever.
   59. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5873558)
I should note that Mays was at 129 without any wartime credit. He'd have been at roughly 140 or so with such credit. Anyway, that range between Aaron and Mays seems to me to set a guide for a player as great as Trout.
   60. GregD Posted: August 22, 2019 at 09:10 PM (#5873628)
The likely gap with Mays is really revelatory. Trout seems like a perfect player to me; I always assumed Mays was just Trout 1.0. If Mays’ record is really Trout this far plus upping his level for the next ten seasons, we’ll thats just inconceivable to me. My limitation obviously

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