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Friday, June 22, 2018

Mike Trout Is Compiling a Historic Season and the Angels Are Wasting It Again

“This June is on track to be the best month of Trout’s career.”

Bouncing and pounding
My head the backboard
I need release to let it flow
And I was ready
Really ready
I was ready to explode

Oh wasted time

As someone might say, this boy Trout is really good.

Lest we forget Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:00 AM | 147 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, goat, mvp, trout

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   101. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 27, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5700472)
I think it's pretty easy. You vote for 10, include all the great SPs (Clemens, Mussina, Schilling) and say "I can't vote for a RP when there are elite SPs, who were much, much better pitchers than Rivera, still waiting.


if there're 10 players more deserving than Rivera, sure. By WAR, he's 15th on the ballot, but there's good arguments that he's more deserving than Pettitte, Sosa, Sheffield, Jones, and Helton. But you could also argue he's not.
   102. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5700483)
if there're 10 players more deserving than Rivera, sure. By WAR, he's 15th on the ballot, but there's good arguments that he's more deserving than Pettitte, Sosa, Sheffield, Jones, and Helton. But you could also argue he's not.

If you were holding a draft, and everyone knew for certain what their careers would look like, I'm 100% certain that Rivera would be drafted after those 5 guys. It's not a knock on his talent, it's just that RPs have far less impact than starters or every day players. And it's much easier to find great RPs.

We saw it with Rivera's own career. When he missed a full season the Yankees slotted in Soriano, and didn't miss a beat. When he retired, they did the same with Robertson.
   103. PreservedFish Posted: June 27, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5700544)
I'm 100% certain that Rivera would be drafted after those 5 guys

I'm not sure. You get 20 years of all-star performance at the one position most likely to cause meda/fan strife. No doubt some GMs would pick him last, but I don't know if all would.

(Assuming you get reserve clause rules for this, otherwise it turns into a question about their first 6ish years which is less interesting)
   104. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5700566)
I'm not sure. You get 20 years of all-star performance at the one position most likely to cause meda/fan strife. No doubt some GMs would pick him last, but I don't know if all would.

(Assuming you get reserve clause rules for this, otherwise it turns into a question about their first 6ish years which is less interesting)


Yes, assuming Reserve Clause.

I just that 3 WAR per year, for 19 years, isn't going to do nearly as much in terms of marginal Pennants added, as guys who have a bunch of 5+ WAR seasons mixed in. Also, very few teams struggle to find a good closer. Lots of teams struggle to find a CF, or SPs, or middle of the order bats.

If we were doing a DMB league of his era, I'd probably take a bunch of guys with lower WAR before him, e.g. Delgado, Giambi, Tejada.
   105. PreservedFish Posted: June 27, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5700575)
The insane postseason numbers aren't nothing, either. Pennants added is one thing, but in reality Rivera may lead baseball history in "championships added."
   106. PreservedFish Posted: June 27, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5700576)
If we were doing a DMB league of his era, I'd probably take a bunch of guys with lower WAR before him, e.g. Delgado, Giambi, Tejada.


If it were DMB, Andruw Jones would go before any of them.
   107. McCoy Posted: June 27, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5700585)
If it is OOTP 13 you'd be a fool not to draft Rock Shoulders with your first pick.
   108. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5700588)
The insane postseason numbers aren't nothing, either. Pennants added is one thing, but in reality Rivera may lead baseball history in "championships added."

Unlikely. If you look at it series by series, his great performances were mostly in series the Yankees won easily, and he had several memorable blowups.

Just 2001 WS G7 has to be worth like -0.6 WS added.

If it were DMB, Andruw Jones would go before any of them.

True. But even assuming more modest defensive numbers, I'd still take Jones over any RP that has ever lived.
   109. Ithaca2323 Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5700714)
I'm excited for the people who will specifically cite Rivera's three shutout innings in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS when voting for him, and completely un-ironically not vote for Mike Mussina

Unlikely. If you look at it series by series, his great performances were mostly in series the Yankees won easily, and he had several memorable blowups.


Reminds me of Dennis Eckersley. Eck, for as great a closer as he was considered, was arguably the biggest reason the As were the dynasty that never was. Blew Game 1 of 1988 WS, allowed winning run in Game 2 of 1990 WS (the game was tied), and got lit up Game 4 of 1992 ALCS.

They didn't directly contribute to the As failing to win the series the way many of Rivera's blowups did. But he seemed to be at his best when the As were taking on clearly overmatched opponents like the Red Sox and Giants, and struggled in series where he might have actually played a critical role had he been on his game.
   110. Nasty Nate Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5700733)
For Eck in the '88 ALCS and Rivera in many series, their teams won the series "easily" because, in part, they pitched well. I know their performances can be overrated, but we shouldn't create a Catch-22 about their role.
   111. SoSH U at work Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5700737)
Unlikely. If you look at it series by series, his great performances were mostly in series the Yankees won easily, and he had several memorable blowups.


If he has more blown performances, those series don't necessarily get won easily.

Look at the ALCS in 1999. He throws a two-inning save in Game 1 in a one-run, 10-inning win. He saves another one-run game in Game 2, then gets a double play in the bottom of the eighth of Game 4 to keep it close, and the Yanks blow it open in the ninth (with help). They win the series 4-1, but reverse one of those games and then you're looking at a 3-2 series with the Sox having Pedro in Game 6 (or, if it got that far, a Game 7 game against Pedro). So a blowout becomes a possible seven-game set.

And the flip side of this is his memorable "blow-up" in 2004. His blown save in Game 4 was in the lowest leverage situation possible, a 3-0 series lead and one that still left the game tied (he did nothing wrong in his BS in Game 5).

Edit: Partial coke to Nate.

   112. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:32 PM (#5700745)
Look at the ALCS in 1999. He throws a two-inning save in Game 1 in a one-run, 10-inning win. He saves another one-run game in Game 2, then gets a double play in the bottom of the eighth of Game 4 to keep it close, and the Yanks blow it open in the ninth (with help). They win the series 4-1, but reverse one of those games and then you're looking at a 3-2 series with the Sox having Pedro in Game 6 (or, if it got that far, a Game 7 game against Pedro). So a blowout becomes a possible seven-game set.

Right. But he blows one of those saves, the Yankees are still highly likely to win the series. Even if it takes 6 or 7. There's no bonus pts. for winning in 5 vs 6 or 7.

And the flip side of this is his memorable "blow-up" in 2004. His blown save in Game 4 was in the lowest leverage situation possible, a 3-0 series lead and one that still left the game tied (he did nothing wrong in his BS in Game 5).

Low leverage, but going from Series Over to 3-1 is still a large shift in probability of winning. He also blew the save in game 5.

Realistically, every decent closer saves a huge % of their games. Regular season, or playoffs. If the Yankees had gone through a series of good but not elite closer, instead of having Rivera, I think they'd very likely have the same number of Championships.

I don't think they could have replaced Jeter, or Williams, or Posada, or Pettitte nearly as easily.

   113. SoSH U at work Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5700753)
Right. But he blows one of those saves, the Yankees are still highly likely to win the series. Even if it takes 6 or 7. There's no bonus pts. for winning in 5 vs 6 or 7.


If they're facing peak Pedro in Game 6, they're highly likely to be looking at a Game 7.

Low leverage, but going from Series Over to 3-1 is still a large shift in probability of winning. He also blew the save in game 5.


Every blown save does that, this one just much less than the rest. You're completely ignoring the good results and (clearly, since you bring up the blown save in Game 5*), making much more of the bad ones.

We get it. You think Mo has historically been overrated, so you've got to completely underrate him to counter that. Understood.

* No one remotely interested in an honest argument brings up a blown save in a game in which the reliever comes on with runners on first and third and nobody out in the eighth and yields just a sac fly in two innings of work.

   114. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5700758)
We get it. You think Mo has historically been overrated, so you've got to completely underrate him to counter that. Understood.

I think EVERY CLOSER has been historically over-rated. Except for the SP hybrids, they're generally not great pitchers. Rivera's just the one that people are talking about 100% HoF votes. Gossage, Fingers, and Sutter don't belong in the HoF either.

Again, in 2012 the Yankees were forced to replace Rivera with Rafael Freaking Soriano. Soriano pitched as well as Rivera in the regular season and flawlessly in the post-season.

The modern closer's job is probably the single easiest in baseball.
   115. BDC Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5700763)
For Eck in the '88 ALCS and Rivera in many series, their teams won the series "easily" because, in part, they pitched well. I know their performances can be overrated, but we shouldn't create a Catch-22 about their role

Exactly. (EDIT: And as SoSH says, ignoring the good to focus on the bad is tendentious.) Bottom line, Rivera gave up 13 runs in 11 postseason appearances; he had 85 scoreless appearances. Naturally those 13 runs were costly in context, but his rate of success was pretty good.

If you take a great season by a closer – Trevor Hoffman in 1998, let's say: 53 saves, 4 WAR, that's pretty great. Anyway, in 1998 Trevor Hoffman was scored on in nine appearances, giving up 12 runs. He had 57 scoreless appearances. And that's regular season, it includes nine scoreless games against the fire-sale Marlins and the expansion Diamondbacks. Rivera in the postseason was better than that level of great, in more appearances, against better competition.
   116. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5700767)
Rivera in the postseason was better than that level of great, in more appearances, against better competition.

He pitched great. As well as any reliever, ever. Stipulated.

That's not my point. My point is that replacing him would have been relatively easy. A series of closers with 25% worse performance very likely gets the Yankees the same number of Pennants and Championship.
   117. SoSH U at work Posted: June 27, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5700771)
I think EVERY CLOSER has been historically over-rated. Except for the SP hybrids, they're generally not great pitchers. Rivera's just the one that people are talking about 100% HoF votes. Gossage, Fingers, and Sutter don't belong in the HoF either.


This is true. I'd put Rivera in, and I'm kind of on the fence with Wilhelm. The rest clearly don't belong. But a Hall that had none of them wouldn't offend me.

Again, in 2012 the Yankees were forced to replace Rivera with Rafael Freaking Soriano. Soriano pitched as well as Rivera in the regular season and flawlessly in the post-season.


Yes, they've had good luck with relievers, which has clearly spoiled you. There's a reason he's Rafael Freaking Soriano. Most of the time, he wasn't that good.

Detroit couldn't find a bullpen for a decade. Seattle before that had the same problem. While easy, it's not automatic.

The closer's job is probably the single easiest in baseball.


Short reliever is clearly the easiest job in baseball.

So, I agree with a lot of this.

The problem is you've taken this generally sound position and expanded it to absolutely ridiculous lengths.
   118. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5700802)
Short reliever is clearly the easiest job in baseball.

So, I agree with a lot of this.

The problem is you've taken this generally sound position and expanded it to absolutely stupid proportions. Don't do that.


My position is simply that Rivera was not as good a baseball player as Pettitte, Sosa, Sheffield, Jones, Helton, Giambi, Delgado, Cone, Saberhagen, Guidry, Stieb, and 200 other guys who are never going to sniff the HoF.

What's stupid about that?

When I see people treating him like an all-time great, when better players he played with are overlooked, it annoys me.
   119. Rally Posted: June 27, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5700812)
He also blew the save in game 5.


I don't count game 5 as a blown save. Sure, technically it is, but consider the situation he was placed in:

Yankees up 1. Runners on 1st/3rd. Runner on 3rd is Dave Roberts. Nobody out. This is not the 9th inning either, but the 8th. He is being asked to get 6 outs, one day after a 2 inning, 40 pitch game 4.

He does get his 6 outs, but a sac fly scores the runner from third, and the Yankees eventually win in extras.

Out of curiosity, has any relief pitcher ever entered a more difficult situation and closed out a playoff series?
   120. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5700821)
I don't count game 5 as a blown save. Sure, technically it is, but consider the situation he was placed in:

Yankees up 1. Runners on 1st/3rd. Runner on 3rd is Dave Roberts. Nobody out. This is not the 9th inning either, but the 8th. He is being asked to get 6 outs, one day after a 2 inning, 40 pitch game 4.

He does get his 6 outs, but a sac fly scores the runner from third, and the Yankees eventually win in extras.

Out of curiosity, has any relief pitcher ever entered a more difficult situation and closed out a playoff series?


He didn't pitch badly, I agree. But it was an opportunity to massively increase the team's Championship probability.

I don't have the BRef kung-fu to answer that question.
   121. Rally Posted: June 27, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5700838)
I went to pitcher game finder, look for postseason games where the pitcher had 2+ innings, saved the game, and it was the last game of the series. There were 32 such games, from there I started looking at the one run games. But from there I've got to click on each game individually to see the circumstances.

Madison Bumgarner's 2014 game is a legend, pitching 5 innings to preserve a 3-2 lead, with no more runs added in his support. But he game into a clean 5th, not a runner on 3rd, nobody out situation.

Pete Alexander had a 7 out save in the 1926 series which started with striking out Lazzeri with the bases loaded in the 7th and ended with Babe Ruth caught stealing. But when he entered the game he had the opportunity to strand the baserunners with any kind of out, a luxury Mariano did not have.

5 innings > 2 innings so I understand if people put Bumgarner's situation as the higher level of difficulty. If I have time later I'm just curious if anyone else came into a game needing 6 or more outs, nobody out in the inning, runner on third, one run game, and proceeded to clinch a postseason series.
   122. Rally Posted: June 27, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5700860)
I don't know if any pitcher was ever placed in such a position in a potential series ending game, but looking through the game logs, I can confirm no pitcher ever earned a save after being placed in such a position.

For added degree of difficulty, Roberts scored on a sac fly to center, where Bernie Williams was playing. My memory is that the flyball was deep enough that with any CF the run would have scored, especially with a guy like Roberts running. But it would be hard to find a center fielder with a worse chance of throwing a runner out or holding him to third than Bernie.
   123. Nasty Nate Posted: June 27, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5700861)
...and the Yankees eventually win in extras.
not in this timeline
   124. Rally Posted: June 27, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5700880)
Yeah, brain fart there.

Youtubed the Varitek sac fly to score Roberts. Medium depth fly ball.

1. I don't think anybody throws out Roberts on that play
2. I don't think Bernie throws out anybody from there
3. With an average CF arm, and average runner, probably a 1 in 3 chance for out at the plate.
   125. dlf Posted: June 27, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5700896)
Detroit couldn't find a bullpen for a decade. Seattle before that had the same problem. While easy, it's not automatic.


If the Braves had a Mariano level closer in the 90s instead of going through its version of Rafael fricken Soriano each year, whether dressed as Jeff Reardon, Alejandro Pena, or Mark Wohlers and his f***ing hanging slider, it would be Atlanta and not New York that would be considered the great modern dynasty. Finding one as good as Mo was in the playoffs is either not easy or two Hall of Fame execs are grossly overrated.
   126. Ithaca2323 Posted: June 27, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5700941)
From 1988-1990, Eckersley appeared in 13 A's victories. In 10 of those 13, he had a lead of two runs or more when he entered. In 1989, the lone year the A's won the World Series, they were up by 4, 5, 3, 2, 4, and 3 runs when he entered

A majority of the time Eckersley closed out A's victories, they were comfortably ahead.

Oakland absolutely could have won the 1989 ALCS and WS, and the 1990 ALCS without his help. He helped them appreciably in one of their series wins, and appreciably hurt them in two series losses. To me, that's a net negative
   127. Ithaca2323 Posted: June 27, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5700962)
He is being asked to get 6 outs, one day after a 2 inning, 40 pitch game 4.


A problem at least partially of his own creation, considering he blew the save in Game 4 by pitching poorly.
   128. QLE Posted: June 27, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5700963)
The difference between his case and Griffey's is that in Mo's case all votes will become public knowledge.


Will they? The BBWAA voted overwhelmingly in 2016 for all votes on the last ballot to be public, and the HOF overruled them on that.
   129. SoSH U at work Posted: June 27, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5700989)
My position is simply that Rivera was not as good a baseball player as Pettitte, Sosa, Sheffield, Jones, Helton, Giambi, Delgado, Cone, Saberhagen, Guidry, Stieb, and 200 other guys who are never going to sniff the HoF.

What's stupid about that?

There's nothing wrong with that, necessarily (i don't agree on some of them, but it's defensible). It's the parts where you ignore the good results and fixate on the bad ones in your analysis. Or where you cite game 5 of 2004 as an example. Or all of the other little things that detract from your point that relieving is easier by pretending that Rivera added nothing to the Yankees. That part.

When I see people treating him like an all-time great, when better players he played with are overlooked, it annoys me.


And when you pretend that you can just plug in anybody and get the exact same results, right back at you.
   130. Blastin Posted: June 27, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5701003)
Snapper, your two person sample of Great Seasons By Other Yankee Closers, put it to bed. The Yankees have had robust bullpens for twenty plus years. If they were most other teams, losing Rivera would have been a huge blow. Stop it.



But yes, sure, it's the easiest of baseball jobs to do competently, and a HOVG 1B is more overall valuable.

Can you put your hobby horse to bed now?

He's getting in because he pitched ridiculous in the postseason (yes, even including the failures) and because he did it for a longer time than other relievers. If he were to get some 100% it wouldn't be based on quality but just because people like him.
   131. Ithaca2323 Posted: June 27, 2018 at 05:04 PM (#5701034)
Since we're discussing Rivera and 100%, I would not vote for him on this ballot:

Bonds, Clemens, Mussina, Edgar, Schilling, Walker, Halladay, A. Jones, Rolen, Wagner

That's right. I'm not trolling, and I'd vote for Billy Wagner over Rivera. Why? Because like it or not, the voters have decided that guys like Hoffman and Sutter represent HOFers, and Wagner clears that standard, and I'd rather contribute to the awareness of that fact by increasing Wagner's percentage however small than worry about the 100% crowd—easily the most tiresome segment of HOF commenters
   132. John DiFool2 Posted: June 27, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5701036)
Except for the SP hybrids, they're generally not great pitchers.


Many of them are (were) great pitchers.

Few pitched enough innings to accumulate great value.
   133. SoSH U at work Posted: June 27, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5701045)
That's right. I'm not trolling, and I'd vote for Billy Wagner over Rivera.


Wagner also should serve to increase awareness of the whole plug anyone into the playoffs argument. In 11.2 playoff innings, he yielded 13 earned runs, or two more than Mo did in 141.

Rivera is not going to get 100 percent.
   134. BDC Posted: June 27, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5701047)
A series of closers with 25% worse performance very likely gets the Yankees the same number of Pennants and Championships

Just to return to this for a second, and truly not to pile on, snapper, but I find it interesting to work through.

There are two warrants involved: one, that postseason Rivera was 25% percentage better than some attainable level. I suggested that it was some percentage (I dunno if 25%) better than Trevor Hoffman at his peak; but of course the Yankees wouldn't have been replacing Rivera with Trevor Hoffman at his peak for two straight decades. Is it 25% better than a star closer? Than an ordinary closer? Than the typical Texas Rangers closer? :) As several people have noted, replacing Rivera even at a consistent lower level of play is tough.

The other warrant, "they would have won without him," is also problematic. Greatness is about greatness; to some extent it's supposed to be superfluous, and the more the better. You could argue that the '20s-'30s Yankees would have won the same number of championships if they'd had a string of outfielders who hit 25% fewer home runs than Babe Ruth. But that's not an argument that undercuts Babe Ruth.
   135. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: June 27, 2018 at 06:50 PM (#5701095)
I think EVERY CLOSER has been historically over-rated.


This is the smartest thing you have ever posted here. I agree with your position with respect to closers and the HOF, none belong...ever.

Manny Mota was the greatest pinch hitter who ever played(or was that Don Baylor?), neither are sniffing the HOF. Heck, that haven't even voted Edgar in yet. If you want to elect a part time player, he's your poster child for great value in a limited role.

I agree that Rivera did his job better then anyone else has ever done, however like Snapper points out, there are about 100 players long retired who have provided more value over their careers who will continue to have to buy a ticket to get into the HOF.

Yes, he is the greatest relief pitcher ever. No, he is not one of the greatest baseball players of all time, or even one of the best pitchers of all time.
   136. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 07:11 PM (#5701104)
That's not my point. My point is that replacing him would have been relatively easy. A series of closers with 25% worse performance very likely gets the Yankees the same number of Pennants and Championship.

That's probably true (depending on how you define 25% worse). The thing is, with closers the alternative isn't Rivera or someone 25% worse than him every year. The alternative is more likely that 75% of the time you get a guy who is [almost] as good as Rivera and 25% of the time you get a guy who has an 6 ERA and blows 2 saves in a postseason series. Rivera's consistency, as much as his quality, is what makes him a HOFer in my mind.
   137. manchestermets Posted: June 27, 2018 at 07:27 PM (#5701117)
There's no bonus pts. for winning in 5 vs 6 or 7.


It has value, surely. At the very least, it allows you greater flexibility with your rotation for the next round if there is one - much better to be able to start your 1 and 2 pitchers in games 1 and 2 than in games 6 & 7 of the previous round. And I presume there's some value in getting a couple of days extra rest for all the team.
   138. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2018 at 09:17 PM (#5701176)
I don't think they could have replaced Jeter, or Williams, or Posada, or Pettitte nearly as easily.

Easily disprovable. There is no other reliever peer to Mo that was as good as he was for as long as he was. To replace Mo you would need to know in advance which short reliever was going to have a sub-2 ERA. I think the Tigers have successfully demonstrated the flaw in that approach.

Edit: lots of starters convert and have success out of the pen. I am aware of none that have turned in careers similar to Mo' s. What he did year to year is not remarkable. What is remarkable is that he did what he did for as long as he did.

Pettitte is replaceable by any number of starters, in part because outside of his early career and his run in Houston he was not that good. Williams could have been replaced by signing someone like Lofton, which they eventually did. The Yanks could have traded for Piazza or Tek in 98 or whenever instead of relying on Posada.

Jeter was a singular player but he had at least one peer doing what he did better over the course of career. Mo did not.
   139. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 09:31 PM (#5701182)
There is no other reliever peer to Mo that was as good as he was for as long as he was.

So what?

To replace Mo you would need to know in advance which short reliever was going to have a sub-2 ERA.

No. A 3.00 ERA closer saves 95% of the games a 2.00 ERA closer does.

Again, the role is really, really easy. Pretty much every half-way decent SP could do it at a very high level.

Jeter was a singular player but he had at least one peer doing what he did better over the course of career. Mo did not.

If you think Rivera was more valuable to the Yankees than Jeter, I really can't help you. You find 20 great relief pitchers for every one great SS. And that comes from somebody who also hates how over-rated Jeter is.
   140. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2018 at 09:35 PM (#5701183)
No. A 3.00 ERA closer saves 95% of the games a 2.00 ERA closer does.

That's a super unpersuasive argument, no matter how often you say it. That's like saying Joe Carter drove in 95% of the runs of Frank Thomas did (which may or may not be the case, I don't care).

Maybe he did, for a year or two, but thats only a small part of the evaluation. You can trot this argument out when a huge wave of consistent 3.00 ERA closers do it for many years straight.
   141. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2018 at 09:38 PM (#5701184)
Again, the role is really, really easy. Pretty much every half-way decent SP could do it at a very high level.

For 15 years? Do you have even one example?

If you think Rivera was more valuable to the Yankees than Jeter, I really can't help you. You find 20 great relief pitchers for every one great SS. And that comes from somebody who also hates how over-rated Jeter is.

Read what you wrote. You were talking about replacing Mo, not value.
   142. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 09:44 PM (#5701187)
For 15 years? Do you have even one example?


The Yankees didn't have to replace him with one guy. They could have used a different guy every 2 to 3 years.

The Yankees paid full market price for the last 12 years of his career. There was no particular value in having one guy.

Read what you wrote. You were talking about replacing Mo, not value.

Right. There were 20 or 30 guys every year who could give you 90% of Mo's value, and 2 or 3 who could give you 90% of Jeter's.

Again, the Yankees replaced Mo twice without missing a beat. Not because Mo wasn't better than anyone else at his role, he was. But, because his roles was so easy.

We even have a clear parallel with Jeter. In 2012 the Yankees had to replace Rivera and went from his 2.9 WAR in 2011, to Soriano's 2.6 WAR. In 2013 when they had to replace a much-diminished Jeter, they went from his 2.2 WAR in 2012, to Nunez' -1.5 WAR. Who was easier to replace?
   143. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2018 at 09:49 PM (#5701194)
They could have used a different guy every 2 to 3 years.

Since you are repeating yourself, I'll do the same.

To replace Mo you would need to know in advance which short reliever was going to have a sub-2 ERA. I think the Tigers have successfully demonstrated the flaw in that approach.

. There were 20 or 30 guys every year who could give you 90% of Mo's value, and 2 or 3 who could give you 90% of Jeter's.

Ludicrous. I doubt Mo was only a top 30 reliever every year. And you still haven't explained how one would know which relievers would be as good as him in a given year.
   144. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2018 at 09:52 PM (#5701195)
Who was easier to replace?

Mo's current replacement makes a lot more than Jeter's does. I know enough about baseball to selectively pick data points too.

Now, please, tell me how you identify which relievers will have a 2.00 ERA each year. That would be very useful info to have.
   145. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2018 at 10:00 PM (#5701200)
What made Mo unique in MLB hisotry was his ability to provide extremely high quality relief pitching every year. There were guys who were better at times, Papelbon and Gagne come to mind, but none had anything like his staying power.

If you can't acknowledge that quality and the value that particular trait provided the Yanks, rather than having to guess at which closer to sign year-to-year, I'm happy to walk away from the conversation.
   146. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 27, 2018 at 10:19 PM (#5701211)
If you can't acknowledge that quality and the value that particular trait provided the Yanks, rather than having to guess at which closer to sign year-to-year, I'm happy to walk away from the conversation.

I can acknowledge the quality. He was absolutely the best short reliever ever. No question.

I question the value. I question the value because the role is so very much easier than any other position.

Feel free to walk away. I think we've exhausted this topic.
   147. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2018 at 10:38 PM (#5701228)
I question the value. I question the value because the role is so very much easier than any other position.

I'm fine with that statement. That's not what I took as your meaning.

Feel free to walk away. I think we've exhausted this topic.

Agreed! Have a good night.
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