Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Mike Trout will undergo season-ending foot surgery this week | LA Times

Mike Trout’s stellar 2019 season is officially over.

The Angels center fielder will undergo season-ending surgery to remove the Morton’s neuroma in his right foot, the team announced Sunday. Manager Brad Ausmus says Trout will not play again this season. Morton’s neuroma is a condition that causes pain in the the ball of the foot.

I AM SO SAD INSIDE.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 15, 2019 at 03:22 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, everything is the fucking worst, mike trout

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: September 15, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5879385)
I submitted the same story (albeit from a different source). So someone with keys kill that submission.

Trout going down is just terrible. Every game that we don't get to see him play is a game that we lose out on seeing possibly the best player of our lives on the field.*

This also means that Alex Bregman, with a hot September, might manage to snatch the MVP award away from him. I'm starting to have the feeling that when it is all said and done, Trout will deserve, like, 16 MVP awards, but only win two.

(*Maybe. He's still got a ways to go to catch Barry Lamar.)
   2. Darren Posted: September 15, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5879386)
Another MVP opportunity down the drain.
   3. AndrewJ Posted: September 15, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5879391)
Sigh. This is why we can't have nice things.
   4. Itchy Row Posted: September 15, 2019 at 04:20 PM (#5879395)
This season sucks. Let’s just skip to 2020 and never speak of this year again.
   5. Bote Man sez Deivi is MoY Posted: September 15, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5879398)
I submitted the same story (albeit from a different source). So someone with keys kill that submission.

Don't worry, Jim F. will post it Thursday.
   6. bunyon Posted: September 15, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5879401)
You guys aren’t pessimistic enough. Foot problems can lead down ugly paths.
   7. flournoy Posted: September 15, 2019 at 04:46 PM (#5879404)
So says a guy named "bunyon."
   8. bunyon Posted: September 15, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5879406)
Heh.
   9. The Duke Posted: September 15, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5879444)
Albert can now explain to him what will happen when foot injuries sap your super-human powers
   10. Walt Davis Posted: September 15, 2019 at 09:20 PM (#5879469)
With one more appearance, he'll have his 10 "years" and save the BBWAA the 5-second discussion on whether to waive the 10-year requirement.
   11. Jack Sommers Posted: September 16, 2019 at 12:28 AM (#5879522)
Missed games

2017-48
2018-22
2019-28

Total, 98, avg 33 G per year missed

   12. Lest we forget Posted: September 16, 2019 at 07:48 AM (#5879534)
He is wining the MVP. No one else can touch it. It's sewn up.

And it brings to the table the possibility that both leagues' MVPs might have spent the final 3 to 4 weeks of the season off the field. I'm betting Yelich bags a batting crown.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: September 16, 2019 at 08:37 AM (#5879537)
11 games shouldn't matter much, but Bregman does seem like an entirely reasonable MVP choice. His hitting numbers are not that far behind Trout's, and he's covered shortstop ably for 50+ games.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 16, 2019 at 09:29 AM (#5879548)
11 games shouldn't matter much, but Bregman does seem like an entirely reasonable MVP choice. His hitting numbers are not that far behind Trout's, and he's covered shortstop ably for 50+ games.

It's certainly not a gimme for Trout. Right now BRef has Trout at 8.3 WAR, Bregman 7.5, FG has it 8.6 to 7.4. A good 2 weeks by Bregman and that's certainly going to be within the margin of error.

155 Gs of a 164 wRC+ from a 3B/SS on a division winner vs. 135 Gs of 179 wRC+ from a CF on an also ran. That could go either way.
   15. michaelplank has knowledgeable eyes Posted: September 16, 2019 at 12:47 PM (#5879628)
Trout has "only" 1324 career hits, which seems...low. I'm sure there are sophisticated formulas and whatnot, but eyeballing it, I don't see him on a strong pace toward 3000. The recent injuries don't help.
   16. caspian88 Posted: September 16, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5879641)
With the Angels' luck, the doctors will accidentally amputate his foot and Trout will only be a 4-5 WAR player for the next decade.
   17. cookiedabookie Posted: September 16, 2019 at 01:40 PM (#5879650)
@15 That happens when you walk a lot. Trout's already been on base 2200+ times. Everyone ahead of him on the active leaderboard is at least three years older than him (Andrus), with no 28, 29, or 31 year olds, and one 32 year old (McCutchen). The closest player his age or younger is Harper, but he's almost 450 behind.
   18. bunyon Posted: September 16, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5879694)
Trout has "only" 1324 career hits, which seems...low. I'm sure there are sophisticated formulas and whatnot, but eyeballing it, I don't see him on a strong pace toward 3000. The recent injuries don't help.

Do we know if Trout drinks? Because he's a dead ringer for Mantle.
   19. DavidFoss Posted: September 16, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5879695)
1324 would be 8th among 3000-hit players through his age-27 season.

name_common,H
Ty Cobb
,1727
Robin Yount
,1541
Alex Rodriguez
,1535
Al Kaline
,1511
Hank Aaron
,1506
Albert Pujols
,1344
Tris Speaker
,1327
Adrian Beltre
,1269
George Brett
,1257
Cal Ripken
,1236
Roberto Clemente
,1230
Stan Musial
,1225
Eddie Collins
,1221
Carl Yastrzemski
,1201
Derek Jeter
,1199
Rickey Henderson
,1182
Eddie Murray
,1175
Willie Mays
,1111
Pete Rose
,1109
Nap Lajoie
,1086
Paul Waner
,1057
Rod Carew
,1048
Tony Gwynn
,988
Dave Winfield
,980
Rafael Palmeiro
,968
Paul Molitor
,909
Honus Wagner
,848
Lou Brock
,821
Craig Biggio
,799
Cap Anson
,780
Wade Boggs
,771
Ichiro Suzuki
,242 


Trout needs a long career to get to 3000 -- guys like Cecil Travis & Freddie Lindstrom were ahead of him but each failed to even reach 2000 -- but he's not "behind" the pace of other 3000-hit players.

   20. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 16, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5879719)
Do we know if Trout drinks? Because he's a dead ringer for Mantle.


Let's find out what brand Mantle drank and give it to him.
   21. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: September 16, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5879722)
1324 would be 8th among 3000-hit players through his age-27 season.

[snip]

Tris Speaker,1327


By WAR he's already more than halfway to Speaker. If he keeps up his current pace until he's 34 or so, he should catch him. Obviously that's a big ask, but given Trout's consistency, and despite the recent injuries, it's not totally impossible. So, question, are you disappointed (even if you acknowledge that it's irrational) if Trout "only" ends up being Tris Speaker?
   22. Walt Davis Posted: September 16, 2019 at 06:14 PM (#5879775)
Trout has "only" 1324 career hits, which seems...low. I'm sure there are sophisticated formulas and whatnot, but eyeballing it, I don't see him on a strong pace toward 3000. The recent injuries don't help.

As #19 shows, that's hardly a disqualifier. There are two routes to 3000 hits -- hit like Gwynn, Carew, etc. or get a ton of ABs. That latter is greatly helped by being full-time in the majors by 19-20. That doesn't guarantee it but Trout has a chance similar to Beltre, Ripken, etc. Alas, walks and playing time might well stop him -- he's gonna need at least 10,000 ABs which means he's gonna need at least 12,000 PAs ... nearly 7,000 more.

In its way, just a reminder that singles aren't all that important. Trout's BA is "just" 305. In his peak years, Pujols hit 337. Miggy hit 326 over 11 years and still carries a 315 career. Trout will likely be closer to F Robinson who also played a good chunk during a low BA era (he won his one batting title with a 316) -- he hit 294 over his career and stopped 57 hits short.

We can of course write some of that off to "context" -- Trout's 305 career average comes in a 250 BA world. Aaron hit 305 career in a 261 world. But this current context is partly the choice of batters. Trout's 275 ISO through age 27 (3000+ PAs) is 11th all-time. The top 6 guys were all pre-expansion, eras when if you were great enough you could hit 330 with power and walks (Ruth, Foxx, Gehrig, Greenberg, Ted ... Kiner had the modern style).

And not to rain on the Mike Trout parade -- because that would be silly to suggest -- but his OPS+ is "just" 176 and he has "only" one season over 190. In his 8-year run of mega-greatness, Pujols had a 177 average with a 189 and 192. Even before he broke the record, Bonds had an 11-year run of 180, topping 200 twice and adding a couple of 188s. Trout is an extra-special WAR god not just because he's a great hitter (we've seen a few before) but he does it playing a good CF with baserunning. That's what keeps him up there with Pujols (an oustanding defensive 1B and solid runner in his youth) and Bonds (his peak peripherals kinda blow Trout out of the water) ... and of course doing it at 20 is nearly unprecedented.
   23. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 16, 2019 at 07:20 PM (#5879788)
These "most hits by age-XX" lists are not that important at age 27. It might tell you that the player gets a lot of hits, or it might just tell you that he was up in MLB very early.

Looking at the list of players with the most hits by age 27, only 17 of the top 100 made it to 3,000. Also 10 of the top 50 and 6 of the top 25.

I would have thought the list of guys with the most hits from ages 25-27 would be more predictive (Trout's not on that list), but it isn't -- again, 17 of the top 100, 9 of the top 50, and 5 of the top 25 made it to 3,000 hits.

Being on *both* lists doesn't add much, surprisingly. 37 guys are in the top 100 on both lists, but only 8 of those made it to 3,000. 8 guys are in the top 50 on both lists but only one (Hank Aaron) made it to 3,000. None of the 3 guys who were in the top 25 on both lists made it to 3,000, but Hornsby and Keeler, who retired with 2,930 and 2,932 hits, respectively, would almost certainly have reached 3,000 if it were a "thing" when they were playing.

As Walt says, there are a few ways to get to 3,000 -- and it doesn't require starting really early *or* putting up a ton of hits in your mid-20s (although those help). Of the 32 guys with 3,000 hits, 14 of them weren't in the top 50 on either list, and 6 of them weren't even in the top 100 (Anson, Lajoie, Molitor, Winfield, Ichiro, and Biggio).

Note: All of the above excludes active players from the lists (except for Pujols, since he's already reached 3,000).
   24. Walt Davis Posted: September 17, 2019 at 07:19 PM (#5880157)
Following on #3 ... step #1 is getting yourself to at least 9000 ABs (not PAs) which is pretty much the absolute minimum need to get to 3000 hits, at least in any reasonable era. There are only 73 players to make it to 9000 ABs in history. So that in itself is an achievement.

Dahlen, Ozzie and Jimmy Rollins are the only players with 9000+ ABs not to reach at least 2,500 hits (they all just missed). 57 of the 73 made it to 2700. Your major freak is Brooks Robinson who made it over 2800 hits on just a 267 BA thanks to over 10,000 ABs (Omar is similar ... and further similarities between him, Aparicio and Maranville).

Anyway, of the 73, 32 of them have made it to 3000+ hits. 12 of them "had" to get to at least 10,000 ABs (i.e. they had a career BA under 300). Trout's very likely to fall into that latter group and, given his walk rate, likely needs about 12,000 PA to get over 10,000 AB. There are 22 players who've topped 12,000 PAs. Bonds and Vizquel are the only two without 3,000 hits. Bonds, Aaron, Mays, Pujols, ARod, Palmeiro, Winfield, Murray are (under the circumstances) reasonable sims for the sort of hitter/player Trout is and only Bonds (barely) missed 3000. Alas guys like Ruth, FRob, Sheffield, Chipper would fit into that group as well but didn't last long enough.

So let's all wish Mr. Trout a long and healthy baseball life.
   25. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: September 17, 2019 at 09:28 PM (#5880209)
Trout has "only" 1324 career hits, which seems...low. I'm sure there are sophisticated formulas and whatnot, but eyeballing it, I don't see him on a strong pace toward 3000.

The decidedly unsophisticated Favorite Toy (original version) gives him a 7% chance.
   26. Rally Posted: September 17, 2019 at 09:53 PM (#5880230)
Let's find out what brand Mantle drank and give it to him.


Mickey liked the brand that had alcohol in it.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
The Ghost of Sox Fans Past
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - NBA thread (pre-season)
(671 - 12:31am, Oct 23)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

NewsblogOMNICHATTER! for the 2019 World Series
(176 - 12:30am, Oct 23)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogAstros Staffer's Outburst at Female Reporters Illustrates MLB's Forgive-and-Forget Attitude Toward Domestic Violence
(203 - 12:20am, Oct 23)
Last: base ball chick

NewsblogOT- Soccer Thread- October 2019
(211 - 10:07pm, Oct 22)
Last: Richard

NewsblogCatch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (October 2019)
(531 - 9:42pm, Oct 22)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogAstros Announce First Pitch Participants Ahead of World Series Game 1
(9 - 8:01pm, Oct 22)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogAstros enter World Series against Nationals as heaviest favorites since 2007
(44 - 7:42pm, Oct 22)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogJavy Baez named ‘MLB The Show 20’ cover athlete
(7 - 6:43pm, Oct 22)
Last: Manny Coon

NewsblogOT - 2019 NFL thread
(53 - 6:24pm, Oct 22)
Last: Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB)

NewsblogNationals to host World Series watch parties at stadium for Games 1 and 2
(33 - 5:56pm, Oct 22)
Last: pikepredator

NewsblogMLB rumors: Phillies narrow manager search to Dusty Baker, Joe Girardi, Buck Showalter
(15 - 5:47pm, Oct 22)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-22-2019
(9 - 3:35pm, Oct 22)
Last: The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie)

NewsblogMike Schmidt: Why can’t I just accept it’s all about power?
(8 - 2:44pm, Oct 22)
Last: Greg Pope

NewsblogSt. Louis therapy dog makes good on NLCS wager, reps Nationals gear
(5 - 12:05pm, Oct 22)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-21-2019
(29 - 10:42am, Oct 22)
Last: SandyRiver

Page rendered in 0.4040 seconds
46 querie(s) executed