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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, July 06, 2008
In a bold move designed to end the club’s 26-year playoff drought, the Milwaukee Brewers agreed in principle Sunday night to acquire Cleveland left-handed pitcher C.C. Sabathia in exchange for top prospect Matt LaPorta and three other minor-leaguers.
A Brewers official confirmed the deal, which will be officially announced today by both teams. The Brewers are expected to have the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner on the mound Tuesday night at Miller Park against the Colorado Rockies.
...
But a source familiar with the discussions said minor-league pitchers Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson also were in the deal. A fourth player, officially designated as “to be named later,” could turn out to be third baseman Taylor Green, the Brewers’ minor-league player of the year in 2007.
...
To part with LaPorta, the Brewers told the Indians they had to get a deal done by Sunday night. Sabathia’s next scheduled turn is Tuesday, and the Brewers knew if they could get him on the mound by then, he could take another turn on Sunday, the final day before the all-star break.
The Brewers sweep the Pirates and now have the second best record in the NL, and this, too. Productive day.
UPDATE: [Brewers’] Sabathia press conference at 11 a.m.
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When I saw Gamel's "fielding" stats last year I thought his purpose in the organization was to make Ryan Braun look like a good defender by comparison. Between him and LaPorta, they are both 1B in the big leagues or else serious defensive liabilities.
Gamel might be the better hitter. At least it's close. He's hitting better this year and is half a year younger. The only thing wrong with Gamel's 2007 is lack of homerun power, but he was hitting in the Florida State league, and he sure hit a bunch of doubles and triples. His season was probably the equivalent of a guy in the California league hitting .340 with 25 dingers.
But LaRoche has never actually gotten a chance, and what's more, the Dodgers don't have anybody remotely major league caliber blocking him. Colletti/Torre simply refuse to let LaRoche play, now or ever, period, end of story. It's been made abundantly clear by now.
Justin, don't forget... "Blake DeWitt, he's a ballplayer."
He's supposed to be absolutely fantastic defensively. He was one of those SS who previously fell into the "if he could only hit a little bit, he'd be something" category.
His Huntsville line has flaws, to be sure, but at 21 it's encouraging.
Its getting close to the point where Dewitt needs to be demoted to AAA and play everyday. He had a nice little run in May but he needs more ABs- maybe even re-introducing him to 2b.
This should be the Dodgers lineup going forward after the all star break:
RF Kemp
LF Ethier
C Martin
2b Kent
1b Loney
CF Jones
*SS Nomar
3b Larochr
* I don't care how bad he is going to be defensively. We need to run him out there until all his muscles and ligaments explode because I cannot stand watching Angel Berroa play anymore and trading for Jack Wilson is not an option if it requires any semblance of a prospect.
Since his first week after being activated, he's been starting about half the games. The two players who have gotten starts at third besides him are DeWitt - who is a better fielder, and has outhit him, and Russell Martin (which I'll grant is a mistake, but not for reasons of quality).
If you haven't noticed that, you just haven't paid actual attention to the games.
What's been made clear is that the Dodgers aren't sure who should be the starter at third. The better fielder, who has hit better in the majors but hasn't been considered the better prospect, or the top prospect who hasn't actually produced at the major league level. Period, end of story.
I think its debatable who the better fielder is.
The main parts of the deal are done. The Brewers wanted to get the deal done today so that CC can start on Tuesday and then start on Sunday (both home starts). They figure if they are giving up LaPorta, they should get every possible start out of it.
There seem to be some negotiations going on with Green as the PTBNL, but that's about it.
Player A: .322 OBP, .379 SLG
Player B: .325 OBP, .412 SLG
Playtell, good sir, in which universe may we rule that Player A has "outhit" Player B?
But what the hell do I know; I didn't watch the games. I'm sure DeWitt smashes the ball all over the place, while LaRoche pops up or something.
Watching what they've done at the major league level - I don't think it's particularly debatable. I'm confident that the coaches don't think so. LaRoche looks smooth enough - but DeWitt has actually consistently turned the plays.
Maybe in the long term LaRoche will be better - if he's letting jitters affect his performance. Although that's a reason to play DeWitt, of course, for now.
Zone Rating is far from perfect, of course, and sample sizes apply - but LaRoche's is .696 and DeWitt's is .801 - that's a rather large difference.
I would bet on LaRoche on having a better major league career - but the Dodgers are trying to win this season, and DeWitt has been better so far - although I did post the other day that I expect LaRoche to eventually win the job this season, since the Dodgers ARE giving both of them a chance. I am just skeptical at this point that LaRoche is going to be the big star that some believe. At this stage I expect him to be a solid major leaguer, maybe with one outstanding year or so - not the sort of player that teams curse themselves for trading, especially big budget teams like the Dodgers.
But as I said earlier, it would be a mistake to trade him for Jack Wilson. Even though shortstop is such a blatant hole.
But seriously, if you're at a point where you're even considering giving up a property of value for Jack Wilson and his contract, you're already doomed. Just play whoever you have and see what happens.
Good of you to admit it, since you didn't realize that LaRoche has been playing as much as DeWitt, rather thinking that he was buried and not being given any chance.
Nice that you can find the time to look up stat lines without actually paying attention to playing time, though. Oh, and you looked up the stats which were updated after today's game, not the stats actually relevant to the playing time the player's have gotten, including today. But that's what I'd expect from somebody who hasn't paid enough attention to know that LaRoche hasn't actually been buried for playing time.
And in fact I've posted they should just let Nomar play. None of us think that trading for Jack Wilson is a good idea. If he were freely available, that would be one thing. Trading a good prospect for him - that's something entirely different.
When the hell will have have better odds? Oh, I know - it's best to have all your ducks line up at the same time, but that's not always feasible. This trade works out so perfectly for them - the team with the biggest chit to give up has exactly the kind of needs the Brewers can best meet. That ain't bloody likely to happen again like this. And your better off with Sheets & Sabathia than Sheets and Gallardo.
This puts them in the playoffs -- with one of the best 1-2 punches in the majors. Arizona is the only team in the league with a comparable 1-2 punch, but #### 'em, they're under .500.
The odds are still against the Brewers, but the odds are against every team. Whether it be 1 in 8 for the ring or just 1 in 4 for the pennant, always take the field against one team. With Sabathia, they have an excellent shot. They just need - DUN-DUN-DUUUNNNN - everyone to stay healthy.
Milwaukee has the following games left to play against:
Reds - 12
Cubs - 10 (7 in Milwaukee)
Pirates - 9
Padres - 7
Cards - 6
Astros - 6
Colorad - 4
Phillies - 4
Nationals - 4
Mets - 3
Dodgers 3
Braves - 3
Giants - 3
Marlins - 0
D-backs - 0
They have 40 home games left and 34 road games.
Pretty much every guy who becomes a regular shortstop in the big leagues was probably considered fantastic defensively in the minors. Not to say Escobar won't be, I just wouldn't consider it a sure thing. Hanley Ramirez was supposed to be a gold glove defender. Then again, in the minors he rarely hit for power. You never know what you're going to get with prospects.
I agree Escobar looks like a good one.
DeWitt: 264 PAs. LaRoche: 40 PAs. Looks like it.
And since LaRoche's line this year is such a uselessly small sample size, I thought about including last year's equally small sample size (combined, they're about half as many PAs as DeWitt has this year.) But I decided against it, since it makes LaRoche look even better relative to DeWitt, with the OBP and all.
In which of the thirteen hells can anybody even argue Blake DeWitt's a better player, right now, than Andy LaRoche? The entire idea is based upon about three hot weeks that are now well in the past. DeWitt was atrocious after June 1.
I didn't bring up Blake DeWitt when I was initially talking about how stupid Colletti is to refuse to give LaRoche a chance heretofore. I thought about it, but something in the back of my head was telling me LaRoche was injured at the time the need arose, and that's why they called DeWitt up. Then DeWitt had that hot three weeks, and Torre or somebody got addicted to him. Am I recalling this correctly?
Proves? No. But then, I've never said he couldn't produce at the major league level. The 158 plate appearances he has had aren't all that promising, though - not that he will never produce, but it gives reason to doubt that he will be the big star that some here seem to believe.
He's nearly 25, he's had three callups now, and has yet to produce. Not a sure sign of him not being a big star, but reason to doubt that he will be. Again, since everybody seems to miss this point, it's not that he won't be a solid enough major leaguer - it's that the odds of him becoming a star are getting longer. There are players who became big stars after not producing in three callups and 158 plate appearances. But there are more players who were considered to be big stars who ended up not being so after not taking advantage of their opportunities.
Personally, when I look at players, the rule of thumb is that the older a player is after he gets a chance to establish himself, the less of a chance he is to be a star. LaRoche could have won the starting job out of spring training in 2007, even with Nomar there, and didn't. He didn't win it during the season. He's being given a chance to win it now, and hasn't yet, even with DeWitt slumping. He could suddenly amaze, but I'm getting more skeptical.
That doesn't mean I want him traded. I've said so multiple times. It does mean that trading him isn't the same as trading a player I expect to be a star, like Kemp for instance.
That's pathetic. You do realize that LaRoche has been hurt, and some think he is still hurting?
You really don't actually watch games, I guess. Seriously, if you resort to such a ridiculous point. Here's a clue - LaRoche badly injured his shoulder in spring training. His defense in the majors hasn't been good in the small sample size. His hitting in the minors after being activated wasn't at the level of the year before (again, small sample size). Despite this, since he was actually promoted to the major leagues, after about a week feeling out period - he has had about the same number of starts at third as DeWitt. I'm not sure how you don't realize that. It's been pointed out multiple times. You've spent time looking up other stats - why not actually check what is in contention?
Once again - the Dodgers have NOT buried LaRoche. They are trying to decide who to be the regular at third, and are giving both players approximately equal chances, once LaRoche actually was on the major league roster and showed he was somewhat healthy.
translation: Dodgers are trading Kemp for Wilson.
I took your advice and checked. LaRoche has started 9 games in the past 28 days, 5 games in the past 14 days. DeWitt, 16 and 7.
I think this is why you and I are having trouble communicating. I'm not watching the games, and you're making numbers up as you go along.
I wouldn't worry too much about that. There's a good chance the Pirates would turn that down and demand Chan Ho Park instead.
In that time, DeWitt has had 15 starts, all at his natural position of third base, and 64 plate appearances - nearly 50 percent more than LaRoche has had. DeWitt has played 14 complete games.
It seems to me that if a player has played 50 percent more than another player, that's not equal.
By the way, I agree with the premise that LaRoche might not be a star. But as I wrote today, when you never get to start more than two games in a row, when you're pulled from the game at every opportunity, I'm not sure how one can argue that you've gotten a fair chance.
Anyway, the only real issue right now is not whether LaRoche is a star, but whether LaRoche deserves more playing time to show what he can do. Since he has outhit DeWitt both as a minor leaguer and as a major leaguer, despite not getting the opportunity to get in a groove, I'd give LaRoche the benefit of the doubt - regardless of whether he becomes a star or not.
Beyond that, we're not talking about the relative merits of playing a proven half-decent veteran at third base in an effort to win now vs. the need to develop a young guy by letting him play a few months unhindered. That's not the case at all. What we're dealing with here is Andy LaRoche is clearly and obviously the best third baseman in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization, and if you want to win now, he needs to be playing third base, and if you think he can't hack it, then you need to look for a better third baseman. Not replace him with a guy who's two years younger and has a much lesser track record (DeWitt).
Garciaparra's a decent 3B defensively and has been getting on base. If you want to argue he should play, that's fine with me. But the problem is, he's never healthy enough to play more than a few games in a row. Absent him, it defies all explanation not to simply park LaRoche at third base for the rest of the year and hope for the best.
If the Dodgers are not willing to play LaRoche every day now, they're never going to be. What, they're going to wait until they suck, and then let him try? When they start sucking, Ned will be fired anyway. LaRoche is never going to get a chance from this team.
Park has been so ace this year! Look at fan graphs, his velocity is up on average 3mph on his fb and slider compared to the previous 3 years.
Well, naturally you ignored LaRoche starting at second yesterday - I figured you would. Because it's not playing time, after all - him getting a start at second is in no way him getting a chance at the major league level - the very thing you denied after all. That would give him 6 starts to DeWitt's 7. in the last two weeks. Which in any honest evaluation would count as about half the time, especially since I mentioned Martin getting a start (and there are days off).
And of course, I EXPLICITLY said that there was a week or so after he was first recalled where he wasn't playing everyday, as the Dodgers saw whether he was healthy. But naturally you ignored that.
Of course, he hasn't actually been activated for 28 days - I'm wondering why you picked that number, except to falsify the stats.
But I do admit that the past week, there's a chance Torre is turning to a straight platoon of the two, since LaRoche's starts at third have been against lefties.
Of course, that's not the same thing as burying LaRoche, either. Which is what you argued. And the Dodgers didn't face an unusual number of lefties prior to this week, when LaRoche was starting about as much as DeWitt for a period prior to that.
The Mets would play Tatis over both of them.
Also, the shoulder problems were last year. LaRoche was on the DL at the beginning of the year because he broke his wrist in spring training.
Only due to the fact it is after 2 ET/1CT and still just 11 PM on the west coast.
This has already been pointed out, but the performance of Garland has been "flukish" for over 1500 innings now. I always thought he was going to fall apart, but it just never seems to happen. Maybe it eventually will, but I've never been able to figure him out and probably never will.
Not saying I agree. Just relaying the facts.
Proves? No. But then, I've never said he couldn't produce at the major league level. The 158 plate appearances he has had aren't all that promising, though - not that he will never produce, but it gives reason to doubt that he will be the big star that some here seem to believe.
LaRoche's 158 PA in the majors, solely looking at that, haven't been all that promising. You know what else didn't feature any actual good play? Blake DeWitt's professional career. Average of translations by me, BP, and Smith/Sackmann:
2007: 243/275/367
2006: 210/265/313
2005: 236/272/357
Yes, DeWitt's young and could still turn out to be a good player, but there's little in his record that says he's a major leaguer at this point - in his overachieving major league career (82 OPS+), he's hit about the same as LaRoche's "disappointing" injury-filled major league career (80 OPS+).
Pardon me if I don't find LaRoche's terrible zone rating in 7 starts to be something that magically cancels out their entire professional careers.
Well, he did give up the AL's #2 catcher this season for nothing.
I swear, I almost feel sorry for the guy with the way everything he does turns out badly, even when things initially look like they're going his way.
- Navarro's horrific 1st half brought out the carrion crows, but he's now hit 300/353/447 over the last 365 days.
- Furcal finally looks like he's going to put up a superstar season then his back goes.
- The one time Colitis picks up a young player for the MLB team, Ethier-for-Bradley, looked good for awhile, but the team's soured on Ethier and Bradley's healthy and an MVP candidate so far in Texas.
He's like the Typhoid Mary of bad GMs. Take an expensive upside risk chance on Andruw Jones? Have him not just disappoint but actually hit like a pitcher. Swipe the Giants' pinch-hitting God? 6-for-64, baby!
Now in his third season, the sum of Colitis's accomplishments appears to be signing two big-name Japanese pitchers, Clayton Kershaw, and Chad Billingsley continually bailing him out no matter how often the team tries to screw him over. Geez, Dan Evans hasn't been the GM for more than 4 years, Paul DePodesta got exactly one offseason, and both of those men are still responsible for most of everything positive about the team.
I also like the trade because the Brewers are right on the edge of the playoffs, rather than in the playoffs. A team that projects for high-80s in wins in the NL gets a lot more value from a marginal win or two than a team that projects in the mid-90s.
All the reports I've seen indicate that LaPorta was the Indians' top target, and that Gamel and Escobar were only "off limits" as second players in a LaPorta deal.
Colitis's Dodgers aren't exactly strictly demanding their major leaguers produce, so it seems unfair for them to suddenly start with Andy LaRoche.
Perhaps it just worked out that way for both teams in terms of needs and availability, but I don't think Gamel was going anywhere.
MIL J-S blog: Sabathia press conference at 11 a.m.
CLE Plain Dealer: It's official: Indians trade Sabathia to Milwaukee
As an aside, the Cleveland area newspaper coverage of this whole thing has been kind of crappy. They were either seemingly way behind, or quoting Milwaukee reports.
Not surprising. I stopped getting the Cleveland paper last year and don't miss it a bit, horrible sports writing. Unless there's an update on LeBron's new house, then they're all over that. I'd imagine the Cleveland media that actually notices will be pretty tough on Shapiro over this.
As I have written here and elsewhere and as NTN reiterates, Milwaukee was willing to deal because LaPorta simply was not aligned with the needs of the team.
I know everyone HERE regards LaPorta as the best player in the Milwaukee system. But to the BREWERS, LaPorta was excess. Limited defensive skills and a right-handed bat. The Brewers have that stuff.
I think this is Moneyball 4.0. At least.
I tried pointing that out to someone whop claimed that Navarro had done absolutely nothing since he was 19 in AA-
The fellow then claimed he's said "prior to this year Navarro had done nothing (untrue), then said anyway, Navarro simply had a fluke April/May- hasn't hit the past 2 weeks, but then conceded that due to his youth Navarro had a good "chance" to be an MLB average catcher in the future...
I love posters like that...
The Dodger's forced "competition" between LaRoche and DeWitt kind of reminds me of the Red's "competition" between Aaron Boone and Paul Konerko- the Reds for unfathomable reasons:
A: Decided they needed/ could use only one;
B: Really didn't seem to know which player was the better prospect...
LaRoche has had injury issues, but DeWitt's mles were UGLY, and aside from May- he's pretty much played down to his mles.
He's young, but given that LaRoche has outplayed him by very substantial margins whenever and wherever LaRoche has gottena reasonable amount of PT-0 thsi is almost absurd.
LaRoche in the FSL (20/21): .286/.337/.547
DeWitt in the FSL (at 20): .268/.339/.442
DeWitt in AA (at 20): .183 .241 .221
DeWitt in the Cal (at 21): .298/.338/.466 (in case you are unfamiliar with the FSL v the Cal league, he was much worse relative to league at 21 in the Cal League than he was at 20 in the FSL)
DeWitt in AA (at 21): .281 /.306/.466
LaRoche in AA (at 21): .273/.367/.445
LaRoche in AA/AA (at 22): .315/.410/.514
LaRoche overall: .293/.379/.516
deWitt overall: .279/.333/.444
Throw in their MLB numbers, weight their MLB numbers double or triple- it doesn't matter, LaRoche is so far ahead it's absurd.
A: Decided they needed/ could use only one;
B: Really didn't seem to know which player was the better prospect...
Well, Boone has 1100+ games, mostly at 3B. His 95 OPS+ is a bit below-average for a 3B but his glove (by reputation) brings him back up to average I'd think.
Konerko has about 1500 games, almost all at 1B/DH. His 115 OPS+ is a bit above-average (I think) for a 1B but his glove probably brings him back to average.
So, OK, Konerko's been more valuable than Boone, but it's hardly a blowout and the Reds seem to have correctly determined that Konerko was not a 3B. The Reds had the young, still promising Sean Casey at 1B and were able to swap Konerko for Mike Cameron. Great call on the Reds' part even though Casey didn't work out as great as expected (but still 1400 games with a 110 OPS+).
Andy LaRoche could easily claim third base from Blake DeWitt at this point -- all he has to do is start hitting consistently and play adequately at third. It was LaRoche's job to take last year, and it was his job at the beginning of ST.
But the guy cannot stay healthy, and he has done LESS with his playing time to this point than has DeWitt. DeWitt came up gave the Dodgers what they needed when they had no other available options. He's showing that he's not quite ready to stay in the majors, but LaRoche has to take the job from him at this point through performance. It's that simple.
All the whining about how poor Andy hasn't been given a chance is just fitting the facts into the popular story line that Coletti/Torre/Dodgers don't know what they're doing. It's a good story line in many ways, but unless you think they should have run a crippled LaRoche out there full-time, it's not the Dodgers who have been holding him back, but his proneness to injury and lack of performance when he has played.
The point may be rendered moot when they trade him for Wilson.
Coletti gave up Kelly Shoppach for nothing?
At least he didn't give up MLB's #1 second baseball this season for nothing. Or MLB's #5 left fielder this season for nothing. Or...
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