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Saturday, December 02, 2017

Miller: Giancarlo Stanton a Dodger? Unlikely and unnecessary – Orange County Register

Let’s be honest, the whole process is a complete mystery. Here we are debating the merits of adding a $295-million slugger, trying to determine how much – if at all – such a move would improve the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, there’s no arguing that this team’s batting order became decidedly more whole this summer when $535,000 Chris Taylor was moved to the leadoff spot.

Ridiculous? Sure, but if baseball made sense, there’d never be a day when Derek Jeter would be leading the Marlins and Alex Rodriguez’s girlfriend would be campaigning for Rodriguez to lead the Yankees.

And, if trading for Giancarlo Stanton were that easy, there’d be no excuse for missing the chance, especially for the Dodgers.

But this is one juicy, belt-high fastball they should let pass. There’s a reason players rarely are signed for 10 years or more. Unless Stanton is going to opt out, the Dodgers shouldn’t opt in.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 02, 2017 at 07:02 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, giancarlo stanton, marlins

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2017 at 03:20 PM (#5584867)
There’s a reason players rarely are signed for 10 years or more

And the #1 reason for that is that it's a rare player that is so good you'd consider having them around for the next 10 years to begin with. For that small set of very good players, the #1 reason is usually because they don't become FAs until they are in their 30s but are not willing to sign the long-term extensions that they have been offered (if any) before becoming an FA.

The only comparable deal I can think of was the original ARod deal with Tex that covered ages 25-34, a decade in which he put up 71 WAR. Of course it had an opt-out and the Yanks over-reacted and gave him way too many extra years.

There are of course legit reasons to wonder if Stanton is worth 10/$295 (plus whatever players you give up) and part of that is that he's not likely to be very productive from ages 33-37. (Although if ZiPS is correct, those years won't be disasters.) But the first 5 years of that contract are likely to be a huge boon to the team.

The Dodgers are in the comfy position that they probably don't "need" Stanton for 2018-19, they are rich enough to make a play for Harper after 2018, they might think that a Puig extension is a more cost-effective move, etc. For those and other reasons, they may not be willing to give up as much talent as other teams.
   2. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 03, 2017 at 11:47 AM (#5585077)
And they might get Ohtani
   3. ptodd Posted: December 03, 2017 at 05:04 PM (#5585217)
Barring an injury Stanton likely opts out in 3 years. They could trade AGon and Kazmir to offset his 2018 salry and add a couple of prospects. Tons of salary coming off the books after 2018 Stanton gives them a better chance of resigning Kershaw and acquiring Ohtani
   4. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 03, 2017 at 05:44 PM (#5585242)
If Stanton is likely to opt out, why wouldn't the Marlins hold onto him and get the benefit of 3 prime years?
   5. Adam Starblind Posted: December 03, 2017 at 06:57 PM (#5585295)
From a different article:

In the event the Marlins are unable to remove Stanton's $295 million from their current payroll, they are expected to more aggressively pursue dealing 2B Dee Gordon, outfielders Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, 1B Justin Boar, and other less expensive talent.

That is what they should be doing, isn't it?
   6. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 03, 2017 at 07:09 PM (#5585306)
That is what they should be doing, isn't it?

No. they should be trying to build a perennial contender around those guys, not trying to trade them. Justin Bour? he's 1 st year arb eligible. Who the hell trades a productive 1st year arb eligible player to save money? What's he going to get, $3 mil? That's peanuts, even for the Marlins.
   7. Adam Starblind Posted: December 04, 2017 at 07:44 AM (#5585462)
Ok, bad example. Anyone but Stanton though, right?
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2017 at 07:33 PM (#5586103)
#5, #7 ... I'm not sure you grasp what that sentence was trying to say. To meet their supposed payroll target without trading Stanton, they have to trade very single one of those guys (among that "less expensive" talent is Realmuto).

So no, if the "choice" is between trading Stanton or trading all of Yelich, Ozuna, Gordon, Bour and Realmuto, they are better off trading Stanton. He's good but he's not nearly as good as those 5 players combined and the WAR/$ ratio is much higher on those other guys. (Combined, those 5 guys will make about the same as Stanton this year.)

If Stanton is likely to opt out, why wouldn't the Marlins hold onto him and get the benefit of 3 prime years?

Presumably to avoid the risk of the remaining 7 years if that likelihood doesn't come to pass ... and to reduce payroll substantially immediately.

I don't think it's all that likely he'll opt out. It will be 7/$218 that he'd be walking away from. If he's fully healthy and productive and Harper and Machado reset the market for non-Troutian talent then he can probably do better than 7/$218 for his age 31-37 seasons ... but probably not by a lot. Most likely outcome would be the age 38 option gets picked up making it 8/$233 or maybe it gets pushed out to 8/$250. His opt-out also occurs in the same year that Trout is scheduled to be a FA -- maybe that means he'll benefit as the big 2nd prize but more likely he'll be sitting around worrying until Trout signs and the losing teams might feel they need to make two moves not one to make up for missing out on Trout.

But sure, he has a reasonable chance of putting up 18-20 WAR over the next three seasons and teams might go nuts over him. If I recall those ZiPS projections correctly, it figured he'd have about 25 WAR left in him over the last 7 years of the contract and that arguably would be worth something in the $200-250 range. If he does even better over the next 3 years, I suppose that projection might push up to 30 WAR.

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