Realistic strategy or bargaining play?

Maybe a little of both?

I have no idea why they'd deal Pelfrey at this point- he's pitching better than anyone they could get back in a deal.

Agreed w/everyone who said the goatee is the key- he looks like he belongs in the majors right now. No more deer-in-headlights look for him.

Minaya has been unable to identify a player significantly better than a Fernando Tatis/Endy Chavez platoon to make it worthwhile to sacrifice prospect chips.

I don't know what this means, but for his career Endy has a reverse platoon split. Tatis basically has no platoon split, platooning these two is odd... (unless it's an off/def platoon...)

Tatis last 200 or so MLB PAs have been decent, he hit .298/.372/.420 in Ottawa in 2006, .276/.359/.485 in New orleasn in 2007, and .242/.345/.592 in New Orleans in 2008. IOW he's not terrible. His Pecota projection was for a .271 EQA, he probably really can continue to post a 100-105 OPS+...

"I like Carlos Muniz a lot. I think he is going to grow in a nice seventh- or eighth-inning guy. I like Muniz as much as I liked Chad Cordero (when Minaya was Expos GM) in the first round."

I have somehow managed to not see Muniz pitch yet- Met fans I know who have, have not liked what they have seen. His minor league numbers, for a reliever in the minors? Eh, good but not great...

I'm the only Muniz fan in the chatters. I just like his makeup. Not great stuff, but certainly middle-of-the-bullpen stuff.

I have no idea why they'd deal Pelfrey at this point- he's pitching better than anyone they could get back in a deal.

I doubt the Mets are even thinking about trading him right now. Why the heck would they?

Tatis last 200 or so MLB PAs have been decent, he hit .298/.372/.420 in Ottawa in 2006, .276/.359/.485 in New orleasn in 2007, and .242/.345/.592 in New Orleans in 2008. IOW he's not terrible. His Pecota projection was for a .271 EQA, he probably really can continue to post a 100-105 OPS+...

Wow, I am surprised that he projected that well and I doubt that he can hit that well. It's hard to have much confidence in that projection as he'd only had 56 MLB AB in the last 4 years. How many guys have had that career path? If Tatis actually could maintain that, the Mets might be better off just rolling the dice.

I'm the only Muniz fan in the chatters. I just like his makeup. Not great stuff, but certainly middle-of-the-bullpen stuff.

As the last guy in the pen, you could do worse although he's not really a true longman. The Mets hardly need another reliever if they can stay healthy. I think their bullpen is going to be outstanding the rest of the way. Good to great closer, setup men who can go multiple innings in Heilman and Sanchez, Feliciano as a lefty who doesn't embarass himself against righties, Smith as a ROOGY who doesn't embarass himself against lefties, and Schoeneweis as the LOOGY.

The article doesn't say they're trying to trade Pelfrey now.

His Pecota projection was for a .271 EQA

I think that that 271 EQA is "adjusted for all time".

The unadjusted line PECOTA projected for Tatis was 265 .340 .437. The "equivalent" line, ie adjusted, 269 .344 .455.

The point is the same though, rfloh. If Tatis can do .340/.437 the rest of the way, I'm perfectly content with him being the left fielder for now and splitting time with Endy if/when Church returns. I don't think I trust him to do that, but if that's what his projections say, it certainly is heartening. I certainly don't want this team trading Martinez or Niese for a MOR outfielder if they can get passable production from Tatis.

Wow, I am surprised that he projected that well and I doubt that he can hit that well. It's hard to have much confidence in that projection as he'd only had 56 MLB AB in the last 4 years.

He's had over 1000 minor league PAs 2006 to date - so he's been playing

.372/.420 in Ottawa in 2006- league average was .258/.326/.389 and Ottawa was a pitcher's park.
.359/.485 in New Orleans in 2007, league average was .279/.346/.437- BUT relative to the rest of the PCL\l New Orleans is an EXTREME pitcher's park (The PCL is basically split between the old Amer.Assoc. teams it absorbed and the old PCL teams- with unbalanced schedules - so half the league plays in a very high run environment- the other half in a much lower run environment.

So he's been better than league average in AAA (adjusted ops+ of 122 in 2006 and 121 in 2007)
His last significant MLB PT was 2002 and he was terrible then, but his 2006/2007 minor league numbers are more relevant in figuring out where he is now- he's probably where a "normal" aging curve would have brought the 24/25 year old Tatis...

It's risky to count on Church coming back AND a Endy/Tatis platoon being productive, but there doesn't seem to be much out there (Ibanez? Pass). Also, Endy's been hitting the ball well (.330/.370/.378 in his last 111 AB).

Regarding this recent run, Delgado has been the biggest and most pleasant surprise. His re-emergence allows the Mets to skimp offensively at the corner outfield spots, since they're solid (or above-average) everywhere else.

You can't address the Tatis/Endy question until you know some other things. What is Manuel going to do about the catching situation? If Castro is in the line-up a lot, his bat is a lot more potent than Schneider, and maybe you can carry a less powerful hitter in LF. Is Church going to be healthy, and if he is can he sustain the production he was giving the team? If yes, then again . . . . LF doesn't need to be as strong.

A line-up with Schneider, and without Church being consistently productive, won't consistently score enough runs if Tatis/Endy is the LF "answer." Don't be fooled by the recent good times.

The point is the same though, rfloh. If Tatis can do .340/.437 the rest of the way, I'm perfectly content with him being the left fielder for now and splitting time with Endy if/when Church returns. I don't think I trust him to do that, but if that's what his projections say, it certainly is heartening. I certainly don't want this team trading Martinez or Niese for a MOR outfielder if they can get passable production from Tatis.

Oh, I agree. If Tatis can produce a 777 OPS, league average in Shea was 768 in 2007, 749 this year, I have no problem with him.

A line-up with Schneider, and without Church being consistently productive, won't consistently score enough runs if Tatis/Endy is the LF "answer."

As shocking as this may seem, Schneider has an a solid .273/.364/.347 batting line against righties this season. I don't think he's a problem in the lineup against righties. He's only really bad against lefties and he is definitely going to be platooned against them.

Schneider has an a solid .273/.364/.347 batting line against righties this season.

That's not all that "solid." I guess he's avoiding making an ungodly number of outs, so I'll take it and count my blessings, but an OPS that barely bobs above .700 when you have the platoon advantage isn't really very solid.

As to the idea that the Mets might promote from within, by the way, I would be more than shocked if Fernando Martinez is ready to make any positive contribution to the 2008 Mets' cause. He isn't close to ready, and the best hope for all of us is that he gets a few meaningless PAs in a cup of coffee after the pennant race is decided or in a few blow-out games. I certainly don't want him traded, but his place is in the minors being developed, not helping decide this year's NL East race.

That's not all that "solid." I guess he's avoiding making an ungodly number of outs, so I'll take it and count my blessings, but an OPS that barely bobs above .700 when you have the platoon advantage isn't really very solid.

The league average for a catcher is about .325/.390 so I'd say he has been above average against RHP this season when you take into the fact that his OPS is OBP-heavy and he is hitting in Shea.

I'd rather have Castro as the everyday catcher but I can certainly live with this platoon system. The overall production from the platoon should be above average offensively and pretty strong defensively.

Don't be fooled by the recent good times.

A team is never as good as it looks when everything is going well- or as bad as it looks when everything is not...

We can count on 3B/SS/CF being better than league average. If the rest of the lineup is just AVERAGE, we'll have an ok offense- the Mets have got to avoid offensive sinkholes

a 50/50 time share between Schneider and Castro should be about league average
Delgado is at .261/.345/.461 the last 365 days- that's about league average for a 1B

that leaves

2B: NL 2Bs average .267/.333/.411, Met 2Bs have hit: .276/.362/.359- not pretty but not terrible

RF: A healthy Church (career .277/.352/.471) can be counted on to be reasonably productive- but Church cannot be counted on to be healthy- RFs other than Church have been surprisingly productive... (which is a fuke, the same guys playing LF have been bad)

LF: Met LFs have hit .247/.301/.329, league average is .263/.342/.443- that's what I mean by a sinkhole, just about the only Met LFs this year who haven't sucked are, believe it or not, Tatis and Pagan.

In the system, imho, the guy on the farm who is most likely to be able to give the Mets MLB average production if called up is Val Pascucci, but apparently one of Omar's longstanding goals left over from his Expos days is to make sure Val stays in AAA and mounts a challenge to Crash Davis' HR record...

FMARt at 19 is probably as good a hitter as Carlos Gomez at 22- the good news is that means it's likely that FMART will be much better at 22 than Gomez, and he'd better be because Gomez is hitting .253/.287/.351 for Minnesota.
There's a reason 99.9% of professional baseball playing 19 year olds are not in the majors- even stars like Albert Pujols probably were not good enough to help an MLB team at age 19- I'm just worried that Omar & Co are so enamored of the player they think FMART WILL be, that they overlook the teenaged player he is now- throwing an unready 19 year old into a MLB lineup- in New York- in a pennant race??????? Why that'd be a crime.

The player who I hope the Mets make a run at is Adam Dunn. He's in the last year of his contract and seems to be significantly undervalued. He's gotten a bad rap in Cincinnati because they were looking for him to be the main guy and he just doesn't have the disposition for that, but he would be excellent for the Mets who just need him to fit in, hit fifth, walk and hit homers. I know lots of folks at BTF like him a lot, but every article I read states that there isn't a lot of interest in him, so maybe the Mets could get him for less than we expect.

As far as promoting Martinez, that's just silly. He needs to spend the whole year in AA and probably needs to spends most of next year in AAA. And I don't think that the Mets have a need for any kind of pitcher.

A more realistic option than Fernando as a player getting significant playing time is Evans. I have my doubts about him hitting righthanders this season but he it is not like I don't have my doubts about Tatis and Fernando Martinez hitting this season. Evans might not be a stud prospect but a .311/.365/.561 AA batting line is nothing to sneeze at.

As far as promoting Martinez, that's just silly. He needs to spend the whole year in AA and probably needs to spends most of next year in AAA. And I don't think that the Mets have a need for any kind of pitcher.

Isn't AA the new AAA? It seems to me that most good prospects these days get promoted from AA.

At least Schneider has only had 5 AB against lefties since Manuel took over.

Isn't AA the new AAA? It seems to me that most good prospects these days get promoted from AA.

All the talent seems to be in AA.

At least Schneider has only had 5 AB against lefties since Manuel took over.

Is that true? Awesome.