I don't care what you guys say, Mitch Williams is one of the more consistently entertaining talking heads on MLB Tonight. He's a little too intangibles-biased when evaluating players, but if you can get past the fact that he's Mitch Williams, he's pretty insightful about pitching throughout the program and he's not afraid to pull punches when warranted.

I had two thoughts after RTFA - First, I do like his emphasis on the fact that, when closing, you have a lead. It's a good mindset and I'm going to start using it with my players. Second, I can't believe his stats are correct. 65%? Maybe he's leaving out the holds?

There's an MLB Network commercial where Williams and the other ex-players are magically manipulating various things. The thing I don't get is why Mitch is playing around with Veterans Stadium. Is he re-living his glory days? What does a blown-up ballpark have to do with current baseball analysis?

#2, the problem with the blown save stat is if a pitcher gives up a one run lead in the 7th, it's a blown save.

There has been 272 save opportunities. And only 145 saves. That’s 65.23 53 percent. This has to be fixed.

FTFMW :)

First, doesn't Mitch Williams have all the incentive in the world to see being a closer as a rare talent?

Second, he's talking about expanding the zone? Unintentional irony there?

he has it right when he says blown saves and losses will demoralize a team faster than anything. the d backs were scuffling but still at 13 w 12 L when putz gave up a walkoff homer for his 3rd blown save in a short pan. the team is 9 and 17 starting from that game.

all of a sudden they started playing tight and it was clearly that moment they lost confidence

Closers are overrated.................until you dont have one.

Closers are overrated.................until you dont have one.

But your example is from a team that does have a closer?

i continue to maintain that the critical tactical aptitude that a manager must have to succeed is bullpen management. a guy who cannot manage is bullpen to be effective over the bulk of the season will fail.

intentional walk propensity, bunting, bench usage, all that stuff are gnats flying around the head. annoying but you can live with it.

bullpen management is water. gotta have it

First, allow me to agree with Post #1. I too enjoy watching Mitch Williams on MLB Tonight, finding him to be both knowledgeable and entertaining.

Second, the excerpt (in my humble opinion) really doesn't do full justice to what Williams is saying. Quoting from TFA:

His [David Robertson's] interview after Mo got hurt told me all I needed to know before he ever threw a pitch in the closer role. He said,”I’m not going to be Mo, but I will try my best.” What he didn’t understand was that he has been doing the harder job for years as a setup man.

If I'm understanding Williams correctly, his point isn't that closers are the best-of-the-best of the men coming out of the pen as far as talent goes; but rather that successful closers are those that understand the special dynamic that exists in save situations, and adjust accordingly. Also, allow me to say that it's indeed a breath of fresh air to hear a former MLB closer state unequivocally that it's the setup man, and not the closer, who has the more difficult job coming out of the pen.

DB

Also, allow me to say that it's indeed a breath of fresh air to hear a former MLB closer state unequivocally that it's the setup man, and not the closer, who has the more difficult job coming out of the pen.

But then he uses an example which immediately contradicts himself. He says pitching in the 8th can be tougher because hitters are more selective than they are in the 9th, but then brings up Robertson and says his brief foray into closing wasn't successful because he nibbled and didn't attack the zone.

Mitch Williams took the Abstract Expressionist approach to the art of closing.

The Salvador Dali of closers

Closers are overrated.................until you dont have one.

The problem is that good relief pitching performance is VERY valuable, particularly if you don't have a very talented starting pitching staff or a low scoring offense. No one can (or would) dispute that. The issue is that relief pitching performance is very volatile.... so although everyone would agree that it's important, that does not mean you can identify who will be very good and who won't be very good in a given year on the basis of even what seems to be a large amount of data. Therefore, choosing a single person to be the "closer" is a bit of a crap shoot.

I agree with the Notorious H.W.B. : managing the ups and downs of the bullpen is probably the most important trait of a manager. When I think about the successful managers over the years: Cox, LaRussa, Leyland, Maddon -- the one constant across all of them is that they have very good reputations for managing their bullpens and getting a lot of mileage out of their relievers. Joe Torre was obviously successful, but how hard is it to manage a bullpen when you just need to pick up the phone and dial "42". :-)

i continue to maintain that the critical tactical aptitude that a manager must have to succeed is bullpen management. a guy who cannot manage is bullpen to be effective over the bulk of the season will fail.

intentional walk propensity, bunting, bench usage, all that stuff are gnats flying around the head. annoying but you can live with it.

bullpen management is water. gotta have it

Could not agree more, and I would've said something similar had Harvey not said it far more eloquently than I could.

And then you have Dusty Baker.

i continue to maintain that the critical tactical aptitude that a manager must have to succeed is bullpen management. a guy who cannot manage is bullpen to be effective over the bulk of the season will fail.

intentional walk propensity, bunting, bench usage, all that stuff are gnats flying around the head. annoying but you can live with it.

bullpen management is water. gotta have it

Ahhh, Ned Yost.

walks

indeed

It's amazing how quickly the Yankees have gotten over losing Mo. If anything proves the overratedness of the closer more, I don't know what it is. Hell, they lost David Robertson to boot, and yet haven't really had it affect them at all. Rapada, Wade, Logan, and Soriano have been more than cromulent.

The wild-haired southpaw sighed as he ambled toward the mound. He crossed over the faux-green artificial turf onto the coffee-brown dirt of the pitching mound, like crossing over from the surreal to reality. Growing up among the tall pines of rural Oregon, Mitch never thought the biggest pitch of his life would take place in Toronto, Canada. As a boy, he hadn't even considered the possibility that Canadians even played baseball. They seemed exotic, playing sports like hockey of course, but they also seemed European, probably playing sports like handball, rugby, and cricket.

Mitch peered towards his crouching catcher, Darren Daulton for a sign. He feared Darren was starting to crack under the pressure of the World Series. He had caught him in the hotel lobby babbling about aliens, visions, and the end of times. Mitch missed the catcher he grew up with, his old buddy Mike Schwartz. Schwartz understood the importance of closing. It was Schwartz that Mitch felt comfortable sharing his favorite book, "The Art of Closing" written by Hall of Fame closer Ducky Quackenberry. Quackenberry's lessons were lost on the modern crowds. Everyone underplayed the importance of the closer these days. Teams would sent out anyone with a 95 mile-per-hour-fastball and a wad of chew in his craw. They didn't understand what Mitch and Ducky knew - that working the ninth was indeed work. It required a surgeon's touch and a mobster's intimidation. Few could grasp the former. Even fewer could grasp the latter.

216. The hardest strike to throw is strike one.

Joe Torre was obviously successful, but how hard is it to manage a bullpen when you just need to pick up the phone and dial "42". :-)

Where Joe deserves some credit was in his willingness to use Mo for 2 innings, especially in the post season. He knew he had a gun, and he was not afraid to use it.

[2] I can't believe his stats are correct. 65%? Maybe he's leaving out the holds?

His data seem totally wrong and also seem to erroneously leave out the holds. Also, the blended result for save opportunities should be segmented by the inning the reliever entered, in order to distinguish middle relievers from the typical 9th inning closer.

Using B-R PI pitching game finder "For 2012 ... Save Opportunity" and "For 2012 ... Recorded a Hold", I get the following results:

 INNING ENTER BL BS BW  SV HOLDS  (SV+H)/(SV+H+BS)
          4-6  9  7  2   0    96     84%
            7 12 32  3   8   257     85%
            8 13 34  7  14   366     88%
            9 29 22  8 347    12     86%
       EXTRAS  6  0  1  23     0     77%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
        TOTAL 69 95 21 392   731     86%

If this data and methodology are right, it seems to say that middle relievers and closers are both protecting leads through 9 innings at roughly the same rate, in the 84-88% range. One can argue that the stress builds towards the end of the game as the expectation of winning for any given size lead increases, but managers seem to be pretty good at assigning relievers to roles.

2012 Team & League Relief Pitching

   Tm BSv  SV Hold (SV+H)/(SV+H+BS)
  NYY   2  13   21 94%
  PIT   3  16   33 94%
  CLE   4  19   30 92%
  TBR   4  18   26 92%
  MIN   3  10   21 91%
  KCR   5  12   32 90%
 
  CIN   4  14   20 89%
  SFG   5  16   25 89%
  HOU   4  12   20 89%
  WSN   6  17   30 89%
  TEX   4  13   18 89%
  BOS   7  15   34 88%
 
  ATL   6  18   23 87%
  BAL   6  20   21 87%
  DET   6  11   27 86%
  MIL   5  11   20 86%
LgAvg   6  13   24 86%
  LAD   8  14   34 86%
  PHI   7  14   27 85%
 
  MIA   9  14   35 84%
  OAK   6  12   18 83%
  LAA   7   9   25 83%
  SDP   6   9   20 83%
  NYM  10  16   31 82%
  CHW   7  11   20 82%
 
  TOR   8   9   25 81%
  ARI   9  14   23 80%
  STL   8   8   24 80%
  SEA   7  10   15 78%
  CHC   8   7   16 74%
  COL  11  10   17 71%

   Tm BSv  SV Hold (SV+H)/(SV+H+BS)
Total 185 392  731 86%

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2012-reliever-pitching.shtml