BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Mitchell: Cano, Pedroia and MVP Second Basemen

Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, August 27, 2010

Mitchell: Cano, Pedroia and MVP Second Basemen

(In deep husky psyllium husked voice) “Harrumphnagle! It’s the damn Lazy Show compared to the Laser Show, if you ask me!”

Cano’s 2010 fits into no such narrative. The story of Cano in 2010 is six foot tall second baseman slugs the ball well all season, while playing excellent defense as well. Cano is not a scrappy heart and soul kind of guy who puts up good numbers with little power. He is a slugger who happens to play a pretty good second base. Thus far, the numbers suggest that Cano in 2010 has been a better fielder than Pedroia was in 2008. Cano’s range factor per nine innings is 5.22 this year, significantly better than Pedroia’s 4.75 in 2008. Cano is also 4 total fielding runs above average thus far in 2010, one better than Pedroia’s total in 2003. This will also be hard for voters to recognize, as the belief that big slugging middle infielders are not as good fielders as smaller guys with less power is well accepted.

There is some precedent for slugging second baseman to win the MVP award, most recently Jeff Kent in 2000. Joe Morgan also won back to back MVP awards in 1975 and 1976, but Morgan in those years was a truly extraordinary player who, in addition to hitting for power, was a great base stealer and defender, so was difficult to characterize as simply a slugger.

Cano and Pedroia are both 26 years old and among the best second baseman in the game. The rivalry between the two players could energize the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry for years to come. It is likely that fans of both teams believe they have the best player. This is supported by the narrative, but the numbers suggest that Cano has become the better player. It will be interesting to see if the awards voters reflect this.

Repoz Posted: August 27, 2010 at 12:07 PM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: awards, projections, red sox, sabermetrics, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 27, 2010 at 12:48 PM (#3627141)

Not going there.

2. villageidiom Posted: August 27, 2010 at 01:08 PM (#3627161)

I would say the guy without the broken foot is helping his team more than the guy with the broken foot is helping his.

3. Dale Sams Posted: August 27, 2010 at 01:11 PM (#3627163)

Oh Robbie, don't you know... Hamilton is going to win?

4. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 27, 2010 at 01:18 PM (#3627172)

If my two choices for MVP were Robinson Cano in 2010 or Dustin Pedroia in 2008, I'd pick Cano in 2010. I'm not sure that's how it works though.

5. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 27, 2010 at 01:22 PM (#3627174)

Hamilton is going to win

Unless Johnny Damon ignites a huge Tigers' comeback in the Central. Then Cabrera will win.

6. AROM Posted: August 27, 2010 at 01:42 PM (#3627191)

Cano is also 4 total fielding runs above average thus far in 2010, one better than Pedroia’s total in 2003.

What does his college sophomore FRAA have to do with anything?

7. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: August 27, 2010 at 01:54 PM (#3627200)

Another "Batman v Superman" thread. Both guys are players you can build around. Who cares to what degree one may be better than the other? I'd be happy with Cano on the Red Sox. I'm happy with Pedroia on the Red Sox. Sheesh.

8. hokieneer Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:09 PM (#3627211)

If my two choices for MVP were Robinson Cano in 2010 or Dustin Pedroia in 2008, I'd pick Cano in 2010. I'm not sure that's how it works though.

Exactly, but you can't use comparisons to past MVP as a criteria for winning this year MVP. Seems to me that's what the author is trying to, well trying to do with defense. "Hey Cano is as good of a fielder as Pedroia was in 2008 when he won MVP, so Cano should win MVP in 2010".

Besides has Cano really been that good of a defender this year by any advanced metric?

9. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:09 PM (#3627212)

It's the new Nomar vs. Jeter!

10. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:18 PM (#3627222)

I remember at the beginning of the season when we had the big Pedroia v. Cano thread that there was some doubt that either player was going to develop further. Both added power this year, and with Utley showing signs of mortality, it looks like these guys will be competing for best 2nd baseman in the Majors over the next few years instead of best in second baseman in the rivalry. I think it's awesome that these two have turned into such great players and I'm not sure why some people are weary of the debate.

Cano is .6 WAR short of Pedroia's 08 in Fangraphs WAR. I will not be satisfied until he eclipses that season in both metric, and I think he's likely to do that with more than a month left in the season.

Besides has Cano really been that good of a defender this year by any advanced metric?

DRS has him +13, UZR + 3.6, and TZ + 3.

11. YR Denies Jesus Montero Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:26 PM (#3627234)

Sorry, but it must be posted:

I guess I should have nominated Cano in the most overrated prospect thread the other day. That he still gets talked up as some kind of top prospect (not pointing at John here, by the way) amazes me.

I’ve seen Cano play a lot, and I’m not even sure he’d be a productive Triple-A player. Let’s start with his defense; it’s brutal. He has terrible footwork and simply lacks any kind of instincts around the bag. There’s no way you want him playing up the middle. He might have the raw speed to not be awful in left field, but that’s about as kind as I can be regarding his glovework. Offensively, he’s a fastball hitter. He sits dead red on every pitch and waits for a mistake. Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front. He’s mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall. To add insult to injury, he’s also a terrible baserunner.

In his prime, I think he could hit .280/.320/.400 while playing awful defense. Yipee.

YIPEE!

12. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:30 PM (#3627242)

I think it's awesome that these two have turned into such great players and I'm not sure why some people are weary of the debate.

The answer to part two of your sentence is in part one of your sentence. Do you think FO's agonize over either team having the other player rather than the one they have? I doubt they do. I bet they focus their attentions on filling whatever holes their team may have. I bet they're comfortable with their 2B situation, and are looking at the farm system for the next guy that may have value their for them, in case they decide they don't want to pay their current guy when the time comes.

13. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:32 PM (#3627247)

Sorry, but it must be posted:

YR, you already have one wearisome bit of schtick. You don't need to borrow dzop's.

14. ekogan Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:44 PM (#3627276)

I guess I should have nominated Cano in the most overrated prospect thread the other day. That he still gets talked up as some kind of top prospect (not pointing at John here, by the way) amazes me.

The source for this quote is Dave Cameron's comment in 2005 John Sickels' 20 Top Yankees Prospects comment thread. But if you want to use this as proof that Dave Cameron is an idiot, here's what Sickels wrote then:

7. Robinson Cano, 2B, B-
...
A weak system. [...] The Yankees have one guy who looks like a potential star in Eric Duncan. [...] The big batch of B-/C+ guys are all very similar in the sense that they have something going for them but also have significant questionmarks of one kind or another in their profile.
...
cano
He has one really good half-season under his belt. His other numbers are pretty mediocre. There are also serious questions about his defense, which have hurt his trade value.

Prospecting is hard.

15. YR Denies Jesus Montero Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:45 PM (#3627279)

YR, you already have one wearisome bit of schtick. You don't need to borrow dzop's.

Shut you mouth call schtick wearisome!

16. ekogan Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:46 PM (#3627282)

Another "Batman v Superman" thread.

Which one is Batman?

17. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 27, 2010 at 03:00 PM (#3627310)

Do you think FO's agonize over either team having the other player rather than the one they have?

No, but that's hardly the point of the debate. It's always fun when there's a player your team developed is competing for the best at his position honor. But when he's primarily competing against a guy who plays for your rival, that's just cool. I enjoy the constant debate, and while it probably only makes sense to have it once or twice a year at this point, I think its still a lot of fun. It's especially interesting to me because two years ago it looked like Pedroia had it locked down, but Cano has stormed back from his '08 to make it close again. I would guess there isn't a whole lot of projection difference between the two, so seeing who eventually turns out better is something to look forward to for years and adds a nice little position specific competition to the rivalry.

18. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: August 27, 2010 at 03:06 PM (#3627322)

Pedroia's injury is especially disappointing because he was having his best season.

19. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: August 27, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3627336)

I never thought Pedroia had it "locked down" (I know you didn't say I did, I'm just saying). Cano has a great swing. It's great. It's obvious that he's a great hitter and will be a great hitter for years to come.

I don't enjoy the debate. I don't care to what slim degree whichever one is better than the other now, and I don't care to wonder when either will decline, and who will decline first, who will decline more rapidly, etc etc. It's tedious. It will play out and become evident soon enough. Until then, I enjoy watching both of them play.

20. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 27, 2010 at 03:10 PM (#3627339)

Which one is Batman?

The toolsy one.

21. Randy Jones

Posted: August 27, 2010 at 03:17 PM (#3627361)

here's what Sickels wrote then:
...
Prospecting is hard.

Only going to say one thing on this, then drop it. The difference is that after 2005 or 2006, when Cano had shown that he was a pretty good player, Sickels basically said "Yeah, I missed that one." Cameron continued to insist he was right and Cano was terrible, just a fluke season, etc.

22. YR Denies Jesus Montero Posted: August 27, 2010 at 03:23 PM (#3627378)

Only going to say one thing on this, then drop it. The difference is that after 2005 or 2006, when Cano had shown that he was a pretty good player, Sickels basically said "Yeah, I missed that one." Cameron continued to insist he was right and Cano was terrible, just a fluke season, etc.

This. Plus the tone of the two pieces is widely dissimilar. Obviously prospecting is hard, which is why a little humility in your forecasts and recognition of your limitations and blunders should be de rigueur.

23. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: August 27, 2010 at 06:04 PM (#3627676)

The part no one seems to remember is the two players that Cameron did nominate in that most overrated prospect thread to which he refers.

24. Cyril Morong Posted: August 27, 2010 at 06:08 PM (#3627684)

Just in case anyone is interested, I wrote a post at my blog called MVP Awards And Award Shares By Position. 2B men have not done well, although that may not be a surprise.

25. Cyril Morong Posted: August 27, 2010 at 06:10 PM (#3627690)

Just in case anyone is interested, I wrote a post at my blog called MVP Awards And Award Shares By Position. 2B men have not done well, although that may not be a surprise.

26. RJ in TO Posted: August 27, 2010 at 06:24 PM (#3627726)

The part no one seems to remember is the two players that Cameron did nominate in that most overrated prospect thread to which he refers.

To be fair, Ryan Howard is overrated (while still being a very good player).

27. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 27, 2010 at 06:39 PM (#3627763)

I don't enjoy the debate. I don't care to what slim degree whichever one is better than the other now, and I don't care to wonder when either will decline, and who will decline first, who will decline more rapidly, etc etc. It's tedious. It will play out and become evident soon enough. Until then, I enjoy watching both of them play.

To each his own. I don't like Pedroia, I don't like watching him play, and I actively root for him to play poorly. IMO, we might as well not discuss which team is better and more likely to make the playoffs each year if we're not going to compare players. Everything in the sport will eventually play out, but it's less fun (for me at least) to sit by quietly and wait for it all to happen.

28. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 27, 2010 at 07:32 PM (#3627858)

Regarding 23

Loney
The Loney-is-overrated bandwagon is out of control. There's very little that he can't do, when healthy. At this point, his continued wrist problems are a question, but looking at his minor league numbers and deciding that he doesn't have talent is just bad analysis...
I'll go with Ryan Howard and Huston Street as the two most overrated prospects.

Underrated would be Ambiorex Burgos...
by david cameron on Feb 17, 2005 12:31 PM EST

Ouch, ouch, ouch, ouch
is that a 4/4? he missed on all 4.

29. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 27, 2010 at 07:34 PM (#3627860)

More Cameron:

How do you know (that Loney is a good hitter)?

Scouting. I've watched him hit pretty extensively, and wrote up my thoughts at Prospectus last spring. On a mechanical basis, there's almost nothing wrong with his swing. He has terrific bat speed, good plate coverage, solid understanding of the strike zone, developing power, and an ability to drive the ball to all fields.

Obviously, his 2003 performance didn't show that, and as I mentioned in my first post, injuries are a concern. But prospect analysis is not simply evaluating past performance and ranking by numbers; we're trying to find out who is the best bet going forward, and skills not reflected in performance still count.

Obviously, I'm not arguing that Loney's 2003 performance doesn't matter. I was as disappointed by it as anyone, though the injuries are a pretty clear mitigating factor. I just feel like a pretty big part of the analysis of James Loney's talent is being overlooked in the rush to evaluate him by his 2003 performance. And, well, that's not good analysis.

by david cameron on Feb 17, 2005 2:15 PM EST

30. Toolsy McClutch Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:24 PM (#3627951)

I don't enjoy the debate. I don't care to what slim degree whichever one is better than the other now, and I don't care to wonder when either will decline, and who will decline first, who will decline more rapidly, etc etc. It's tedious.

Then what the hell are you doing in this thread? I don't root for the Yanks or Sox, but I still think this is a topic that can be mined. Clearly, there are smart people on both sides with points and the discussion can be worthwhile.

For me, I said early on that Cano doing it at the major league level gave him a huge leg up in my mind. When DP came up and hit better than I thought he would, I basically ate my words. Now, I'm not so sure. To me, that's fun stuff.

31. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:36 PM (#3627969)

Which one is Batman?

Pedroia is Bat-Mite. Or Ratman, if we're going by facial features. And now, please give it up for Jeffrey Ross.

32. fhomess Posted: August 27, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3628013)

I really think Pedroia is going to have a more difficult career as he ages. He doesn't have the size to keep hitting the way he has when his reactions slow down, and he's stocky enough that he's going to lose the flexibility to play defense as well as he has. Cano will lose the defense as he ages, too, but he'll have the size and bat to move to another position and be useful there. His arm would probably make him more suited for 3B.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Friday, August 27, 2010

Mitchell: Cano, Pedroia and MVP Second Basemen

Reader Comments and Retorts

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics