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Monday, June 11, 2012

Mitchell: Carlos Beltran and The 300/300 Club

Didn’t our own Jason Lundquist pull this off once?

That power and speed combination has Beltran one stolen base away from becoming just the 8th member in the history of the game of the 300/300 (homeruns and stolen bases) club. Current hall-of-famers Willie Mays and Andre Dawson are on the list as are future hall-0f-famers Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. Bobby Bonds, Steve Finley, and Reggie Sanders round out the group.

The newly retired Mike Cameron was very close to joining this club as he finished his career with 278 homeruns and 297 stolen bases. And at one point, Alfonso Soriano looked to have a legitimate shot at one day joining this club. He already has enough homeruns with 352 and his 265 stolen bases are not so far off that one would think he cannot join this club. But, at the age of 36, it is looking less and less likely he joins the club. He has one stolen base this season and only 17 over the past four seasons (including 2012).

Hall-of-Famer Rickey Henderson just missed joining this club as he finished his career with 297 homeruns but his 1406 stolen bases and being the sole member of the 1000 stolen base club is far more prestigious. Fellow hall-of-famer Ryne Sandberg missed joining this club by 18 homeruns as did former All-Star Eric Davis. Future hall-of-famer Craig Biggio missed by a mere nine homeruns.

...Any day now Beltran will reach that 300th stolen base and he will join an exclusive club. But, unlike Reggie Sanders, Bobby Bonds, and Steve Finley, the 300/300 club will not be the highest achievement of Beltran’s career and it may simply be one of the milestones that is etched into a plaque that will be hung from the walls of the Cooperstown Hall of Fame.

Repoz Posted: June 11, 2012 at 04:23 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, history

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   1. Randy Jones Posted: June 11, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4154071)
Abreu only needs 15 HR to make it.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 11, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4154106)
Abreu is mentioned.

Don Baylor only needs 15 SB to make it.
   3. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: June 11, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4154109)
Abreu only needs 15 HR to make it.

Don Baylor only needs 15 SB to make it.
These are equally likely, I suspect.
   4. Srul Itza At Home Posted: June 11, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4154121)
future hall-0f-famers Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez


Future Hall of Meriters, maybe, but no way the sainted BBWAA is letting these cheatin' roiders in to the Hall of Fame. I don't think the Veterans Committee feels any different.
   5. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 11, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4154137)
He said hall-0f-famers not hall-of-famers. That zero instead of an o makes all the difference.
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: June 11, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4154138)
Future Hall of Meriters, maybe, but no way the sainted BBWAA is letting these cheatin' roiders in to the Hall of Fame. I don't think the Veterans Committee feels any differen


I'm on the boat that I think it will happen eventually. I think the writers will end up putting Bonds in.

Current hall-of-famers Willie Mays and Andre Dawson are on the list as are future hall-0f-famers Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. Bobby Bonds, Steve Finley, and Reggie Sanders round out the group.


I always liked this list, even when Finley and Sanders joined it. It was more fun when it was "only Bonds on that list isn't in the hof"(before his son came along) but it's still one of my favorite career accomplishment lists.
   7. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: June 11, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4154143)
Babe Ruth's still the only guy in the 700/90 Club.
   8. booond Posted: June 11, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4154147)
Rickey could still get the 3 dingers.
   9. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 11, 2012 at 06:42 PM (#4154189)
[7] ? Aaron has 240 SB; Bonds has 514. Are you referring to sacrifice hits with the 90?
   10. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: June 11, 2012 at 06:58 PM (#4154198)
The Babe was a career 94-46 on the bump.
   11. base ball chick Posted: June 11, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4154257)
carlos beltran is andre dawson only better

   12. McCoy Posted: June 11, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4154267)
Alfonso Soriano is avail. . . .I mean Alfonso is 35 steals short of getting to 300. So he's probably about 100 years away from getting there. It could be a little sooner but I'm not fully up to speed on the advances of robotic knees.
   13. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 11, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4154321)
Since everything on this site is about race recently, I note that Steve Finley sorta stands out on this list, including the honorable mentions, for his lack of pigment.

Biggio was 9 HR away, Sandberg missed it by 18 HR, but as far as I can tell, no other white guys have been particularly close to 300/300.
   14. shoewizard Posted: June 11, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4154339)
I guess I didn't realize Soriano had that many HR. 10 years straight over 20 HR, soon to be 11. Pretty decent chance to get to 400

   15. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: June 11, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4154347)
I don't think the Veterans Committee feels any different.


What difference does it make how the current Veterans' Committee feels? They change it every three years anyway.
   16. McCoy Posted: June 11, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4154368)
Young players who have a shot at it:
Matt Kemp-though his hamstrings are acting up.
Hanley Ramirez


And that is about it.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: June 11, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4154370)
carlos beltran is andre dawson only better

Hmmm ... with less knee damage I think.

It is close and probably depends on how you like your offense cooked

Dawson 22-28 (the CF years): 288/332/493, 127 OPS+, 208/62 SB, 4 GG, 40 WAR, 27 WAA, +76 Rfield
Beltran 22-28: 282/351/480, 111 OPS+, 206/29 SB (amazing), 0 GG, 30 WAR, 17 WAA, +32 Rfield

Really, it's not particularly close.

From 29 on, Dawson was just a bit above-average adding 21 WAR in 6300 PA. Beltran has tagged on 31 WAR in just 3400 PA. He became a MUCH better hitter at age 29 and was able to stay in CF longer.

There's no particular reason to prefer an early peak to a late one but in this particular case, Dawson was a god early in his career but the knees started to go after all that astroturf. From 29-36 he was a pretty similar hitter (122 OPS+, basically just take 10 points off all around) but was just 1 win above average per season because he'd gone from an elite defensive CF to an average defensive RF. That's about 12 wins right there.

But everybody (except some GG voters) recognized him as elite young and everybody (except some GG voters) knew he'd lost a lot later and everybody (except those demanding "evidence") agrees it was the turf. So, in questions of "better", in this case I'll take the early peak as evidence that Dawson was better than Beltran but just got his knees screwed up.

Beltran vs. Edmonds is an interesting one.

On that Rfield -- ages 22 to 28, some cherry-picking but also an attempt to get a comparable group, 80%+ games in CF:

Andruw 145
Blair 122
White 83
Dawson 76
Griffey 73
Cameron 72

The young Andruw is not a bad comp for Dawson either.

In total WAR, Mantle, Speaker, Mays and Griffey (and Cobb presumably) are off on their own (50+ WAR and Griffey is borderline); then a group of Snider, DiMaggio, Andruw and Dawson (around 40 WAR); then a group of Ashburn, Lemon, Pinson, Wynn, Cedeno, Lynn, Beltran (low 30s). Other than the mystery of how the BBWAA is going to treat Andruw (I suspect not well), that's a pretty clear in/out HoF line.

There aren't that many who play 80% in CF from ages 29-36 (Beltran seems to have just missed it) and Butler and Lofton are #6 and #7 on that list. Beltran would be #8.
   18. God Posted: June 12, 2012 at 08:32 AM (#4154471)
Since everything on this site is about race recently, I note that Steve Finley sorta stands out on this list, including the honorable mentions, for his lack of pigment.

Biggio was 9 HR away, Sandberg missed it by 18 HR, but as far as I can tell, no other white guys have been particularly close to 300/300.


The manager of the Diamondbacks is sitting at 255/284 and some days looks like he might be desperate enough to activate himself.

Young players who have a shot at it:
Matt Kemp-though his hamstrings are acting up.
Hanley Ramirez
And that is about it.


McCutchen perhaps? And we don't know exactly what kind of power Trout is going to show yet.
   19. formerly dp Posted: June 12, 2012 at 09:18 AM (#4154483)
McCutchen perhaps? And we don't know exactly what kind of power Trout is going to show yet.

Wright has stopped stealing at a high percentage, but he's currently at 191/157 (age 29), so he'll probably fall about 60 or 70 steals short, and given the power dropoff, isn't a lock for 300 HR. Justin Upton is at 96/70 (24), but like Wright, probably won't steal as much as he ages.

I don't think McCutchen will hit 300 HRs, unless he plays until he's 40 or 50. Hanley's closer than I thought, forgot how much he ran when he was younger.
   20. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: June 12, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4154487)
Finley had 48 HRs through his age-30 season (6 full seasons and two half-seasons). In his 30s, he had 8 20-HR seasons, four of those times clearing 30.
   21. Blubaldo Jimenez (OMJ) Posted: June 12, 2012 at 09:27 AM (#4154489)
Wright, Lawrie, and Harper are white guys that at least have an outside chance. Though I would bet that they will end up more in the 250/250 club.
   22. BDC Posted: June 12, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4154493)
Hmmn, Ian Kinsler is at 131/144 now, and turns 30 next week. He's reached 30/30 twice, but he got a late and not particularly fast start towards 300/300.
   23. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 12, 2012 at 09:36 AM (#4154498)
Since everything on this site is about race recently, I note that Steve Finley sorta stands out on this list, including the honorable mentions, for his lack of pigment.


You don't steal your way out of the suburbs.
   24. Randy Jones Posted: June 12, 2012 at 09:50 AM (#4154508)
In total WAR, Mantle, Speaker, Mays and Griffey (and Cobb presumably) are off on their own (50+ WAR and Griffey is borderline); then a group of Snider, DiMaggio, Andruw and Dawson (around 40 WAR);


What WAR numbers are you using for this? Griffey is no where near that top group and DiMaggio is way ahead of that second group(about even with Griffey), even if you don't give him any war credit.
   25. formerly dp Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:17 AM (#4154528)
Wright, Lawrie, and Harper are white guys that at least have an outside chance. Though I would bet that they will end up more in the 250/250 club.

Putting the last two in the same sentence with the first seems problematic, seeing as they're not yet at 20/20 between them.

Also, Lawrie is white? Always imagined him as a black dude given his background. Could someone link to a picture?
   26. Dangerous Dean Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4154536)
You don't steal your way out of the suburbs.


This made me laugh
   27. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4154540)
Also, Lawrie is white? Always imagined him as a black dude given his background. Could someone link to a picture?
He's pretty white.
   28. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4154542)
Also, Lawrie is white? Always imagined him as a black dude given his background. Could someone link to a picture?

Given what aspect of his background? Growing up in an exurb of Vancouver? Having a sister who is a star softball pitcher? Being famous for fraternity-style beer-drinking antics?
   29. McCoy Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4154547)
Well, besides all that he sounds pretty black.
   30. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4154553)
Also, of the 18 people named "Brett" in major-league history, either 17 or 18 have been white, based on an exhaustive Google Image Search. Brett Merriman looks ambiguous and I've never heard of him, so let's say 97%.
   31. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:51 AM (#4154559)
Being famous for fraternity-style beer-drinking antics?


As opposed to gangsta-style malt liquor drinking antics.
   32. formerly dp Posted: June 12, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4154565)
He's pretty white.


No way a dude built like that makes 300/300. Thanks for clearing that up though...
   33. PreservedFish Posted: June 12, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4154575)
Guys, guys, Edward Fortyhands is a drinking game played by white guys, using malt liquor. I think we should give Bretts Lawrie and Merriman some credit for trying to foster understanding between races.
   34. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 12, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4154579)
Even in the canonical photographs Lawrie appears to be drinking Mickey's, probably the whitest brand of malt liquor on the market.
   35. formerly dp Posted: June 12, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4154583)
Even in the canonical photographs Lawrie appears to be drinking Mickey's, probably the whitest brand of malt liquor on the market.

Where's the Admiral when you need him?
   36. alilisd Posted: June 12, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4154632)
Young players who have a shot at it:
Matt Kemp-though his hamstrings are acting up.
Hanley Ramirez


And that is about it.


Yep, though I'm keeping an eye on Justing Upton becasue he's so young and had such an early start. Hard to say at this point if he'll steal enough bases.
   37. alilisd Posted: June 12, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4154637)
Hmmn, Ian Kinsler is at 131/144 now, and turns 30 next week.


Guys like Kinsler and Wright are extreme longshots for this stat combo. I've been looking at this for a long time also and if you're not very, very close to the steals by the time you're 30, you're not likely to make it. You really seem to need bot be about 250 or thereabouts to make it. Guys just tend to stop running in their 30's. Beltran and Abreu are more the exceptions and guys like Soriano and Vlad Guerrero are more the rule. Yes, Vlad used to be a guy who looked like he might end up with this combo. 166 SB through age 31 and 15 in the next 5 seasons after turning 32.
   38. booond Posted: June 12, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4154753)
The Uptons will get there as a family - BJ with steals, Justin with dingers - though BJ may be the better bet as a single.
   39. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 12, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4154758)
Trout's speed is just incredible. Barring injury the /300 should be very easy for him. And given that he's got good power and is only 20, barring injury or sudden change of offensive environment, the 300/ isn't hard to imagine.
   40. formerly dp Posted: June 12, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4154782)
The Uptons will get there as a family - BJ with steals, Justin with dingers - though BJ may be the better bet as a single.

BJ was my first thought before checking Justin, and I agree that he's probably more likely, but only because a late-career power surge on his part is more probable than Justin stealing 20 bases for the next 10 seasons, as alilsd points out in #37. That said, Melvin Emanuel's already 27 and has yet to crack the 100 HR mark, and doesn't have a clear trend of increasing his HR rate substantially.
   41. booond Posted: June 12, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4154791)
That said, Melvin Emanuel's already 27 and has yet to crack the 100 HR mark, and doesn't have a clear trend of increasing his HR rate substantially.


His 20-per isn't going to cut it without a few 25-30 years tossed in.
   42. Gotham Dave Posted: June 12, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4154840)
My first thought was to check Granderson, but I was rather surprised to find that he only has 107 SB so far. He's not a lock for 300 HR either, for that matter, but that's "pretty likely" instead of "literally impossible" like 300 SB is for him.
   43. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: June 12, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4154871)
Ryan Braun has 176/107 and he's stolen 44 bases in 2011-12
   44. booond Posted: June 12, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4154905)
Ryan Braun has 176/107 and he's stolen 44 bases in 2011-12


He's not going to make it. He's almost the opposite of BJ Upton but homers are easier to get as a player ages and steals are not. My guess is he falls 25-50 short.
   45. formerly dp Posted: June 12, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4154920)
He's not going to make it. He's almost the opposite of BJ Upton but homers are easier to get as a player ages and steals are not. My guess is he falls 25-50 short.


I'm inclined to agree, except that Braun actually seems to trending the right way-- running more instead of less as he gets older.

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