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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

MLB.Com: Gio Deal Turns Fortune of Nat’s, A’s

t’s rare, but once in a long, long while, everybody does in fact win.

The A’s radically remade their pitching staff with three major trades over the winter, leading to multiple appearances of the word “rebuilding” in descriptions of Billy Beane’s offseason. The Nationals were happy to take advantage, shipping four prospects to Oakland in order to add high-upside but sometimes erratic lefty Gio Gonzalez.

About 8 1/2 months later, it’s quite clear that neither side should have any regrets. The Athletics’ makeover bore fruit much sooner than expected, as the pieces they received in the three deals have helped propel Oakland into surprise Wild Card contention. And the Nats? They have the National League’s best record, thanks in large part to a breakthrough season by Gonzalez.

In fact, Gonzalez has emerged as a contender for the title of the Nationals’ best starting pitcher, and not just in the non-Stephen Strasburg division. And if you’re the best pitcher on the Nats this year, you’re in the running for best pitcher in the league. Cy Young Award talk is starting to build for Gonzalez, who ranks in the top 10 in the NL in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and wins.

“He’s been unbelievable all year long,” said Washington shortstop Ian Desmond. “He’s consistent. I think that’s one of the most important things for the Cy Young. You’ve got to be able to give your team a chance to win. He’s done that and beyond. He’s nasty. I wouldn’t want to face him. I’d give him the Cy Young right now.”

BourbonSamurai Is a Lazy Nogoodnik Posted: September 12, 2012 at 01:06 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, nationals

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   1. Willie Mayspedes Posted: September 12, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4234176)
Smells like a WAR battle to me (I'm including the Cahill trade too to make it more even)

Player WAR
Gio 4.9
Cahill 2.6
Breslow 0.7

Total out: 8.2

Norris 0.2
Milone 2.3
Parker 3.1
Cook 0.9
Cowgill 0.3

Total in: 6.8

Verdict: A's lost (this year only)
   2. DCA Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4234197)
(I'm including the Cahill trade too to make it more even)

If you're going to do that, why not include the Reddick/Bailey and the crap to Colorado for Seth Smith deals as well?
   3. JJ1986 Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:12 PM (#4234199)
Yoenis adds 1.4 WAR which makes it exactly even if you count the money saved as going to him.
   4. Willie Mayspedes Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:12 PM (#4234200)
#2 Ya I guess so. I was going more for trading away the aces rather than trading away not such important pieces.

Per Cot's

Saved
Cahill $3.5 million
Gio $3.25 million

Paid
Coco Crisp $6 million 2.3 WAR which gets the A's to 9.1 WAR

EDIT: Or what #3 said
   5. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4234208)
Cy Young Award talk is starting to build for Gonzalez, who ranks in the top 10 in the NL in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and wins.


At first I thought this was wrong, but -- if Gonzalez, Cueto, Kershaw, Dickey, and Lohse throw an equal number of innings from here on out and the latter four each give up 5 more earned runs than Gonzalez, then Gio probably finishes 2nd in ERA and 1st in wins. If Gonzalez throws ~2 more innings then Dickey during that period then he wins the ERA title too. Cueto is probably still the most deserving Cy Young winner in this scenario, but I think Gonzalez gets the award.

And Lohse isn't winning the award, so if he beats out Gonzalez in ERA it probably doesn't matter much.
   6. Danny Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:40 PM (#4234216)
Smells like a WAR battle to me (I'm including the Cahill trade too to make it more even)

If you use rWAR looking at the Cahill/Gio trades:

Parker/Milone/Cook: 6.9 WAR
Norris/Cowgill: 0.5 WAR

Gio/Cahill/Breslow: 6.7 WAR
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4234220)
Billy Beane is a genius! Moneyball!! It's 2002 all over again!!

Where's Backlasher? Did Danny just take those stats from a sim league site?

Mike Piazza, bearded wizard, Beahhh Guy, Dan Werr.
   8. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4234225)
The A's won the Cahill trade but I don't see how the Gio trade was great for the A's. Maybe if Derek Norris becomes a really good player but we'll have to wait and see on that. I like Millone but he's as good now as he's going to get, I think, and he's at the team perfectly built to maximize his talent.
   9. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4234226)
Where's Backlasher? Did Danny just take those stats from a sim league site?

Funny how a certain poster doesn't jump into every thread to proclaim Billy Beane spends too much time watching soccer anymore.
   10. Danny Posted: September 12, 2012 at 07:07 PM (#4234240)
It sure is nice being able to talk about the A's without every thread turning into a trial of Beane. Don't #### it up.
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 12, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4234247)
Sorry. You're right. It honestly is nice, I just thought it was kind of funny.
   12. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: September 12, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4234248)
The A's won the Cahill trade but I don't see how the Gio trade was great for the A's. Maybe if Derek Norris becomes a really good player but we'll have to wait and see on that. I like Millone but he's as good now as he's going to get, I think, and he's at the team perfectly built to maximize his talent.

Also remember A.J. Cole who was the highest regarded talent (BA #57 pre-2012) in the trade coming back to the A's.
   13. Willie Mayspedes Posted: September 12, 2012 at 07:25 PM (#4234262)
The A's won the Cahill trade but I don't see how the Gio trade was great for the A's. Maybe if Derek Norris becomes a really good player but we'll have to wait and see on that. I like Millone but he's as good now as he's going to get, I think, and he's at the team perfectly built to maximize his talent.


I started the thread trying to see if the A's had gotten better this year only by trading their best two young starters. Looks like it was close plus they saved money which they actually spent well this year. Moving forward it's Gio vs money + 4th or 5th starter Milone + Suzuki's replacement and two minor league pitchers (TINSTAAP). Too early to judge the Gio trade but it seems pretty ok for both the A's and Nats.

EDIT: At least OK with upside for the A's and good for the Nats
   14. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 12, 2012 at 07:28 PM (#4234264)
It sure is nice being able to talk about the A's without every thread turning into a trial of Beane. Don't #### it up.

Does he still not watch the games?
I was trying to explain to Amazing GF during last night's broadcast that Beane was not Bob Melvin, and was not Scott Hatteberg, and was probably not even watching the game, but then I realized I don't know if that's true anymore.

EDIT: also, BRef WAR seems to seriously underestimate Cespedes' defense. I know he's erratic, but I don't think he's THAT bad.
   15. Squash Posted: September 12, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4234316)
Also remember A.J. Cole who was the highest regarded talent (BA #57 pre-2012) in the trade coming back to the A's.

And Peacock, who while he had a down year was very highly regarded. There was talk about him making the rotation outright out of spring training.
   16. BourbonSamurai Is a Lazy Nogoodnik Posted: September 12, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4234331)
Also remember A.J. Cole who was the highest regarded talent (BA #57 pre-2012) in the trade coming back to the A's.


Right. As the world's only Nats-A's fan, it was a good deal for both teams. The A's needed the depth more, the Nats needed the star arm more. I think both franchises need to be pleased here
   17. Walt Davis Posted: September 12, 2012 at 10:26 PM (#4234362)
Maybe it's the headline writer not the article but it implies the Gio trade is a big reason for the A's success this year but it's clearly not. Milone and Norris combine for about 2 WAR. It's not like they traded Gio for Mike Trout.

The Gio trade might pay off big time in the longterm; the total of all their trades might have paid off big time this year; but the Gio trade did not pay off big time this year.

The A's offense this year is a genuine Frankenstein's monster of guys with 200-400 PA giving them 1.5 WAR and Josh Reddick (whose value turns out to be largely on defense not offense). The pitching staff looks a good bit like that too -- #2 in WAR is Bartolo Colon and the success is largely due to 12 excellent starts from Blackley and 10 from Griffin and 4 from Straily and Anderson delivering 1.3 WAR in just 4 starts.

I don't know who's calling the shots on this pick'n'mix lineup but they're on one hell of a roll picking names out of a hat on the days they're gonna play like All-Stars. :-)
   18. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4234390)
Funny how a certain poster doesn't jump into every thread to proclaim Billy Beane spends too much time watching soccer anymore.


Well in all fairness watching any soccer is watching too much soccer.
   19. Poster Nutbag Posted: September 12, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4234399)
As the world's only Nats-A's fan


We can start a club now!!!!!!
   20. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4234433)
I don't know who's calling the shots on this pick'n'mix lineup but they're on one hell of a roll picking names out of a hat on the days they're gonna play like All-Stars. :-)

They mentioned in a recent broadcast that the A's have used something like 128 different lineups this season.
The players seem to love Bob Melvin, and every move he's made seems to work out.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: September 13, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4234459)
From b-r: 113 defensive lineups, none used more than 4 games so far; 117 differnt batting orders, none more than 4.

More than most no doubt but the O's are at 93/106; the Rays are at 112/132 (that 132 doesn't look right since it's also 132 including pitchers); so it's not outrageous.

Teams rarely have super-stable lineups -- even the Yanks haven't used any single lineup more than 10 times so far. Announcers love to pull this stat out because it makes it sound like the team has overcome chaos when it's really baseball as usual.

Wow, the Cubs have been pretty stable this year with only 70 different defensive lineups. Which makes me realize that the Cubs have actually been quite healthy this year. Imagine how bad we'd be if we'd been hit by the injury bug too. Has there been a single major injury on the Cubs this year? Dempster missed a few starts, Marmol missed some time but that's all I can think of. What a season to waste that good luck on.
   22. Squash Posted: September 13, 2012 at 01:34 AM (#4234461)
The A's offense this year is a genuine Frankenstein's monster of guys with 200-400 PA giving them 1.5 WAR and Josh Reddick (whose value turns out to be largely on defense not offense). The pitching staff looks a good bit like that too -- #2 in WAR is Bartolo Colon and the success is largely due to 12 excellent starts from Blackley and 10 from Griffin and 4 from Straily and Anderson delivering 1.3 WAR in just 4 starts.

I don't mind saying this has been a charmed year and the team is very likely not actually this good. That being said, the All-Star break until now has been quite a ride and Wild Card flags fly forever. Should the team be fortunate enough to win one. Though I'm not sure ESPN is aware yet that the A's are leading the WC standings. It's all Orioles all the time over there. For good reason, it has been a long time. All I will say is thank god the Yankees and the Orioles are in the same division. The A's are essentially 5 up on Tampa with 20 to play.
   23. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: September 13, 2012 at 04:21 AM (#4234481)
5 up on Tampa Bay and 5.5 up on the Angels. If those 2 teams don't make the playoffs, the field is a lot worse on paper....or spreadsheets or wherever games are played these days.
   24. McCoy Posted: September 13, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4234623)
What a season to waste that good luck on.

Plus even Aramis Ramirez has been healthy all year long.

Cubs could have been in the same position as the Phillies if they had tried to win this year.

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