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Tuesday, October 04, 2011

MLB.com: Gutsy Verlander puts Tigers a win from ALCS

And after eight innings from [Verlander] in a 5-4 win, the Tigers are a win away from taking this AL Division Series with a 2-1 lead.

Minutes after Brett Gardner’s game-tying two-run double in the seventh inning brought a Verlander gem to a halt, Delmon Young’s second home run of the series gave him the lead back. Verlander didn’t waste it, working through the middle of the Yankees order. He had another two-out walk, the flaw that began New York’s tying rally an inning earlier, yet recovered to overpower Mark Teixeira on a popout to the left side.

NTNgod Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:39 AM | 60 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: game recaps, tigers, yankees

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   1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 04, 2011 at 05:02 AM (#3950408)
There is something poetic about the Yankees' season riding on the shoulders of the guy who was public enemy number one in the Bronx this summer.
   2. RollingWave Posted: October 04, 2011 at 05:51 AM (#3950414)
2006 all over ehe... (the Red Sox also didn't make the playoff that year right? so it really IS dejavu)
   3. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 11:18 AM (#3950445)
AJ had a less-than-horrible September (4.30 ERA) so perhaps he'll surprise. Still feel better about running him out there than I did when the Yankees turned to Jaret Wright in this same situation in 2006.
   4. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 04, 2011 at 11:32 AM (#3950448)
It's not like the yanks have played bad. Sometimes, you just get beat. That's baseball, Susan.
   5. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 04, 2011 at 11:58 AM (#3950454)
I declare today AJ Burnett day! Let it ring across this great land!
   6. Sam M. Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:10 PM (#3950461)
We are one Texas and one Detroit win away from the first ALCS since 2006 without a team from the AL East. I think that's at least mildly noteworthy.
   7. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:17 PM (#3950464)
It isn't as though Porcello is some kind of pitching wizard, unfortunately.
   8. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:22 PM (#3950466)
The thing with Burnett is that if he pitches great and wins, it's kind of hilarious, and if he melts down, it's hilarious in a totally different way. This is great theater.

Happy AJ Burnett day everyone!
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:23 PM (#3950467)
It isn't as though Porcello is some kind of pitching wizard, unfortunately.
Porcello's righty hittability against all the lefties and switch-hitters in the Yankee lineup looks like a really bad matchup to me. Of course, AJ Burnett against people holding bats in their hands also looks like a bad matchup. So, I expect lots and lots of runs.
   10. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:26 PM (#3950468)
Burnett's MO seems to be that he'll pitch just fine for a few innings, and then he'll struggle to get through one and get pulled from the game.

Hopefully Girardi manages this like it's an elimination game rather than a regular season game, and is ready to pull Burnett as soon as he has two guys on base.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:45 PM (#3950476)
If you were wondering about the strikezone last night, take a look at Brooks Baseball, and select Balls and Strikes, Verlander vs. LHB. There are abot 8 or 9 blatant balls called as strikes. CC got about 5.

Horrible umpiring.
   12. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:52 PM (#3950482)
To at least some extent, Porcello has been there before -- pitching very well in Game 163 2009, before Leyland inexplicably and stupidly pulled him after only 5.2. And A-Rod (**), Tashera, and Swisher are all spitting the bit in the postseason again.

In 2006, in an essentially identical situation, the Yankees went meekly to Jeremy Bonderman.

(**) Please don't start with his aggregate or cherrypicked postseason numbers. His bat's slow and when he slumps in the postseason, it generally takes him a long time to come out of it. And "a long time" has been known to be ... "never," see, e.g., 2006.
   13. Fat Al Posted: October 04, 2011 at 12:52 PM (#3950483)
There is something poetic about the Yankees' season riding on the shoulders of the guy who was public enemy number one in the Bronx this summer.


A Charles Bukowski poem.
   14. bunyon Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:06 PM (#3950489)
(**) Please don't start with his aggregate or cherrypicked postseason numbers. His bat's slow and when he slumps in the postseason, it generally takes him a long time to come out of it. And "a long time" has been known to be ... "never," see, e.g., 2006.

So he has to be great in every game? Every series? If so, no one, even Captain Clutch* himself, meets the criteria.



* Another GIDP and strike out with tying run on second to end the game, if we're counting.
   15. DKDC Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:14 PM (#3950497)
This is shaping up to be quite a glorious seven days of baseball.
   16. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:32 PM (#3950509)
And A-Rod (**), Tashera, and Swisher are all spitting the bit in the postseason again.

Do you even watch the games? because A-Rod, had, by far, the best AB of the game last night against Verlander in the 8th. Verlander was at ~107 pitches and going all out, throwing multiple pitches that were PitchFX clocked at 100+ (including a 101.0!). A-Rod fouls off the strikes, looks at the balls, works the count, and not only earns the walk but forces Verlander to burn a bunch of pitches in the process, guaranteeing that Leyland can't send him out for the 9th, which in turn (a) gives the Yanks a punchers chance against Valverde and (b) forces Valverde to struggle through another crappy outing, burning pitches and making him likely to be less effective today (Valverde's velocity was down last night, so he's already showing signs of fatigue).

it was a huge at bat. Amazing how "slow bat" A-Rod could stand tough against 101 mph pills while the sainted captain clutch couldn't do #### with Valverde.
   17. cmd600 Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:33 PM (#3950512)
Not that Verlander isn't great, but how is putting your team behind early and giving up the lead late "gutsy"? He was decent enough last night, but without Soriano's meatball, is there any narrative at all on him today?
   18. JustDan Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:39 PM (#3950518)
zop, that AB was great, but ARod is 0/10 with 3 walks this series.
   19. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:43 PM (#3950519)
zop, that AB was great, but ARod is 0/10 with 3 walks this series.


Repeat after me: in small sample sizes, BABIP noise overwhelms everything.

He has 3K in 13PA. He has 3BB. This is not Soriano 2003. It's 13 PA. For chrissake.
   20. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:44 PM (#3950520)
So you have a heroic, improbable game tying rally against the best pitcher in baseball thanks to a big hit by your balsa-wood swinging, slap-hitting left fielder scoring your two slowest runners....and after that miracle, with the game tied int he 7th and the best reliever in baseball fully rested in your pen you...

bring back Rafael Soriano for his second inning of work?!

Fire Girardi. Please. Not because they are going to lose...that can happen to anyone in a five game series...but because he sucks.
   21. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:51 PM (#3950525)
Not that Verlander isn't great, but how is putting your team behind early and giving up the lead late "gutsy"? He was decent enough last night, but without Soriano's meatball, is there any narrative at all on him today?


When someone wins, and you don't quite know how he won, but he seems to have put in a lot of effort to do it, he was gutsy. ESPN is going with "crafty".
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 01:56 PM (#3950528)
So you have a heroic, improbable game tying rally against the best pitcher in baseball thanks to a big hit by your balsa-wood swinging, slap-hitting left fielder scoring your two slowest runners....and after that miracle, with the game tied int he 7th and the best reliever in baseball fully rested in your pen you...

bring back Rafael Soriano for his second inning of work?!


Wow! Glad I turned it off. I would have been enraged.

Now I don't care so much.
   23. Lassus Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:01 PM (#3950531)
Fire Girardi. Please. Not because they are going to lose...that can happen to anyone in a five game series...but because he sucks.

Man, you guys have given him less Championship Grace Period than Tito was given. That's a feat.
   24. Spivey Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:01 PM (#3950532)
Not that Verlander isn't great, but how is putting your team behind early and giving up the lead late "gutsy"? He was decent enough last night, but without Soriano's meatball, is there any narrative at all on him today?

I would say throwing as many pitches as he did, as well as he did, with his weird schedule because of the rainout, was pretty impressive. I was impressed watching it, anyways.
   25. aleskel Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:02 PM (#3950533)
bring back Rafael Soriano for his second inning of work?!

Fire Girardi. Please


yes, and replace him with a manager who will make bullpen decisions that we all agree with, as soon as we discover who that is!
   26. JustDan Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:09 PM (#3950539)
Repeat after me: in small sample sizes, BABIP noise overwhelms everything.
and pointing to 1 AB is even a smaller sample size. Hey, I'm not arguing that his bat is slow or whatever, but his results have been awful.
   27. Lassus Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:15 PM (#3950546)
Not that Verlander isn't great, but how is putting your team behind early and giving up the lead late "gutsy"? He was decent enough last night, but without Soriano's meatball, is there any narrative at all on him today?

Yes, he didn't throw 70+ pitches in three innings like Captain Cheeseburger
   28. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:17 PM (#3950547)
"Does this uniform make me look fat?"

"Yes, CC, it does."
   29. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:20 PM (#3950551)
With 13 PA, you should watch the individual PAs and not rely on BB or K rates, either.
   30. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:24 PM (#3950555)
Not that Verlander isn't great, but how is putting your team behind early and giving up the lead late "gutsy"? He was decent enough last night, but without Soriano's meatball, is there any narrative at all on him today?



I think what Verlander did last night was not so pitch great, but pitch long. To get 8 solid innings was a big boost. Obviously the result drives the narrative but that's always the case. If CC had pitched brilliantly and won 4-0 I think you would have seen a lot of "Verlander was valiant in defeat" kind of stuff while C.C. would be getting praised to the heavens (appropriately so).
   31. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:45 PM (#3950571)
Not that Verlander isn't great, but how is putting your team behind early and giving up the lead late "gutsy"? He was decent enough last night, but without Soriano's meatball, is there any narrative at all on him today?


If he doesn't have the regular season he had this year, is he even the story of the game? He gave up four runs. He wasn't exactly Don Larsen out there.

I thought for sure the Tigers were going to blow it. The vibe just felt prime for a Yankee comeback. Valverde's bravado, the fact he was missing up his entire outing, the patience of Yankee hitters, the heads up stolen base by Nunez. Young Jeter would have made it so!
   32. The Original SJ Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:48 PM (#3950574)
AJ had a less-than-horrible September (4.30 ERA) so perhaps he'll surprise. Still feel better about running him out there than I did when the Yankees turned to Jaret Wright in this same situation in 2006.

Last year Burnett was fine, but Girardi rode him far too long. Leaving him in until it was too late, which is what he did with CC yesterday
   33. The Original SJ Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:49 PM (#3950576)
bring back Rafael Soriano for his second inning of work?!


Soriano was amazing getting out of CC's mess the previous inning. His real mistake was sending CC out to start the inning.
   34. cmd600 Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:55 PM (#3950582)
When someone wins, and you don't quite know how he won, but he seems to have put in a lot of effort to do it, he was gutsy. ESPN is going with "crafty".


But we know how "he" won. He had quite a bit of help from his teammates, and from the other dugout making a questionable decision. Again, not to say that he wasn't pretty good, but that's lucky. As I finally looked around a bit to make sure I wasn't the only one crazy enough to think like this, from Posnanski: "Since 2001, pitchers who go eight innings and give up four runs in the regular season are 44-86. . . In the history of the postseason, before Verlander, pitchers who allowed four runs in eight innings were — get ready for it — 1-14."

If CC had pitched brilliantly and won 4-0 I think you would have seen a lot of "Verlander was valiant in defeat" kind of stuff


I'm doubting this. It's possible, but I don't remember many examples of pitchers recieving a lot of praise after losing a playoff game.
   35. AROM Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:01 PM (#3950586)
Today I'd plan on Rivera pitching the 8th and 9th, Robertson the 6th and 7th, and use everyone else on my staff to get through the first 5 as best as they can.

So far Rivera has thrown 3 pitches in this series to record one out and "save" a 9-3 ballgame.
   36. Lassus Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:05 PM (#3950588)
"Since 2001, pitchers who go eight innings and give up four runs in the regular season are 44-86. . . In the history of the postseason, before Verlander, pitchers who allowed four runs in eight innings were — get ready for it — 1-14."

Good stuff.
   37. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:09 PM (#3950589)
I'm doubting this. It's possible, but I don't remember many examples of pitchers recieving a lot of praise after losing a playoff game.

He'd at least get credit for "being a horse" and "saving the bullpen".
   38. SoSH U at work Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:31 PM (#3950607)
"Since 2001, pitchers who go eight innings and give up four runs in the regular season are 44-86


That seems almost impossible, considering the run-scoring environment of the past 10 years. There were a hell of a lot more wins posted by pitchers who yielded four runs and pitched fewer than 8 innings.

I wonder what made the 8-inning, 4-run outing so likely to end in a loss. I also wonder how many were in the AL.
   39. AROM Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:43 PM (#3950619)
That does seem surprising. We're talking runs, not earned runs, right? A 4.50 run average over the last 10 years is an above average performance. Hard to see how it results in such a poor record.
   40. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:49 PM (#3950628)
That seems almost impossible, considering the run-scoring environment of the past 10 years. There were a hell of a lot more wins posted by pitchers who yielded four runs and pitched fewer than 8 innings.

I wonder what made the 8-inning, 4-run outing so likely to end in a loss. I also wonder how many were in the AL.


That's what I thought too. Using BBRefPI I got 82-139 for teams with pitchers going 8IP/4R since 2001 which is frankly a lot less than I would have expected.
   41. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:49 PM (#3950629)
"Since 2001, pitchers who go eight innings and give up four runs in the regular season are 44-86

Did he mean "give up exactly four runs" or "give up four or more runs"?
   42. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#3950632)
So you have a heroic, improbable game tying rally against the best pitcher in baseball thanks to a big hit by your balsa-wood swinging, slap-hitting left fielder scoring your two slowest runners....and after that miracle, with the game tied int he 7th and the best reliever in baseball fully rested in your pen you...

bring back Rafael Soriano for his second inning of work?!
I think it's particularly shocking that the Yankee bullpen struggled - they were all so well rested!
   43. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:52 PM (#3950635)
That's what I thought too. Using BBRefPI I got 82-139 for teams with pitchers going 8IP/4R since 2001 which is frankly a lot less than I would have expected.
I think there might be some selection bias with pitchers who throw exactly 8 innings - that's a complete game for a visiting loser. I wonder what the numbers look like if you count only home games for the 8 IP / 4 R starters.

EDIT: yup, selection bias is suggested by the H/R split. It's 47-62 when the home SP throws 8 IP / 4 R, and 35-77 on the road. It's still worse than you'd expect, but not as bad.
   44. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:56 PM (#3950640)
I got 82-139 for teams with pitchers going 8IP/4R since 2001 which is frankly a lot less than I would have expected.

that's the TEAM's record in those games--for the pitcher his own self, I get 62-120 in decisions for 4 runs total, and 48-98 for 4 earned runs
   45. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:56 PM (#3950641)
So you have a heroic, improbable game tying rally against the best pitcher in baseball thanks to a big hit by your balsa-wood swinging, slap-hitting left fielder scoring your two slowest runners....and after that miracle, with the game tied int he 7th and the best reliever in baseball fully rested in your pen you...

bring back Rafael Soriano for his second inning of work?!


Yup, Clearly Soriano should have been taken out after the 6th, so that Robinson could have pitched the seventh and a little of the eighth, Mo come on for four, and when the Yankees didn't score they'd try Hughes or Ayala in the tenth and everyone would be praising Girardi's bullpen management.
   46. AROM Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:58 PM (#3950642)
Should have guessed this sooner - there's always selective sampling behind seemingly strange results. The numbers I got on PI are a bit higher - 59-108, with 36 no-decisions.

In this case, pitchers who threw 8 inning complete games make up 60 of those losses. These guys were losing on the road, otherwise some of them might have removed themselves from the sample by pitching past the 8th inning.
   47. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:59 PM (#3950644)
I think there might be some selection bias with pitchers who throw exactly 8 innings - that's a complete game for a visiting loser. I wonder what the numbers look like if you count only home games for the 8 IP / 4 R starters.

BINGO--in that 48-98 record of pitchers with exactly 8 IP and exactly 4 ER allowed, there were 56 complete game losses

EDIT: coke to AROM
   48. nick swisher hygiene Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:00 PM (#3950649)
Look, Soriano had thrown 8 pitches in the 6th. You bring in D-Rob right there, even if he goes two (not a lock with his high-pitch inning tendencies) and then Soriano's giving up the bomb in the 8th or 9th instead of the 7th.

In modern baseball, to win a certain type of ballgame requires your 3rd best reliever getting the job done. Soriano didn't. This one is on CC, the home plate ump, and Soriano before it's on Girardi (and yes, I thought he made a terrible decision bringing CC out to start the 6th.)

Edit: Coke to the Mayor!
   49. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:01 PM (#3950650)
that's the TEAM's record in those games--for the pitcher his own self, I get 62-120 in decisions for 4 runs total, and 48-98 for 4 earned runs


Yup, realized that afterwards. Doesn't really change the fact that it surprises me though. If you asked me what I thought a team would do when their starter went 8 innings with 4 runs allowed over the past decade I would have definitely given a number north of a .500 record.
   50. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:06 PM (#3950656)
Soriano was amazing getting out of CC's mess the previous inning. His real mistake was sending CC out to start the inning.
He also has a very well-established reputation for not being good in his second inning of work. You'd think that would be in the binder somewhere.
   51. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:10 PM (#3950664)
He was probably tired from pitching last Tuesday. Girardi should have let him rest.
   52. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:19 PM (#3950676)
So far Rivera has thrown 3 pitches in this series to record one out and "save" a 9-3 ballgame.


I don't quibble with this at all - it's a fair characterization of what happened that day.

But thirty years from now, I'll look back on games like that as an emblem of the Mariano experience. It was like the rest of the bullpen that night was unreliable kids, and Mo came in, threw three perfect pitches, and restored order again in the universe. He didn't earn any statistical anything (well, I guess his ERA went down a scoche), and it certainly wasn't really high-leverage. But if you believe that sometimes there's momentum in a game, Rivera turned that right around.
   53. AROM Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:27 PM (#3950685)
After last Wednesday, I shouldn't be so quick to dismiss what kind of leads the Yankee bullpen can blow when Mo sits.
   54. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:38 PM (#3950705)
The thing with Burnett is that if he pitches great and wins, it's kind of hilarious, and if he melts down, it's hilarious in a totally different way. This is great theater.

Happy AJ Burnett day everyone!


It's the gift that keeps on giving!
   55. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:42 PM (#3950708)
To add further to the selection bias issue, it might also be the case that pitchers with 4 runs allowed are more likely to get left in when behind, to give them a shot at the 'W'. Whereas pitchers who have given up 4 runs, but have the lead are more likely to get pulled after 6 or 7. Plus oush button bullpens dictate that you go to the setup man in that situation unless the lead is > 3.
   56. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:42 PM (#3950709)
After last Wednesday, I shouldn't be so quick to dismiss what kind of leads the Yankee bullpen can blow when Mo sits.


Thanks, really. You know, the twitching had finally stopped for a little while there.
   57. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 04, 2011 at 04:46 PM (#3950713)
Hopefully Girardi manages this like it's an elimination game rather than a regular season game, and is ready to pull Burnett as soon as he has two guys on base.


Get ready for 5th inning Mo...
   58. phatj Posted: October 04, 2011 at 05:28 PM (#3950759)
A pitcher who has already given up four runs by the eighth is generally unlikely to pitch the eighth inning (especially in the NL). So a lot of those losses probably come from guys who had given up 3 or fewer through seven and had a lead, then cough up the lead in the eighth.
   59. The Original SJ Posted: October 04, 2011 at 07:11 PM (#3950876)
e was probably tired from pitching last Tuesday. Girardi should have let him rest.

You made this joke before, in this very thread. It was sad then too.
   60. Something Other Posted: October 05, 2011 at 03:34 AM (#3951941)
We are one Texas and one Detroit win away from the first ALCS since 2006 without a team from the AL East. I think that's at least mildly noteworthy.
And devoutly to be wished.

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