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Also, where does Alonso play? Are the Padres planning on moving him or Rizzo to LF? Do they now move one of the two for another piece? Playing either in LF sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, and they don't have a DH spot to hide one of them in.
Still, if we have to judge this right now (which is of course stupid), I call it a win for SD. One can certainly envision it working out for Cincy, though. Latos is really good, and he only has two years of service time. And there are question marks about everyone SD got: Volquez has a bad injury record and really only has the one good year, Alonso as described, Grandal is a catcher and they develop oddly, Boxberger is a reliever with one good year out of two in the minors. With four guys, though, I think SD has put the odds in its favor. If both Alonso and Grandal become quality regulars, it's tough to argue with that, and Volquez/Boxberger give them some "trade win" possibilities even beyond that. And naturally, Latos is not going to put up the same raw statline in Cincy as he did in SD, and SD will have a relatively easier time finding someone who at least approaches that statline.
Also, SD now has to trade Anthony Rizzo, and get something good for him at that. Playing Alonso somewhere besides 1B would waste most of his value.
Home: .635
Away: .637
His whip and strikeout numbers are almost identical and he's actually pitched more innings on the road than at home.
i think boxberger is just a guy and alonso isn't great, though his OBP-heavy statline should be tailor-made for petco. grandal looks very good, but cinci has mesoraco. volquez is a lottery ticket, but with latos going in, he's really not much of a loss to cinci going out.
it's a good deal for san diego--and it's a good deal for the players who are going to san diego--and if cincinnati really thinks they're in a position to make the playoffs, they're not losing much immediate production.
Seems like they'd do better to re-flip Alonso to someone else, given that he's hugely overrated and not nearly as good a prospect as Rizzo.
I think it's worth the risk given where they are.
Seems like they'd do better to re-flip Alonso to someone else, given that he's hugely overrated and not nearly as good a prospect as Rizzo.
What's so great about Rizzo?
Rizzo's mLB stat lines by wRC+ are A+:120,123, AA: 120, AAA 149 (with a .369 BABIP)
Alonso's are A+: 153, AA: 134, 121, AAA: 125,131
Alonso has a much better K-rate, and a similar BB-rate. Rizzo's advantage is ISO, and if a hitter is going to develop anything, it's power.
I'd flip either one, maybe to TB, if I could get a good young arm.
Of course I still think Jocketty should have dealt Votto for a package of prospects and put Alonso at first base. The Reds could have hopefully saved enough money to lock down Phillips for another four years and extended their window for contention by a few years.
I echo the consensus here. Seeing the headline my first though was, "Wow, nice move by the Reds to acquire Latos. They could be contenders in the Central." But giving up Volquez, Alonso, and others seems like an awfully high price. Still a decent shot to be a win-win, though.
He made the majors and was embarrassed. 30.1% K-rate. 141/281/242 line. 59 wRC+. Only 153 PAs, sure. But still ugly.
I don't think that's a point in his favor. If you stuck Alonso in MLB straight out of the draft, I doubt he does any worse.
More like 2 yrs. 4 month.
Alonso in a similarly small sample (98 PAs) went nuts. 330/398/545 160 wRC+. 21.4% K-%, 10.2 BB-%.
If i had to guess, I'd say Alonso's the better hitter right now. Similar minor league numbers, much better contact skills, similar BB-skills, and wasn't embarrassed by MLB pitching.
Maybe Rizzo has more upside b/c of age. But I think that's limited by the poor contact skills. Guys who K 20% of the time in the low minors worry me.
The Pads get a lot of guys that can fill holes and help them achieve their goal of fielding a young low payroll team. I don't really get them. I get the A's and the Rays are trying to keep costs low because of a bad ballpark, but the taxpayers of San Diego built the Pads a gorgeous stadium downtown in a beautiful area and this is how they repay the fans. The NL West is wide open and the NL frankly is kinda wide open too. You put AGone and Latos on this team and add a FA like Jose Reyes - that isn't a contender? Padres fans should be irate.
Totally disagree. Spend the money on Votto, not Phillips. But, they can afford both.
Which isn't to say it's not a good deal for the Reds; how often can you get high-quality, low-cost, well-proven major league starting pitching on the trade market? That has to be seen as a good, solid return on your minor league assets -- and a strong endorsement of the quality of the Reds' farm system that it has the kind of quality and depth that it can produce guys like Mesoraco and Cozart to help the Reds directly, and these guys to trade. Impressive.
Well, this might turn out to be true, but I think a young and healthy starter that strikes out one per inning is probably just about worth his weight in gold. Any team would be real happy to land Latos, and I think the Reds have a solid chance of winning the trade.
While each of these parts may be intriguing, they were traded to one of the better young pitchers in the game who was not a product of Petco and is cost controlled. I think this is a deal that makes sense for both sides.
The Jocketty should pay market price for him.
I'd offer him a 6/150 extension right now and make him think.
Injury fears?
Injury fears?
I think it's pretty simple - every one of those teams that traded those guys were in tough financial spots and didn't consider themselves contenders. (I assume you mean the first Garza trade, although the second obviously qualifies for the financial provision.) They're young pitchers, which means everyone thinks they're injury prone, yet you can still get a lot for them and they're about to get expensive. The day Boston starts moving Jon Lester for prospects, or the Angels move Weaver, then we'll know something's up.
I mean the Garza to the Cubs deal.
I think this is probably right, although the Haren (to the Angels) and Ubaldo deals don't quite fit that theory.
Also, why wasn't this done before? Obviously we've had teams in tight financial conditions with good young pitchers before.
There's also the portion of the year that Rizzo spent at AAA, where he was one of the best hitters in the minors. .331/.404/.652 as a 21-year-old in AAA. Could Alonso have done that as a 21-year-old at that level? Nothing in his record suggests he would've been capable of it.
Alonso's going to be 25 next year, and his single-season high for HR is 17. For a power-hitting first base prospect, he hasn't shown much in-game power. Maybe he can rely on walks and OBP, and be the next Daric Barton. That sure worked out well for Daric Barton, didn't it?
So it's safe to say you have mixed feelings on it.
Rizzo will be in the minors. Alonso is a 1B, not a LF.
Grandal will be in the minors. Hundley will be starting catcher.
Four teams had a package the Pads were willing to work with - Reds had the best offer.
Perhaps the Padres hope to have the same luck that they had in acquiring Adrian Gonzalez from the Rangers. Although Gonzalez was well regarded as a prospect, I recall that the prospect scouting reports at the time projected him as a line drive hitting 1st baseman rather than a HR hitter. Gonzalez never hit more than 18 HRs in a season in the minors. Gonzalez's minor league career OBP and SLG was .365 and .448, respectively. Before Gonzalez was traded to the Padres at age 24, he had two brief seasons at the major league level for the Rangers which were not overly impressive and in which he showed almost no power. I'm not saying that this means Alonso will turn into Gonzalez, but I do see some analogies.
The fact that they're so highly valued may be the reason that it's happening. Teams know that trading them can bring back a significant return so letting a good young pitcher go is an easy way to gain multiple players to fill holes.
You seem to have a problem with my liking two teams. Just don't cuss me out and call me a fat troll and we'll be fine, though. ;-
And not entirely. I think Jocketty sees it this way:
Pujols is gone
Fielder may well be gone
Braun may miss a chunk of season
The Pirates are still working on it and are not there
The Cubs will probably move methodically under the new management team and not make a big 2012 push
He has Mesoraco and Votto
Adding it up, Jocketty figures this is a good moment to go for a division title, and Latos can help him do that--cheaply.
I am skeptical that a division title will keep Votto in town, however.
I don't think a division title will keep Votto in town, but an increase in revenues might. The fans were slow to respond to the 2010 division crown after a decade of terrible ownership and baseball. Maybe they would be more willing to come out to the stadium if it looks like the success might stick around a while?
I don't know anything, but I sense there is something lurking between him and the Reds and the boy is carrying some kind of ill will. Grudge is too strong a word.
Anyway, that boy has set his jaw and made a plan. And that plan doesn't seem to include the Reds.
And that plan doesn't seem to include the Reds.Testing the market doesn't have to mean ruling out the Reds. It just has to mean the Reds need to step up and be market participants.
True. But if you listen the boy that ain't his underlying message.
It's more along the lines of, "F*ck these f*cking guys, I am SO leaving this f*cking place"
Others reds fans I wouldn't lend much credence. Too many think cincy is a great town for baseball.
He is sure is one clumsy guy with a glove on his hand.
Reds fan here, and I agree with you. I think Joey would rather go somewhere else all things equal, so the Reds are going to have to match the dollar amount and show that they mean business when it comes to winning.
As a left-fielder, he's a mighty fine DH.
As a first baseman, he's passable. If the Padres play him there, his defense won't detract from his value, and his offensive value (as a line drive, all-fields hitter in Petco) will be optimized. Alonso will be a very fine player for San Diego.
Can you blame a man wanting to get out of a town 20 years behind the times?
I think the "hate" is a reaction to the (over) enthusiasm for him. He hit exceptionally well in the majors this year, but that performance far exceeded anything he did in the minors. After the trade, I e-mailed a Reds fan I work with and he called Alonso a better hitter than Bruce. There's just nothing there to support that kind of opinion, other than the 83 ridiculous PAs he had against righties at the end of 2011. And even putting up those numbers, he struck out 17 times...
Because those guys are now SO valuable that you can get multiple high level prospects for them - the other current gold standard of player on the market these days.
Harvey, interesting. What are your thoughts on why he feels this way? Is it because Cinci's a "town 20 years behind the times"? Dusty Baker? Wants big time smoozing and free-agent cash?
I was thinking about this, but it's sort of a microeconomic puzzle. Does it matter how much they're valued? If they are considered less valuable, then teams will be more willing to move them for lesser packages. If more valuable, teams will want to hold onto them more, but other teams will want them even more, and offer bigger packages.
He has had that rep since high school. I think he might have been kicked off his high school team. Something happened that made Oklahoma pull their scholarship offer from him, I believe.
Understandable from the Reds' perspective: they couldn't afford to risk a rotation slot on Volquez, and as good as Grandal might turn out to be, Mesoraco looks just as good. A healthy Latos gives them a reliable 2+ win pitcher with a considerably higher ceiling, a decent front three in Latos, Cueto, and Leake, and should push them into the 85+ pythag win range even if the rest of the club treads water. Don't know that I'd be comfortable putting all my eggs in one basket, particularly a 24-year-old pitcher, but Jocketty has never lacked a willingness to make gutsy trades.
He's a legitimate 1-2, top of the rotation pitcher.
I wish the A's could've gotten something like Alonso/Grandal for Cahill, or Gio even.
Take those numbers with a big grain of salt. The PCL and Tucson are hitter's havens. Tucson is dry and at a pretty decent altitude; it's not like Death Valley, below sea level, but at 2,643 feet. The balls fly there!
Not even a whiff as to why
Everyone in Cincy adores the guy and sings his praises
You think Grandal is ready to start at the ML level? I'd like to see what he does at AAA for a full season before Hundley gets moved.
Doubtful as Byrnes was not in the organization when that trade was made (Wow, has there been a lot of turnover in the Padres Front Office in the past few years!). The rest of your post was right on. Hope Alonso develops along those lines!
But it is a conservative, kind of provincial town--not a huge night life or media hub, obviously. Hot in the summer, humid as hell, pretty cold in the winter. Every team that plays there, even 35 years later, plays in the shadow of The Machine. My guess is that Latos won't like it there.
My contact with the Reds comes from checking out games on MLB Extra Innings, so I have never heard Votto interviewed on the radio. Eveything I have heard him say, however, indicates he is going to test the market. Can't speak to whether he hates Cincinnati per se.
Actually, that isn't so far off.
I'm kinda surprised the Reds gave up Volquez. It's not like they only need one starting pitcher. Right now their rotation looks like Latos, Cueto, Leake, Bailey and Chapman with Wood in the wings. That doesn't sound all that great to me.
This pretty much sums it up for me. The Reds gave up a lot, but none of the 4 guys going to SD have a high ceiling to the point where this would look really bad for Cincinnati in 2-3 years. Alonso and Grandal more than likely will become quality contributors, but not the type of people you build a team around. With the NL central up the grabs, and the only real hole this team has is a front-line starter, Jockety filled that problem without sacrificing anything off the 12-13 team.
When I first heard about this trade I was a little nervous about a pitcher moving from Petco to GABP, 2 extremes on the spectrum. Digging into Lato's numbers, it appears Latos is for real. A 24 year old pitcher under team control for 4 more years, with his kind of peripherals is an amazing addition for any team.
I'm so glad Volquez is gone. Now I don't have to be reminded about Josh Hamilton every 5 days. I also don't have to wonder if he'll ever find the strike zone again.
St. Louis seems like a midwestern city trying to be an East Coast city. Cincinnati seems like a midwestern city trying to be a southern city.
Its not great, but its pretty good (could be great if Cueto doesn't regress too much and Chapman can become a full time starter and come close to his potential), and Volquez wasn't going to make it "great."
This would be roughly more than what Matt Kemp got. (2 years less, and only $10 million less than Kemp's overall deal). This would be an overpay.
ESPN article from August, 2010.
TFA discusses the effort Latos made to change his attitude and the way he related to teammates before the 2010 season began, not sure if there are any incidents after that, or if his earlier reputation is still dogging him ...
It's gotta be the chili. That Skyline ####'s an abomination ...
(I'm not aware of any solid reason why it should play a role in how we evaluate Latos now, however.)
Holy shat, I had no idea Baseball Prospectus existed as far back as '99.
Agreed. Good God, you're gonna add cinnamon and chocolate and then pour it on spaghetti? That is a gross enough sequence of events as it is, but then a whole city has the nerve to call this perverted concoction "chili"!?!? Ugh.
I laughed.
He's a perfectly fine second- or third-tier hitting prospect (like Mitch Moreland, say), but in trade discussions this offseason he's been treated like a future impact bat, purely on the strength of a hot streak during a cup of coffee at the end of the season. People are ignoring the evidence of his minor league career and seeing what they want to see.
He's also a stupid pickup for the Padres, who have lots of holes and just spent their best trade chip to get a B grade 1B prospect when they already have a significantly younger and better prospect in Rizzo AND a palatable youngish veteran stopgap in Kyle Blanks AND a decent upper-minors talent in Matt Clark AND another strong hitting prospect who could be used at the position if necessary in James Darnell. With the exception of Darnell, none of these guys (including Alonso) can play any other positions.
There's still a good chance that this works out for the Padres thanks to Grandal, but it's hard to know what they were thinking by asking for Alonso instead of a player who'd actually make them better.
Latos isn't that yet but if he was and still this cost controlled at the same time the acqusition cost would be even higher .
Looks like a fair trade but risk is of course higher for reds
So Latos threw the ball into the third base coach's chest as a warning that he was going to throw a ball into the third base coach's chest?
Really? St Louis seems more southern than northeastern. We were a slave state and some people have a southern twang in their accent. Hunting and fishing are a lot more popular than skiing and sailing.
Its not great, but its pretty good (could be great if Cueto doesn't regress too much and Chapman can become a full time starter and come close to his potential), and Volquez wasn't going to make it "great."
When I said "not that great" I meant well below average. Volquez wasn't going to make it great, but he would have possibly made it quite a bit better. I also forgot about Arroyo, and he's certainly not going to make it better.
I mean, Yonder Alonso. How great is that?
I'm rooting for the kid to have a long career just so I can get a kick out of hearing him announced for a decade or more.
I've heard people call St. Louis the western most eastern city, and Kansas City the eastern most western city. You can basically use the James Carville saying about Pennsylvania to describe Missouri, it's St. Louis and KC with Alabama in the middle. St. Louis city is more East Coast/Midwest, but as you get farther out into the suburbs I'm guessing it gets more southern like. Missouri is a weird state.
From what I read about the civil war, St Louis was full of immigrants and not at all keen on slavery.
Alonso's minor league numbers are suppressed by a broken hand he suffered in 2009, which may have affected his power. I'm confident that he's a better hitter than Blanks, about on par with Rizzo too. Their lack of contact ability gets exposed to a greater degree in MLB. He's a legit hitter even at 1B (admittedly probably not elite).
Comparing Rizzo and Alonso minor league numbers side by side runs into a massive age relative to level issue
As a hitting prospect Rizzo is far superior ignoring that age difference or minimizing as some are doing is not analisys it is cannot wishcasting
Could Yonder turn out better than Rizzo? Sure he could follow the AGon path while Rizzo takes Marte's
Yeah, it really sucks when there isn't enough crime.
In high school? How do you not get permanently banned from HS sports for that?
Do you have any idea how bad Volquez was last year? OPS+ of 68? Giving up multiple 1st inning runs in seemingly every start. No control, never seemed to care while he was on the field. I'm so glad he's gone.
It's more along the lines of, "F*ck these f*cking guys, I am SO leaving this f*cking place"
I've listened to and read several interviews with Votto and don't sense any hostility by him towards the org. He's fond of Baker and seems to get along with his teammates. But he's been upfront about unwilling to sign away any FA years, so I have no doubt he wants to test the market. I suspect he'd prefer to play in a larger market where a baseball star could be somewhat anonymous, because he is a private man (especially after the depression issues a few years ago).
Non-snarky question: where could Votto go that he'd just blend into the background? If he keeps hitting like this, he'll be just about the best hitter on any team he goes to, and guys like that tend to get noticed.
Pedantic jackass alert.
68 OPS+ is pretty good for a pitcher!
I'd say Toronto would be a great place to fit that bill.
If it weren't for the fact that it's his hometown. If the Lawrie love is any indication a Canadian star would be the exception to the generally low-key Toronto media attitude towards baseball players.
Tampa? He'd probably be the No. 2 star on a team that hasn't exactly captured the public's attention yet.
Of course, when the Longoria-Votto Rays win the World Series, he may lose a little anonymity.
The Yankees. After the novelty of being the new guy wears off, he'd be just another hitter in that lineup, especially if he's just a relatively uninteresting 1B slugger. I live in NYC and no one really talks about Mark Teixeira.
This doesn't make sense to me for one particular reason.
The Cubs have a bunch of payroll coming off the books for 2012. Based on what's being reported it appears that the Darvish posting auction was won by Toronto which leaves Fielder as the lone remaining prime FA on the market. The Cubs could sign Prince and still be below the 2011 payroll level. Getting Rizzo would suggest they aren't acquiring the FA first baseman. It's going to be a rough offseason PR-wise if the Cubs decide to reduce payroll by $30 million in 2012.
Generally speaking? No... but ownership and marketing are going to be concerned about plummeting attendance and so forth if the Cubs are viewed as giving up in 2012.
By Cot's here is the payroll the last three seasons:
2011: $134,004,000
2010: $144,359,000
2009: $134,809,000
My quick analysis (which may be completely wrong, BTW) is that Chicago has about $73 million on existing contracts and if I replace Garza with a league minimum guy and ballpark some arb awards, the Cubs payroll obligations are below $95 million. That seems to be a tough sell to the fanbase when C.J. Wilson, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Yu Darvish were all available on the market.
Maybe it was more about how other teams valued Latos rather than part of some larger plan to pass on contention in favor of some other time frame.
At any rate, Jim Bowden was reporting it and now Peter Gammons is saying a Garza/Rizzo deal is unlikely to happen.
They have been crappy and aimless. What they have not done is announced they have no chance to win. The Cubs have had a recent history of placating the fans by purchasing big FAs after bad seasons. They really haven't had a season where they were 1) really bad, 2) failed to add a FA perceived as a star - to provide hope and 3) significantly reduced payroll.
Obviously (1) has happened more than a few times but they have never had (1) and (2), much less (1), (2) and (3) at the same time.
I'm not saying it's a good strategy to follow every losing season with a big signing (that's how the Alfonso Soriano contract happens) but I am saying the Cubs are taking a risk here that they've never really tried before. They are electing to be bad, cheap and have no positive distractions to hide behind. Casual observers who parrot the notion that the Cubs will always sell out don't follow the team and see how carefully the image of a contender is crafted each season.
That assumes that they don't sign a 1B and don't sign any more pitching. I don't realistically see payroll below $100 million with Garza gone and likely above $110 million with Garza.
Well, yes, I'm assuming they are trading Garza in order to start Rizzo at first base.
As for pitching, I have no idea what they plan is there. I'm sure they are not done with the FA market for arms but what expensive pitchers are out there who Chicago might want?
EDIT: Who is the biggest name left out there? Javier Vazquez?
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