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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, July 23, 2012
Ah, the sweet smell of panic in the summertime… The Cubs and Braves have agreed on a trade that will send right-hander Ryan Dempster, the Major League ERA leader, to Atlanta, a source confirmed to MLB.com on Monday.
Young hurler Randall Delgado could potentially head to Chicago in return.
The 35-year-old Dempster, who totes a 2.11 ERA, is signed through the end of this season. The two-time All-Star has won 10 or more games in each of the past four seasons and is 5-4 this year. He has recorded a quality start in 10 of his 15 outings and has surrendered more than four runs in just one appearance.
The Braves signed Delgado, a native of Panama, as an amateur free agent in 2006. The 22-year-old is 4-9 with a 4.42 ERA this season.
Here’s to teams that mortgage their future for flukey half-season rentals!
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I don't get the Dempster deal at all. Is Dempster even that much of a guarantee to be better than Randall Delgado the remainder of this season?
I suppose if I thought the Braves were within reach of serious contention, I might be okay with this. But, as it is, no, I don't like it at all.
Well, from a Cubs fan's perspective, it does help answer the question of "how can the Cubs avoid 100 losses after they trade Dempster?" rather nicely. After all, whether or not he can be expected to be better than Dempster, Delgado certainly can be expected to be better than Casey Coleman!
Well, Dempster does have the best ERA in the NL at the moment, 2.11. Yes there's regression to the mean and random variation and true talent level and all that but .. Dempster does currently have the best ERA in the NL. When a guy has an ERA of 2.11 entering July 23, odds are fairly strong he'll be better the rest of the way than a guy with an ERA of 4.42.
Delgado's having a standard-issue sub-par rookie season. Below-average ERA+, decent strikeout rate, good home run rate, too many walks. And pretty damn good stuff. There's nothing particularly ominous about Delgado's performance while there is every reason to think he'll grow into a solid pitcher.
Dempster's going to fall back a bit, but I doubt he'll plummet. He's a good pitcher and he's performed admirably for the Cubs over the last nine (!) seasons. I'm sure he'll be an upgrade for the Braves. But Dempster's a 35-year-old pitcher entering his free agent year, and the only thing worse than losing him after two months of work would be giving him a Derek Lowe contract entering his age 36 season.
I just don't see how you can give up Delgado for Dempster. Greinke's a different animal: younger, a better chance at dramatically impacting a pennant race, a better chance at serving as a long-term ace. But Delgado for Dempster...ugh.
Since the Cubs moved him to the rotation his ERA+s have been:
154
122
110
80
Before this year's 186 (so far). He has been kind of underrated for having a very nice half decade.
Ryan Dempster's career ERA coming into this season was 4.41.
EDIT: I actually agree with Pops in #16: Dempster's a good pitcher; I was just struck by how close his career ERA was to what Delgado's done so far this year.
Note: Dempster is a 10/5 player
Their being a crappy team with a lot of money, one would hope so.
edit: eg, the guys who posted #16 and #18 while I was, uh, refining my phrasing....
I don't think they think Dempster won't be good, but rather that they gave up a pitcher who is still very young and almost an average MLB starter for half a season of Dempster.
Thanks. That makes sense to me.
Yup. Delgado was called up to pitch in the double header, so he was going back down. Or Jurrjens was. Either way, Dempster replaces the guy pretending to be Jair Jurrjens. Even if he sharply regresses to the mean, he's a nice improvement. Hanson/Hudson/Sheets/Minor/Dempster is the rotation now. Better than it was yesterday, but potentially robbing Peter to pay Paul.
But Delgado is young, decent enough, and has a lot of potential. Meanwhile Dempster is a half-season rental and, because of the new CBA, the Braves won't even get a compensation pick if he leaves for another team next year. It's a short-sighted move given the position the Braves are in.
EDIT: Coke to Dan at #29.
Ryan Dempster's career ERA coming into this season was 4.41.
Yeah, but he had some horrible years early and was a middling reliever for the Cubs for a bit. As you yourself acknowledge, on the whole he's been a good starting pitcher for the last several years.
That was pretty funny.
Mark Bowman. But it was updated at 3:45 EDT to include Dempster's tweet.
EDIT: Completely missed the joke. Thought he was referencing a real MLB.com writer.
The Braves got a decent half-season out of Terry Mulholland, followed by a crappy season. They also got a crappy half-season out of Jose Hernandez. But it's still more than the Cubs got out of Bowie, Nation, and Quevado.
This doesn't really make sense to me. If the Braves are his #2 choice, then (a) that implies that he and the Cubs have already talked about where he'd be willing to go, and (b) it also implies that Atlanta is a place that he'd be willing to go.
Is there any chance of such a thing actually happening? (Actually, sure -- Carlos Lee did it earlier this year with the Dodgers.)
NOT AT ALL FUNNY.
Correct, such that I'd take back all the nice things I said about Dempster upthread.
That was my reaction too. It reminds me a little bit of how the Bears ended up hiring Dick Jauron when Dave McGinnis (I think?) backed out at the last minute because McCaskey scheduled a press conference before they'd agreed on a salary. Agreeing to a trade - and, worse, publicizing it - before you're sure that the player won't veto it seems like such a stupid, easily-avoided mistake.
Dempster's got sort of an odd sense of humor, which I suppose throws another wrinkle into one's reading of all this.
No. My understanding is that while the former team doesn't receive the draft pick, the signing team still loses the draft pick. So from the perspective of the team that signs him, the costs are almost the same. The only change really is you don't end up giving your pick to a team with whom you might be competing against for a playoff spot.
Also, this new change only applies to players traded in the last year of their contract.
To get compensation for a player that plays out the last year of the contract with the same team, there's a qualifying offer system. The team must offer the player a contract whose AAV is the average of the top 125 players.
It's not like you were going to flip Jurrjens for something useful at this point. You have to give to get.
Really? This seems weird. I'm not saying it's incorrect, just strange.
Basically, you don't lose your draft pick unless the player stays the full year with the same club and the club makes the player a qualifying offer.
Doesn't that mean the deal hasn't fallen through yet? There's still a chance of it happening.
Is there any chance of such a thing actually happening? (Actually, sure -- Carlos Lee did it earlier this year with the Dodgers.)
Actually, I believe this happened with the Cubs before. When they were trying to acquire Fred McGriff, he dillied about his no-trade clause for about a month before finally agreeing. The Cubs gave up Jason Smith and Manny Aybar for McGriff's last decent season and a half, so... worth the wait, I guess.
"Braves Go Dempster Diving, End Up With Refuse"
If any of you would like to purchase the rights to use this headline, please paypal me $10
*golf claps*
Damn... I'd have taken Delgado for Dempster... Teheran's stock seems to have slipped precipitously this season (not saying he's no longer a top 50, even top 25, prospect -- but he seems to have developed a serious case of gopheritis) - I might have seen if he could have been had if the Cubs had tossed in a bit more (Darwin Barney to fill in at SS while Simmons is out? a Reed Johnson to caddy for someone?).
Does this mean Dempster is going to be a ######## about his NTC? I mean - I get 10/5 and whatever - but Dempster had recently indicated that the NTC wouldn't be a problem. I can understand that he might not wish to go to say, Oakland or something... but WTF is wrong with Atlanta? Friggin' Fred McGriff wouldn't LEAVE the place for a good month when the shoe was on the other foot.
I believe it was intended to make fun of Bob Nightengale.
I believe McGriff was a Devil Ray at the time.
Although it really would be hilarious if it didn't.
Indeed. Didn't mean to start a new rumor.
Actually, that was Tampa. (Which, if anything, is even less explicable...)
EDIT: Coke to Pops
*applause*
Wheee! Who's gonna get Hanley?
Now that would make the Pirates forget Kevin Towers' phone number right off.
As for this being a panick move to secure a rental, I think we'll see this is the going rate for a decent rental now. More importantly, while Delgado is a great get for the Cubs, he's being vastly overrated by Braves fans. A) he's still a baby and as we've all learned baby pitchers break. B) when he was a top 50 prospect KG and BA agreed his ceiling was good 3 or a slightly below average 2 with a slight chance to get to average or above average 2. Since then he's slipped down the lists, KGs first instinct was that Delgado wouldn't make his top 50 anymore, and I think BAs list had him in the 70s. The Braves didn't trade away 5.5 years of a stud, they probably traded away 2-3 seasons of good value after he reached his ceiling and before he got paid like it.
As for the marginal value of Dempster over Delgado, well for whatever reason the Braves viewed it as Dempster over Jurrjens with no option to just let Delgado start. I would suspect the Braves began to fear that Delgado needed time in the minors and that letting him continue pitching in the majors would slow his development, making him more valuable as a trade chip than a big league starter since the Braves would likely lose one of those good cost controlled years.
I guess this trade has been put to bed, but if it turns out that dempster did torpedo the deal, #### that guy.
Which doesn't make any sense to me as it had been reported Dempster was willing to go to Atlanta.
#### Dempster. "Blindsided"? He knows he's been on the block virtually all season. He knows we're a week before the trade deadline. He ought to ####### know who the 'contenders' are - and seems to have previously blessed going to Atlanta.
WTF?
"Blindsided"? Was he thinking the Cubs ought to get more than Delgado in return? Did he want to see Teheran coming back to Chicago?
Ridiculous.
It's also possible he was only willing to waive his rights if he could negotiate something with the new team and they're in the process of doing that.
I also suppose he could be mad about the rumor if he wanted things kept quiet so he wouldn't have public pressure.
We will just have to wait and see, I guess.
Did Mark Bowman report that also?
In what way? If he becomes more than a minor inconvenience, the Braves just say "#### it" and walk away.
Well, I'm assuming the Braves see him as a potentially critical piece in their ability to make a playoff run (given their current SP problems). And if they don't complete the deal, one of their competitors might. So I think Dempster's got the upper hand here.
Amen... and he continues to pitch for a crappy team that doesn't want him, in front of fans that would substantially prefer to see him flipped for the future, that ISN'T AT ALL interested in resigning him, enters the FA market likely as a compensation eligible FA.
Dempster has always seemed like a fun guy and the Cubs have gotten good value from the contracts they've given him... but they also plucked him off the scrap heap, resurrecting his career.
We're even, ######### -- waive the 10/5 rights... I just hope the idiot trixies can be convinced to boo him unmercifully.
I can understand his being annoyed. But the same time, we've probably all been in situations where we've been treated unideally by our employers, and throwing a tantrum over hurt feelings is never really a very noble reaction.
That said, as Pops noted above, we don't really know what's happening, so maybe Dempster's reaction is being oversold by the media. He deserves the benefit of the doubt until the picture becomes clearer.
Well, first of all -- I don't think we know WHO leaked anything... Every single member of the Cubs management denied the trade immediately. Takes two to tango - and given the continued Jurrjens implosion, seems to me it would be Atlanta with a more vested interest in ensuring to their fans that they've got a solution in the works. I'm not ready to say the Cubs futzed this up.
Second of all -- with complete 10/5 rights -- if there are specific places he doesn't want to go, then I think he ought to make this known to the Cubs. Given that Dempster has ALREADY expressed publicly his willingness to "go to a contender" and waive his 10/5 rights, then -- well -- if there are destinations he wouldn't accept, he really ought to be proactive and let the FO know so they don't waste their time working out a deal that has no chance.
Third -- there have been Dodgers swirling around Dempster for more than a week... why didn't that bother him.
But getting outraged at a guy who's simply exercising a right he's earned is?
I guess I must have missed something. It was stated that he was mad about being blindsided, and may not approve the trade as a result, a feeling I find perfectly reasonable (if he has the right to approve a trade, it should come before it's announced, not after. If the Cubs/Braves can't provide that bit of common courtesy, then #### them). And the reaction to his reaction is precisely why players ought to be pissed about this. Ryan Dempster has a no-trade provision, but woe is him if he actually exercises it (I felt the same way years ago when McGriff got all sorts of #### for not wanting to come to Chicago).
Kind of like a guy taking the 5th. "Well, what does he have to hide? He must be guilty."
There's a quote upthread that said that the Dodgers were Dempster's first choice as a destination (and the Braves were his second choice). It could be that the Dodger rumors had gotten his hopes up that he was going to LA and while he was okay with Atlanta in theory, he was (a little?) disappointed that it ended up being Atlanta instead of LA.
There are now rumors that LA is looking at Garza. Dempster might be wishing (hoping?) that the Cubs could somehow switch those trades and send Garza to the Braves (for Delgado?) and send him to the Dodgers (for Zach Lee, who was the rumored return I'd heard for Garza?).
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